Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

The next significant election before the Upper House elections will be the 新潟(Niigata) governor election on May 29th.  The pro-LDP incumbent is running for re-election and clearly has the edge.  The main opposition candidate is the head of a citizen action group and it seems that she will focus on an anti-nuclear power stance.  In 2016 the opposite defeated the pro-LDP candidate based on the nuclear power issue but with world energy prices surging it is clear this issue has lost its salience.  It is not clear which opposition parties (like CDP and JCP) will actually back the pro-opposition candidate.  DPP which is pro-nuclear power seems to be more likely to stay neutral or even back the pro-LDP candidate.  JRP might come in with a candidate but the JRP is anti-nuclear power and is much more likely to split the opposition vote if the main opposition candidate issue is going to be nuclear power.

Kind of feels like a good background for the LDP here, from the looks of it.

During the era where the Tanaka clan shifted from LDP to the DPJ in 2002 新潟(Niigata) has clearly leaned opposition.  Since the Tanaka's retired from politics in the early to mid-2010s this prefecture has been trending LDP.  The good news for the Center-Left opposition is that JRP is and continues to be very weak here so this is still a LDP-KP vs opposition prefecture where if the Center-Left can stay united and get JCP to stand down they always have a chance.  Here for a governor race, the incumbency factor will be too strong and the pro-LDP candidate is destined to win.   The opposition has to wait until when this becomes an open seat.

[jaichind]

Looks like jRP is going to run on Constitutional change and downplay their demand for Osaka to be co-capital with Tokyo which was a key plank in 2016.  This time around it seems JRP feel a bunch of national security-based LDP voters is up for grabs by them if JRP pushes the Constitutional change line.  I assume they figure without Abe at the top of the ticket JRP could get some tactical LDP voters for JRP on this plank.

[jaichind]

The JRP PR list is massive and includes various second-tier politicians from every region including a few prominent has-beens from across the political spectrum.

JRP, like JCP KP and RS, are allocating PR candidates by geographic region while LDP CDP, and DPP are allocating PR candidates by professional or special interest sector.


It seems JRP is going all out to push up its PR vote to overtake CDP in PR vote and seats.  Their strategy, as I have pointed out before, is to take PR votes from LDP CDP, and KP and along the way weaken CDP so much they can go to the LDP vote and say that the risk of a CDP-JCP government is now nil so the LDP voter can vote JRP with no risk in the upcoming election cycles.

[jaichind]

The issue that has the greatest partisan polarization is sales tax.  LDP-KP is for keeping it at 10% while all opposition parties are for lowering it.  The poll response by partisan ID is nearly 100-0 or 0-100 on this issue

[jaichind]

It seems old dormant Far-Right 維新政党・新風 (IPS) (Ishin Party Shimpu) is also going to run a bunch of candidates.

This election cycle the minor party energy is all on the Far Right.  We have the 2 standard protest parties (PNHK which appeals to both the Right and Left protest) and HRP which has a protest Far-Right appeal.  But both are more about anti-system and protest votes than any idelogy.  Beyond that, we now have 4 Far-Right minor parties that seem to be going all out this cycle while the lean Left EP (Euthanasia Party) and Far-Left WP(Workers Party) seem to be dormant this cycle.

The 4 Far-Right parties have similar platforms: Nativism, aggressive foreign policy, pushing out Western liberal cultural influence, increase in the role of the Emperor

Each of the 4 has their own special niche

新党くにもり (NPC) (New Party Conservative) - their niche seems to be militarization and nuclear weapons
日本第一党 (JFP) (Japan First party) - their niche seems to be anti-DPRK and reducing the influence of Zainichi Koreans in Japan
維新政党・新風 (IPS) (Ishin Party Shimpu) - their niche seems to be restoring the role of the Emperor to the pre-1945 era
参政党 (PP) (Participation party) - their niche seems to be anti-woke anti-Western liberal influence and returning Japanese culture to a pre-1945 period

Frankly, all 4 parties would agree with the niches of all the others so I do not see why these 4 parties would not from an electoral front.   All of them seem insistent on running a large number of candidates.  Any disagreements between them seem like a battle between Judea Peoples Front and the People Front of Judea.  They only dilute their efforts by running separately.  The only theory I can think of is their goal is actually to cut in the LDP and JRP vote so LDP and JRP in the future will incorporate their ideas into their platform.

HRP's platform would pretty much share what these 4 parties would have other than increasing the role of the emperor but it would make no sense for HRP to be part of this Far-Right Front since HRP is always about protest and anti-system than being Far-Right.

[jaichind]

NNN PR poll (change from Feb)

LDP      44 (+3)
KP          5 (+1)
PNHK      0 (-1)
JRP       10 (-4)
DPP        3 (+1)
CDP        8 (-1)
RS          1 (-1)
SDP        0 (-1)
JCP         2 (-1)

LDP-KP gains at the expense of everyone else, especially JRP.  LDP-KP at 49 is most likely what this poll implies which is about where a solid LDP-KP performance would be.  But CDP JRP vote more evenly split this would have great implications for LDP-KP in the district eletions.

[jaichind]

PR vote curve.

LDP-KP gaining ground while JRP CDP and JCP losing ground.  DPP also making small gains.

[jaichind]

https://hochi.news/articles/20220518-OHT1T51259.html

Sportswriter, best-seller writer, and now YouTuber 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) it seems will run in the Tokyo district.  He was born with no arms or legs and his autobiography was a best seller in Japan and went on to be a successful sportswriter.  In 2016 both LDP and JRP were bidding to get him to be on their PR slate but then it came out that he was having affairs with at least 5 women.  After that, he got divorced and became a political commentator on youtube.



Now that some time has passed since 2016 he has decided to jump into the fray.  He will be able to win some floating vote and hurt LDP CDP and JRP and by implication help KP and JCP.

[jaichind]

https://hochi.news/articles/20220518-OHT1T51259.html

Sportswriter, best-seller writer, and now YouTuber 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) it seems will run in the Tokyo district.  He was born with no arms or legs and his autobiography was a best seller in Japan and went on to be a successful sportswriter.  In 2016 both LDP and JRP were bidding to get him to be on their PR slate but then it came out that he was having affairs with at least 5 women.  After that, he got divorced and became a political commentator on youtube.



Now that some time has passed since 2016 he has decided to jump into the fray.  He will be able to win some floating vote and hurt LDP CDP and JRP and by implication help KP and JCP.

This most likely means RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will not run in Tokyo.  It is still possible if not likely he will instead run in Kanto urbanized 神奈川(Kanagawa) or 埼玉(Saitama) instead.

[jaichind]

It seems I was wrong.  There will be a rally tonight in Tokyo where RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  will most likely announce that he will run in Tokyo.

[jaichind]

It seems I was wrong.  There will be a rally tonight in Tokyo where RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  will most likely announce that he will run in Tokyo.

Confirmed that 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  will run in Tokyo with the current RS candidate moved to the RS PR slate.  This seems fairly disrespectful to the existing RS candidate to get shifted around like this and creates the correct, impression that RS is just a one-person party centered around 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō.)  One does not grow a small party to a medium-sized party that way.


山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)'s entry means that there will be 9 or 10 viable candidates for 6 seats.  In reality, the 4 incumbents (1 LDP, 1 CDP, 1 JCP, and 1 KP) are sure to win with 5-6 candidates fighting for the last 2 seats.

These 6 candidates are LDP, CDP, JRP, RS (Yamamoto), TPFA(backed by DPP), and independent 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada).  It is not clear whether 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) can make it into this second tier and many are just assuming he can win a bunch of independent votes given his name recognition.   It is hard to say which 2 out of is batch of 6 will make it.  It really depends on where 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) and 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will pull their votes from.  It is assumed that 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada)  will eat into the LDP and JRP vote while 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will eat into the CDP and JCP vote.  To what extent and how much that is true will decide which 2 of the 6 make it.  If I had to guess now I would say LDP and JRP but anything could happen now in such a crowded field.

[jaichind]

Jiji came out with their estimates on 1- member seats.  It has LDP sweeping all 1- member seats except for 岩手(Iwate) and 沖縄(Okinawa) which would be a repeat of their 2013 election performance.  I agree this is around what the best case scenario is for LDP but I do have a hard time seeing them winning 山形(Yamagata) over the DPP incumbant.

[jaichind]

Asahi PR vote poll has LDP-KP at 48 and JRP and CDP even.

LDP         42
KP            6
PNHK        1
JRP         11
DPP          4
CDP        10
RS            2
SDP          1
JCP           3



They have some breakdowns for CDP vs JRP

Age in the 30s: JRP 22  CDP    5
Age in the 70s: JRP   8  CDP  14

Osaka:  JRP 35   CDP   3
Tokyo:   JRP   9   CDP  13

[jaichind]

In terms of Twitter followers, the Tokyo candidates of 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) (851K), then CDP's Renho(528K), and 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)(427K) are at the top of all candidates in the Upper House elections.  I wonder how many of them are bots.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet edging upward.  It seems a lot like Abe cabinet approval.  The most likely reason why people approve of the Kishida cabinet is because of "there is no one else."

[jaichind]

These 6 candidates are LDP, CDP, JRP, RS (Yamamoto), TPFA(backed by DPP), and independent 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada).  It is not clear whether 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) can make it into this second tier and many are just assuming he can win a bunch of independent votes given his name recognition.   It is hard to say which 2 out of is batch of 6 will make it.  It really depends on where 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) and 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will pull their votes from.  It is assumed that 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada)  will eat into the LDP and JRP vote while 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will eat into the CDP and JCP vote.  To what extent and how much that is true will decide which 2 of the 6 make it.  If I had to guess now I would say LDP and JRP but anything could happen now in such a crowded field.

JX did a poll for Tokyo



And the result pretty much matched my guess of the 4 incumbents that will win a seat each with LDP and JRP most likely ahead of the pack of 6 fighting for the last two.

It had LDP CDP JCP and KP incumbents ahead.  It then had it at LDP JRP RS CDP TPFA(backed by DPP) and 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) with SDP well behind.

One dynamic this poll is picking up which is good news for JRP is that the DPP-backed TPFA candidate is fairly far back in the list.  There are a bunch of Third Pole pro-TPFA JRP-TPFA marginal votes and this poll seems to indicate that they are breaking for JRP which greatly increases the chances of JRP making it while RS and the second CDP candidate are splitting the non-Renho center-left vote.

Most media outfits are calling the Tokyo race a "大混戦" or Big chaotic battle.  The word "混戦" means a multi-cornered battle where it is not clear who is fighting whom and who is ahead which is a very good description on what is going on in Tokyo.

[jaichind]

Head of LDP communications and past and most likely future LDP Prez contender 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) announces new LDP party logo going from



to

The same thing but with cat ears

[jaichind]

Is that actually the party's new logo, or is it just a temporary publicity thing like when IHOP changed their name to IHOB?

LDP has several logos.  

In theory this is the LDP logo


And this is the party flag


This is in theory the new party letterhead which is the same as the old boring letterhead but now with cat ears.


My post is more about the boring nature of Japanese party logos and even when they do make changes it is only on the margins and does not change the boring nature of these logos

[jaichind]

JX poll/prediction of PR seat

              2019          2022 JX projection
LDP          19                     19
KP              7                      7
PNHK         1                       0
JRP            5                     8-9
DPP           3                       2
CDP           8                     8-9
RS             2                       2
SDP           1                       0
JCP            4                       3

Which has CDP and JRP neck-to-neck and both at the boundary of 8-9 seats.

[jaichind]

新潟(Niigata) governor election today.   In the end, DPP backed the pro-LDP-KP incumbent while only JCP RS and SDP backed the opposition candidate with CDP being neutral.  Should be a something like LDP-KP-DPP 70/30 win.

[jaichind]

新潟(Niigata) governor exit poll.  Seems like

LDP-KP-DPP       78
JCP-RS-SDP       22

[jaichind]

新潟(Niigata) governor all votes counted

LDP-KP-DPP       77.5
JCP-RS-SDP       22.5

Pretty much matched exit polls.  

Exit polls by party support.  It seems the broad anti-LDP independent vote broke for the pro-LDP-KP incumbent.

[jaichind]

Nikkei PR vote poll.  Massive LDP lead (change from April)

LDP     51 (+8)
KP        4  (-1)
PNHK    0  (-1)
JRP       8  (-4)
DPP      2   (--)
CDP      7  (-2)
RS        2  (-1)
SDP      0  (--)
JCP       3  (+1)

LDP getting a large bump from Kishida hosting in G7 summit.

[jaichind]

2016 Rengo vote.  Sum of all PR votes for Rengo background DP candidates in 2016.  Rengo is strong in old industrial parts of 静岡(Shizuoka) and 愛知(Aichi).   Rengo is also strong in 中国(Chūgoku) and 九州 (Kyushu) where they are in a constant battle there with JCP over control of unions there.

[jaichind]

https://www.mbc.co.jp/news/article/2022053100056554.html

For the first time in this election cycle, JCP withdraws a candidate in favor of the CDP candidate in 鹿児島(Kagoshima).   It will not make a difference in this prefecture where the LDP incumbent is sure to cruise to re-election but does show other JCP withdrawals are possible.

Where it would make a difference would be

1) 秋田(Akita) - here a pro-CDP independent and a center-right pro-DPP independent are in the fray. If JCP pulls out the pro-CDP independent does have a tiny chance of winning if the pro-DPP independent pulls in more JRP and some LDP votes than pro-CDP opposition votes.

2) 山形(Yamagata) - Here the CDP is backing the DPP incumbant.  Given the poor relationships between JCP and DPP, it is unlikely JCP will pull out.  The DPP incumbent is actually favored to win even if the JCP does not pull out.

3) 滋賀(Shiga) - Here CDP and DPP are jointly backing an independent against the LDP incumbent.  If the JCP pulls out there is a tiny chance of the opposition independent winning.  If not it will be an easy LDP win for sure.

4) 長崎(Nagasaki) - This is an open seat and there are signs of anti-LDP unrest.  CDP has a fairly inexperienced candidate and if the JCP pulls out there might a small chance of an upset.

5) 大分(Ōita) - The DPP incumbent should be favored but he faces an opposition rebel and JCP to split the anti-LDP vote.  If JCP does not pull out he is likely to lose.  Given the poor relationship between DPP and JCP this is not likely to take place.