2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022

[jaichind]

Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)

KMT         55
DPP          44
TPP            1

Again, last minute collapse of TPP in favor of KMT

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Chiang Kai-shek would be proud.  This is a blue wave that I fully support.

Note that during this entire campaign the DPP never really attacked Chiang the Elder and Chiang the Younger as part of their campaign against KMT Chiang.  The reason comes down to the two Prez Chiangs, however, they treated the proto-DPP, was anti-CCP.  For the DPP that is a legacy their want to try to absorb into their political appeal.

Do you think they'll have any success with that strategy?

[jaichind]

There are clear signs of KMT-TPP tactical voting across the board.  The only exception is Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4).  This is positive for a possible KMT-TPP grand alliance to take on Lai in 2024.  Guo is the best candidate for such a united front campaign.

[jaichind]

All eyes are on DPP Prez Tsai to see if she will resign as DPP Chairperson.  If she does that is the end of Tsai's power in the DPP and harold the takeover of Lai

[jaichind]

Chiang Kai-shek would be proud.  This is a blue wave that I fully support.

Note that during this entire campaign the DPP never really attacked Chiang the Elder and Chiang the Younger as part of their campaign against KMT Chiang.  The reason comes down to the two Prez Chiangs, however, they treated the proto-DPP, was anti-CCP.  For the DPP that is a legacy their want to try to absorb into their political appeal.

Do you think they'll have any success with that strategy?

Tsai's 2016 and 2020 campaign is a clear demonstration of the success of that strategy.  Of course, Tsai is not a typical DPP politician and is in a unique position to pick up part of the KMT base.  Her 2016 and 2020 campaign was fairly respectful of the two Chiangs.  She herself was light blue pro-KMT before 2000.

[jaichind]

In Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) it is

KMT Chiang              42
DPP Chen                 32
pro-TPP Huang          26

More convergence to my vote share prediction

The vote share has not changed for the last hour.  This will be the result

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Chiang Kai-shek would be proud.  This is a blue wave that I fully support.

Note that during this entire campaign the DPP never really attacked Chiang the Elder and Chiang the Younger as part of their campaign against KMT Chiang.  The reason comes down to the two Prez Chiangs, however, they treated the proto-DPP, was anti-CCP.  For the DPP that is a legacy their want to try to absorb into their political appeal.

Do you think they'll have any success with that strategy?

Tsai's 2016 and 2020 campaign is a clear demonstration of the success of that strategy.  Of course, Tsai is not a typical DPP politician and is in a unique position to pick up part of the KMT base.  Her 2016 and 2020 campaign was fairly respectful of the two Chiangs.  She herself was light blue pro-KMT before 2000.

I guess that's what has made her more successful than Chen, who from what I've read was obsessed with fighting an anti-KMT culture war.

Do you think Lai will be easier to defeat in 2024?

[jaichind]

 Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)

DPP              49.5
KMT              46
TSU rebel       2.5
Pan-Blue        1.5

This has to be the best Pan-Blue result here in terms of vote share in any election since the early 1990s.  Lai is behind this.  Payback to Tsai for what she did to him in the 2019 DPP Primary for Prez

[jaichind]

I guess that's what has made her more successful than Chen, who from what I've read was obsessed with fighting an anti-KMT culture war.

Do you think Lai will be easier to defeat in 2024?

Lai is hard to beat.  He will be able to max out DPP turnout.

KMT Chu vs DPP Lai -> Lai wins
KMT Chu vs DPP Lai vs TPP Ko -> Lai landslide
KMT-TPP Guo vs DPP Lai -> Lean Guo
KMT Hou vs DPP Lai vs TPP Ko -> Lai wins
KMT Hou vs DPP Lai -> Tossup slightly favors Lai

No matter what Chu must NOT run in 2024 and instead try to organize a KMT-TPP grand alliance with Guo as the candidate or get TPP to stand down for Hou to run.

[jaichind]

Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)

KMT    67  (incumbant)
DPP    33

The DPP candidate is an aborigine and totally underperformed.  I thought she would be able to pick up some of the normally very pro-KMT aborigine votes.  I guess not.


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)

KMT    62  (incumbant)
DPP    38

The DPP candidate is the MP here (only because the very pro-KMT aborigine vote does not for in legislative races but for a set of aborigine seats) and has run for this position for years.  He actually did a bit better than I expected

[greengod]

Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)

KMT    67  (incumbant)
DPP    33

The DPP candidate is an aborigine and totally underperformed.  I thought she would be able to pick up some of the normally very pro-KMT aborigine votes.  I guess not.


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)

KMT    62  (incumbant)
DPP    38

The DPP candidate is the MP here (only because the very pro-KMT aborigine vote does not for in legislative races but for a set of aborigine seats) and has run for this position for years.  He actually did a bit better than I expected

I think Yotaka's drunk driving charge is problem.

[jaichind]

Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Even)

KMT        58  (incumbent)
DPP         42


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +6)

KMT        58  (incumbent)
DPP         42

Both have the KMT incumbent outperforming.  But that is expected in a low energy low turnout election.

[jaichind]

The election commission data is now catching up to the media results some of which were made up anyway.  Going forward I will use CEC data.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)

KMT    67  (incumbant)
DPP    33

The DPP candidate is an aborigine and totally underperformed.  I thought she would be able to pick up some of the normally very pro-KMT aborigine votes.  I guess not.


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)

KMT    62  (incumbant)
DPP    38

The DPP candidate is the MP here (only because the very pro-KMT aborigine vote does not for in legislative races but for a set of aborigine seats) and has run for this position for years.  He actually did a bit better than I expected

I think Yotaka's drunk driving charge is problem.

Welcome to the forum!

[jaichind]

Predict vote share versus what is in CEC

I am pretty happy with my vote share predictions overall

             Predicted                              CEC count

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) (KMT flip from TPP)
KMT         43%                                    42.48%
DPP         31%                                    31.73%
pro-TPP    23%                                    25.19%


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +1)
KMT         60% (incumbant)                 62.33%
DPP          40%                                   37.67%


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) (KMT flip from DPP)
KMT         47%                                    52.01%
DPP         40%                                     40.09%
DPP rebel   7%                                       2.83%
TPP           6%                                       5.07%


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +1)
KMT         60%  (incumbant)                 59.34%
DPP          39.5%                                 38.96%


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP          60%                                   48.92%
KMT          33%                                   43.51%   
Pan-Blue     5.5%                                  2.78%
TSU rebel    1%                                     4.33%


Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +6)
DPP         61% (incumbent)                 58.29%
KMT         38%                                   39.97%
 
 
Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7) (KMT flip from DPP)
KMT           48%                                 52.84%
DPP            45.5%                              39.17%
NPP              4%                                  6.44%
KMT rebel     2%                                  1.20%   


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           49% (incumbent)             50.34%
DPP            44%                               41.44%
TPP              6%                                 7.04%


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +12)
KMT           63% (incumbent)             65.19%   
DPP            36%                               30.48%


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) (TPP flip from DPP !!!)
TPP             41%                               43.51%
DPP             36%                               36.32%
KMT            22%                               18.95%

 
Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11) (KMT rebel flip from KMT !!!)
KMT rebel     40%                              43.65%
DPP              34%                             31.07%
KMT             18%                              12.36%
NPP               7%                               11.26%


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Even)
KMT             55.5% (incumbent)          56.89%
DPP              44%                               41.76%


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +5)
KMT             61%                               56.00%   
DPP              38.5%                            42.86%


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +6)
KMT              55% (incumbent)           56.12%
DPP              44%                              42.12%   
 

Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              61% (incumbent)           63.72%
KMT              39%                             36.28%
 

Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +4)  (election delayed due to death of a minor candidate)
KMT             53% (incumbent)
DPP             45%
 

Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +6)
DPP             51%                             49.36%
KMT             43%                            46.48%
NPP               6%                              4.17%


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            64%  (incumbent)         62.30%
DPP             35%                            35.64%
 

Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            61%  (incumbent)         64.05%
DPP             38%                            32.46%


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) (chaotic 3-way battle)
KMT             39%  (incumbent)          32.92%
DPP              37%(former incumbent) 36.46%
KMT rebel     24%                              30.63%

[jaichind]

DPP totally underperformed in the North.   DPP Prez Tsai is in big trouble.

[jaichind]

KMT rebel (and former KMT incumbent) defeat the KMT incumbent in 金門縣(Kinmen County.)

[jaichind]

KMT finally wins re-election in Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6).  The KMT has not won here twice in a row here since the 1970s.

[jaichind]

Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)  KMT candidate 謝龍介(Hsieh Lung-Chieh) is a KMT superstar given his total outperformance.  He is already 61 but I can see a KMT Chiang-Hsieh ticket in 2032 if Lai wins in 2024 and wins re-election in 2028.

[jaichind]

CEC vote share by party so far has

KMT        50.08%
DPP         42.00%
TPP           1.25%
NPP           0.45%

Pro-TPP is   3.27%
KMT rebels  1.49%
DPP rebel    0.66%

Which gives us

Pan-Blue    56.09%
Pan-Green  43.11%

Worst Pan-Green vote share in mayor/county magistrate elections since 1985 if this does not change.

[jaichind]

Incumbents outperformed everywhere, opposition outperforms in open seats.  The main exceptions are  Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) where a very strong KMT rebel campaign upset the KMT incumbent and threw the race to the former DPP incumbent and Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) where it is not clear why there was a complete DPP incumbent underperformance and complete KMT overperformance.

[jaichind]

Japan's ROC politics expert 小笠原欣幸 (Ogasawara Yoshiyuki) predicts KMT wins 15 mayor/county magistrate seats, DPP 5, TPP 1, and Independent 1 (KMT rebel).

His prediction matches mine exactly with the only exception of Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) where I have the KMT incumbent barely hanging on against the former DPP incumbent that he defeated in 2018 and a KMT rebel but he has it as a DPP flip. 

I think if there is one projection of mine that I am not sure about it would be Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) given the strength of the former DPP incumbent and the unknown dynamic of the KMT rebel.  Still, I think KMT incumbent is more likely to win given the low-keyed campaign so far which should favor incumbents across the board.

In fact, my projection for this year has no incumbents losing but a lot of flips in open seats.

With Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) more likely to go DPP this guy got it on the nail.

BTW, this Japanese academic is historically close to the DPP and was attacked by the DPP after he made his prediction of DPP defeat.  That attack seems to have surprised him and he pretty much took back his prediction and said he will research it some more.  He was right of course.

[jaichind]

I have to do some counting but it seems KMT has a chance of holding on to control of Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +6) city assembly.

[jaichind]

DPP Prez Tsai speaks at a press conference.  She is wearing a mask.  Sigh...   She resigns as DPP Chairperson.

[jaichind]

Predicted vote share versus what is in CEC

Count is done or almost done in most places.

             Predicted                              CEC count

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) (KMT flip from TPP)
KMT         43%                                    42.31%
DPP         31%                                    31.91%
pro-TPP    23%                                    25.15%


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +1)
KMT         60% (incumbant)                 62.42%
DPP          40%                                   37.58%


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) (KMT flip from DPP)
KMT         47%                                    52.02%
DPP         40%                                     40.03%
DPP rebel   7%                                       2.82%
TPP           6%                                       5.12%


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +1)
KMT         60%  (incumbant)                 59.35%
DPP          39.5%                                 38.93%


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP          60%                                   48.80%
KMT          33%                                   43.63%   
Pan-Blue     5.5%                                  2.77%
TSU rebel    1%                                     4.35%


Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +6)
DPP         61% (incumbent)                 58.10%
KMT         38%                                   40.16%
 
 
Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7) (KMT flip from DPP)
KMT           48%                                 52.92%
DPP            45.5%                              39.01%
NPP              4%                                  6.56%
KMT rebel     2%                                  1.17%   


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           49% (incumbent)             50.81%
DPP            44%                               41.08%
TPP              6%                                 6.98%


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +12)
KMT           63% (incumbent)             63.50%   
DPP            36%                               32.21%


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) (TPP flip from DPP !!!)
TPP             41%                               45.02%
DPP             36%                               35.68%
KMT            22%                               18.08%

 
Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11) (KMT rebel flip from KMT !!!)
KMT rebel     40%                              42.65%
DPP              34%                             31.25%
KMT             18%                              11.00%
NPP               7%                               13.44%


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Even)
KMT             55.5% (incumbent)          56.80%
DPP              44%                               41.89%


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +5)
KMT             61%                               55.92%   
DPP              38.5%                            42.90%


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +6)
KMT              55% (incumbent)           56.50%
DPP              44%                              41.68%   
 

Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              61% (incumbent)           62.84%
KMT              39%                             37.16%
 

Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +4)  (election delayed due to death of a minor candidate)
KMT             53% (incumbent)
DPP             45%
 

Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +6)
DPP             51%                             49.11%
KMT             43%                            46.57%
NPP               6%                              4.32%


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            64%  (incumbent)         61.34%
DPP             35%                            36.55%
 

Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            61%  (incumbent)         64.57%
DPP             38%                            32.15%


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) (chaotic 3-way battle)
KMT             39%  (incumbent)          33.03%
DPP              37%(former incumbent) 36.88%
KMT rebel     24%                              30.10%