2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022

[jaichind]

I was able to complete a candidate-by-candidate mapping of all independent candidates for the various city/county assembly elections and now can present vote share by the bloc as well as a comparison with 2018.

Blocs:
Deep Blue: Pro-unification parties like NP
Blue: KNT
Light Blue: KMT allies like NPB, PFP, pro-KMT independents, KMT rebels
White: TPP, TPP rebels
Light Green: DPP allies like GP, SDP, pro-DPP independents, DPP rebels, and minor left/feminist parties
Green: DPP
Deep Green: pro-independence TSU NPP TSP as week as independents aligned with them

Note in 2018 pro-Ko candidates counted as Light Green a majority of them had Pan-Green backgrounds.  In 2022 almost all TPP candidates have Pan-Blue backgrounds.  The only one was the daughter of a 2018 pro-Ko candidate with a Pan-Green candidate who got a lot fewer votes than her father and lost (as most of her father's vote must have gone back to vote Pan-Green candidates). As a result, we can count White as part of the Pan-Blue umbrella.

                             Seats             Vote share          
2018                  
Deep Blue                  6                     0.74%
Blue                       394                  40.39%
Light Blue               192                  16.04%
Light Green              61                    7.82%
Green                    238                   31.05%
Deep Green              21                     3.86%

                            Seats              Vote share
2022                  
Deep Blue                 3                      0.47%
Blue                      367                    37.75%
Light Blue              186                    14.94%
White                      16                      4.30%
Light Green              46                     5.19%
Green                    277                    33.28%
Deep Green              14                     3.88%

The Blue/Green vote share balance went from 57.17%/42.73% in 2018 to 57.46%/42.35% or almost no change. The Pan-Greens gained 17 seats relative to 2022 mostly due to DPP this time did a much better job of minimizing DPP rebels and coordinating with allies and pro-DPP independents as well as some in the Deep Green camp.

Relative to 2018 the KMT was able to, in Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3), get a pro-DPP KMT splinter bloc to merge back into the KMT so that helped push up the Pan-Blue vote and seat count a bit.  On the flip side in Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) the DPP was able to get a few pro-KMT independents and KMT ally NPB MLAs (or their children running in their place) to defect and run for DPP bringing their vote with them into the DPP camp.

As a whole one should expect the Pan-Green camp vote share to increase over time as part of convergence toward the mean.  The Pan-Blues are very strong in these elections due to the power of pro-KMT factions.  The distribution of local faction power is

Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +8) - clear DPP edge
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6) - slight DPP edge
Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11), Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +6) - Even
Everywhere else - Clear KMT edge

Which clearly helps the Pan-Blues to have a clear edge in these assemblies.  Still, the power of factions is in secular decline so every cycle I expect a slight uptick for Pan-Greens in terms of votes all things equal.  This time it did not take place because

a) Pan-Greens at a lot more disciplined about the number of candidates which helped it gain seats but hurt it in terms of vote share
b) TPP running this year where its candidates gets mostly Pan-Blue votes but also some marginal youth votes as well many of which might have gone to the Pan-Greens

[jaichind]

UDN map of mayor/county magistrate elections of 2014 2018 and 2022

2014
Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) was pro-DPP (Ko)
Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20) and 金門縣(Kinmen County) are KMT rebel


2018
Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) was proto-TPP (Ko)


2022
Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11) and 金門縣(Kinmen County) are KMT rebel

[jaichind]

We still have Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +4) mayor election on Dec 18th.  When the election was delayed due to the death of a minor candidate the KMT claimed foul saying that is a DPP trick to delay the election so DPP can throw everything it has on the later election.

So far that does not seem to be what is going on.  The DPP seems much more focused on rival factions circling each other to gain positions for the election of DPP Chairperson, PM position, and 2024 DPP Prez nomination and not throwing everything into the race to win.

[Continential]

What percentage of Taiwanese would support reunification with China?

[Tintrlvr]

What percentage of Taiwanese would support reunification with China?

Definitely sub-20%, possibly sub-10%, at least under current conditions. Obviously a democratic China would be a different story.

https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/09/02/three-reasons-why-taiwanese-people-are-increasingly-opposed-to-reunification-with-china/

[jaichind]

What percentage of Taiwanese would support reunification with China?

The ROC Mainland Affairs Council has been doing polling on this since the early 1990s.  The more recent polls have Unification/Independence at around ~10/~25.  Around ~30 say "status quo for now and make a decision later" which can be read as "open to unification but only if conditions are right" and ~30 say "status quo forever" which can be read as "want de facto independence but do not want to risk war so let's just go with Two Chinas indefinitely"

This has shifted in favor of independence fairly dramatically since the 1990s when Unification/Independence at around ~25/~15.  Of course Unification back then was much more abstract and any such unification terms back then will be a lot better than any deal ROC can get today.  As Unification gets more real and terms get "worse" clearly opinion shift against it.

Of course, other polls that do ask "what do you think will be the final result of PRC-ROC standoff": clear majorities say "forced reunification imposed by PRC"

[jaichind]

City/County assembly Pan-Green vote share and swing from 2018
                                    
Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4)                       40.52%          -2.17%      
New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +1)               42.51%          -2.40%
Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4)                    42.39%         +2.35%
Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +1)                   39.83%          -0.10%
Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)                  57.94%          +2.11%
Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +6)              51.48%          +2.35%
Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7)                    35.19%          -0.79%
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)                  51.51%          -0.54%
Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +12)              20.94%          +2.01%
Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3)                     34.59%         -18.83%
Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)                 27.77%          +5.58%
Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Even)                  37.05%          +3.56%
Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +5)                   28.72%           -0.51%
Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +6)                 41.58%           -1.87%
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +8)                   59.24%           -5.68%
Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +4)                        47.48%          +0.53%
Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +6)                   45.13%          -1.15%
Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)               17.74%          +2.62%
Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)                17.37%          +1.92%
Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)                  23.41%          -1.98%

Mostly reversion to the mean.  Very little correlation to 2018-2022 swings at the mayor/county magistrate level which highlights the critical nature of candidate quality for both type of races.

The few places where Pan-Greens outperformed in 2018 (Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +8), Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +6)) they lost ground.  In places where Pan-Greens totally messed up (Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Even), Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +6), Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) ) the Pan-Greens gained ground.  

There is also a reversion to the mean where Pan-Greens are gaining ground in ultra-Blue counties (Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18), Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20))

In urban areas where TPP did well (Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4), New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +1)) the Pan-Greens clearly lost ground to TPP.

Pan-Green gains in Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) seem to be based on defections from a few KMT ally NPB MLAs (or their children) that this time around are running for DPP and bring their own factional vote with them over to the Pan-Green camp.

Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) is an extreme version of the same thing where a local pro-DPP KMT splinter merged back into KMT after 2018 and their vote moved with them back to the Pan-Blues.  If you take this shift into account the Pan-Green vote was flat relative to 2018.

Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11) is a combination of reversion to mean as well as the KMT civil war driving marginal Pan-Blue voters over to the Pan-Greens.  Of course, the same logic does not seem to apply to Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) where a KMT civil war actually led to a loss of ground by the Pan-Greens.

[jaichind]

As far as city/county assembly control it should be KMT/Pan-Blue control everywhere except for

Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +8)  - clearly DPP control
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6) - KMT kept edge from 2018 and should control as long as Pan-Blue independents do not defect
Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +6) - Very tiny Pan-Blue majority of 33-32.  Will come down to the wire on which side wins the Speaker post
Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) - Should be DPP control but there is a chance of a repeat of 2018 when non-New Tide DPP joined forces with Pan-Blue to shut out the New Tide-dominated DPP
Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +4) - Pan-Blue has a slight edge but will require KMT to coordinate well with the pro-KMT Hsiao faction.  In 2018 this did not take place and power shifted to a Pan-Green slate.

[Continential]

What percentage of Taiwanese would support reunification with China?

Of course, other polls that do ask "what do you think will be the final result of PRC-ROC standoff": clear majorities say "forced reunification imposed by PRC"

Would mass emigration happen under forced reunification?

[Continential]

Also what is the relationship between the KMT and Deep Blue parties?

[jaichind]

What percentage of Taiwanese would support reunification with China?

Of course, other polls that do ask "what do you think will be the final result of PRC-ROC standoff": clear majorities say "forced reunification imposed by PRC"

Would mass emigration happen under forced reunification?

Well, it depends on what "forced reunification" actually means.  Remember the PRC position reunification has always ruled out PLA being stationed in Taiwan Province.  So in most scenarioss, even a coerced reunification would involve Taiwan Province being autonomous and without PLA military presence.  Only in the case where a real live war breaks out would it lead to PLA being in Taiwan Province.

Remember that 1.5 million ROC voters actually live and work in PRC.  I am sure at least 15%-20% of them are for independence but dose does not stop them from living and working on the Mainland.  There is a big difference between "for" and "would not accept anything else."

Unification talks between Mainland and Taiwan are not new.  In the early 1680s, we had a rump Ming government in Taiwan facing off against the Ching government on the Mainland.  The talks were going not badly and mostly agreed to unification with Taiwan as an autonomous region without Ching's military presence and only broke down over the issue of the change of hairstyle from Ming elites in Taiwan to the Ching hairstyle.  The hairstyle was like religion in Europe at that time (think Catholics vs Protestants in the 30-year war.)   After talks broke down the Ching launched an invasion and took over Taiwan in 1683.

[MoreThanPolitics]

Map of the mayoral election in Taipei:

[jaichind]

The plagiarism scandal rolls on.  After Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) DPP mayor 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) had to drop out of the race for mayor of Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4)  after Taiwan University revoked his Master's degree over plagiarism of his paper the current DPP mayor Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) who is stepping down 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan) just had his Taiwan University Master's degree revoked over plagiarism of his Master's thesis. 

During the campaign, a combination of KMT and NP MLAs raised concerns that 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan)'s Master thesis, just like 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien), had a massive amount of duplication of other research papers.  Both were students of professor 陳明通(Chen Ming-tong) who is now the DPP head of the National Security Bureau.  Taiwan University also made the call that they do not want professor 陳明通(Chen Ming-tong) to return as a professor given the track record of plagiarism of his (mostly DPP dignitaries) students.

By DPP losing  Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan) is already out as a possible DPP Prez candidate for 2024 but he still has hopes to become PM or DPP Prez.  This development makes this a lot less likely.

The KMT is crying foul that  Taiwan University came out with their decision only after the election since doing so before most likely would have hammered DPP even more.  Of course, the DPP could counter-complain that if anti-COVID lockdown protests in PRC started a couple of weeks earlier that would have dominated the news that DPP would have done better.

[jaichind]

Also what is the relationship between the KMT and Deep Blue parties?

The only relevant Deep Blue party is NP which for FPTP elections just backs KMT but will contest against KMT in multi-member elections.  Most pro-Unification voters mostly vote KMT anyway as NP is no longer viable in most multi-member seats. 

[jaichind]

If seems current Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) mayor 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan)'s Master thesis was not found to be plagiarised back when he wrote it years ago because he copied a research paper from Mainland China.  The ROC academic computer system that searches for paper duplication does not include large amounts of research papers from the PRC.  It seems 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan) of the person 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan) paid to write this paper knew this so they copied a research paper from the PRC.  Now they are caught.  So much for DPP being a Taiwan Independence party.  They cannot even be independent of a PRC research paper.

[jaichind]

The development of 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan) and plagiarism now blow up another Tsai plan.  I think Tsai's plan is to have 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan) run for DPP Prez.  Now, this might blow up.  If this opens up for Lai to perhaps run for DPP Prez himself.  That will really complicate Tsai's plan to block Lai.

[jaichind]

Fun picture from the election campaign back in August.

While the plagiarism scandal for Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) DPP mayor 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) was blowing up and before he had to drop out of the race for Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) a NP city assembly candidate 游智彬 (Yo Tse-Bing) appeared at a televised 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) campaign event wearing a shirt with the large word "Copy" on it.  He then got on stage with 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) who thought he was a supporter and was cheering with him on stage.   Only after a minute or so did someone from 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien)'s staff figure out what is going out and pulled 游智彬 (Yo Tse-Bing) off the stage.   游智彬 (Yo Tse-Bing) ended up not winning but will always be remembered for pulling a fast one on 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien).

游智彬 (Yo Tse-Bing) wearing a shirt with the word "Copy" on the Left and 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) on the Right.

[jaichind]

DPP MP for Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7) and losing candidate for mayor 蔡適應 (Tsai Tse-Yin) just had his Doctorate removed by Taiwan for plagiarism on his doctoral thesis.  During the campaign, the NPP alleged that he also plagiarized his doctoral thesis paper.  It seems Taiwan University looked into it and concurred.    Again this came out after the election.  I guess it does not matter since 蔡適應 (Tsai Tse-Yin) lost by an unexpectedly large margin.  There was talk of 蔡適應 (Tsai Tse-Yin) being put into the cabinet but I guess that is out.  In fact he will likely face defeat when he runs for re-election in 2024.

[jaichind]

Post-election Ettoday rank of TOP 10 political leaders



Back in May it was


We can do swings on key people on the list

侯友宜(Hou You-yi).  KMT mayor of 新北市(New Taipei City): Rank 1 -> 1 (+3.6)
賴清德(Lai Ching-te). DPP VP and former PM: Rank 2 -> Rank 2 -> 2 (+4.1)
柯文哲(Ko Wen-je).  TPP mayor of 臺北市 (Taipei City): Rank 3 -> 3 (+5.6)
蔣萬安(Chiang Wan-an).  KMT mayor-elect of 臺北市 (Taipei City): Rank 7 -> 4 (+12.9)
郭台銘(Terry Gou). Pro-KMT CEO of Foxconn: Rank 4 -> 5 (+1.3)
盧秀燕(Lu Shiow-yen). KMT mayor of 臺中市(Taichung City): Rank 8 -> 6 (+15.8 )
陳其邁(Chen Chi-mai). DPP mayor of 高雄市(Kaoshiung City): Rank 5 -> 7 (+2.4)
鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-tsan). Departing DPP mayor of 桃園市(Taoyuan City): Rank 6 -> 8 (-5.8 )

KMT 臺北市 (Taipei City) Mayor elect 蔣萬安(Chiang Wan-an) and KMT mayor of 臺中市(Taichung City) 盧秀燕(Lu Shiow-yen) are the big gainers.  The main loser is the Departing DPP mayor of 桃園市(Taoyuan City) 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-tsan).  And this poll is before the news that his Masters degree was removed by Taiwan University due to plagiarism.

Note that 2020 KMT Prez candidate Han and KMT Chairperson Chu now made it into the top 10.

[jaichind]

The results of the mayor election in Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) were the real shock of this cycle.

It was

DPP               48.80%  (incumbent)
KMT               43.63%
TSU rebel        4.35%
Pan-Blue Ind.   2.77%

The discussion pre-election was more about if the DPP incumbent can cross 60%.  It was expected that the margin of victory in Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) was likely to be the largest of the 6 major cities.  It ended up being the closest.

The city assembly election was
                  
                   Seats        Vote share
KMT              15              25.88%
Light Blue        8             13.66%
TPP                 0               2.33%
Light Green      4             11.14%
DPP               28              41.92%
Deep Green      2               4.88%

It is clear the DPP incumbent 黃偉哲(Huang Wei-Che) ran far behind the Pan-Green city assembly vote.  And that is on top of the fact that some of the KMT assembly faction votes often vote DPP for mayor and national elections.  This type of city assembly election result should really have 黃偉哲(Huang Wei-Che) winning around 60% of the vote as the incumbent.  Post-election talk seems to indicate that 黃偉哲(Huang Wei-Che)'s underperformance has to do with him being viewed as two-faced by all DPP factions in Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11).

Back in 2018 黃偉哲(Huang Wei-Che) won the DPP primary as the de facto New Tide faction candidate beating the non-New Tide faction candidates.  One of the reasons why the anti-New Tide faction MLA broke with DPP to capture the city assembly speaker post in alliance with the Pan-Blues after the 2018 election was the view that 黃偉哲(Huang Wei-Che) and the New Tide faction were out to get them.  The 2022 KMT candidate 謝龍介(Hsieh Lung-Chieh) was the leader of the KMT in the city assembly in 2018 and worked with the anti-New Tide faction to capture the assembly speaker.

After 黃偉哲(Huang Wei-Che) took charge as mayor he did not support New Tide Lai's bid in the 2019-2020 DPP Prez Primary challenge against Tsai and started to move toward the Tsai faction.  By 2022 he sort of alienated himself from both the New Tide faction (viewing him as a traitor) and the anti-New Tide factions (viewing him as untrustworthy.)  So both the DPP New Tide and anti-New Tide factions went all out to get their assembly candidates election but really did nothing to rally votes for 黃偉哲(Huang Wei-Che) leading to his significant underperformance.  And that is in addition to some non-New Tide MLAs clearly shifting some of their support to KMT's 謝龍介(Hsieh Lung-Chieh) out of gratitude for his help in winning the city assembly speaker post after the 2018 elections.

[jaichind]

At this stage, there should be an across-the-board review of all Master's dissertation papers written by all active politicians after they began a career in politics.  If not, any postgraduate degree acquired by any politician after they began a life in politics will now be suspect.

DPP MP for Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7) and losing candidate for mayor 蔡適應 (Tsai Tse-Yin) refusal to resign as MP after having his doctorate degree removed by Taiwan University is playing very badly in pro-DPP youth circles.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At this stage, there should be an across-the-board review of all Master's dissertation papers written by all active politicians after they began a career in politics.  If not, any postgraduate degree acquired by any politician after they began a life in politics will now be suspect.

DPP MP for Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7) and losing candidate for mayor 蔡適應 (Tsai Tse-Yin) refusal to resign as MP after having his doctorate degree removed by Taiwan University is playing very badly in pro-DPP youth circles.

Academic fraud is, likely, far more common than most people expect it to be. Politicians probably just as likely to do it as the rest.

[jaichind]

PRC's Xinhua list of dignitaries expressing condolences for the death of former PRC leader Jiang includes KMT Chairperson Chu (expected given the level of historical respect CCP has for KMT), Former NP Chairperson Mu  (expected given his strong unificationist views) and surprisingly 侯友宜(Hou You-Yi) the current just re-elected KMT mayor of 新北市(New Taipei City).

Adding Hou seems to indicate that the CCP would view positively if Hou gets the KMT nomination for Prez in 2024 and is hopeful that he would be elected.   侯友宜(Hou You-Yi) has mostly stayed away from a more pro-PRC line within the KMT which is part of his cross-partisan appeal.  I guess the CCP is sending a message "we are fine with that, just make sure somebody from the KMT  beats DPP in 2024"

[jaichind]

Given the issue of plagiarism of 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan), the Departing DPP mayor of 桃園市(Taoyuan City), he is now unlikely to be DPP Chairperson.  Unless Lai tries to grab it himself most likely Tsai loyalist 蘇嘉全(Su Jia-Chuan), former county magistrate of Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +6) and former DPP Speaker of the Legislature, is now the most likely the next DPP Chairperson with the de facto job of trying to stop Lai from getting the 2024 DPP nomination.

[jaichind]

At this stage, there should be an across-the-board review of all Master's dissertation papers written by all active politicians after they began a career in politics.  If not, any postgraduate degree acquired by any politician after they began a life in politics will now be suspect.

DPP MP for Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7) and losing candidate for mayor 蔡適應 (Tsai Tse-Yin) refusal to resign as MP after having his doctorate degree removed by Taiwan University is playing very badly in pro-DPP youth circles.

Academic fraud is, likely, far more common than most people expect it to be. Politicians probably just as likely to do it as the rest.

In my view, they should set up a different type of degree that these active politicians can get, sort of like the Part-time MBA vs the regular MBA.  The reality is that people who are active politicians cannot possibly have the time to do research and write a master's thesis while doing a full-time job as a politician.  They should accept that and have a degree that takes less time and effort to make it even possible.