2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

At this stage, there should be an across-the-board review of all Master's dissertation papers written by all active politicians after they began a career in politics.  If not, any postgraduate degree acquired by any politician after they began a life in politics will now be suspect.

DPP MP for Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7) and losing candidate for mayor 蔡適應 (Tsai Tse-Yin) refusal to resign as MP after having his doctorate degree removed by Taiwan University is playing very badly in pro-DPP youth circles.

Academic fraud is, likely, far more common than most people expect it to be. Politicians probably just as likely to do it as the rest.

In my view, they should set up a different type of degree that these active politicians can get, sort of like the Part-time MBA vs the regular MBA.  The reality is that people who are active politicians cannot possibly have the time to do research and write a master's thesis while doing a full-time job as a politician.  They should accept that and have a degree that takes less time and effort to make it even possible.

That sounds like a solid idea.

[jaichind]

Another thought on this whole plagiarism scandal is that reason behind all this is lots of political candidates on ROC make a big deal of advertising their academic credentials.  Because of this, there are incentives for politicians to try to upgrade their academic resumes and in this case through illegitimate means.

The reason why advertising your academic credentials matter in elections comes from the old Chinese Imperial civil service exam system that lasted from the 600s to the early 1900s.  The idea is that promotion into very sought-after government and administrative posts are done via several layers of civil service exams.  This creates a historical impression of strong academic performance = strong administrative performance.  

I think this correlation is weak at best.  People who think this have not really thought through the reason for the imperial civil service exams.  The imperial civil service exams are a de facto IQ test whose job is to make sure that those with the highest IQ are working for the government and not out there organizing rebellions.   It's not those with high IQs who are good at administration (although I am sure there is an IQ floor to be a good administrator)  but the ruling regime much rather pays these people with prestige and rank within the system and not risk them being outside the system to overthrow it.  The idea is to keep high-IQ people working hard to pass the exams instead of coming up with crazy ideas like changing the status quo.  Whether they do a good job at administration is secondary.

[jaichind]

There will be a by-election on Jan 8th to fill Chiang's seat (臺北市 (Taipei City) 3rd.)  The DPP candidate is the same candidate as the one that ran against Chiang in 2020 (and did better than expected.)  The KMT is going with a popular local city assembly MLA that was just elected.  By-elections are low-turnout elections where name recognition is the name of the game.  The DPP candidate that ran here in 2020 has a clear edge but the very strong KMT city assembly MLA has star power and should win in this leans Blue district.

[jaichind]

An interesting MLA was elected in Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +8).

One 蔡政宜(Tsai Cheng-Yi) was elected as a pro-KMT independent with the largest vote share in his district and second highest vote across the entire  Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) county assembly election.


蔡政宜(Tsai Cheng-Yi) is a local mafia don who was the mastermind in a massive baseball betting conspiracy back in 2009 which was the ROC version of the 1919 Black Sox Scandal in USA MLB.  He was arrested and put in jail for 4 years.  He was mostly not political but it seems the pro-KMT Huang faction, eager to get one over its pro-DPP Lin faction rival, got 蔡政宜(Tsai Cheng-Yi) to run.  He successfully squeezes out a DPP candidate in his district.

In rural areas, it is hard to figure out where local factions stop and the mafia begins.  蔡政宜(Tsai Cheng-Yi) might be a mafia don but he gets things done and that is why he won the vote across the political spectrum to be elected to the counting assembly.  On election night ROC professional fans had a meltdown over 蔡政宜(Tsai Cheng-Yi)'s victory.  There are now calls for the ROC professional baseball league to vacate  Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +8) due to this result.

蔡政宜(Tsai Cheng-Yi) having his own powerbase would make him hard to control for the Huang faction and it would not surprise me at all now that he is elected he will have no problem doing business with the pro-DPP Lin faction.

[jaichind]

The main problem for Lai is now that the Tsai faction is so damaged from the election and continued scandals there is an argument for Lai to take over as DPP party chairperson to stop the damage done to DPP.   The problem with that is the Tsai faction will say that Lai is trying to be both a player and the referee at the same time.  If the Tsai faction continues to control the DPP chairperson then they get to set the rules for the DPP 2024 nomination.   Lai has no one with high stature within the DPP that can run for DPP chairperson which now puts him in this difficult situation.

[jaichind]

The ROC media now is filled with rumors that Lai will come out to run for the DPP Chairperson position and also run for the 2024 DPP Prez nomination.    If so he is giving up any hope of compromise with DPP Prez Tsai and the Tsai faction.  He is just going to bulldoze over them to win the nomination.

[jaichind]

More fun facts about the current and stepping down Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan) plagiarism scandal. Since a good part of his master's thesis is just copied from various PRC research papers it seems he never "politically purified" those sections he (or the person he paid to write the paper) copied.  So in the paper there are all sorts of sections that says things like "the political system of our country" (in reference to PRC.)  So now we have  鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan)  on record in refereeing to the PRC as "my country" which is the language as the radical pro-CCP unificationists .   I am strongly pro-unification but I would never refer to  PRC is not my country.  China is my country but the PRC to me is an illegal regime that usurped the rightful government of China which is ROC.   鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan), in his paper, in theory went much further than myself on a pro-CCP stance.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The ROC media now is filled with rumors that Lai will come out to run for the DPP Chairperson position and also run for the 2024 DPP Prez nomination.    If so he is giving up any hope of compromise with DPP Prez Tsai and the Tsai faction.  He is just going to bulldoze over them to win the nomination.

Would the negative optics (insofar as they exist) of Lai being party president and a candidate for the nomination hurt him in the primary?

[jaichind]

The ROC media now is filled with rumors that Lai will come out to run for the DPP Chairperson position and also run for the 2024 DPP Prez nomination.    If so he is giving up any hope of compromise with DPP Prez Tsai and the Tsai faction.  He is just going to bulldoze over them to win the nomination.

Would the negative optics (insofar as they exist) of Lai being party president and a candidate for the nomination hurt him in the primary?

The latest media report is that DPP VP Lai already went to DPP Prez Tsai and told her that he is running for the DPP Chairperson role and will run for the DPP Prez primary.  The fact is it has not made official is because of attempts on both sides to try to work something out before an open break.  It seems what provoked Lai's dramatic move is that the word is out that after the plagiarism scandal hit  Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) 鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan) the new Tsai faction plan is to have former DPP VP Chen become PM in Jan (after Chinese New Year) and then have Chen run for DPP nomination.  Lai's thinking is that if the Tsai faction controls the DPP Chairperson and has Chen become PM with the vast resources at his disposal as PM the entire DPP nomination process will be rigged again just like in 2019.  So as a result Lai is coming out into the open to challenge this clear attempt to push him out of the DPP Prez nomination.

As for negative effects on Lai.  It comes down to him persuading Tsai to see that resisting him is futile and she should get out of his way.  Tsai is still popular with a part of the DPP base (especially in the North) as well as some Northern swing voters.  If Lai bulldozes his way to the DPP nomination in a public way that clearly disregards the "face" of Tsai he risks a Northern blowback to this Southern attempt to take over the DPP.

The good news for the DPP is that at the Prez level of elections no matter how bad the DPP civil war has been they always unite.  This is not always true at the MP and county magistrate/mayor level although they are better at it than the KMT at the Prez level the DPP base is solid.  Lai's main risk is with Northern pro-Tsai but non-traditional DPP voters.  One can counter-argue that it might not matter unless the KMT comes up with someone that can appeal to those voters.

[jaichind]

TVBS poll for delayed mayor contest for Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +4)


KMT        59 (incumbant)
DPP        22



I would not take this poll literally.  This is a combination of incumbent advantage plus a demoralized DPP vote base which are much more likely not to respond or say undecided.  I read this poll more as a 56-42 lead for KMT.

My projection for this race was a 53-45 win by KMT.   A demoralized DPP turnout could make it a larger gap but so could an overconfident KMT base.  I think they cancel each other out and it will be KMT 53-45 win.

One thing the KMT was worried about did not take place.  The KMT feared that a delayed election would mean the entire DPP machine will descend on Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +4) to try to flip it.  Instead, the DPP is spending all its time on Tsai vs Lai battles and does not seem to even want to bother with trying to win this election.

[jaichind]

Its official, Lai enters the race for DPP Chairperson.  Tsai, your move.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Its official, Lai enters the race for DPP Chairperson.  Tsai, your move.

The Go game continues.

[jaichind]

Here we go again.  Just like in 2018 the upcoming election for Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) City assembly speaker/deputy speaker is leading to a split in the DPP.  Back in 2018 the New Tide faction insisted on a DPP slate of both New Tide faction MLAs and the anti-New Tide DPP bolted from DPP and worked with the Pan-Blue camp to elect a non-New Tide DPP speaker.

Fast forward to 2022.  All the anti-New Tide DPP MLAs that bolted in 2018 were let back into the DPP other than the anti-New Tide Speaker himself.

This time DPP has 28 MLAs out of 57.  There is 1 TSU MLA and 1 TSP MLA that will back DPP.  There are 3 pro-DPP independents and the anti-New Tide Speaker.  The Pan-Blue camp has 23 MLAs.  Once again the New Tide majority will run a slate of 2 New Tide MLAs to become speaker/deputy speaker.  6 anti-New Tide MLAs left the meeting where this was decided in protest.  Both sides (New Tide and anti-New Tide) are accusing each other of being linked to the mafia.

So in theory the anti-New Tide bloc can form an alliance with the Pan-Blue bloc and get:

23 Pan-Blue + 6 anti-New Tide DPP MLAs + 1 anti-New Tide Speaker = 30 MLA

while the pro-New Tide bloc can get

22 New Tide DPP + 2 Deep Green + 3 pro-DPP independents = 26 MLA

Unless the New Tide DPP can find a way to bribe and/or threaten (like expelling from the party just like in 2018) the 6 anti-New Tide MLAs they might be facing defeat.  The New Tide DPP could also do a triple cross and do deal with the KMT to defeat the anti-New Tide DPP.  That would not surprise me given how tense this battle of New Tide vs anti-New Tide is becoming.

At the national level, Lai is Southern New Tide which would be the   Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) New Tide faction while Tsai is more aligned with the anti-New Tide faction.

[jaichind]

DPP MP 陳亭妃(Chen Ting-fei) who is co-leader of Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) DPP anti-New Tide faction (Tainan City (臺南市) city assembly ex-DPP and now independent Speaker 郭信良 (Guo Shin-Liang)) holds a press conference accusing the DPP city assembly caucus New Tide speaker/deputy speaker nominees as having links to criminal and mafia in a picture where both New Tide nominees are shares a meal with people who are likely linked to the criminal world.

During the press conference   陳亭妃(Chen Ting-fei)  broke down and started to cry saying that her mother is fearful for her life for revealing these criminal links of the DPP New Tide faction.

The New Tide and anti-New Tide faction are going all out in the Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) city county speaker battle.

[jaichind]

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/tiktok-taiwan-update-12122022233320.html

"Taiwan considers extending TikTok ban to private sector"

It seems one DPP post mortems of the election is that they lost the youth vote due to PRC manipulation of ROC youth via TikTok videos.  Action item: ban TikTok across the  board ?  Note there are more than 7 million TikTok users on ROC.  This sounds like mission impossible.

[xelas81]

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/tiktok-taiwan-update-12122022233320.html

"Taiwan considers extending TikTok ban to private sector"

It seems one DPP post mortems of the election is that they lost the youth vote due to PRC manipulation of ROC youth via TikTok videos.  Action item: ban TikTok across the  board ?  Note there are more than 7 million TikTok users on ROC.  This sounds like mission impossible.

Is there any movement within deep Greens to ban/boycott Tiktok and other PRC products?

[jaichind]

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/tiktok-taiwan-update-12122022233320.html

"Taiwan considers extending TikTok ban to private sector"

It seems one DPP post mortems of the election is that they lost the youth vote due to PRC manipulation of ROC youth via TikTok videos.  Action item: ban TikTok across the  board ?  Note there are more than 7 million TikTok users on ROC.  This sounds like mission impossible.

Is there any movement within deep Greens to ban/boycott Tiktok and other PRC products?

Deep Greens can be divided into two types
a) Older South Bubba Billy Bob DPP rural core base.  These people do not use the internet and given their income really does not buy anything made in PRC anyway
b) Urban progressive youth.  This bloc 30-40 years ago was more anti-USA as part of the anti-establishment anti-hyperpower but are now anti-PRC because the PRC is now viewed as the hyper imperialist power.  This bloc of people reject authority (anti-PRC is about anti-PRC authority) so they might dislike PRC but will clearly not like being told they cannot use TikTok.

[jaichind]

Now that Chiang Kai-Shek's great grandson got elected as mayor of Taipei City the DPP created Transitional Justice Commission (something the DPP regime created in 2016 to go after pro-KMT organization) just launched another campaign to take down Chiang Kai-Shek statues.  They are going to provide subsidies to any public facility (schools, public parks,  government offices) that want to remove the still over 3000+ Chiang Kai-Shek statues all over ROC.  The subsidy seems small enough that this will go nowhere.  

Of course this is vaporware.  Almost all significant cities and towns has as one of its main road "Chiang Kai-Shek Road."  When DPP Prez Tsai leaves the ROC Prez office to travel to the local airport she has to drive a significant distance on the "Chiang Kai-Shek Road"  There has been no attempt to change these names mostly because even Deep Green voters living on these roads does not want to go through the hassle of changing all public records  to reflect a new address.  As a result all these "Chiang Kai-Shek Roads" will stay and continue to stay.  

[jaichind]

TVBS poll for Taipei 3rd by-election (The seat Chiang is vacating)

KMT      46
DPP       38

The DPP candidate is the same as the 2020 election so he does have a name recognition advantage.  The KMT candidate is a heavyweight MLA in part of the 3rd but she has to deal with the backlash of being drafted to run right after winning in the assembly election just a couple of weeks ago.

The seat is Blue +3 so a 8 point KMT win implies a 51-49 Blue/Green environment which is not bad for the DPP given how badly they got hammered just a couple of weeks ago.

[jaichind]

Pro-DPP media seems to continue to focus their attacks on TPP versus KMT.  I guess their view is that TPP cut into the DPP youth vote this last election and that knocking down TPP is the best way to push up DPP support.

[jaichind]

Ko will set up a PAC which is a clear sign that he is looking into running in 2024.  Ko has in the past attacked PACs saying that they are like a "Ring of Power" for politicians which is something you cannot take off if you start using them.  It seems now that criticism is out the window.

[jaichind]

Watching on youtube a live stream of the final rally of Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +4) KMT incumbent 黃敏惠(Huang Min-hui) just because I stumbled on it.  A large number of KMT kingpins are there.

Thoughts are
a) It is interesting how all KMT rallies now pretty much copy how DPP rallies were done back in the 1990s.  The DPP rallies in the 1990s were fairly effective and the KMT had to copy to adopt.  Similar to how in rural counties DPP had to copy the KMT style of working with and integrating with key local factions.
b) All Deep Blue speakers (like Chiang and KMT chairperson Chu) spoke in the Hoklo dialect (since many of them have a Mainlander background) while all light Blue speakers (including the candidate herself) spoke in Mandarin.  Both types are trying to make up for deficiencies given their background.

[jaichind]

With 桃園市(Taoyuan City) and 臺北市(Taipei City) beginning to look out of reach for the DPP leading to a wipeout of the DPP in the North and with chances of a DPP flip in Central and South looking very dim, it seems the DPP is going all out in  Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3)  to try to get a win.

Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) is still a good target for the DPP because there seems to be a large anti-DPP majority in the North but the 3-way race in  Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) gives the DPP a chance.   The frontrunner right now is TPP's 高虹安(Ann Kao).  



The third-place KMT candidate recently raised concerns about 高虹安(Ann Kao)'s boyfriend being her government-paid assistant (she is currently a TPP PR MP) and that he is really working part-time while drawing a full-time salary and donating a good part of his salary to the TPP.  The DPP has decided to run with this scandal.  So far 高虹安(Ann Kao) is not doing a great job explaining what is going on here which gives an opening for the DPP and KMT to make this a neck-to-neck 3-way race versus a TPP lead.

Big news.  The local Taipei prosecution office called in  Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) TPP mayor-elect 高虹安(Ann Kao) over this case.  She, her boyfriend, and MP assistant plus a bunch of her staff were held for over 6 hours for questioning and were all released on bail.  There is a chance that she might not even be able to be sworn in on Dec 25th.    There is a common view in KMT and TPP circles that this is one last DPP attempt for losing the mayor office of  Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3).  Not sure how this going to play out but this could be a catalyst for a KMT-TPP alliance in 2024.

[jaichind]

The main issue with this significant Taipei persecution effort which involved sealing off TPP MP and mayor-elect 高虹安(Ann Kao) office in the Legislature and getting all these people (including the mayor election) for 6-hour long interrogations is one of proportion.  At issue here is the $20K compensation her boyfriend acquired working as her assistant in the ROC legislature which he then donated to the TPP.  It just seems there are bigger fishes to fry even if what is going on here is not legit since $20K seems like a nothing burger compared to other scams going on out there.

[jaichind]

It seems a semi-celebrity that got wrapped up in this investigation is  Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) mayor-elect 高虹安(Ann Kao) good friend and former model 王郁文 (Wang Yo-Wen) who was also acting as an assistant to the mayor-elect.  Wang was also part of a whole bunch of people interrogated for 6 hours and only released on bail


As mentioned 王郁文 (Wang Yo-Wen) used to be a model and was fairly well known for being on a social media trending list back in 2012 called the "13 Hot women of Taiwan University" as examples of women with a combination of looks and brains.

Here is Wang (in the middle) from that list which was being passed around like crazy back in 2012.


Her being involved is only adding to the media feeding frenzy of this development.