Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

長崎(Nagasaki) governor race next Sunday.  It is a LDP civil war with CDP-DPP clearly backing one side and LDP-KP-JRP backing the other.

The incumbent was elected in 2010 as the LDP-KP backed candidate defeating the DPJ backed candidate. In 2014 and 2018 he won re-election as the mainstream parties consensus candidate defeating a JCP candidate both times.  He wants to run for re-election this time but due to his age, LDP-KP decided to support a new person, a doctor.   The incumbent decides to run anyway with CDP-DPP support while JRP is backing the new LDP-KP backed candidate.  There is a minor independent in the race as well but the race comes down to CDP-DPP backed incumbent vs LDP-KP-JRP backed challenger.  JCP seems to be neutral in all this.

The race will be close but you have to give the edge to the incumbent in races like this even if the LDP-KP-JRP alliance is arrayed against him.

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/election/local/20220212-OYT1T50281/?r=1

Yomiuri poll has CDP-DPP backed incumbent ahead of LDP-JRP backed opposition candidate.  Correction, it seems KP is staying neutral in this one which means the KP base will most likely split or even lean toward the CDP-DPP backed incumbent.  According to the Yomiuri poll, LDP voters are actually breaking in favor of the CDP-DPP backed incumbent.

[jaichind]

Another fun race next Sunday will be the election for mayor of 町田市(Machida) in Tokyo where a 4 way split of the right-wing vote is likely to throw the race to a Center-Left-JCP united front candidate.  The 4-term incumbent had won the last 4 times based on LDP-KP support.  This time around, just like the 長崎(Nagasaki) governor race, the LDP-KP is withholding support to the incumbent due to his age (he is 74.)  A former LDP Tokyo MLA is running and LDP-KP is neutral leading to a split of the LDP-KP vote.  Also, a JRP candidate jumped in as well as a pro-LDP candidate with a defense establishment background.  The Center-Left-JCP formed an alliance to capture the mayor's position.  Also, PNHK is in the fray.

So the candidates are

Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)
pro-LDP-KP incumbent
former LDP MLA
pro-LDP defense estblishment
JRP
PNHK

If I had to guess the result will be something like

Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)    32%
pro-LDP-KP incumbent                                             26%
JRP                                                                         20%
former LDP MLA                                                       14%
pro-LDP defense establishment                                   5%
PNHK                                                                        3%

where the Center-Left-JCP united front wins with a 4 way split of the Center-Right vote.

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA1247B0S2A210C2000000/

For upcoming Upper House elections, the DPP leader is proposing a party member vote on if DPP should be part of a CDP-led alliance in 1- member seat just like in 2019.  In the meantime, it is not clear at all if JCP will be part of this CDP-led alliance in 1- members seats.  I suspect in the end the need to survive will force CDP DPP and JCP to de facto reform the 2016 and 2019 1- member district alliance or face total wipeout in those seats like in 2013.

[jaichind]

https://www.fnn.jp/articles/-/315403

JX poll for 長崎(Nagasaki) governor race has pro-LDP challenger ahead of CDP-DPP backed incumbent which is the opposite of the Yomiuri poll.  Seems like the race is very tight.

[jaichind]

List of poll for 長崎(Nagasaki) governor race which has both incumbent and challenger with leads in 2 polls

It seems JCP is backing the third independent candidate.  Also, the national LDP decided to back the incumbent while the prefecture LDP will back the challenger



So the race is

CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent
Prefectural LDP-JRP
JCP  

[jaichind]

Latest JX PR poll (change from Jan 2022)


LDP    32.5 (-0.3)
KP       5.3 (-0.5)
PNHK   0.9 (+0.2)
JRP    19.2 (+2.5)
DPP     2.5 (+0.5)
CDP   13.9 (-3.8 )
RS       1.5 (--)
SDP     1.9 (-0.6)
JCP      6.5 (+0.5)

JRP gained a lot and CDP lost a lot.  Most likely related to former PM and now CDP MP Naoto Kan claiming that JRP reminds him of NASDP a couple weeks back.

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20220216/k00/00m/010/330000c

Rengo came out for backing CDP and DPP in the upcoming Upper House elections but was opposed to cooperation/support of JCP and JRP.  This does make it hard for CDP to form alliances with JCP and DPP to form alliances with JRP.  Such alliances will have to be covert since Rengo forms the core of the GOTV cadre for both CDP and DPP, especially DPP.

[jaichind]

6 polls have been out for the 長崎(Nagasaki) governor race this Sunday.  3 has CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent ahead and 3 has Prefectural LDP-JRP ahead.

[jaichind]

長崎(Nagasaki) governor voting over.  

NBC exit poll

CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent      47
Prefecture LDP-JRP                                      45
JCP                                                              8



neck-to-neck.  Anyone's race

[jaichind]

長崎(Nagasaki) governor exit poll shows that Prefecture LDP-JRP candidate outperforms in those in the 30s and 40s which is exactly where JRP is strong.  JRP factor is big here if the Prefecture LDP-JRP candidate pulls off an upset.

[jaichind]

長崎(Nagasaki) governor  race (16% in)

CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent      47.3%
Prefecture LDP-JRP                                      42.9%
JCP                                                              9.8%

mostly matching exit polls

[jaichind]

長崎(Nagasaki) governor  race (29% in)

CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent      49.1%
Prefecture LDP-JRP                                      42.9%
JCP                                                              8.1%

So far the CDP-DPP-National LDP-backed incumbent is stronger in rural and suburban areas.  Heavy urban areas are not in or are neck-to-neck.  So I do expect the more JRP heavy urban areas to close the gap but it seems the CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent most likely has this.

[jaichind]

長崎(Nagasaki) governor  race (36% in)

CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent      48.0%
Prefecture LDP-JRP                                      44.4%
JCP                                                              7.6%

Prefecture LDP-JRP candidate closes the gap by having one of his suburban strongholds come in heavy for him with nothing from 長崎市(Nagasaki City).  I think 長崎市(Nagasaki City) will decide this.

[jaichind]

Another fun race next Sunday will be the election for mayor of 町田市(Machida) in Tokyo where a 4 way split of the right-wing vote is likely to throw the race to a Center-Left-JCP united front candidate.  The 4-term incumbent had won the last 4 times based on LDP-KP support.  This time around, just like the 長崎(Nagasaki) governor race, the LDP-KP is withholding support to the incumbent due to his age (he is 74.)  A former LDP Tokyo MLA is running and LDP-KP is neutral leading to a split of the LDP-KP vote.  Also, a JRP candidate jumped in as well as a pro-LDP candidate with a defense establishment background.  The Center-Left-JCP formed an alliance to capture the mayor's position.  Also, PNHK is in the fray.

So the candidates are

Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)
pro-LDP-KP incumbent
former LDP MLA
pro-LDP defense estblishment
JRP
PNHK

If I had to guess the result will be something like

Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)    32%
pro-LDP-KP incumbent                                             26%
JRP                                                                         20%
former LDP MLA                                                       14%
pro-LDP defense establishment                                   5%
PNHK                                                                        3%

where the Center-Left-JCP united front wins with a 4 way split of the Center-Right vote.

The very early result is very bad for the Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP) candidate where he is coming in third.  The election seems to be a neck-to-neck battle between the former LDP MLA and pro-LDP-KP incumbent backed by TPFA.  It seems TPFA-DPP is playing a big role in shifting votes toward the incumbent while voters opposed to the incumbent are going to the former LDP MLA.

[jaichind]

Another fun race next Sunday will be the election for mayor of 町田市(Machida) in Tokyo where a 4 way split of the right-wing vote is likely to throw the race to a Center-Left-JCP united front candidate.  The 4-term incumbent had won the last 4 times based on LDP-KP support.  This time around, just like the 長崎(Nagasaki) governor race, the LDP-KP is withholding support to the incumbent due to his age (he is 74.)  A former LDP Tokyo MLA is running and LDP-KP is neutral leading to a split of the LDP-KP vote.  Also, a JRP candidate jumped in as well as a pro-LDP candidate with a defense establishment background.  The Center-Left-JCP formed an alliance to capture the mayor's position.  Also, PNHK is in the fray.

So the candidates are

Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)
pro-LDP-KP incumbent
former LDP MLA
pro-LDP defense estblishment
JRP
PNHK

If I had to guess the result will be something like

Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)    32%
pro-LDP-KP incumbent                                             26%
JRP                                                                         20%
former LDP MLA                                                       14%
pro-LDP defense establishment                                   5%
PNHK                                                                        3%

where the Center-Left-JCP united front wins with a 4 way split of the Center-Right vote.

So far it is
pro-LDP-KP incumbent (backed by TPFA)                32%
former LDP MLA                                                    32%
JRP                                                                      23%
Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)  13%
PNHK                                                                     1%
pro-LDP defense establishment                                0%

A lot of the center-left vote it seems has gone to the incumbent due to TPFA while a good part of the LDP-KP vote has gone to the former LDP MLA

[jaichind]

長崎(Nagasaki) governor  race (67% in)

CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent      49.9%
Prefecture LDP-JRP                                      42.8%
JCP                                                              7.3%

Some of 長崎市(Nagasaki City) are in and it is neck-to-neck there.  I think this race should be called for the CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent at this point.

[jaichind]

町田市(Machida) mayor race

pro-LDP-KP incumbent (backed by TPFA)                36%
former LDP MLA                                                    27%
JRP                                                                      22%
Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)  13%
PNHK                                                                     2%
pro-LDP defense establishment                                1%

A disastrous result for Center-Left-JCP united front.  This result brings back memories of the 2012 Lower House LDP landslide along with the JRP wave as well as the 2017 Tokyo assembly election TPFA wave that wiped out DP.

[jaichind]

長崎(Nagasaki) governor  race (all votes in)

Shock ending. Prefecture LDP-JRP pulls out a narrow victory with late urban votes coming in !!!

Prefecture LDP-JRP                                      45.6%
CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent      45.5%
JCP                                                              8.9%

The margin of victory seems to be 541 votes.  The Prefecture LDP-JRP backed winner at age 39 will become the youngest governor in Japan.                               

[jaichind]

町田市(Machida) mayor race

pro-LDP-KP incumbent (backed by TPFA)                36%
former LDP MLA                                                    25%
JRP                                                                      21%
Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)  15%
PNHK                                                                     2%
pro-LDP defense establishment                                1%

The result is clear.  Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP) vote share grows from a disastrous 13% to a still disastrous 15%

[jaichind]

長崎(Nagasaki) governor election results map

Prefecture LDP-JRP winning margin

[jaichind]

町田市(Machida) mayor race final result

pro-LDP-KP incumbent (backed by TPFA)                36.0%
former LDP MLA                                                    24.7%
JRP                                                                      20.9%
Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)  15.4%
PNHK                                                                     2.2%
pro-LDP defense establishment                                0.9%

[jaichind]

Koike's TPFA will nominate a candidate in the Tokyo Upper House elections.  This is the first time TPFA will really enter national politics after an aborted attempt back in the 2021 Lower House elections.  I am not counting the creation of Koike's HP back in 2017 because HP was really a new national party and meant to be separate from Tokyo regional TPFA.   This is ultra bad news for DPP since the TPFA candidate will eat up all of DPP votes.  DPP is better off backing this TPFA candidate.  As for the rest of the 6- member race it is hard to tell who else this hurts.  I guess it hurts JRP the most although the TPFA candidate could really eat into the CDP vote as well.

[jaichind]

What one can get out of the elections this last weekend is the CDP brand has diminished greatly since 2021 while the JRP brand has surged since 2021.  長崎(Nagasaki)  actually trended away from JRP and toward CDP in the 2021 Lower House elections yet now with the LDP vote split the JRP backed candidate beat the CDP-DPP-backed incumbent.  Also, in the 町田市(Machida) mayor race, the Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP) totally flopped as the CDP vote shifted toward the TPFA backed the ex-LDP-KP incumbent.

Unless these trends change the Center-Left is facing a repeat of the 2013 Upper House landslide defeat.  Worst for the Center-Left is that in 2013 at least JCP was pretty strong which means there was some vote they can get in later elections if alliances can be formed with JCP.   This time the JCP seems much weaker than in 2013 and has never really recovered from its poor 2017 Lower House results.  The only real hope for the Center-Left forces is to accept 3- member and larger districts will go against them but somehow form a tactical alliance with JCP and JRP in single-member districts on a district-by-district basis to try to prevent a LDP sweep there.

[jaichind]

Koike's TPFA will nominate a candidate in the Tokyo Upper House elections.  This is the first time TPFA will really enter national politics after an aborted attempt back in the 2021 Lower House elections.  I am not counting the creation of Koike's HP back in 2017 because HP was really a new national party and meant to be separate from Tokyo regional TPFA.   This is ultra bad news for DPP since the TPFA candidate will eat up all of DPP votes.  DPP is better off backing this TPFA candidate.  As for the rest of the 6- member race it is hard to tell who else this hurts.  I guess it hurts JRP the most although the TPFA candidate could really eat into the CDP vote as well.

It seems the TPFA candidate will be 荒木千陽 (Araki Chiharu) who is a TPFA MLA and the leader of the 2021 ファーストの会 (First Association) that ended up going nowhere.  I think she will run as a TPFA candidate.  It seems DPP will not run a candidate and back her.

Tokyo is a 6- member district.  TPFA running almost assures that LDP will win 2 of the  6 seats, KP will win one, JCP will win one, and CDP's former DP leader and political superstar Renho will clearly win.  So the last seat will be fought over by a second CDP candidate, JRP and TPFA.  It is hard to see which of the 3 will win but I suspect the second CDP candidate will be an underdog since RS will most likely run and cut into the CDP vote.

The winner of TPFA getting in is clearly LDP which now will win 2 seats for sure.