2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022

[jaichind]

鄭寶清 (Cheng Bao-Ching)'s main danger to the DPP in 桃園市(Taoyuan City) is that he is Hakka and could eat into the DPP Hakka vote in Southern 桃園市(Taoyuan City).  In 桃園市(Taoyuan City) Hoklos dominate the North while Hakkas dominate the South.  Hakka used to vote in large numbers for the KMT and still lean toward KMT but DPP Prez Tsai being a Hakka herself has helped the Hakka vote trend DPP since 2012.  This is despite the joke that Tsai speaks better English than Mondrian, speaks better Mandarin than Hoklo, and speaks better Hoklo than Hakka which is almost nil.

Since the 1970s the trend in Taoyuan has been that the county magistrate/mayor alternate between Hakkas and non-Hakkas.  In theory in 2022, it is the Hakka's turn to become county magistrate/mayor and that was why 鄭寶清 (Cheng Bao-Ching) was pretty sure he was going to get nominated.  Then DPP Prez Tsai went with a Hoklo 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) (who to be fair ran pretty well in 新竹市(Hsinchu City)  in 2014 and 2018 where there is a sizable Hakka population) and then when 林智堅(Lin Chih-Chien) was dropped due to the plagiarism scandal installed Hoklo 鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng).

鄭寶清 (Cheng Bao-Ching) has been complaining about "outsider" candidates from the KMT and DPP but what he really means is they are not Hakka.  It seems 鄭寶清 (Cheng Bao-Ching) will focus on the Hakka vote in the South and it is very likely the Hakka votes he nets will be pan-Green Hakkas which could be fatal for 鄭寶清 (Cheng Bao-Ching).

On the flip side 鄭寶清 (Cheng Bao-Ching)  running might help the DPP in the City assembly elections in the Hakka South by pushing up pro-DPP Hakka turnout.  In theory, it seems 鄭寶清 (Cheng Bao-Ching) is de facto endorsing TPP candidates for City assembly but TPP MLA candidates do not have any roots in 桃園市(Taoyuan City), especially in the South, and in the end 鄭寶清 (Cheng Bao-Ching) running will most likely help Hakka DPP MLA City assembly candidates in the South.

[jaichind]

In a campaign speech 桃園市(Taoyuan City) DPP candidate 鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng) same the quiet part loud and count have started the battle for the 2024 DPP Prez primary.  With the current DPP mayor 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan) next to him at his rally  鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng) said "Let's elect me his Nov and send 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan) to the PM and the Prez office!!"

What 鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng) is trying to do is to appeal to the favorite son effect with the understanding that if he wins that means Prez Tsai will have the political capital to put 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan) in as PM and then be the frontrunner for the 2024 DPP nomination to lock out DPP VP Lai.  鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng) wants to appeal to the regional pride of 桃園市(Taoyuan City) that voting for him gives them a chance to have a PM and then Prez from 桃園市(Taoyuan City).

The main problem is this puts out into the open what is implicitly understood, that 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan) is DPP Prez Tsai's trump card to stop Lai.  By saying this out loud he now gives the pro-New Tide faction (DPP VP Lai is allied with the New Tide faction) DPP voters to have second thoughts on voting for 鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng)  and more importantly could trigger the New Tide faction within the DPP to start taking action to fight for Lai's position within the party which basically starts the DPP Civil war for 2024 early.   DPP has a track record of recovering from these civil wars but to have it start during the 2022 midterms is unusual and could cause damage.  I think 鄭運鵬(Cheng Yun-peng) knows this but I guess he figures his position is difficult enough that he is willing to take that gamble.

[jaichind]

TVBS poll for 臺北市(Taipei City) (change from June)

KMT    36 (-3)
DPP    23 (+5)
PFP     26 (+2) running at TPP-backed independent



Both DPPs Chen and  TPP-backed independent Hunag officially entered the race in June leading both to gain ground.  Looking at cross-tabs it seems Chen is consolidating the pan-Green vote while KMT's Chiang is losing ground in the pan-Blue youth vote to Huang.  This poll has to worry DPP as it still has DPP's Chen behind TPP-backed independent Huang.

Favorabilities numbers  for the 3 candidates seem to indicate that the DPP will have a low floor

Favorable/Unfavorable

KMT's Chiang          49/24
DPP's Chen              29/52
TPP backed Huang   50/19

What KMT Chaing needs is for Hunag to collapse and turn the race into a Chiang vs Chen race.  What DPP's Chen needs is a right 3-way tie with the large anti-Chen vote split evenly between KMT's Chiang and TPP-backed Huang.    What TPP-backed Huang needs is for DPP's Chen to collapse and the DPP tactical vote shifts her way to defeat KMT Chiang.

[jaichind]

Ettoday poll on  桃園市(Taoyuan City)

3 way battle
KMT        42.3
DPP        32.3
TPP          5.9


If DPP rebel 鄭寶清 (Cheng Bao-Ching) runs making it a 4-way battle
KMT        36.8
DPP         28.5
TPP         10.1
DPP rebel  7.9


It is interesting that with DPP rebels in the race the KMT-DPP gap narrows.  It seems part of the KMT vote is an anti-DPP pro-TPP vote that shifted to TPP if the DPP rebel gets into the race making a DPP victory unlikely which then drives anti-DPP pro-TPP tactical voters to shift back to TPP.  Plus the DPP rebel is running against the "High command culture" of DPP Prez Tsai and DPP high command which seems to have also attracted some anti-DPP pro-KMT voters.  The good news for the KMT is that if this race tightens then they can expect a lot of anti-DPP tactical voters to shift back from TPP to KMT.

[jaichind]

Deep Blue 苗栗縣(Miaoli County) official went into a KMT civil war today.

The KMT civil war has to do with the rivalry between the KMT county magistrate of 2005-2014 劉政鴻(Liu Cheng-hung) and the KMT county magistrate of 2014-2022 徐耀昌(Hsu Yao-chang).  The official KMT candidate is aligned with 劉政鴻(Liu Cheng-hung)  while the KMT speaker of the county assembly is aligned with 徐耀昌(Hsu Yao-chang) will run as a KMT rebel.

苗栗縣(Miaoli County) is 60% Hakka and 40% Hoklo and all county magistrates are Hakkas (and all from the Pan-Blue camp).  劉政鴻(Liu Cheng-hung) as a Hoklo built a faction within the KMT around a coalition of Hoklos and Hakkas while the 徐耀昌(Hsu Yao-chang) KMT faction is almost all Hakkas.

When the KMT nominated 徐耀昌(Hsu Yao-chang) in 2014 劉政鴻(Liu Cheng-hung) threatened to run his proxy candidate but was convinced by the KMT to hold his fire.  In 2018 劉政鴻(Liu Cheng-hung) threatened to run himself against 徐耀昌(Hsu Yao-chang) but was convinced by the KMT that in 2022 the KMT would nominate someone from his faction.  The KMT delivered on that promise but merely angered 徐耀昌(Hsu Yao-chang) and his supporters with 徐耀昌(Hsu Yao-chang) now backing the KMT speaker of the county assembly to run as a KMT rebel.

The good news for the KMT is that the pan-Green camp is also split with a surprisingly strong run by an NPP candidate.  I suspect it will be a 3-way race between the 2 KMT candidates and the DPP with the NPP candidate far behind but with a significant vote share.  Most likely one of the KMT candidates will win as the Pan-Blue vote consolidate around one of the two KMT candidates.

In the election for county assembly, the pan-Blue camp is split down the middle.  In 2018 the KMT won 14 out of 38 seats with pro-KMT candidates winning another 17 with most of them joining the KMT after the election (one of them being the Speaker who is now running for county magistrate as a KMT rebel),    Around half of the pan-Blue 31 MLAs will be running as pro-徐耀昌(Hsu Yao-chang) KMT faction independents. 

I suspect neither KMT faction will win a majority of the seats in the county assembly and the pan-Green MLAs will most likely play the role of kingmaker post-election on picking which KMT faction wins the speaker post.

[jaichind]

I did an initial scan of the City and County assembly candidates now that candidate registration has been open for a few days.  There might be a few surprise registration in the coming days but the vast majority that will run have either declared or registrated.  

Out of the 912 MLA winners in 2018 (KMT 394, DPP 238,  Deep Blue 6, TSU 5, NPP 16, Light blue 173, PFP+allies 14, MKT 3, light green 53, pro-DPP KMT splinter NPA 6, pro-Ko 4)

1) 729 will run for re-election with 70 of them making some sort of party shift (most of them are nominal party shifts, like pro-KMT independent running as KMT this time and vice versa, some NPP winners running as independents, although there are a few pro-KMT pro-PFP and KMT MLAs running as TPP).

2) 49 has some natural successor running (son, daughter, assistant, wife, sister, niece, son-in-law, daughter-in-law).  This concept of passing on your support organization in a multimember district to a successor is very similar to Japan's Lower House elections before 1996 when Japan had multimember districts.  Again in a few cases, successors are running for a different party much most are nominal changes (KMT father has son running as pro-KMT independent or vice versa etc).  In a couple of cases, pro-KMT NPB MLA has their successor going over to DPP.

3) 8 became MPs elected in 2020

4) 29 will not run due to being convicted of corruption/vote buying and no successor running in their place.  Note some of the 49 that have some successor run also have been convicted of corruption/vote buying as well which is why they have a successor running.

5) 6 pass away

6) 44 will run for another office 7 of which are mayors or county executives.  The rest are for various township or village heads.  In rural counties, there is a lot more money to be made by being the head of a township or village than a MLA.  The number of rural townships and village arrests for corruption has been and continues to be quite high.  In rural counties being a MLA is really a stepping stone to being a township or village head where the real money is.

Among the 2018 candidates that did not win but had a credible performance (some later became MLA as part of auto-promoition as existing MLA were removed due to conviction of corruption, elected MP, or passed away)

1) 190 will run mostly in the same bloc (like a pro-KMT candidate in 2018 runs as KMT or vice versa)

2) 2 became MPs elected in 2020

3) 15 were arrested for corruption so they could not run again

4) 24 will have a natural successor run in their place mostly in the same bloc

5) 19 will run (or their natural successor run in their place) for a town or village head in rural areas whose benefits I already outlined.


I would think after the 2018 hammering the DPP would be conservative in its nomination strategy.  But buoyed by the 2020 landslide victory the DPP continues to be aggressive in nominating candidates just like in 2018.  The reverse is true for KMT who are fairly conservative despite their 2018 victory most likely for the same reason why the DPP is aggressive

TPP is clearly now a pan-Blue party.  Almost all TPP candidates were tied to pro-KO in 2018 (make sense) or have some other Pan-Blue background.  In the 2020 elections, TPP MP candidates were something like 2 to 1 in terms of Pan-Blue/Pan-Green backgrounds.  Now it is more like 8 to 1 in terms of Pan-Blue/Pan-Green backgrounds.

[jaichind]

As far as City and country assembly councils possible flips

1) DPP will for sure flip back Tainan City (臺南市) city assembly.  There was a large pan-Green majority in 2018 but a DPP rebel faction allied with KMT and allies to capture the speakership.  The DPP rebel faction (the anti-New Tide forces) has since reconciled with the New Tide Faction-dominated DPP caucus. This does not really count as a flip but the Speakership for sure will flip to DPP.

2) 50/50 chance for Pan-Green flip Kaoshiung City (高雄市) city assembly.  The Pan-Blues flipped this assembly in 2018 as part of the Han wave.  This time around with the DPP mayor incumbent winning re-election by a landslide the chances are solid that the Pan-Greens can flip it back.

3) Some chance of Pan-Green flip of Pingdong County(屏東縣) county assembly.  The Pan-Blues flipped this assembly from NOC due to the county magistrate seat being an open race.  The time with the DPP county magistrate incumbent running for re-election his coattails could help Pan-Greens flip this assembly or perhaps push it to NOC.

4) Some chance of Pan-Greens flip of Yilan County(宜蘭縣) county assembly.  The Pan-Blue flipped this assembly as part of the KMT win of the county magistrate in this pro-Green county.  In theory with the KMT incumbent running for re-election, the Pan-Blue should expand on their majority.  But with the KMT incumbent in trouble with corruption allegations even if she wins it is likely there will not be coattails for the KMT.

5) Across the North and Central Taiwan Province the Pan-Blue are most likely going to add to their majority.  At the top of the ticket, the situation is more favorable for the Pan-Blues in Hsinchu County (新竹縣), Keelung City (基隆市), Taoyuan City (桃園市), Taichung City(臺中市), Changhua County(彰化縣), New Taipei City (新北市), and Yunlin County(雲林縣).  

6) KMT could flip Jiayi City(嘉義市)  city assembly if the KMT and pro-KMT Hsiao faction can align post-election.  In 2018 the Hsiao faction ran their own candidate for mayor and the bad blood between the KMT and Hsiao faction led to a pro-DPP speaker post-election.  This time it seems the Pan-Blue forces are united.

7) In Maioli County (苗栗縣) as mentioned before there is a KMT civil war for the race for county magistrate and the KMT now has broken into two factions running in the county assembly.  Neither faction will win a majority and the small number pan-Green MLAs could become kingmakers in the assembly if the two KMT factions could not re-unite post-election.

8 ) The situation in Taipei City (臺北市) is not clear.  The pan-Blues will most likely retain their majority but with the DPP at the head of the ticket stronger than in 2018 and TPP also moving into KMT space it is possible that post-election TPP could become a kingmaker and the Pan-Blues will need TPP+allies to capture the speaker spot.

9) In Hsinchu City(新竹市) the Pan-Blue flipped the city assembly in 2018 from the DPP-NPA alliance.  The pro-DPP KMT splinter NPA has since merged into the KMT creating a mega-KMT.  But an alliance of everyone cannot last long and some of the KMT forces in the city assembly election have defected to TPP.  With the race for mayor being a 3-way race between KMT DPP and TPP it is possible that TPP could emerge as a kingmaker in the city assembly.

[jaichind]

DPP's candidate for  臺北市(Taipei City)  Chen came out with a disastrous ad promoting his policy on free public bathrooms but with images of Chen looking like he is a peeping Tom



The ad was pulled right away after its disastrous reception.

[jaichind]

Pro-DPP SETN has the entire DPP's candidate for 臺北市(Taipei City)  Chen's disastrous ad since the Chen campaign already removed the ad.  Comment sections that are pro-DPP voters also openly mock what a disaster this is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCgBieoiI6w

Chen has to hope for some big news even to push this ad out of the news cycle.  The big winner out of this could be pro-TPP's Huang that could become the real challenger to the KMT in this race if Chen falters.

[jaichind]

On the ROC internet people are pointing out that DPP's candidate for 臺北市(Taipei City)  Chen ad's toilet scene looks just like a scene from a ROK movie about a school principal that sexually harrases students in his school.



There are political commentators that are saying that Chen's campaign must have double agents working for DPP VP Lai that want to ensure his defeat so Lai can take over DPP after DPP Prez Tsai gets hammered in the Nov elections.  That seems the only logical explanation that can explain such an ad being put out there.

In the meantime, political talk shows are now all about toilets and discussions on which type of toilets are cleaner or better since the Chen campaign was advocating Japan-style self-cleaning toilets in the ad.

[jaichind]

Deep Blue 苗栗縣(Miaoli County) KMT civil war is really a war between the Liu vs Huang factions along with an internal war within the Huang faction.

The Liu and Huang factions were formed in 1951 during the first election for county executive with the founders Liu and Huang both running as KMT candidates ending in a narrow victory for Liu.  But this election became the basis of the two factions with Huang emerging somewhat stronger.  The KMT would alternate between the two factions and try to arrange for the speaker of the county assembly to be from a different faction than the current county executive.  This did not prevent rebellions from the opposing factions.  Also within both Liu and Huang factions there developed subfractions.  The DPP emerged in the 1980s here as part of a split within the Huang faction where part of the Huang faction became proto-DPP.

The 1989-2005 county executive elections saw KMT civil wars every election with the first few being Hunag faction civil wars

1989
KMT           44.54% (Huang faction)
proto-DPP   29.03% (Huang faction rebel)
KMT rebel   26.43% (Liu faction)


1993
KMT rebel   38.25% (Huang faction rebel)
KMT           33.58% (Huang faction) (incumbent)
DPP            25.40% (Huang faction background)

The KMT rebel rejoined the KMT after the election under the de facto rule "if you win you are KMT" which is similar to "if you win you are LDP" in Japan.


1997
KMT rebel   54.80% (Huang faction rebel)
KMT           35.37% (Huang faction) (incumbent) (won in 1993 as KMT Huang faction rebel)
NP               5.66%
DPP             4.17%

KMT Huang faction rebels had good relations with the ex-Huang faction rebel and the Huang faction-dominated DPP and the entire DPP vote shifted to him to defeat the KMT incumbent


2001
KMT rebel   51.80% (Huang faction rebel) (incumbent) (backed by PFP)
KMT           23.88% (Liu faction)
DPP            23.55%


2005
KMT           47.91% (Liu faction) (first Hoklo county executive elected)
DPP            29.86%
KMT rebel   17.07% (Huang faction) (backed by PFP)
KMT rebel    3.47% (Liu faction rebel)

2009 2014 and 2018 saw the Liu vs Huang faction battle contained.  The Liu faction incumbent elected in 2005 was re-elected in 2009 without any harassment from the Huang faction.  In return, the Liu faction backed the Huang faction candidate running as a KMT rebel in 2005 to run in 2014 and win.  In 2014 there was a threat from the old Liu faction incumbent from 2005-2014 to run against the Huang faction incumbent in 2014 but was talked by the KMT high command out of it on the basis that in 2022 it will be the Liu faction's turn again.  During this period it was clear that the Pan-Green vote has risen to 35% which does mean the KMT risks losing to DPP if the KMT vote is split down the middle which helps create a tense peace between the two factions.

Now in 2022, the Huang faction incumbent is backing his fellow Huang faction county assembly speaker (note that with a Liu faction county executive the county assembly speaker is certainly to be Huang faction) to run against the Liu faction official KMT candidate.  Note this move has split the Huang faction as well.  The old Huang faction rebel incumbent of 1997-2005 is backing the Liu faction official candidate and saying that the Huang faction rebellion is a renegade operation that does not have the full support of the Huang faction.

[jaichind]

Prominent ROC semiconductor kingpin and founder UMC 曹興誠(Robert Tsao) is in the news.  He had a clash with a reporter from Deep Blue and pro-Unification CTiTV where he accused CTiTV of being "Communist bandits."  This turn of events is pretty representative of how opinions on PRC-ROC ties have evolved over the years.

曹興誠(Robert Tsao) was actually born in Mainland China and moved to Taiwan Province as a young child fleeing the victorious PLA.  He was pretty aligned with the KMT as he get involved in consumer electronics and built the semiconductor industry on ROC along with help from the KMT administration in the 1970s and 1980s.  During this time you can call him "Blue" in political orientation. 

Then like many from the ROC business class, he discovers the expanding PRC market both a source production and consumer market.  Starting in the 1990s he became very involved with investments in the PRC.  Starting in the late 1990s the KMT became to set restrictions on investments in the PRC which was accelerated by the income DPP regime in 2000 曹興誠(Robert Tsao) became very unhappy with these restrictions.  As his business in the PRC grew he became more aligned with the CCP and his political position can be described as "Red".  In the 2008 ROC Prez elections, he took out many media ads advocating for PRC-ROC reunification.

Starting around the early 2010s the PRC made a call to not be under the thumb of people like 曹興誠(Robert Tsao) as far as high technology is concerned and tried to create an independent semiconductor industry.  This involved poaching a lot of top talent from 曹興誠(Robert Tsao)'s UMC.  As a result by the mid to late 2010s 曹興誠(Robert Tsao) started to lose money on his investments on the mainland leading to UMC's footprint shrinking dramatically on the PRC

By 2019 曹興誠(Robert Tsao)  had shifted to an anti-PRC stance politically had started to fund the DPP on ROC and started to call for backing a pro-Taiwan Indpenencence position.  He now wants to fund a massive anti-CCP militia to be ready in case of a PLA invasion of ROC although it seems DPP was not too hot on this idea (such a militia could turn against the DPP in the future of course.)

This is a microcosm of how opinions shifted on ROC on PRC-ROC relationships.  Back in the 1990s, it was the upper middle class that worked in medium and high tech was the most positive on PRC-ROC relationships since they have a comparative advantage in the PRC market.  It was a low-tech lower middle class that had nothing to gain and plenty to lose by better PRC-ROC ties.  By the 2010s the PRC has moved up enough on the economic chain that it became a direct threat to the upper middle class that worked in medium and high tech in head-to-head competition.  As a result, the high-income high educated biased in favor of PRC-ROC ties reversed and it is now the lower middle class that seems to trend toward being ok with better PRC-ROC ties, and the upper middle class that worked in medium and high tech sectors that are turning toward a pro-independence position and voting more pan-Green.

[jaichind]

https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E6%9B%B9%E8%88%88%E8%AA%A0%E6%A7%93%E4%B8%8A%E6%9F%AF%E6%96%87%E5%93%B2-1%E5%8F%A5%E6%80%92%E5%97%86-%E9%86%9C%E5%8C%96%E6%8A%97%E4%B8%AD%E4%BF%9D%E5%8F%B0-065442161.html

This story is about a clash between pro-DPP semiconductor kingpin and founder of UMC 曹興誠(Robert Tsao) and TPP leader and mayor of Taipei 柯文哲(Ko Wen-je).  The story is about Tsao attacking Ko for selling out Taiwan to the CCP and Ko attacking Tsao for being delusional and unrealistic.

The reason why this article is interesting is that it would boggle the mind of someone in circa 2010.  As mentioned before Tsao was pro-Blue his entire life and for a period when he was very invested in the PRC can be viewed as pro-Red.  After his falling out with the CCP in the mid to late 2010s did he shift to a decisive pro-Green position.   Ko was a famous pro-DPP doctor and was considered Deep Green, was a strong pro-Taiwan Independence supporter, and often attacked the KMT and the Pan-Blues in the 2000s-2014 for selling out Taiwan to the CCP.  Ko only got into politics because he had a falling out with the ROC medical establishment over some scandal where he felt he was being made the fall guy and ran for mayor of Taipei as a pro-DPP independent.  Ko has since fallen out with DPP and formed TPP which over the last couple of years has become a de facto pan-Blue party.

So a similar exchange between Tsao and Ko in 2008 would have Ko attacking Tsao as being a traitor and colluding with the CCP and Tsao attacking Ko for leading ROC to disaster with unrealistic assessments of the relative power balance between PRC-ROC as well as the benefits of working with PRC on a realistic basis.  Now it is the other way around.

[jaichind]

TVBS poll for  Taoyuan City (桃園市) - DPP regains a bit of ground

KMT              36
DPP              27 (+2)
DPP rebel        8 (-2)
TPP                5 (-2)

DPP candidate consolidates the DPP vote from the DPP rebel who is now eating just as much from Blue as Green vote.  Some anti-DPP tactical votes flowed back to KMT but the KMT candidate lost some ground with pan-Blue voters moving to undecided.

[jaichind]

For the 3-way race in 臺北市(Taipei City) it would be interesting to think about where each camp would WANT the polls to be right now to get the best of tactical voting at the end.   DPP's Chen has high disapprovals but a core DPP vote.  Both KMT's Chiang and pro-TPP's Huang have higher approvals but Huang does not have a large dedicated core.

What KMT's Chiang will want the polls to be like
KMT Chiang      40
DPP Chen         33
Pro-TPP Huang  22

KMT is well ahead and a high DPP support rate means that DPP's Chen has mostly consolidated the DPP vote.  The pro-TPP Huang vote at this stage is mostly anti-Chen and will now tactically vote for KMT Chiang giving him a solid victory.

What DPP's Chen will want the polls to be like
KMT Chiang       34
DPP Chen          31
Pro-TPP Huang   30

A 3-way tie removes any chances of Chiang-Huang tactical voting by anti-Chen voters and Chen could pull through on last minute higher turnout on the Pan-Green side


What pro-TPP Huang will want the polls to be like
KMT Chaing       37
Pro-TPP Huang   33
DPP Chen          25

DPP Chen would be mostly out of the race with Pro-TPP Huang now within striking distance and get anti-KMT tactical voting from the DPP.

I am pretty sure "internal" poll leaks from each camp will match what is ideal for each camp which is above.


The last TVBS poll from late Aug has

KMT        36 (-3)
DPP        23 (+5)
Pro-TPP   26 (+2)

I guess right now the race is a bit closer to where pro-TPP Huang wants it.  Huang has been attacking Chiang recently mostly on the logic that she wants to draw more anti-KMT votes to her side and marginalize DPP Chen.

[jaichind]

KMT internal poll for  臺北市(Taipei City)

KMT Chiang      33
DPP Chen         25
Por-TPP Huang  19

This matches pretty well with my writeup on what the KMT would WANT the polling to be right now

What KMT's Chiang will want the polls to be like
KMT Chiang      40
DPP Chen         33
Pro-TPP Huang  22

KMT is well ahead and a high DPP support rate means that DPP's Chen has mostly consolidated the DPP vote.  The pro-TPP Huang vote at this stage is mostly anti-Chen and will now tactically vote for KMT Chiang giving him a solid victory.
 

[jaichind]

TPOF (run by DPP renegades) poll on party ID has a sharp surge for TPP.  Historically TPOF has a non-DPP pro-Green lean and has erratic results.

DPP   22.4 (-7.8 )
TPP    20.9 (+7.5)
KMT   15.4 (-1.1)
NPP      6.4 (+4.3)
TSP      5.9 (+4.6)



Pan-Blue TPP+KMT            36.3 (+6.4)
PanGreen DPP+NPP+TSP   33.2 (+1.1)

These numbers look funny where it is clear DPP and KMT are underestimated and TPP NPP TSP are overestimated.  This poll looks like it has a very heavy youth lean.  The trends might be right but the absolute numbers make no sense.

[jaichind]

Latest UDN poll has approval/disapproval of Tsai's PRC-ROC policy falling to  33/53 which is reaching 2017 levels. Good news for DPP is that it is not as bad as 2018.  But for sure the "PRC" card is losing potency for the DPP

[jaichind]

TPOF poll (mostly staffed by DPP renegades which has a non-DPP pan-Green lean) now has DPP Prez Tsai's approval/disapproval at near parity and most likely going into negative territory soon

[jaichind]

The daughter of the  KMT speaker of the Kaohsiung assembly 許崑源(Shu Kuan-Yuan) who committed suicide in 2020 after KMT mayor Han was recalled (he was seriously ill already) will run for MLA in her father's district for the KMT.

In a shock, an hour after Han was recalled, the KMT speaker of the Kaohsiung assembly 許崑源(Shu Kuan-Yuan) who was instrumental in helping Han get elected in 2018 and recaptured a KMT majority in the Kaoshiung assembly, committed suicide.

許崑源(Shu Kuan-Yuan)  actually comes from a DPP background.  His brother was a founding member of the DPP and he was involved in opposition anti-KMT politics in the 1980s and 1990s.  In the 2000s he shifted over to become a pro-KMT Independent and became the speaker of the Kaohsiung city assembly in 2010.  He lost the role in the 2014 DPP landslide which saw the Pan-Green forces capture the  Kaohsiung city assembly.  He rode the Han coattails in 2018 to help recapture a KMT majority in the  Kaohsiung city assembly and became the speaker again in 2018.

It seems that 許崑源(Shu Kuan-Yuan) was in poor health for a while and Han's recall could have been the last straw to push him over the edge.

[jaichind]

Ettoday poll on   臺北市(Taipei City)


KMT Chiang      36.9 (+1.7)
DPP Chen         29.4 (-0.5)
pro-TPP Huang  22.8 (-3.1)



This poll is moving in the direction of what the KMT want.  The main risk to KMT is a DPP collapse into third where the pan-Green vote shifts to pro-TPP Huang to defeat KMT.  Given DPP Chen's high negatives KMT can expect to win in a KMT-DPP faceoff with respect to tactical voting.

[jaichind]

With the election for the DPP not going well in the North (which is very bad for Tsai as all the Northern candidates for the DPP are from pro-Tsai factions of DPP) it seems the DPP is relying on pro-DPP media to go on the attack for DPP and mobilize the DPP base to turn out (sort of what Rush Limbaugh did for the GOP in the 1990s.)

The one that is clearly the highest profile is 周玉蔻(Clara Chou) who has her own political talk radio-like discussion show on the pro-DPP FTV.   SETTV is also pro-DPP but SETTV tends to be pro-Pan-Green while FTV has more directly linked to the DPP.  It seems recently 周玉蔻(Clara Chou)  got in trouble by attacking the Buddhist lay organization 慈濟(Tzu Chi)  which has a massive membership on ROC (could be up to 1 million affiliates) as a CPP lapdog over some claims and counter-claims that 慈濟(Tzu Chi) was trying to buy COVID-19 vaccines but was being blocked by the DPP regime.  This is a big mistake because 慈濟(Tzu Chi)  is highly respected and has many members which are certainly pro-DPP voters.  DPP Prez Tsai had to walk it back and try to mend fences with 慈濟(Tzu Chi).

周玉蔻(Clara Chou) is another famous party/ideology hooper.  In the 1990s she was a pro-KMT reporter and became famous because she was having an affair with a high-ranking KMT MP and then cabinet member.   When the DPP came into power she switched to a pro-Green position and became a pro-DPP commentator.  In 2005 she ran for the TSU as its candidate for mayor of Taipei.  She shifted again after 2008 when the KMT returned to power and became a member of the KMT in 2012.  In 2013 it seems she took a graduate course on Mainland China at the University of Nanjing and posted all sorts of social media posts praising the PRC and how her fellow Mainland Chinese students are just like family.  In 2014 when the wind was blowing in the DPP direction she shifted back to a pro-DPP position and is runs a pro-DPP political talk show on pro-DPP FTV.  It is just funny that she now attacks 慈濟(Tzu Chi) as a CCP crony when there are still records of her social media posts from 2013 where she clearly was acting in a way that made her look like a pro-CCP lapdog.

[jaichind]

It's pretty clear in this election cycle that TPP is going after the Pan-Blue vote. A lot of TPP candidates are appearing in pro-Blue political discussion shows and joining in their attacks on the DPP.  The KMT should watch out.  While it makes them feel good that TPP is helping them attack the DPP and most likely increasing the anti-DPP vote but it also means the TPP will share in a greater % of the anti-DPP vote.

[xelas81]

It's pretty clear in this election cycle that TPP is going after the Pan-Blue vote. A lot of TPP candidates are appearing in pro-Blue political discussion shows and joining in their attacks on the DPP.  The KMT should watch out.  While it makes them feel good that TPP is helping them attack the DPP and most likely increasing the anti-DPP vote but it also means the TPP will share in a greater % of the anti-DPP vote.

So TPP is is now making their views on the cross-strait relationship clear?

[jaichind]

It's pretty clear in this election cycle that TPP is going after the Pan-Blue vote. A lot of TPP candidates are appearing in pro-Blue political discussion shows and joining in their attacks on the DPP.  The KMT should watch out.  While it makes them feel good that TPP is helping them attack the DPP and most likely increasing the anti-DPP vote but it also means the TPP will share in a greater % of the anti-DPP vote.

So TPP is is now making their views on the cross-strait relationship clear?

Not really.  They are still mostly attacking strawman DPP arguments and pushing for a "pragmatic" approach with respect to PRC.    So they are saying DPP is wrong but does not say what they will do instead.