2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022

[jaichind]

Republic of China "9 in 1" 2012 elections.

The 9 layers being elected are

Special municipality Mayors
Special municipality Assembly
Special municipality Urban Zone heads
Special municipality Zone assembly
Aborigine Zone heads
County Magistrates
County Assembly
County Township/Village heads
County Township/Village assembly

[jaichind]

The most critical will be the various mayor and county magistrate elections

                                            Lean               incumbent
Fujian Province
  連江縣(Lienchiang County)  (Blue+38)              KMT
  金門縣(Kinmen County)      (Blue+37)              KMT

Taiwan Province
花蓮縣(Hualien County)        (Blue+20)             KMT
臺東縣(Taitung County)        (Blue+18)              KMT
新竹縣(Hsinchu County)       (Blue+12)              KMT
苗栗縣(Miaoli County)          (Blue+11)             Open
基隆市(Keelung City)            (Blue+7)              Open
南投縣(Nantou County)         (Blue+5)              KMT   
澎湖縣(Penghu County)         (Blue+4)              KMT
新竹市(Hsinchu City)             (Blue+3)             Open
彰化縣(Changhua County)      (Even)                KMT
嘉義市(Chiayi City)                (Green+4)           KMT
雲林縣(Yunlin County)           (Green+6)           KMT
宜蘭縣(Yilan County)             (Green+6)          KMT
屏東縣(Pingtung County)        (Green+6)          DPP
嘉義縣(Chiayi County)            (Green+8)          DPP


Special Municipalities
臺北市(Taipei City)                (Blue+4)             Open
桃園市(Taoyuan City)            (Blue+4)             Open
新北市(New Taipei City)         (Blue+1)             KMT
臺中市(Taichung City)            (Blue+1)             KMT
高雄市(Kaohsiung City)          (Green+6)          DPP
臺南市(Tainan City)                (Green+11)        DPP

Good News for KMT: All the Open seats are in lean Blue areas
Good News for DPP: Most competitive open seats are trending Green
Good News for KMT: The most recent referendum shows the open seat trending Green might be reversing

KMT holds a lot of lean Green areas due to the 2018 KMT landslide victory.  That actually included 高雄市(Kaohsiung City) until the KMT winner Han made the mistake of trying to run for ROC Prez in 2020 which was viewed as a slap on the people of 高雄市(Kaohsiung City).  After he lost in 2020 he was recalled and the DPP candidate he beat in 2018 was elected in the by-election.

The KMT look poised to sweep all the open seats and have a solid shot at holding the lean Green cities/counties since they are popular incumbents there.  The best DPP shot at a flip is 雲林縣(Yunlin County)  where there are rumors that the DPP might run a MP who former popular county magsirate. 

There also might be a chance that 新竹縣(Hsinchu County) and 新竹市(Hsinchu City) might merge and become a Special Municipalities but most likely the KMT will do that as well since the popular term-limited DPP incumbent 新竹市(Hsinchu City) has already indicated that he will not run.

[jaichind]

The most-watched race will be for the battle for the open seat for mayor of 臺北市(Taipei City).   The reason is many ROC Prez has served as mayor of 臺北市(Taipei City) in the past.  That includes Lee, Chen, and Ma.

Current TPP mayor 柯文哲 (Ko) will be looking to run in the 2024 Prez election and is term-limited anywhere.  Ko was elected in 2014 as a pro-DPP candidate but broke with DPP in 2018 and narrowly won over the KMT despite the DPP running to split his pan-Green vote.  Ko has since drifted toward the Blue part of the political spectrum and his TPP party is really 2/3 Blue 1/3 Green.

The clear frontrunner is KMT 蔣萬安(Wayne Chiang) who is the great-grandson of ROC Prez Chiang Kai-Shek.  Full disclosure:  One of my cousins actually went to elementary school with Chiang.  At that time she said that he was a real brat.  Ko will be backing KMT splinter PFP 黃珊珊(Vivian Huang) who is serving as lieutenant mayor under Ko who is his clear political successor in 臺北市(Taipei City).  Being that she is still in the PFP and has not joined TPP has led to conflict within TPP over Ko having her run as the Ko candidate.    It is not clear who the DPP will run.  For them to have a chance they will have to run Minister of Health and Welfare 陳時中(Chen).  He gained prominence during the early day of  COVID-19 but his star has waned since and it is unlikely he will be able to beat Chiang.  Given that he might not run but if he does not, all other DPP candidates will be blown out by Chiang so he might have to run just to save the DPP face.

[jaichind]

Other than the mayors and county magistrates the other key race will be control of the various city and county assemblies.  The pan-Blue forces control all city and county assembly except for 嘉義市(Chiayi City)  when the leadership is lean-Green with outside support from some KMT MLAs and 臺南市(Tainan City) where a DPP rebel faction shares power with Pan-Blue forces.

There is a chance the pan-Greens might flip 高雄市(Kaohsiung City) assembly, where in 2018 the pan-Blue forces won control on the KMT Han wave.  This time around without the Han wave and the DPP incumbent mayor Chen expected to win re-election with ease his coattails might propel the Pan-Greens to recapturing control of the city assembly.  The Pan-Greens are most likely going to recapture control of 臺南市(Tainan City) assembly from the DPP rebel faction.  The Pan-Blues on the flip side could win control of 嘉義市(Chiayi City) assembly if they can manage the KMT civil war between the pro-KMT Hsiao and non-Hsaio KMT factions.

Other than that most likely in other city and county assemblies there might a seat won or lost here or there but it should be status quo.

[jaichind]

This set of local elections will also play a big role in who will lead the DPP in 2024 as Tsai is term-limited from running in 2024.

Tsai clearly favors outgoing 桃園市(Taoyuan City) 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-tsan).  Cheng rose to stardom in his shock in 2014 upset victory for the mayor of 桃園市(Taoyuan City) over KMT incumbent John Wu.  Cheng's main rival is ROC DPP Vice Prez 賴淸德(William Lai) and clearly is the candidate Tsai does NOT want to lead the DPP.  Lai challenged Tsai in 2019 for the DPP nomination and Tsai only managed to beat him by controlling the primary rules.  If the KMT recaptures the 桃園市(Taoyuan City) mayor position that will weaken Cheng's hand vis-a-vis Lai.  In that case, Tsai might have to play her trump card of backing the current ROC DPP PM 蘇貞昌(Su Tseng-chang) as the DPP candidate in 2024.  Su is an old enemy of Tsai.  In 2005-2006 Tsai served as DPM under Su when he was PM and these two did not get along well.  Su challenged Tsai for the DPP nomination in 2012 and narrowly lost to Tsai.  But to block Lai Tsai got Su to become her PM in 2019 to consolidate the DPP base behind her against Lai.

[jaichind]

The next battle between DPP and KMT will be on Jan 9th.  That day will see a by-election for 臺中市(Taichung City) 2nd and a recall election for the pro-DPP MP in 臺北市(Taipei City) 5th.

臺中市(Taichung City) 2nd is a lean Green district but has always been held by the powerful pro-KMT Yen family.   顏寬恆(Yen Kuan-heng) was the KMT MP here until he was unexpectedly upset by the DPP-backed TSP candidate in the 2020 Tsai wave.  Late last year the TSP MP which had made some enemies since becoming MP was recalled paving the way for the by-election.  Yen will run for the KMT to regain his seat and the DPP will run 林靜儀(Lin Ching-yi).  Lin is a physician that was a DPP PR MP in the 2016-2020 period.  Even though 臺中市(Taichung City) 2nd is a lean green district Lin is not from this area and the power of the Yen family cannot be ignored.  The KMT is likely to win.

臺北市(Taipei City) 5th is a lean Blue district.  The seat is held by 林昶佐(Freddy Lim) who won here in 2016 as a DPP-backed NPP candidate and again in 2020 as a pro-DPP independent.  His controversial style seems to have made him some local enemies beyond the KMT base so there are enough signatures gathered to force a recalled election.  I suspect that even though 臺北市(Taipei City) 5th is a lean blue district, not enough KMT voters will come out to hit the 25% of VAP Yes for recall threshold.  Lim should survive.

[jaichind]

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4396462

"Lawmaker accuses Taiwan ambassador to Nicaragua of treason"

A pretty funny story our the recent Nicaragua switch of recognition from ROC to PRC.

It seems right after the Nicaragua election in Nov where Ortega was elected he switched Nicaragua recognition from ROC to PRC reversing the decision in 1990 to recognize ROC over PRC.  The ROC embassy was handed over to PRC since the ROC embassy was the "China embassy in Nicaragua" and all that took place was Nicaragua choose to accept PRC as the government of China versus ROC as the government of China.

It turns out that right before the election the ROC ambassador to Nicaragua  Jaime Wu (吳進木) who is an old ROC diplomatic hand in Latin American resigned.  Wu was very close to the Ortega family, especially Ortega's wife who is also the Nicaragua Vice Prez.   After the diplomatic switch, Wu also indicated he will be changing his citizenship to Nicaragua courtesy of Ortega and will not be returning to ROC.

It seems pretty close that Wu must have significant financial interests in Nicaragua and must have been tipped off by Ortega's wife that after the election Ortega will switch from ROC to PRC.  Wu's move then was to resign before all this is to take place and cut a deal for him to stay in Nicaragua with all his financial interests intact.  It will not surprise me if the PRC is involved in some way.  All in all pretty funny story.

There is an old imperial Chinese political rule that central government-appointed county magistrates and governors a) cannot be from that area and b) have to be rotated after some time.  The idea is to avoid vested interests from being built by the said government official and the local economic elites. Wu is a good example why these rules existed in imperial China.

[Neptunium]

CONGRATUATION! LEGISLATOR LIN!  

[jaichind]

臺中市(Taichung City) 2nd by-election and 臺北市(Taipei City) 5th recall election out.  Another victory for Tsai/DPP. 

臺中市(Taichung City) 2nd by-election (turnout over 58%)
DPP   51.8%
KMT   47.3%

臺北市(Taipei City) 5th recall (turnout 42%)
Recall Yes     55.8%
Recall No      44.2%

Since Recall Yes failed to reach 25% of VAP the recall failed.

The DPP strategy of party polarization succeeded and the KMT strategy of localizing failed.  The DPP bet that party polarization would get turn out to be high enough 臺中市(Taichung City) 2nd by-election to swamp the Yen personal vote but keep turnout in 臺北市(Taipei City) 5th recall low enough to prevent Recall Yes to succeed.  The KMT mostly have given up on 臺北市(Taipei City) 5th recall and was looking to lower turnout in 臺中市(Taichung City) 2nd by-election to have KMT's Yen personal vote carry him which did not work.  Had KMT gone all out to mobilize its base most likely 臺中市(Taichung City) 2nd by-election would still have been lost but the 臺北市(Taipei City) 5th recall might have passed.

In 臺中市(Taichung City) 2nd by-election there is a bellwether precinct which is always very very close to PVI even almost every election last few cycles where it was DPP 50.3% KMT 48.7%.  This implies that the national environment is most likely around Green +1 which is around what the referendum implied and is quite impressive for the DPP regime that has been in power for over 5 years.  If so I think this still implies a KMT edge in the 2022 local election where the KMT should hold most if not all of their incumbents and pick up a couple of seats given the fact that KMT will for sure mobilize for the 2022 elections and some anti-incumbency will build up for DPP.  But for the national environment to be around Green +1 means that the 2024 Prez race now seems quite winnable for the DPP who might be slight favorites to win at this stage.  Back in 2006 and 2014, it was clear that the DPP and KMT regimes were going to be defeated decisively in the next Prez election.  The current DPP regime is in far stronger shape.

[MoreThanPolitics]

Map time! It must be embarrassing for the KMT to lose six elections in three weeks' time, lol   

[jaichind]

Latest TVBS poll on  臺北市(Taipei City) mayor race

Assuming KMT DPP TPP each run their strongest candidate (KMT MP and Chiang scion 蔣萬安(Wayne Chiang), DPP Minister of Health and Welfare 陳時中 (Chen Shih-Chung) and TPP backed PFP background deputy mayor 黃珊珊 (Huang Shan-Shan))



Huang is rising with both Chiang and Chen falling but Chen falling more relative to March last year.  Chiang is still in control of this race and if he officially runs as expected after Chinese New Year he should most likely pull it off.

[jaichind]

臺南市(Tainan City) KMT city MLA 謝龍介(Hsieh Long-Jie) announced that he will run for the KMT nomination for the 臺南市(Tainan City) mayor.  He is pretty much the strongest candidate the KMT could field.  He is famous for being a Hoklo dialect expert being able to use situational appropriate Hoklo proverbs that many people last couple of generations have lost contact with.

He ran for MP in 臺南市(Tainan City)  for 2012 2016 and 2019 by-election and lost all 3 but came within 3% of winning in the 2019 by-election. 

Clearly, he will lose to DPP incumbent mayor Huang but his being in the race will help KMT GOTV in 臺南市(Tainan City) overall for City council elections.

[jaichind]

TVBS poll for 臺南市(Tainan City) mayor has KMT Hsieh behind DPP incumbent Huang 51-31.  This is actually a very good result for Hsieh at this stage of the election cycle against an incumbent in a Deep Green city.  KMT incumbent mayor Lu of tossup 臺中市(Taichung City)  leads her perspective DPP opponents by something like 55 to 20.  Both of these races will clearly tighten up as we get closer to the election.  But the poll for 臺南市(Tainan City) shows KMT Hsieh's name recognition and relative candidate strength.  I suspect he is hoping for a mega anti-DPP tide to sweep him to victory and in the likely case, it does not take place to set himself up to run again in 2026 when this becomes an open seat.

[jaichind]

Due to pressure from a NPP MP, more woke politics comes to ROC with a sarcastic response but most likely no real electoral impact.  It is 外公外婆正名 (Renaming of Grandmas and Grandpas). In Chinese, the word for grandma and grandpa are different if the grandparents are from the father's side and the mothers' side.  On the father's side, it is 祖父/祖母 and on the mother's side, it is 外公/外婆.  The same is true for uncles and cousins.

After pressure from a very woke NPP MP, the Ministry of Education will refer to all grandparents as 祖父/祖母 and stop using 外公/外婆.  Vass majority of the population including most DPP supporters found this annoying and a sign the government has nothing better to do.  The good news for the DPP is that this will blow over soon and not have the same salience as gay marriage back in 2018 when they got hammered on that issue.

[xelas81]

Due to pressure from a NPP MP, more woke politics comes to ROC with a sarcastic response but most likely no real electoral impact.  It is 外公外婆正名 (Renaming of Grandmas and Grandpas). In Chinese, the word for grandma and grandpa are different if the grandparents are from the father's side and the mothers' side.  On the father's side, it is 祖父/祖母 and on the mother's side, it is 外公/外婆.  The same is true for uncles and cousins.

After pressure from a very woke NPP MP, the Ministry of Education will refer to all grandparents as 祖父/祖母 and stop using 外公/外婆.  Vass majority of the population including most DPP supporters found this annoying and a sign the government has nothing better to do.  The good news for the DPP is that this will blow over soon and not have the same salience as gay marriage back in 2018 when they got hammered on that issue.

Seems weird to pick the word for paternal grandparent as the new default.

[jaichind]

Due to pressure from a NPP MP, more woke politics comes to ROC with a sarcastic response but most likely no real electoral impact.  It is 外公外婆正名 (Renaming of Grandmas and Grandpas). In Chinese, the word for grandma and grandpa are different if the grandparents are from the father's side and the mothers' side.  On the father's side, it is 祖父/祖母 and on the mother's side, it is 外公/外婆.  The same is true for uncles and cousins.

After pressure from a very woke NPP MP, the Ministry of Education will refer to all grandparents as 祖父/祖母 and stop using 外公/外婆.  Vass majority of the population including most DPP supporters found this annoying and a sign the government has nothing better to do.  The good news for the DPP is that this will blow over soon and not have the same salience as gay marriage back in 2018 when they got hammered on that issue.

Seems weird to pick the word for paternal grandparent as the new default.

Because the word for paternal grandparents "祖父/祖母" are "Ancestor father/Ancestor mother" while the word maternal grandparents "外公/外婆" are "external elder man/external elder women".  The keyword is "external" where the word for maternal grandparents implies the relationship is "weak".  That was the original complaint and that is the reason why the words that are kept are paternal grandparents "祖父/祖母".

Note Chinese is a pictographic language so almost all words are constructed based on ideas.  There is far more justification to assert that the Chinese language is, using woke language, systemic "racist" "sexist" "homophobic" "Misogynistic" etc etc.  In fact if you want to "fix" this the entire Chinese written language would have to be abolished and reconstructed from scratch.  The radical Chinese Left of the 20th century had advocated for such a move and there were CCP ideas from the 1960s to abolish the Chinese written language to remake the Chinese people. 

Thankfully these days the CCP is the vanguard of protecting and promoting classical Chinese civilization and even on ROC when the urban progressive tried to move in this direction it is roundly mocked.  The DPP base is a coalition of Northern urban progressives and Southern Bubbas and Billybobs.  The gay marriage issue blew up the DPP in the 2018 elections and the  Southern Bubbas and Billybobs only came back in 2020 because of the salience of the PRC issue.  If the PRC issue loses salience and the ROC urban woke crowd tries other stuff like this it will be another hammering for the DPP.

[jaichind]

The KMT county magistrate of Green leaning 宜蘭縣(Yilan County)  林姿妙(Lin Zi-Miao) who is running for re-election later this year is now under investigation for corruption.    So far the KMT is backing her claiming that the investigation is politically motivated.  So far 林姿妙(Lin Zi-Miao) seems to be fairly popular and has a cross-partisan appeal and was expected to won re-election.  Depending on how the corruption investigation goes this will be in jeopardy.

宜蘭縣(Yilan County) has been cursed for the KMT for a while.  The last time the KMT won re-election for county magistrate here was in 1977.  There is a similar curse for the DPP for 臺中市(Taichung City) and 彰化縣(Changhua County) where the DPP (and proto-DPP) has never won re-election in these two places.  The reason for this curse has to do with local factions.  The local factions in 臺中市(Taichung City) and 彰化縣(Changhua County) are very pro-KMT while they might fail to turn out for KMT when they are unhappy with the local KMT administration when the KMT are out of power they would unite to drive out the DPP.   In 宜蘭縣(Yilan County) the opposite is true.  Since proto-DPP won control of 宜蘭縣(Yilan County) the local factions have shifted their support to DPP giving them an edge in local elections.  林姿妙(Lin Zi-Miao) was going to break this curse for the KMT given her cross-partisan appeal but now that seems to be at risk.

[jaichind]

With COVID-19 cases surging in ROC the same mess that took place in the USA back in Nov 2021-Jan 2022 in the USA with respect to lack of testing kits is being replayed in ROC.  DPP/Tsai clearly taking a hit from this.  The good news for them is this wave will clearly come, peak out in June and subside with some but not massive death and ROC will move on like everywhere else.  This is taking place early enough in 2022 that the damage to DPP for the end of year elections will most likely be limited

[jaichind]

One impact of the COVID-19 surge is the frontrunner for DPP nomination in 臺北市(Taipei City) which was DPP Minister of Health and Welfare 陳時中(Chen Shih-chung) seems to be at risk of falling behind other DPP rivals like former 臺中市(Taichung City) mayor and current Minister of Transportation and Communications 林佳龍 (Lin Chia-lung).  Lin ran for mayor of 臺中市(Taichung City) back in 2005 and lost but won in 2014 but lost re-election in 2018.  The current KMT mayor of 臺中市(Taichung City) 盧秀燕(Lu Shiow-yen) looks like a shoo-in for re-election ergo Lin mostly gave up plans to run for his old seat but instead wants to run in 臺北市(Taipei City) where a 3-way race (KMT vs DPP vs TPP (but with a pan-Blue (PFP) background)) could give him a realistic chance at winning if the pan-Blue vote is split between KMT and TPP.

Now even if Chen does win the DPP nomination this COVID-19 surge does mean his chances of winning in 臺北市(Taipei City) which was never that great just got lower.

[jaichind]

As far as the various city assembly elections the DPP are now in the middle of their "primary."  The DPP "primary" mostly involves potential candidates registering themselves with the DPP and then the DPP uses a series of polls to estimate support for each candidate and then pick the top N nominees for each district as most city/county assembly elections are multi-member SNTV seats.  The KMT will do the same but later in the year.

As with these poll based "primaries" there are plenty of ways of manipulating these results and charges of cheating are already appearing.  Again, the KMT will go through the same thing on their side when they get to do their "primary."

[jaichind]

Example of DPP "primary" results.  This is for the 9- member 新北市(New Taipei City) 5th district.  The DPP will nominate 5 candidates.  6 DPP party members registered including 3 out of the 4 DPP incumbents from the 2018 election so the last-place finisher in the average of 3 polls is out and not nominated.

The DPP ran 5 candidates in 2018 and won 4.  To be fair in 2018 the DPP had to contend with a DPP rebel running so taking that into account the DPP is really running the same number of candidates as in 2018.

One of the DPP "primary" winner in this district is 山田摩衣 (Yamada Mou-Yi) who is half Japanese (on her father's side) and a somewhat famous sitcom/television series star who has been active in DPP politics for a while but taking the plunge to run this time around.

[jaichind]

Due to pressure from a NPP MP, more woke politics comes to ROC with a sarcastic response but most likely no real electoral impact.  It is 外公外婆正名 (Renaming of Grandmas and Grandpas). In Chinese, the word for grandma and grandpa are different if the grandparents are from the father's side and the mothers' side.  On the father's side, it is 祖父/祖母 and on the mother's side, it is 外公/外婆.  The same is true for uncles and cousins.

After pressure from a very woke NPP MP, the Ministry of Education will refer to all grandparents as 祖父/祖母 and stop using 外公/外婆.  Vass majority of the population including most DPP supporters found this annoying and a sign the government has nothing better to do.  The good news for the DPP is that this will blow over soon and not have the same salience as gay marriage back in 2018 when they got hammered on that issue.

The Chinese make a very clear distinction between grandparents, aunts, uncles, cousins, brothers, and sisters as far as which side they are from (father's side or mother's side) and their relative age to themselves and the parent in question.


North Indians have a very similar system that makes these exact relationships clear and precise

[jaichind]

In a surprise move, the KMT will bypass a "primary" and nominate former PM and 2020 KMT VP candidate 張善政(Simon Chang) as its candidate for mayor of 桃園市(Taoyuan City).  In this move, the KMT seems to be prioritizing national name recognition over local roots.  I suspect the KMT did this to avoid a bruising "primary" between several KMT MPs by primitively putting in a compromise candidate.   張善政(Simon Chang)  is not a member of the KMT and is a pro-Blue independent but will be joining the KMT.

In 臺北市(Taipei City) the word is the KMT is days away from formally announcing Chiang Kai-Shek's great-grandson and KMT MP 蔣萬安(Wayne Chiang) as its candidate.  

On the DPP side, things are frozen as the COVID-19 surge continues since it is not clear if the Minister of Health and Welfare 陳時中(Chen Shih-chung) will run at all and if he will run in 臺北市(Taipei City) or 桃園市(Taoyuan City).  Former DPP 臺中市(Taichung City) mayor 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung) clearly wants to run in 臺北市(Taipei City) and there are several DPP MPs that want to run in 桃園市(Taoyuan City) but until the COVDI-19 surge gets under control and DPP high command assess the political damage 陳時中(Chen Shih-chung)  and how viable he is as a trump card candidate DPP's decisin making process in these two cities will be frozen.

[jaichind]

https://udn.com/news/story/7325/6302756

This is from a week ago but this story illustrates aspects of the ROC "primary" system.  This involves the DPP "primary" for the 臺北市(Taipei City) 13th City Council district.  This district has 6 members.  In 2018 the DPP nominated 4 candidates but won only 2.  This time around the DPP wants to only nominate 3 candidates so the "primary" is about which of the 5 DPP "primary" candidates poll in the top 3.   The result is



The 4th place finisher 蔡美華 (Tsai Mai-Hua) polled at 17.27% barely losing out to the third-place finisher 17.39%.   She is aligned with the former DPP mayor of 臺中市(Taichung City) 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung) and was edged out by candidates aligned with the New Tide faction and the Su (current DPP PM) faction.  She is asking for a "recount" of the polls done given how close the result was.

Her political ad clearly asks DPP supporters to say they support her when polling firms call them asking who in DPP they support for City Council.  This type of ad is pretty standard under the ROC "primary" system.

[jaichind]

Ettoday index based on polling on the political strength of key post-Tsai era politicians.


1) 侯友宜(Hou You-yi).  KMT mayor of 新北市(New Taipei City).  He looks like to be a shoo-in to win re-election by a landslide.  Will be a contender for KMT nomination in 2024 but more likely be a VP candidate.

2) 賴清德(Lai Ching-te). DPP VP and former PM.  Rival to DPP Prez Tsai and unsuccessfully challenged Tsai in the 2020 Prez election DPP primary.  Is a top contender for DPP nomination in 2024 although Tsai will do everything to stop him.  Tsai clearly favors 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-tsan) who is currently DPP mayor of 桃園市(Taoyuan City)

3) 柯文哲(Ko Wen-je).  TPP mayor of 臺北市 (Taipei City).  Comes from a deep green background and was an ally of DPP back in 2014 but soon broke with DPP and has shifted to a more pan-Blue position.  Very likely will run as a TPP candidate for the 2024 Prez election.

4) 郭台銘(Terry Gou). Pro-KMT CEO of Foxconn.  Joined KMT in 2019 to try to win the 2020 KMT Prez election primary but lost to 高雄市(Kaoshiung City) KMT mayor 韓國瑜(Han Kuo-yu) in what Gou called a rigged primary leading to Gou bolting from the KMT and threatening a third party run with the support of Ko.  In the end, he called that effort off.  He continues to have pro-Ko and pro-KMT leanings.  In 2024 he could either run in the KMT primary or back Ko's candidacy, perhaps even as his VP candidate.

5) 陳其邁(Chen Chi-mai). DPP mayor of 高雄市(Kaoshiung City).  He lost the 2018 mayor race to 韓國瑜(Han Kuo-yu) but after Han was defeated in his challenge to Prez Tsai in the 2020 race Han was recalled leading to Chen winning in a by-election.  He looks set to be re-elected by a landslide and is a possible VP candidate for the DPP in 2024.

6) 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-tsan). DPP mayor of 桃園市(Taoyuan City).  Won a shock upset victory in 2014 as mayor and is the pro-Tsai candidate in the 2024 DPP Prez primary as the main rival to DPP VP 賴清德(Lai Ching-te).

7) 蔣萬安(Chiang Wan-an).  KMT candidate for mayor for 臺北市 (Taipei City) and great-grandson of Chiang Kai-Shek.  Seems to have made the list given that he is favored to become the next mayor of 臺北市 (Taipei City) as well as his last name.

8 ) 盧秀燕(Lu Shiow-yen). KMT mayor of 臺中市(Taichung City).  Looks like she is set to be re-elected by a large margin in this swing city.  Could be a dark horse contender for the KMT VP spot in 2024.

9) 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung). DPP Minister of Transportation and Communications and former mayor of 臺中市(Taichung City) who lost to 盧秀燕(Lu Shiow-yen) in 2018.  Is looking to be the DPP candidate for mayor of 臺北市 (Taipei City) but for now Tsai seems to favor DPP Minister of the Ministry of Health and Welfare 陳時中(Chen Shih-chung).  If Chen falters then Lin might get the DPP nod to run in 臺北市 (Taipei City).

10)  陳時中(Chen Shih-chung). DPP Minister of the Ministry of Health and Welfare.  Gained a lot of political credibility due to ROC's successful handling of COVID-19.  As a result he was viewed by Tsai as the best DPP candidate to run for mayor of 臺北市 (Taipei City) to take on 蔣萬安(Chiang Wan-an).  There is also talk of 陳時中(Chen Shih-chung) running in 桃園市(Taoyuan City) instead and 林佳龍(Lin Chia-lung) running in 臺北市 (Taipei City).  Given the recent COVID-19 surge in ROC Chen's stock has dropped a large amount and if Tsai insists on him running in either 臺北市 (Taipei City) or 桃園市(Taoyuan City) he could bring down the entire DPP campaign in Northern Taiwan Province.  Tsai and Chen have to hope the COVID-19 situation turns around later this summer.



Not on the list are

1) 韓國瑜(Han Kuo-yu) who was elected mayor of 高雄市(Kaoshiung City) but lost to DPP Tsai in the 2020 Prez race.  Most likely he will not make a political comeback although he has still a large base of supporters in the KMT.

2) 朱立倫(Eric Chu).  Current KMT chairman and in theory frontrunner for the KMT Prez nomination in 2024.  He totally mishandled the 2016 KMT campaign and was one of the reasons he lost to Han in the 2020 KMT primary and he continues to have his distractors.  If the KMT wins in a landslide in the 2022 local elections Chu will most likely be the KMT candidate in 2024.  If KMT does poorly or even a mediocre result then the knives will be out for the Chu and the KMT 2024 nomination becomes an open race.  The fact that Chu is not in the 10 top is telling where he stands with the KMT base.