2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022

[jaichind]

Theranti-Tsai force within the DPP with their de facto leader Lai will activate themselves to take over the party given the likely result of this election.

[jaichind]

KMT takes a tiny lead in Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4).  So now everyone I predicted to win is ahead in the count so far.

[jaichind]

In Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) it is

KMT Chiang              42
DPP Chen                 31
pro-TPP Huang          27

Slowly converging toward my predicted vote share.

[jaichind]

I think the result is clear everywhere except for Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) where it is neck-to-neck and the winner will not be clear until the end.

[jaichind]

DPP retakes the lead in Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) of 6 points.  Looks like DPP now has the edge here and I might miss my sweep of guessing all races correctly.   It seems the KMT rebel took a good part of the KMT base leading to DPP victory.

[jaichind]

DPP lead in Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +6) continues to be below 2%.  The DPP leader in Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) continues to be below 3%.  DPP will win both but they will win them ugly.  The Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)  result has me thinking that DPP VP Lai is behind this and the Lai New Tide faction vote was not mobilized to ensure a bad election night for DPP Prez Tsai so Lai can then take over and run in 2024.

[jaichind]

In Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7) the KMT has a 15-point lead !!!!! ? What in the world is going on?  I have to assume this will reverse itself and the real margin of victory will be below 10%.

[jaichind]

In Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +6) so far it is DPP 58 KMT 42.  Slight overperformance by KMT

[jaichind]

In Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) it is

KMT Chiang              42
DPP Chen                 32
pro-TPP Huang          26

More convergence to my vote share prediction

[jaichind]

KMT lead in Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) is now 13 points and has been around that level for a while.  Seems the KMT is headed toward a double-digit win there.

[jaichind]

In Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +5) it is KMT 56 DPP 44.  Rare DPP overperformance

[jaichind]

Japan's ROC politics expert 小笠原欣幸 (Ogasawara Yoshiyuki) predicts KMT wins 15 mayor/county magistrate seats, DPP 5, TPP 1, and Independent 1 (KMT rebel).

His prediction matches mine exactly with the only exception of Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) where I have the KMT incumbent barely hanging on against the former DPP incumbent that he defeated in 2018 and a KMT rebel but he has it as a DPP flip. 

I think if there is one projection of mine that I am not sure about it would be Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) given the strength of the former DPP incumbent and the unknown dynamic of the KMT rebel.  Still, I think KMT incumbent is more likely to win given the low-keyed campaign so far which should favor incumbents across the board.

In fact, my projection for this year has no incumbents losing but a lot of flips in open seats.

With Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) more likely to go DPP this guy got it on the nail.

[jaichind]

Ultra pro-Green/DPP 三立(SETN) news coverage is having a meltdown on the same level as the 2018 election night and TYT 2016.  Fun to watch. 

[jaichind]

In 金門縣(Kinmen County) it is 50/50 between KMT and KMT rebel (ex-NP).  This one coming down to the wire.

[jaichind]

Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3)

TPP     47
DPP     36
KMT    18

Pretty steady for a while now.  This is pretty much going to be the result.  The DPP attacks on the TPP candidate seem to help push the KMT base to TPP.

[jaichind]

連江縣(Lianjiang County) where KMT nominated two candidates to fight it out it is

KMT #1    51
KMT #2    43
DPP           6

[jaichind]

In 金門縣(Kinmen County) it is 50/50 between KMT and KMT rebel (ex-NP).  This one coming down to the wire.

KMT rebel (backed by TPP) now takes a slight lead. The KMT rebel was the KMT county magistrate from 2014-2018.   I am sure the tiny DPP vote here voted KMT rebel.  If the KMT rebel wins it is a tiny consolation for DPP the help flip one on KMT even if it is to another de facto KMT candidate.

[jaichind]

Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)

KMT rebel     45
DPP              33
NPP              12
KMT               9

Actually best Pan-Green performance here ever.  The KMT split has done damage to the Pan-Blue brand with NPP looking like it is picking up the TPP (fromer KMT) youth vote.

[jaichind]

Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4)

DPP           36 (ex-incumbent)
KMT          33 (incumbent)
KMT rebel  31

I totally underestimated the KMT rebel

[jaichind]

Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4)

KMT           52
DPP           40
TPP              5
DPP rebel     3

Looks like last minute consolidation of the TPP and DPP rebel vote in favor of the two front runners and mostly for KMT

[jaichind]

Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +1)

KMT         56  (incumbent)
DPP          37
Ind.            7

The KMT incumbent was expected to win by 20 points which she mostly did.  The main surprise is the independent.  The independent is a political novice single mother that spent some time with her 3 children on the Mainland to study Go.  Her main plank seems to be school choice/home schooling.

[jaichind]

Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7)

KMT          57
DPP           42
NPP            0.5
KMT rebel   0.5

Again, looks like last-minute consolidation behind the two front-runners, most in favor of the KMT candidate

[jaichind]

Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +6)

DPP          50
KMT          48.5
NPP            1.5

Wow.  This has to be the best vote share for the pan-Blues in any election here in a long time (like in 2008)

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Chiang Kai-shek would be proud.  This is a blue wave that I fully support.

[jaichind]

Chiang Kai-shek would be proud.  This is a blue wave that I fully support.

Note that during this entire campaign the DPP never really attacked Chiang the Elder and Chiang the Younger as part of their campaign against KMT Chiang.  The reason comes down to the two Prez Chiangs, however, they treated the proto-DPP, was anti-CCP.  For the DPP that is a legacy their want to try to absorb into their political appeal.