2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[jaichind]

Updated Chart of the 32 1- member district assessments by 毎日(Mainichi),朝日( Asahi),  共同(Kyodo) , and now 産経(Sankei

毎日(Mainichi) has it at 24-8, 朝日( Asahi) has it at 26-6, 共同(Kyodo) has it at 28-4, and 産経(Sankei) has it at 22-10.  



There are 11 seats on this list that one of the media houses has given the opposition the edge.  They are, in order of likelihood of opposition victory by looking at the 4 projections

沖縄(Okinawa)
長野(Nagano)
愛媛(Ehime)
秋田(Akita)
宮城(Miyagi)
滋賀(Shiga)
新潟(Niigata)
山形(Yamagata)
岩手(Iwate)
大分(Ōita)
三重(Mie)

And there are 2 more where the opposition has a chance

青森(Aomori) and 福島(Fukushima)

Main surprise is how close the opposition are in 長崎(Nagasaki) and 香川(Kagawa).  Also it is a surprise how far off the opposition is in 山梨(Yamanashi) which used to be a battleground prefecture but more and more is viewed as lean LDP.
 

[jaichind]

奈良(Nara) poll on PR vote

LDP    27.7
KP       5.9
JRP    14.1
PNHK   3.0
DPP     0.6
CDP    4.2
Olive   1.6
JCP     1.7

JRP and the new parties (PNHK and Olive) are polling very well.  奈良(Nara) is in Kinki so JRP is suppose to do well here. JRP saw a lot of its support drop here in 2017.  Looks like a lot of that is coming back.

[jaichind]

産経(Sankei) poll for 大阪(Osaka) district

JRP  21.5
JRP  19.7
LDP  18.0
KP    10.3
JCP    9.3
CDP   9.0
DPP   1.1

Which shows a 3 way battle between KP JCP and CDP for 4th and last seat.  KP under-polls the most so this poll should imply a clear victory for KP to win the 4th seats especially with JCP and CDP neck-to-neck meaning that tactical voting is impossible.

[Cape Verde]

産経(Sankei) poll for 大阪(Osaka) district

JRP  21.5
JRP  19.7
LDP  18.0
KP    10.3
JCP    9.3
CDP   9.0
DPP   1.1

Which shows a 3 way battle between KP JCP and CDP for 4th and last seat.  KP under-polls the most so this poll should imply a clear victory for KP to win the 4th seats especially with JCP and CDP neck-to-neck meaning that tactical voting is impossible.

If CDP candidate withdraws in Osaka and JCP candidate withdraws in Hyogo, it would be a win-win scenario. However, neither party's organization would agree to such scenario.

[jaichind]

産経(Sankei) poll for 大阪(Osaka) district

JRP  21.5
JRP  19.7
LDP  18.0
KP    10.3
JCP    9.3
CDP   9.0
DPP   1.1

Which shows a 3 way battle between KP JCP and CDP for 4th and last seat.  KP under-polls the most so this poll should imply a clear victory for KP to win the 4th seats especially with JCP and CDP neck-to-neck meaning that tactical voting is impossible.

If CDP candidate withdraws in Osaka and JCP candidate withdraws in Hyogo, it would be a win-win scenario. However, neither party's organization would agree to such scenario.

That would be the logical thing to do but as you said the organisational imperative of both parties makes this impossible.  DPP's strategy of nominating a weak candidate (a Sri Lankan professor) in 大阪(Osaka) is another way of saving face, getting some PR out of it, but in the end encouraging tactical voting, is another way.  Neither JCP nor CDP would go for this when both can make a claim that their candidate COULD win.  It was the same thing in 2016 for both prefectures and 神奈川(Kanagawa) where inability for the Center-Left parties and JCP to coordinate in multi-member districts threw away seats.  The de facto coordination of Center-Right parties (LDP KP and JRP) is actually a lot better.

[jaichind]

The same 大阪(Osaka) based MBS poll that had CDP beating out KP in 大阪(Osaka) for the 4th seat in 大阪(Osaka) and CDP beating out KP in 兵庫(Hyōgo) for the 3rd seat also has JCP slightly ahead of CDP in 京都(Kyoto) and OPPN ahead of LDP in 滋賀(Shiga).  The 京都(Kyoto) polling result matches other media polls but I do not buy it as it just violates basic partisan fundamentals.   

[jaichind]

This weekend there will be around round of projection some by media outfits that  did not come out with one yet. ニコニコ or  NicoNico which is Japan's youtube historically has been the most accurate of the media projections.  Historically the projections tend to a) herd and b) shift somewhat toward the LDP.  Given the recent controversy over trade tensions between Japan and ROK I suspect that this weekend's projections/polling will shift somewhat toward LDP, usually from the more anti-LDP projections. 

[jaichind]

There is a boycott movement in ROK against Japanese goods which is gaining in level of support over trade tensions

ROK polling as approval/disapproval of Japan at 12/77 which is a record low


All this news will only shift support toward the LDP although some will be at the expense of JRP.

[jaichind]

NHK polling in the run up to the Upper House elections indicates that turnout will be low.  The number of polled that said they had "Great Interest" (20%) and "Likely to Vote" (55%) has dropped to record low levels.

This should be good for KP and JCP and to some extent LDP and bad the the Center-Left parties


Most likely as a result the LDP will avoid the "Year of the Boar" (亥年) effect.  Every Upper House election held in the Year or the Dog has seen big LDP setback (2007 1995) or minor ones (1983 1971).  The idea is the in the Year of the Dog the Unified Local Election are held in April in the same year as the Upper House elections held in July.  The LDP cadre local machines which mobilized for the Unified Local Elections are too tried to mobilize again especially for the Upper House which historically has been seen as less important than prefecture elections (where all the pork is dolled out) and the Lower House elections.

This time around most likely LDP will perform around the same as 2016 or even slightly better which is pretty good given the historical trend.

[jaichind]

Latest  共同(Kyodo) poll has LDP gaining ground from last week but not making gains on topics like Constitutional Revision

PR vote
LDP   31.0(+2.2)
CDP    7.2(-1.8 )

District vote
LDP-KP      32.2(+0.9)
Opposition  21.8(+1.5)

Support for Constitutional Revision 34.2(-0.8 )
Abe Cabinet approval/disapproval 46.5(-1.1)/40.3(-3.8 )

[jaichind]

More complete results from 共同(Kyodo) poll on PR

LDP   31.0(+2.2)
KP       5.6(--)
JRP     4.4(+1.2)
DPP    2.5(+0.9)
CDP    7.2(-1.8  )
RS      1.1
SDP    0.8(-0.4)
JCP     2.0(-0.5)

A clear shift away from the Left toward the Right.  Could also partly be between Center-Left voters are not responding due to the recent Japan-ROK trade crisis.

[jaichind]

時事(Jiji) projection.  They are not making it clear but reading their prefecture by prefecture analysis and eyeballing their chart one gets

1- member district LDP-Opposition 24-8

          District    PR      Total
LDP         40      19        59
KP            7        6        13
JRP          3         5          8
DPP          3         3         6
CDP        11       11       22
RS            0         0        0
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           3         5        8
OPPN        7                   7  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)



Which would produce

LDP+           72
Center Left   36
Third Pole      8
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          143
Center Left   73
Third Pole     15
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 35.51% of the seats.  This means the anti-constitutional revision bloc would get the numbers to block constitutional revision.

Politically Jiji is sort of like AP which is mostly neutral.  

Back in 2016 時事(Jiji)  final projection was mostly on the mark in terms of final seat count

                District        PR           Total
LDP              38           17            55
KP                 7             7             14
ORA               3             4              7
DP                19           13           32
PLP                0            0               0
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 2            6              8
Pro-DP Ind     4            0               4

The final result was

                 District        PR           Total
LDP              36           19            55
KP                 7             7             14
ORA               3             4              7
DP                21           11            32
PLP                0             1              1
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 1            5              6
Pro-DP Ind     5             0              5

[jaichind]

Turnout rates in Upper House elections since 1965 by age cohort.  Over time turnout for 70+ if anything have risen while 50s and 60s dropped a bit.  The fall in turnout for the 20s 30s 40s are more dramatic over time.

2016 was the first time people ages 18-21 could vote.  Their turnout ended up being higher than the 20s turnout rate

[jaichind]

朝日(Asahi) poll on PR (change from June poll)

Overall
LDP  35(-5)
KP     6
JRP    6
DPP   2(+1)
CDP 12(-1)
RS     1
SDP   2
JCP    6(+1)

Among independents
LDP 16
KP    4
JRP   6
DPP  2
CDP 12
RS    2
SDP  3
JCP   3

Abe Cabinet approval/disapproval 42(-3)/34(+1)



There were talk that a RS surge will most likely drive SDP below the threshold to get seats.  This poll seems to say otherwise.  JCP support seems to be holding up well.  Independents seems to lean CDP and JRP.

2016 朝日(Asahi) poll on PR 1 week before the election

LDP   35  (-3)
KP       7  (--)
PJK      1
ORA     7 (+3)
DP     16 (+1)
PLP      1
SDP     1
JCP      6  (--)

Which makes 2016 poll almost identical with 2019 if you add CDP and DPP vote share together.

[jaichind]

日経(Nikkei) projection is a total cop out with very wide ranges

          District     PR         Total
LDP     34-46    19-21     53-68
KP        3-7        7-8       10-15
JRP       1-6        3-4        4-10
DPP      3-4        1-2         4-6
CDP     6-13      9-11      15-24
SDP       0          0-1         0-1
Others 2-10       0-1        2-11  (includes RS and Center-Left Opposition backed independents)



The projection is very negative on KP and to some extent JRP.  

Reading their writeup and eyeballing their PR seat projection chart I was able to construct their medium projection




1- member district LDP-Opposition 24-8

          District    PR      Total
LDP         42      20        62
KP            5        7        12
JRP          4         4         8
DPP          3         2         5
CDP        10       11       21
RS            0         0        0
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           4         5        9
OPPN        6                   6  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

Which would produce

LDP+           74
Center Left   33
Third Pole      8
JCP               9

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          145
Center Left   70
Third Pole     15
JCP              15

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 34.69% of the seats.  This means the anti-constitutional revision bloc would barely get the numbers to block constitutional revision.

[jaichind]

読売(Yomiuri) projection. 



           District       PR          Total
LDP     38-41       17-21       55-62
KP        6-7           6-8         12-15
JRP       3-5          4-6           7-11
DPP      2-3          2-3            4-6
CDP     8-12         8-12        16-24
RS         0            0-2           0-2
SDP       0            0-2           0-2
JCP      2-4          4-6           6-10
OPPN   3-8                          3-8   (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

Reading their analysis a rough guess on median projection would be

          District    PR      Total
LDP         41      19        60
KP            7        7        14
JRP          4         5         9
DPP          3         2         5
CDP          9       10       19
RS            0         1        1
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           3         5        8
OPPN        7                   7  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

Which would produce

LDP+           74
Center Left   33
Third Pole      9
JCP               8

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          145
Center Left   70
Third Pole     16
JCP              14

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 34.29% of the seats.  This means the anti-constitutional revision bloc would barely get the numbers to block constitutional revision.

Back in 2016 読売(Yomiuri) final projection was tilted toward LDP as well as JCP



                District        PR           Total
LDP              40           20            60
KP                 6             8            14
ORA               3             3             6
DP                16           11           27
PLP                0            0              0
SDP               0             1             1
JCP                4            5              9
Pro-DP Ind     4            0              4

The final result was

                 District        PR           Total
LDP              36           19            55
KP                 7             7             14
ORA               3             4              7
DP                21           11            32
PLP                0             1              1
SDP               0             1              1
JCP                 1            5              6
Pro-DP Ind     5             0              5

[jaichind]

毎日(Mainichi) projection shift from last week

             7/7             7/14
LDP      53-64         51-62
KP       11-14          10-14
JRP       5-9              6-10
DPP      4-6               4-6
CDP    19-25           19-26
RS        0-1               1-3
SDP      0-1               0-0
JCP      6-13             6-13
OPPN    4-10            5-10  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

This projection shows LDP losing ground and RS having a big surge.



A rough guess on median projection would be

          District    PR      Total
LDP         38      19        57
KP            6        7        13
JRP          3         5         8
DPP          3         2         5
CDP        11       11       22
RS            0         2        2
SDP          0         0        0
JCP           5         4        9
OPPN        8                   8  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)

Which would produce

LDP+           70
Center Left   37
Third Pole      8
JCP               9

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          141
Center Left   74
Third Pole     15
JCP              15

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 36.33% of the seats.  This means the anti-constitutional revision bloc would  get the numbers to block constitutional revision.

It also has analysis of the 32 1- member seats

It has the opposition ahead in
岩手(Iwate)
宮城(Miyagi)
山形(Yamagata)
新潟(Niigata)
長野(Nagano)
愛媛(Ehime)
沖縄(Okinawa)

And has it as neck-to-neck in
青森(Aomori)
秋田(Akita)
三重(Mie)
滋賀(Shiga)
鹿児島(Kagoshima)

鹿児島(Kagoshima is the real shock here where it seems the LDP rebel is taking away enough LDP votes to give the opposition a shot here according to the 毎日(Mainichi)  projection

[jaichind]

Both 毎日(Mainichi) and 読売(Yomiuri) says that PNHK might actually get a seat on the PR slate which means that their projection have PNHK PR vote share close to 1.8%

[jaichind]

読売(Yomiuri) poll on level of interest Large (Deep Blue) and Some (light Blue) by age cohort.  It is clear that the level of interest is higher with age.

[jaichind]

読売(Yomiuri) poll on support/opposition to Constitutional Revision to legalize SDF.

Overall               34/41
LDP PR voter      55/22
KP PR voter        38/34
CDP PR voter      13/75
DPP PR voter      23/62
JCP PR voter       11/79
JRP PR voter       48/38
SDP PR voter      13/77

So LDP PR voters are overall for.  KP and JRP are lukewarm and rest against.

[jaichind]

Abe cabinet support mostly constant during the campaign season


LDP support falling but a lot of that is going to KP and JRP

[jaichind]

Final 大阪(Osaka) based MBS projections for 近畿(Kinki) region.  They have some graphics but I have to eyeball them to get a sense of vote share

大阪(Osaka) (4- member)
JRP  19
JRP  17
LDP  16
JCP  11
KP   10
CDP  9

兵庫(Hyōgo) (3- member)
LDP 24
JRP  21
CDP 19
KP   18
JCP   6

京都(Kyoto) (2- member)
LDP 36
CDP 18
JCP  16

滋賀(Shiga)
LDP   40
OPPN 40

奈良(Nara)
LDP   39
OPPN 31

和歌山(Wakayama)
LDP    47
OPPN  32

I still think KP will pull through in 大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo) while CDP should win in 京都(Kyoto)

[jaichind]

Of all the multi-member districts 3- member 兵庫(Hyōgo) seems the most interesting.   This is because it seems the LDP is ahead but KP JRP CDP seems to be locked in a three way tie behind LDP.  This leads to very different media projections.  They are respectively

        朝日       共同       毎日         産経                  時事      日経       読売
     (Asahi)  (Kyodo) (Mainichi) (Sankei)   (JNN)   (Jiji)   (Nikkei)  (Yomiuri)
1      LDP       LDP        LDP         LDP        LDP    LDP      LDP         LDP
2       KP        JRP         JRP         JRP        JRP     JRP      CDP          KP
3      JRP        KP          KP          CDP         KP      KP       JRP         CDP
4      CDP      CDP        CDP          KP        CDP    CDP       KP         JRP
5      JCP       JCP         JCP         JCP         JCP    JCP       JCP         JCP

So all we know is that LDP is first and JCP is last.  KP JRP CDP all appear as 2nd 3rd or 4th in different projections.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

how much is actually riding on the election result?

[jaichind]

岩手(Iwate) PR vote poll

LDP   28.5
KP      6.0
JRP     2.6
DPP    6.9
CDP  20.2
SDP   5.5
JCP    7.8


Seems to imply that some media projections that LDP is ahead of the OPPN candidate in the district seat is unlikely to be true unless the LDP candidate who is an old Ozawa loyalist could eat into the Opposition PR vote.