Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

List of candidates announced so far (and likely candidates) by prefecture

Main takeaways

1) LDP lineup, as usual, is very strong filled with incumbents, people with national political experience, or prominent politicians at the prefecture-level.  This is not true for 岩手(Iwate) and 大分(Ōita) where the LDP candidates are prominent lawyers which gives you a sense that the LDP could not recruit top tier candidates for those seats which it is likely to lose.   LDP does not have candidates for 山形(Yamagata),  山梨(Yamanashi), 長野(Nagano), and 沖縄(Okinawa) where they will face strong opposition incumbents.  Again this gives you a sense that LDP will end up being underdogs there.  

2) KP has 7 incumbents running and will win all 7

3) DPP and allies have a strong lineup of candidates so far with 4 incumbents and 3 prominent prefecture-level politicians.

4) CDP and allies seem to have a combo of incumbents, prominent prefecture-level politicians, and political novices.    Unlike DPP, CDP seems to be in a mood to try to experiment or are not able to recruit top-tier talent.

5) JCP has strong candidates in 東京(Tokyo) (incumbent) and 大阪(Osaka) (ex-MP) and have credible candidates in multi-member places 北海道(Hokkaido), 埼玉(Saitama), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 兵庫(Hyōgo), and 福岡(Fukuoka).  In single-member districts, they seem to be going after DPP announcing candidates in places DPP is running.  For most of them, the LDP is going to win anyway so it does not matter.  So far the main danger to the opposition is 山形(Yamagata) where JCP is running a candidate against the DPP incumbent.  But the LDP does not even have a candidate there which shows the DPP incumbent is in a strong position with or without a JCP candidate.

6) JRP is playing its cards close to its chest.  It is running its 2 incumbents in 大阪(Osaka) and 1 incumbent in 兵庫(Hyōgo) but really is not disclosed who else they will run.  It is clear they will run in a bunch of different places (most likely the 3- member and above districts and 1- member districts in Kinki) but we do not know where and who.

7) In 福島(Fukushima) it is a fun 4-way battle.  The DP incumbent defected to LDP but was rejected by the local LDP chapter and will run as an independent.  The LDP nominated a prominent doctor while an ex-LDP MP is also running as a LDP rebel.  The CDP candidate does not have political experience.  

8 ) In 宮城(Miyagi) the DP incumbent defected to the LDP but was rejected by the local LDP chapter and will run as an independent.  The LDP will run a prominent member of the prefecture assembly while CDP does not have a candidate yet which gives you a sense of where the wind is blowing.

9) CDP does not have a candidate in 大阪(Osaka) which opens up a CDP-JCP deal where CDP does not run in 大阪(Osaka) for JCP not running in 兵庫(Hyōgo).  I doubt JCP will agree to this as JCP has a big base in 兵庫(Hyōgo) and will be fearful of losing that base to CDP if they do not run a candidate.


10)  Overall, LDP-KP has their act together, JRP is hiding their cards, and there is total chaos on the Center-Left Opposition-JCP side with no coordination yet.

[jaichind]

石川(Ishikawa) governor election March 12th.

It is an open seat Another LDP civil war is leading to a free for all.

The LDP camp will have 3 candidates.  

There is a former LDP Upper House MP that resigned his seat just to run for the governor instead of running for reelection later this Summer.  He has the support of part of the LDP prefecture chapter and CDP.  

Then there is a former LDP Lower House MP that choose not to run for re-election in the Lower House election last year to run for governor.  He has the support of the other part of the LDP prefecture chapter and the JRP.

There is also a pro-LDP mayor that insists on running.

There is a pro-JCP candidate

Lastly, there is a minor independent running

The pro-JCP candidate will most likely get around 6%-8% of the vote which means the 3 pro-LDP candidates will battle it out for the victory with CDP and JRP each taking sides in the LDP civil war.  No polls yet but this one will also be interesting to see the impact of the JRP as JRP has been eating into the LDP and CDP vote here the last couple of cycles and is now one of the strongest JRP rural prefectures outside of Kinki.

[jaichind]

石川(Ishikawa) governor election March 12th.

It is an open seat Another LDP civil war is leading to a free for all.

The LDP camp will have 3 candidates.  

There is a former LDP Upper House MP that resigned his seat just to run for the governor instead of running for reelection later this Summer.  He has the support of part of the LDP prefecture chapter and CDP.  

Then there is a former LDP Lower House MP that choose not to run for re-election in the Lower House election last year to run for governor.  He has the support of the other part of the LDP prefecture chapter and the JRP.

There is also a pro-LDP mayor that insists on running.

There is a pro-JCP candidate

Lastly, there is a minor independent running

The pro-JCP candidate will most likely get around 6%-8% of the vote which means the 3 pro-LDP candidates will battle it out for the victory with CDP and JRP each taking sides in the LDP civil war.  No polls yet but this one will also be interesting to see the impact of the JRP as JRP has been eating into the LDP and CDP vote here the last couple of cycles and is now one of the strongest JRP rural prefectures outside of Kinki.

石川(Ishikawa) prefecture assembly MLA support

Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP - 21 LDP MLA, 7 Center-Left MLA
Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP - 10 LDP MLA, 2 KP MLA
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa) - 1 LDP MLA, 1 Center-Left MLA
pro-JCP candidate - 1 JCP MLA

金沢市(Kanazawa) is the largest city in 石川(Ishikawa)

Looks like the race will be a battle between the two former LDP MPs.  JRP, KP, and a minority of the LDP prefecture MLAs are on one side and the majority of the LDP prefecture MLA plus Center-Left Opposition are on the other.

[jaichind]

The situation in the 4- member (and just for this election 5- member) 神奈川(Kanagawa) for the CDP is going from bad to worse as it now faces a total wipeout here.

In 2016 LDP ran 2 candidates, DP ran 2 candidates, KP and JCP ran a candidate each.  Having 3 Center-Left/Left candidates in the fray split the non-Right vote allowing LDP to win 2 seats, KP 1 and DP 1 leading to a Right/Left balance of 3/1.

In 2019 the result was similar except the Center-Left had CDP and DPP candidates each and LDP only one candidate as ex-governor JRP's 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) had a DPJ background before going to YP was in the fray.  The result was a win for LDP KP JRP and CDP again a Right/Left balance of 3/1.

In 2021  松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) resigned to run in a failed bid to become mayor of 横浜(Yokohama).  The by-election for his spot was decided to be held at the same time as the 2022 Upper House election where for this election 神奈川(Kanagawa) will become a 5- member district and the 5th place winner will serve out the rest of 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi)'s term and have to face re-election in 2025.

One of LDP's 2016 winners resigned late last year to successfully run for a Lower House seat.  In his place, ex-YP leader and former DPJ Upper House MP 浅尾 慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) will run as the second LDP candidate.  松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) is going to run as well for JRP as are the other 2016 LDP and KP winners.  The CDP is hoping to run 2 candidates and get the Right/Left split to be 3/2.  CDP took a blow their 2016 incumbent 中西健治 (Nakanishi Kenji) just announced he will retire and not run for re-election.  To be fair 中西健治 (Nakanishi Kenji) who has a LDP background before joining YP and then JRP and then DP and then CDP is in his 70s so this decision was not a shock.  Now CDP has to find 2 solid candidates to run to try to win 2 seats out of 5.  This now seems very unlikely as the 2 LDP candidates, the 1 KP and 1 JRP candidate all seem to be poised to win.  It will be CDP vs JCP to win the last seats and if CDP nominates 2 weak candidates their votes will be split and JCP will win the last seat.

CDP needs a big reboot of their entire 神奈川(Kanagawa)  game plan or they are going to be in big trouble in the Summer.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval curve.  Mostly holding steady at around 50%

[jaichind]

石川(Ishikawa) governor election polls

Wild polls.  The 3 pro-LDP candidates each are ahead in at least one poll.  Surprising strength for the former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa) over the 2 former MPs which are backed each by CDP and JRP respectively.

[jaichind]

石川(Ishikawa) governor exit polls

Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP 
Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP 
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa) 

are in a 3-way tie. 

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP slightly ahead of Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)  who is slightly ahead of Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP



pro-JCP candidates and minor independents are way behind

JCP vote tiny and many JCP voters must have tactically voted for the top 3 candidates.

[jaichind]

Another 石川(Ishikawa) governor exit poll has exact %

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        36%
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        33%
Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       28%
pro-JCP                                                              2%
Minor independent                                              1%


Looks like another JRP victory over CDP in their intervention of a LDP civil war.

[jaichind]

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (18% of the vote in)

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        35.0%
Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       33.1%
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        29.4%
pro-JCP                                                              2.4%
Minor independent                                              0.1%

Nothing from 金沢市(Kanazawa) yet so Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa) is most likely underestimated here.

[jaichind]

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (43% of the vote in)

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        37.0%
Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       33.9%
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        26.3%
pro-JCP                                                              2.6%
Minor independent                                              0.4%

Almost nothing from 金沢市(Kanazawa) yet so Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa) is most likely underestimated here

[jaichind]

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (59% of the vote in)

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        36.0%
Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       35.2%
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        25.8%
pro-JCP                                                              2.5%
Minor independent                                              0.4%

Almost nothing from 金沢市(Kanazawa).  Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa) will gain a bunch from 金沢市(Kanazawa) when it comes in but most likely not enough.  Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP is most likely stronger than Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP.   Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP is in a strong position to win now.

[jaichind]

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (67% of the vote in)

Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       36.5%
Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        34.8%
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        25.5%
pro-JCP                                                              2.7%
Minor independent                                              0.5%

Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP  takes the lead but 金沢市(Kanazawa) comes in it will be heavy for Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)  and Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP  will most likely get more votes out of there than Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP.

[jaichind]

Everything expect for 金沢市(Kanazawa) are in. 金沢市(Kanazawa)  results will decide this 3 way battle.

[jaichind]

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (76% of the vote in)

Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       36.1%
Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        34.5%
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        26.2%
pro-JCP                                                              2.6%
Minor independent                                              0.6%

Some 金沢市(Kanazawa) coming in but so far is splitting the vote between the 3 front runners evenly. Only later in the count will there be a break for one of them which is certain to be the former pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa).  The question is, by how much.

[jaichind]

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (85% of the vote in)

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        35.1%
Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       33.9%
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        27.7%
pro-JCP                                                              2.8%
Minor independent                                              0.6%

More of 金沢市(Kanazawa) is coming in and as expected Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP is gaining on the former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP and retakes the lead.  Although the former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)  will gain the most of the rest but it seems will not be enough.

[jaichind]

NHK called the 石川(Ishikawa) governor race for Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP   

[jaichind]

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (99% of the vote in)

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        34.1%  (called winner by NHK)
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        32.8%
Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       30.1%
pro-JCP                                                              2.5%
Minor independent                                              0.5%

Almost 金沢市(Kanazawa) is in.  As expected Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa) gained a bunch but not enough to catch up.

[jaichind]

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (all counted)

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        34.1%   
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        32.7%
Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       29.9%
pro-JCP                                                              2.7%
Minor independent                                              0.5%

[jaichind]

Latest JX PR poll (change from Feb 2022)


LDP    31.2 (-1.3)
KP       5.4 (+0.1)
PNHK   0.8 (-0.1)
JRP    17.8 (-1.4)
DPP     2.3 (-0.2)
CDP   19.1 (+5.2)
RS       1.2 (-0.2)
SDP     0.8 (-0.2)
JCP      6.0 (-0.5)

CDP regains ground that it lost in Feb at the expense of everyone else.

[jaichind]

With energy prices rising I suspect the issue of nuclear plant restart will gain traction.  LDP pro nuclear plan reopening will gain from this issue. 

[jaichind]

JX poll for Tokyo Upper House elections

PR vote

LDP    22.6
KP       5.5
JRP      6.5
DPP     1.3
CDP   11.9
RS       1.3
SDP     0.7
JCP      8.0

Undecided 41



6- member district race

Sure to win
CDP incumbent (Renho)
LDP incumbent
KP incumbent

In the running
JCP incumbent
second LDP candidate
JRP
second CDP candidate
TPFA (backed by DPP)


So 5 candidates in the running are in the race for the last 3 seats.  I am pretty sure the JCP incumbent will make it.  As for the rest it depends on
a) how much of the JRP vote can the DPP-backed TPFA take from JRP
b) CDP's Renho will for sure take a bunch of floating votes.  The question is how much of that are pro-LDP vs pro-CDP floating votes?  If Renho takes a bunch of pro-LDP floating votes then perhaps the second CDP candidate can get in.  If not the second LDP candidate will get in.

[jaichind]

Mainichi poll

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval 48(+3)/38(-8)

Kishida has a positive gender gap with women.  Men approval of Kishida cabinet 46/43 while women approval of Kishida cabinet 52/30 which is a reveal of the pattern during the Abe era
 

PR vote
LDP      31(--)
KP         2(-1)
JRP      14(-5)
DPP       5(+1)
CDP     12(+3)
RS         3(-1)
JCP        4(-1)

CDP regained some lost ground that it lost in Feb when former PM and now CDP MP Naoto Kan claimed that JRP were like Hitler which led to a firestorm and loss of support for CDP.

[jaichind]

Mainichi poll

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval 48(+3)/38(-8)

Kishida has a positive gender gap with women.  Men approval of Kishida cabinet 46/43 while women approval of Kishida cabinet 52/30 which is a reveal of the pattern during the Abe era
 

PR vote
LDP      31(--)
KP         2(-1)
JRP      14(-5)
DPP       5(+1)
CDP     12(+3)
RS         3(-1)
JCP        4(-1)

CDP regained some lost ground that it lost in Feb when former PM and now CDP MP Naoto Kan claimed that JRP were like Hitler which led to a firestorm and loss of support for CDP.

What would you say is the biggest reason for this gender gap?

Just speculation.  Kishida is low-key when compared to Abe which gives Japanese women voters a sense of safety and security. Also, a period of international geopolitical turmoil also is likely to consolidate women voters to rally around the government as a source of stability.   Abe projects an image of principle and action which appeals to Japanese men.  Of course in reality Abe talks a good game but really did not do much in terms of real change.

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20220327-XMGZZAPRS5NK3BLIXFI7TZDNSY/

JRP leader and current mayor of Osaka City 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) gave a speech pointing out the goal of the JRP is to displace CDP in the next general election as the main opposition of Japan.  He also laid out the JRP goals for the upcoming Upper House election.   He indicated on the PR vote the JRP goal would be to overtake CDP in terms of vote share.  As for district elections, JRP will focus on 東京   (Tokyo), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 大阪(Osaka), 兵庫(Hyōgo), and 京都(Kyoto).  The first four are not a surprise since JRP won seats there in the 2019 Upper House elections.  京都(Kyoto) being on the list means that JRP will go all out to win a seat in this 2- member district.  Historically 2- member 京都(Kyoto) has been LDP winning one seat with DPJ/DP/CDP vs JCP for the second.  It now seems JRP is going to come in and turn it into a 3 way battle between CDP JCP and JRP for the second seat.  This seat will get even more interesting and exciting for election night.

[jaichind]

What would be a realistic ceiling for CDP and separately JRP in a lower house election? Like if they had a really good night?

We have to break up the seats into district and PR.

In 2021 CDP won 57 district seats and 39 PR seats for 96 seats overall.  CDP was within striking distance in around 35 district seats that easily could have gone its way if it had overperformed versus underperformed.  On the PR slate, DPP JRP RS overperformed which ate into the CDP PR vote, and CDP at 39 PR seats was pretty much at the bottom of CW projections. I figure CDP getting 48 PR seats would be a reasonable number in a CDP outperforming election.  So that gets CDP to 140 or even 145.  In fact, pre-2021 election 145 was around where the pro-CDP projections had it.

In 2021 JRP won 16 district seats and 25 seats for 41 seats overall.  It already swept all non-KP seats in 大阪(Osaka) so they hit their ceiling there already in 2021.  In 兵庫(Hyōgo) they won 1 seat but had all JRP PR voters in 兵庫(Hyōgo) in district races JPR would have won 3.  One more would be close so one figures JRP on a good night could have won 3 more district seats.  It seems unlikely JRP can expect to win any other district race outside these two prefectures.  As for PR 25 seats for JRP was clearly an outperforming performance.  In theory, JRP's cap is its 2012 performance of 40 PR seats but understand that 2012 JRP was really an alliance of the Osaka JRP core plus a bunch of DPJ YP and LDP defectors outside of Osaka most of whom have ended up retiring or going back to CDP DPP or LDP.  Realistically 35 PR seats are the best the JRP can currently expect.  So that puts the JRP cap at something like 54 seats.

For JRP to have a real big breakout would require either

a) DPP to merge with it.  This is not likely as Rengo would be opposed to this. Rengo wants to have a party, however small, that it can control which would be DPP.  Rengo would be fine with DPP forming an alliance with JRP and CDP to beat back its duel enemies of LDP and JCP but would not back DPP merging with JRP

b) Mega CDP split or meltdown with a large number of CDP defectors coming over to JRP.  This would be the re-run of 2012 which for now seems unlikely as CDP with DPP separated have a greater level of ideological coherence even if it is split on how to prioritize alliance making (focus on DPP or even JRP vs focus on JCP)

c) A great LDP split a faction of LDP splitting out and merging with JRP.  While unlikely this seems like the best bet for JRP. This will also potentially get most of DPP to jump ship to join this new enlarged party.

If c) were to take place it could be the fulfillment of an old non-LDP non-JCP center-right opposition prophecy of "the party" which has been around since the early 1990s.  The prophecy of "the party" is a dream of the non-LDP non-JCP center-right opposition where the balance of Japanese politics will be created when a great LDP split takes place and one of the LDP splinters, known as "the party", merges with the non-LDP non-JCP center-right opposition to form LDP II and Japan can have a 2 party system like the USA with LDP I vs LDP II.  There have been many false prophets.  First Ozawa's NFP in the mid-1990s was supposed to be "the party" but broke up.  Then when LP merged into DPJ in the early 2000s they thought was the DPJ could outflank the LDP on the right on economic issues and become "the party".  But DPJ then moved left on economic reform and imploded anyway due to its disastrous term in office from 2009-to 2012.  In 2010 it was thought that LDP libertarian splinter YP could be "the party" but they really never grew out of their niche.  In 2012 Osaka based LDP splinter JRP was supposed to be "the party" but by 2015 it became more of an Osaka regional force than something more national.  In 2017 HP was supposed to be "the party" but it was a flop and HP de facto disbanded and became rump DPP.  Each incarnation of "the party" provoked various defections from LDP and other Center-Left parties hoping to join in on "the party" as it fulfilled its destiny.  All of them were disappointed when "the party" they defected to ended up not being the true prophet.  So for many in JRP and DPP, they continue to wait for the next coming of "the party" from a great LDP split in the future.