2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022

[jaichind]

There are rumors of anti-DPP groups moving for a KMT-TPP swap where the pro-TPP vote tactically votes for KMT in 臺北市(Taipei City)  and the pro-KMT vote for TPP 新竹市(Hsinchu City).  In many ways, this does not make sense because there are reasons to believe that DPP is in 3rd (although if true close 3rd) in both places.   This seems to be driven by local anti-DPP forces in both places working to make sure there is a 100% chance the DPP does not win in both places.  Would not surprise me if the DPP VP Lai and gang are behind this as these two cities and 桃園市(Taoyuan City) will be how Tsai will be judged on how successful she is in this round of elections.

It is interesting I think the dynamics of the race might go exactly the opposite of this idea.  If the DPP falls further in both places to a clear 3rd I think we will see anti-KMT tactical voting by the pro-DPP vote in 臺北市(Taipei City) while in 新竹市(Hsinchu City) I can see the local DPP vote tactically voting KMT to stop the TPP candidate.  In seems, the TPP candidate in 新竹市(Hsinchu City) is surging because she seems to go after the local vested interests which would be the DPP administration these last 8 years as well as the pan-Blue city assembly.  In many ways, I can see local pro-DPP vested interest preferring the KMT win than TPP if indeed the DPP candidate is out.

[jaichind]

DPP 2022 reminds me a lot of KMT 1998.  Both have a trump card that if the party rallies around in the next election (2000 and 2024) is very likely to win but the sitting Prez hates that trump card.  In 1998 KMT Prez Lee already had a falling out with his protege Soong (who later formed PFP).  Soong had broad appeal to both marginal DPP and NP voters and was fairly popular within the KMT.  Lee wanted to stop Soong from winning the 2000 KMT nomination at all costs.  Same with DPP VP Lai.  Lai has broad support within DPP and actually is preferred by marginal KMT and TPP voters over Tsai and other pro-Tsai candidates.  But DPP Prez Tsai is determined to stop Lai from becoming winning the 2024 DPP nomination.

In may ways Soong in 1998 and Lai in 2022 are popular BECAUSE they appealed to their own party and opposition voters by being known as the enemy of the sitting Prez of the ruling party.

In KMT Prez Lee's case, he needs to win the 1998 legislative election (back the legislative election cycle was separate from the Prez election cycle) as well as the 臺北市(Taipei City) mayor's race.  In order to do this Lee ran a campaign to win back the NP vote that the KMT lost in 1993-1995 and nominated popular former KMT Minister of Justice Ma for mayor of 臺北市(Taipei City).  Ma had appealed to both the pro-Lee and pro-Soong factions of the KMT and could appeal to NP voters.  Lee won his bet and won1998 elections consolidating his power within the KMT.  Lee then was able to control the KMT nomination process to get KMT VP Lien as the KMT candidate in 2000.  Soong bolted from the KMT to run in 2000 as an independent against KMT's Lien and DPP's Chen (who was defeated by Ma (became KMT Prez in 2008) in the 1998 臺北市(Taipei City) mayor election.)  With Lien and Soong spending a lot of energy attacking each other and exposing scandals about each other DPP Chen was able to win a narrow victory in a 3-way race in 2000.  So the KMT lost 2000 by winning 1998.  Had Lee lost the 1998 elections then Soong would have taken over the KMT and most likely have defeated DPP's Chen in 2000.

I think DPP/Tsai in 2022 faces a similar situation.  If Tsai pulls off a win in 2022 (doing well in the North marginals) then she can control the DPP nomination process for 2024.  But that risk a Lai bolt in 2024 if he sees his polling numbers looking good in a fractured race.  If the KMT and TPP (Ko) both run in 2024 that could make it even more appealing for Lai to run as an independent and it is anyone's race in this 4-way battle.   if instead, Tsai loses 2022 (which now looks likely) Lai will sweep into the control of the party and mostly become the DPP candidate of a fairly united party (assuming Tsai agrees to go quietly into de facto lame duck retirement within the DPP).  In such a case I think Lai is very likely to win in 2024.  So for the DPP, it might end up winning in 2024 by losing 2022 which is the opposite of the 1998 to 2000 experience for the KMT.

[jaichind]

Yesterday was the official start of the DPP's Chen campaign in 臺北市(Taipei City) for the mayor.  The DPP cold civil war was on full display.  Top DPP kingpins like DPP Prez Tsai, DPP VP Lai, and former DPP VP Chen attended.  It is said that former DPP VP Chen is one of several candidates that DPP Prez Tsai has in mind to run in the 2024 DPP primary to stop Lai.

During the event, there was zero interaction between DPP Prez Tsai/former DPP VP Chen on the one hand and DPP VP Lai on the other.  Both blocs spoke along with DPP candidate Chen at different times.

From left to right, former DPP VP Chen, DPP Prez Tsai, DPP candidate Chen


DPP VP Lai and DPP candidate Chen (note Lai does not wear a mask.  A reason for me to like him.  This business of everyone still wearing masks in publicic is just absurd and rediculous)


DPP candidate Chen was handpicked by DPP Prez Tsai and is well known to be in the DPP Prez Tsai faction.  Note the "reluctant" hand pose by DPP candidate Chen when DPP VP Lai is trying to raise DPP candidate Chen's hand.  This picture speaks a thousand words about the relationship between DPP VP Lai and the DPP Prez Tsai's faction.

Also at the event, DPP VP Lai "misspoke" and said, "the pandemic started in 臺北市(Taipei City)."   The pro-DPP Prez Tsai internet elements point out that DPP VP Lai is clearly trying to make sure DPP candidate Chen loses on purpose.  When DPP candidate Chen was Minister of Health the impression was that he discriminate against cities and counties not ruled by the DPP (which included 臺北市(Taipei City)) when it came to pandemic relief which is the main reason his personal negatives are so high in 臺北市(Taipei City).  One reading of DPP VP Lai's "misspeaking" by the pro-Tsai crowd is that he wants to reinforce this impression.

Cannot wait for Tsai vs Lai part II in 2023 (part I was in 2019 when Tsai handily beat Lai even though she was the underdog after a disastrous 2018 election) where Tsai is clearly a lame duck.

[jaichind]

For Lai 2024 will be do-or-die.  By 2024 Lai will be 65.  Ideally, for him, the DPP falls apart in the 2022 elections in the North so he can sweep in and get the DPP nomination.  If instead DPP does well and DPP Prez Tsai controls the DPP nomination process to lock him out he has to either run as an independent AND win or nominally back the DPP candidate but find a way to make sure the DPP does not win in 2024.  By 2028 Lai will be 69 and by 2032 he will be 73.   Lai running as the DPP candidate in 2028 in case the DPP loses in 2024 is already a stretch at 69 and he is likely to lose to the KMT
 (or maybe TPP) incumbent.  And waiting until 2032 at age 73 already means he is well past the sell-by date for politicians.  Lai's best chance is to just get the DPP nomination in 2024 and hope to beat the pan-Blues in a 3-way race (KMT and TPP running) and if not in a very risky move run as a DPP rebel and try to win a 4-way race. 

KMT and DPP culture is different.  You can run as a KMT rebel and still come back next cycle to run for the KMT.  The DPP culture does not accept this so if Lai runs in 2024 as a DPP rebel he has to win or it is the end of his political career.   Frankly given how loyal the core DPP base is Lai's chances of winning as a DPP rebel could only take place if it is a 4-way race.  A 3-way race between Lai, the DPP official candidate, and KMT would most likely mean KMT wins and certainly, Lai will NOT win.  All things considered, it is just best for Lai if the DPP gets creamed in 2022 in the North and he comes in to take over in 2023.

[jaichind]

Latest TVBS poll for  臺北市(Taipei City)

KMT Chiang      40 (+4)
Pro-TPP Huang  23 (-3)
DPP Chen         22 (-1)

The controversy of pro-DPP commentator 周玉蔻(Clara Chou) and her links to DPP Chen clearly helped to shift the anti-Chen tactical vote away from Pro-TPP Huang toward KMT Chiang.

Personal approvals/disapprovals
KMT Chaing        46(-3)/25(+1)
Pro-TPP Huang    49(-1)/20(+1)
DPP Chen           27(-2)/51(-1)

Still very bad for DPP Chen from a tactical voting point of view. 

The only way for KMT Chiang to be beaten now is a collapse of DPP Chen and a large part of the non-core DPP vote to shift to Pro-TPP Huang to defeat KMT Chiang.  That is sort of how Ko beat the KMT back in 2018 except while Pro-TPP Huang has good personal appeal she does not equal Ko in terms of Christina and frankly her Pan-Blue background does make it harder for the Pan-Green vote to shift completely to her.  In fact, with Ko becoming more aligned with the Pan-Blue camp since 2018 I am pretty sure if Ko re-ran the 2018 race he most likely cannot replicate his victory as more of the DPP vote would stay with the DPP candidate.

[jaichind]

Latest Ettoday poll for  臺北市(Taipei City)

KMT Chiang      39.6 (+2.7)
DPP Chen         27.0 (-2.4)
Pro-TPP Huang  23.3 (+0.5)



Mostly fits with other poll trends of KMT Chiang pulling away.  All 3 candidates have mostly consolidated their core base with Pro-TPP Huang eating into marginal DPP and some margin KMT youth vote. Note that the youth-heavy NPP vote leans pro-TPP Huang. The youth vote that pro-TPP Huang got most likely went to Tsai back in 2020 both due to her appeal and their aversion to KMT Han.  This time around and I suspect in 2024 this voting bloc will be up for grabs between the DPP and the TPP.  
 
KMT Chiang clearly has a gender gap strength with women while both DPP Chen and Pro-TPP Huang are weaker with women voters despite Pro-TPP Huang being a woman herself.

The undecided lean toward youth women which I suspect will just not end up voting which I guess is just fine by KMT Chiang as he is well ahead.

[jaichind]

My current guess for mayor and county executive elections
Incumbent strong almost everywhere

The best chance for a DPP flip is Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) where is a chaotic 3-way battle with a KMT rebel and then Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11) where a KMT rebel will most likely win but the last minute KMT consolidation might throw the race to the DPP.

KMT will flip Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) from TPP while TPP flips Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) from DPP in a close 3-way race.  KMT flips Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) and Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7) from DPP while holding on the key pro-DPP areas like Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6), Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +6), and Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +4) with the power of incumbency.

There is a tiny chance of a KMT flip of the open seat of Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +6).  The DPP candidate there has a KMT background (her father was a KMT MLA) so there is a chance that the DPP turnout might not be high and TPP take away just enough votes for the KMT to get through.  Most likely not though but if it did take place it would be a massive embarrassment for DPP Prez Tsai since this is her home county.

If the below were the result it would be a disaster for DPP Prez Tsai.

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) (KMT flip from TPP)
KMT         42% (Grandson and Great Grandson of Chiang the Younger and Chiang the Elder)
DPP         30%
pro-TPP    26%    


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +1)
KMT         61%  (incumbent) (KMT superstar, possible future KMT Prez or VP candidate)
DPP          39%  (former incumbent of Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +1))


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) (KMT flip from DPP)
KMT         46%
DPP         37%
DPP rebel 10%
TPP           7%


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +1)
KMT         61% (incumbent) (KMT superstar, possible future KMT VP candidate)
DPP          38%


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP          61% (incumbent) (in theory future DPP star, sister is pro-PRC which holds him back)
KMT          32%
Pan-Blue     5%
TSU rebel    1%


Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +6)
DPP         62% (incumbent)
KMT         37%
 
 
Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7) (KMT flip from DPP)
KMT           50%
DPP            42%
NPP              5%
KMT rebel     2%


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           49% (incumbent) (hit by a scandal which she claims is trumped up by DPP)
DPP            41%
TPP              8%


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +12)
KMT           65% (incumbent)
DPP            33%


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) (TPP flip from DPP !!!)
TPP             36%
KMT            32%
DPP             31%
 

Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11) (KMT rebel flip from KMT !!!)
KMT rebel     37%
DPP              32%
KMT             20%
NPP              10%


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Even)
KMT             56% (incumbent)
DPP              43%


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +5)
KMT             64%
DPP              35%


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +6)
KMT              55% (incumbent)
DPP              44%
 

Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              63% (incumbent)
KMT              37%
 

Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +4)
KMT             54% (incumbent)
DPP             44%
 

Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +6)
DPP             49%
KMT             45%
NPP               6%


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            64%  (incumbent)
DPP             35%
 

Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            61%  (incumbent)
DPP             38%  (tribal background means a bigger DPP wipeout is avoided)


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) (chaotic 3-way battle)
KMT             38%  (incumbent)
DPP              35%  (former incumbent)
KMT rebel     27%
 

Fujian Province Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +37) and Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +38) will be mostly all Blue battles.  In Kinmen County(金門縣) (PVI Blue +37) it is the KMT incumbent vs former KMT incumbent running as a rebel with no DPP candidate.  In  Lienchiang County(連江縣) (PVI Blue +38)  there is a nominal DPP candidate but the KMT nominated 2 candidates who will be fighting it out to see who wins.

[jaichind]

My current guess of the mayor and county executive elections works out to an around 55-45 vote share split between Pan-Blue and Pan-Green camps.  In 2018 it was around 52-48 for the Pan-Blues.  Note that in 2018 I counted pro-Ko votes as Pan-Green (Ko was in the middle of breaking up with DPP) and in 2022 I count TPP as Pan-Blue.  So the 2022 55-45 split(if my projection is right) most likely overestimates the Pan-Blue vote a bit and in 2018 the 52-48 Pan-Blue lead overestimates the Pan-Green votes somewhat.

A rough chart of the Pan-Blue/Pan-Green vote share split throughout the years are

                 Blue       Green
1993/94     56           44
1997/98     52           47 (deceptive, Pan-Blue vote was very split and DPP won this election round)
2001/02     53           47
2005/06     55           45 (Pan-Blue vote was united, big KMT victory)
2009/10     51           49
2014          43           57 (mega DPP landslide win)
2018          52           48 (pro-Ko vote counted as Pan-Green means overestimate Pan-Green)

Where 2014 was the clear outlier. 

If it ends up being 55-45 or 54-46 for the Pan-Blues that would mostly match historical pre-2009 patterns.

[jaichind]

ROC National Day ceremony (Oct 10 which marks the Wuhan uprising in 1911 which eventually led to the formation of ROC).



TPP leader and current mayor of Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) Ko (far Right) wanted to sit next to PFP leader Soong (second from right) to try to talk Soong into campaigning for pro-TPP Huang in Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4).  Soong has so far refused to do so since he is upset that Huang who was in PFP was "borrowed" by Ko to run as the de facto TPP candidate without his support.  It seems Soong did not interact with Ko during the ceremony so Ko's plans seem to have failed.

Second, from the left is Wu who was the former KMT PM and VP.  Wu was the Chairman of KMT in 2017-2020 and the hero of the 2018 KMT election win but the villain of the botched KMT primary process of 2019 leading to a KMT defeat in the 2020 Prez elections.

Far Left is former DPP VP Chen.  It is said that if DPP does poorly in the North this election cycle then DPP Tsai's plan to use the current DPP mayor of Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) Cheng the candidate to stop DPP VP Lai in the 2023 DPP Prez nomination will most likely have to be dropped. In such as case former DPP VP Chen who just recently joined DPP will be used by DPP Prez Tsai to run and try to stop Lai.

[jaichind]

DPP Prez Tsai's ROC national day speech actually had a compromise phrasing as her attempt to try to defuse the relations with PRC.   Historically DPP speech always has the phrase "Taiwan is a separate political entity from China."  This time Tsai said, "ROC is a separate political entity from China."   She is trying to tactically shift the DPP from the "Taiwan Independence" line to a "Two China" line.  The PRC will not accept either but might note that despite other parts of Tsai's speech being fairly hardline she did embed some wording that is trying to close the gap between DPP and PRC.

[jaichind]

TVBS poll for  Taoyuan City (桃園市) -  KMT gains some ground

KMT              38 (+2)
DPP               27 (--)
DPP rebel        6 (-2)
TPP                 5 (--)

In the last couple of months the trend is toward consolidation toward KMT and DPP

[jaichind]

There are more and more rumors coming out of DPP Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) that some pro-DPP elements are advocating for shifting their support to pro-TPP Huang to stop KMT Chiang given DPP Chen does not seem to have much of a chance.  They are throwing out leaks like "DPP Prez Tsai actually gets on well with pro-TPP Huang" as a way to signal this.  Other Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) DPP factions clearly are opposed to this and are sticking to all the way with the Chen line.  DPP Prez Tsai has to make a call (just like in 2018) on if she will give operational freedom to the local DPP to support tactical voting for pro-TPP Huang. Note that DPP Chen was handpicked by DPP Prez Tsai who might not be able to afford the prestige hit of a disastrous 3rd place here 2 elections in a row.

These rumors are not good for pro-TPP Huang if allowed to fester since they are coming in too early. They will push away light Blue anti-DPP votes away from her toward KMT Chiang.  If there is going to be DPP anti-KMT tactical voting for pro-TPP Huang it is best they execute 2-3 days before the election and not allow time for the pan-Blue voters to react and take make countermeasure decisions.

[jaichind]

ACEL poll for Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4)

KMT Chiang     30.0
DPP  Chen       27.5
Pro-TPP Huang 24.3


AECL is pro-KMT.  It is clear what they are up to.  They want to discourage DPP tactical voting for pro-TPP Huang and create a threat of a possible DPP Chen victory to trigger anti-DPP tactical voting by Pan-Blue Pro-TPP Huang voters.

[jaichind]

Japan's ROC politics expert 小笠原欣幸 (Ogasawara Yoshiyuki) predicts KMT wins 15 mayor/county magistrate seats, DPP 5, TPP 1, and Independent 1 (KMT rebel).

His prediction matches mine exactly with the only exception of Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) where I have the KMT incumbent barely hanging on against the former DPP incumbent that he defeated in 2018 and a KMT rebel but he has it as a DPP flip. 

I think if there is one projection of mine that I am not sure about it would be Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) given the strength of the former DPP incumbent and the unknown dynamic of the KMT rebel.  Still, I think KMT incumbent is more likely to win given the low-keyed campaign so far which should favor incumbents across the board.

In fact, my projection for this year has no incumbents losing but a lot of flips in open seats.

[jaichind]

TVBS poll for Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) (change from July)

TPP    34 (+8)
DPP   27 (+4)
KMT   21 (-6)

It seems part of the KMT vote is going over to TPP to defeat DPP.  The KMT candidate is the one with the most roots in the city so this poll most likely underestimates him but it seems the KMT has fallen to 3rd place here.

[jaichind]

Latest Ettoday poll for  臺北市(Taipei City)

KMT Chiang      40.2 (+0.6)
DPP Chen         28.8 (+1.8 )
Pro-TPP Huang  20.9 (-2.4)

Some pro-TPP Huang pan-Green voters move back to DPP.  Good news for both KMT and DPP.  DPP Chen's high negatives make KMT Chiang's lead more stable and DPP Chen being solidly in second saves the DPP and DPP Prez Tsai embarrassment of a meltdown here.

[jaichind]

One of the minor candidates for mayor of Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +4) passed away.  Since this is less than 30 days before the election the ROC election commission has suspended the election for now and make a call on if there should be a delay in the election.  Most likely not.

[xelas81]

Latest Ettoday poll for  臺北市(Taipei City)

KMT Chiang      40.2 (+0.6)
DPP Chen         28.8 (+1.8 )
Pro-TPP Huang  20.9 (-2.4)

Some pro-TPP Huang pan-Green voters move back to DPP.  Good news for both KMT and DPP.  DPP Chen's high negatives make KMT Chiang's lead more stable and DPP Chen being solidly in second saves the DPP and DPP Prez Tsai embarrassment of a meltdown here.

If Huang finishes at distant 3rd, would that end Ko's 2024 chances or will Ko run no matter the Taipei mayor election result?

[jaichind]

If Huang finishes at distant 3rd, would that end Ko's 2024 chances or will Ko run no matter the Taipei mayor election result?

It would complicate Ko's chances in 2024.  The main damage is that TPP will not have Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) as a platform.   He will have partial compensation by a likely TPP win of  Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3).

I think Ko's chances come down to who are the DPP and KMT Prez candidates.  The best DPP candidate would be Lai and the best KMT candidate would be Hou or Guo.  Neither set of candidates are "favored" by the ruling establishment of both parties.  But the desperation for victory might force both parties to push out their best candidate.  If either DPP or KMT puts up their best candidate then Ko will for sure run.  If it becomes DPP Lai vs KMT Guo I can see Ko forming a grand alliance with KMT in 2024 to take down DPP as Ko is close to Guo.  

The worst result for KMT is for the KMT is a sweep of these local elections which seems likely and KMT Chairperson Chu, basking in the victory, makes the mistake of trying to run himself.   That would ensure a Ko run with the result either being a DPP landslide victory with the Chu and Ko splitting the anti-DPP vote or KMT being pushed to a distant third place in a close DPP vs Ko race.  Such a scenario would be the re-run of the KMT 2019 mistake of thinking 2020 was in the bag when it clearly was not.

[jaichind]

One of the minor candidates for mayor of Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +4) passed away.  Since this is less than 30 days before the election the ROC election commission has suspended the election for now and made a call on if there should be a delay in the election.  Most likely not.

The vote for the mayor of  Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +4) moved to Dec 18th.

[jaichind]

Ettoday poll on  桃園市(Taoyuan City)

KMT           43.6 (+6.8 )
DPP            33.6 (+5.1)
DPP rebel     5.7 (-2.2)
TPP              3.8 (-6.3)



Consolidation around the KMT and DPP candidates.  KMT looks to be in solid shape

[jaichind]

TVBS poll for Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)

KMT rebel     27
DPP              22
KMT             14
NPP              13

A good part of the undecides is pan-Blue votes figuring out who to vote for between the KMT rebel and the official KMT candidate.   As we get closer to election day I suspect the KMT rebel win and run away with it.  TPP backs the KMT rebel but it is pretty clear after the KMT rebel wins he will most likely rejoin KMT.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TVBS poll for Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)

KMT rebel     27
DPP              22
KMT             14
NPP              13

A good part of the undecides is pan-Blue votes figuring out who to vote for between the KMT rebel and the official KMT candidate.   As we get closer to election day I suspect the KMT rebel win and run away with it.  TPP backs the KMT rebel but it is pretty clear after the KMT rebel wins he will most likely rejoin KMT.

Is it strange to have 25% undecided in a four-candidate race?

[jaichind]

TVBS poll for Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)

KMT rebel     27
DPP              22
KMT             14
NPP              13

A good part of the undecides is pan-Blue votes figuring out who to vote for between the KMT rebel and the official KMT candidate.   As we get closer to election day I suspect the KMT rebel win and run away with it.  TPP backs the KMT rebel but it is pretty clear after the KMT rebel wins he will most likely rejoin KMT.

Is it strange to have 25% undecided in a four-candidate race?

TVBS poll tends to not filter out those that will not vote and does not push undecided to choose.  In other words, this is a pure RV poll and not a LV poll.    Also, the fact that there is a KMT rebel in the fray that is likely to win does create confusion for long-time KMT voters torn between voting the party line and the pro-KMT candidate that is likely to win.  This is why I think in the end the KMT rebel will run away with it in the end as these voters will break heavily for him. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TVBS poll for Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)

KMT rebel     27
DPP              22
KMT             14
NPP              13

A good part of the undecides is pan-Blue votes figuring out who to vote for between the KMT rebel and the official KMT candidate.   As we get closer to election day I suspect the KMT rebel win and run away with it.  TPP backs the KMT rebel but it is pretty clear after the KMT rebel wins he will most likely rejoin KMT.

Is it strange to have 25% undecided in a four-candidate race?

TVBS poll tends to not filter out those that will not vote and does not push undecided to choose.  In other words, this is a pure RV poll and not a LV poll.    Also, the fact that there is a KMT rebel in the fray that is likely to win does create confusion for long-time KMT voters torn between voting the party line and the pro-KMT candidate that is likely to win.  This is why I think in the end the KMT rebel will run away with it in the end as these voters will break heavily for him. 

Ah. So it's basically guaranteed a pro-KMT candidate wins in any case.