2022 ROC local elections Nov 2022

[jaichind]

臺北市(Taipei City) mayor debate just took place.



Mostly a status quo type debate which is good news for both KMT and DPP as this will consolidate both party bases.

[jaichind]

TVBS poll tends to not filter out those that will not vote and does not push undecided to choose.  In other words, this is a pure RV poll and not a LV poll.    Also, the fact that there is a KMT rebel in the fray that is likely to win does create confusion for long-time KMT voters torn between voting the party line and the pro-KMT candidate that is likely to win.  This is why I think in the end the KMT rebel will run away with it in the end as these voters will break heavily for him. 

Ah. So it's basically guaranteed a pro-KMT candidate wins in any case.

Very likely KMT rebels win and with a good margin.  The DPP has a chance IF both
a) The Liu faction is determined to stop the Huang faction KMT rebel and goes on a kamikaze attack at the grassroots of the KMT rebel candidate
AND
b) The NPP vote tactically shift their vote toward the DPP candidate last minute

Either one could end up being true but both at the same time is unlikely

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TVBS poll tends to not filter out those that will not vote and does not push undecided to choose.  In other words, this is a pure RV poll and not a LV poll.    Also, the fact that there is a KMT rebel in the fray that is likely to win does create confusion for long-time KMT voters torn between voting the party line and the pro-KMT candidate that is likely to win.  This is why I think in the end the KMT rebel will run away with it in the end as these voters will break heavily for him. 

Ah. So it's basically guaranteed a pro-KMT candidate wins in any case.

Very likely KMT rebels win and with a good margin.  The DPP has a chance IF both
a) The Liu faction is determined to stop the Huang faction KMT rebel and goes on a kamikaze attack at the grassroots of the KMT rebel candidate
AND
b) The NPP vote tactically shift their vote toward the DPP candidate last minute

Either one could end up being true but both at the same time is unlikely

If KMT loses this somehow, is this actually bad for the KMT overall?

[jaichind]

TVBS poll tends to not filter out those that will not vote and does not push undecided to choose.  In other words, this is a pure RV poll and not a LV poll.    Also, the fact that there is a KMT rebel in the fray that is likely to win does create confusion for long-time KMT voters torn between voting the party line and the pro-KMT candidate that is likely to win.  This is why I think in the end the KMT rebel will run away with it in the end as these voters will break heavily for him. 

Ah. So it's basically guaranteed a pro-KMT candidate wins in any case.

Very likely KMT rebels win and with a good margin.  The DPP has a chance IF both
a) The Liu faction is determined to stop the Huang faction KMT rebel and goes on a kamikaze attack at the grassroots of the KMT rebel candidate
AND
b) The NPP vote tactically shift their vote toward the DPP candidate last minute

Either one could end up being true but both at the same time is unlikely

If KMT loses this somehow, is this actually bad for the KMT overall?

There is a long history of KMT vs KMT rebels in Maioli County (苗栗縣) given the Liu vs Huang faction rivalry.  If DPP were to win it would be a big blow but most likely would not change the alignment of the county that much.  It would be like the Dems losing OR governor race due to the split of the Dem vote (which seems likely this election cycle.)   It would not mean that much on how OR votes in Senate or Prez elections medium or long run.

[jaichind]

With 桃園市(Taoyuan City) and 臺北市(Taipei City) beginning to look out of reach for the DPP leading to a wipeout of the DPP in the North and with chances of a DPP flip in Central and South looking very dim, it seems the DPP is going all out in  Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3)  to try to get a win.

Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) is still a good target for the DPP because there seems to be a large anti-DPP majority in the North but the 3-way race in  Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) gives the DPP a chance.   The frontrunner right now is TPP's 高虹安(Ann Kao).  



The third-place KMT candidate recently raised concerns about 高虹安(Ann Kao)'s boyfriend being her government-paid assistant (she is currently a TPP PR MP) and that he is really working part-time while drawing a full-time salary and donating a good part of his salary to the TPP.  The DPP has decided to run with this scandal.  So far 高虹安(Ann Kao) is not doing a great job explaining what is going on here which gives an opening for the DPP and KMT to make this a neck-to-neck 3-way race versus a TPP lead.

The macro picture continues to be the theme I raised before that in Oriental political systems politics are transactional and very time-consuming.  This plus female hypergamy means any successful women politician is unlikely to find a husband to her liking that will accept the amount of time she will use up for her political career.  高虹安(Ann Kao) is 38 and it is clear looking at her picture that she was and most likely continues to be a very eligible bachelorette.  But she has an "assistant" boyfriend which I am almost certain she will not look up to enough to want to be her husband.  And anyone she would consider becoming her husband will not put up with her work lifestyle.  She is pretty much at the end of childbearing age so she will join all the other Oriental women politicians that will be childless.

The only exception to this rule is women who got married and had children and then got involved in politics which is usually because their husband or father is a politician.  So the rule is: if you are a woman and want to get involved in politics full-time unless your husband or father is a politician you can most likely look forward to being childless.

[jaichind]

In the 臺北市(Taipei City) mayor debate, it is interesting that KMT Chiang gave part of his opening statements in Hoklo while DPP Chen and pro-TPP Huang spoke Mandarin the entire time.   This shows that KMT Chiang is confident in his base of educated voters but needs to shore up his support with lower educated voters.  For DPP Chen it seems to opposite ergo he needs to speak Mandarin the entire time.

[jaichind]

The main message of each candidate in the 臺北市(Taipei City) mayor debate

KMT Chiang: I am here to give out free money.  Where the money comes from is not my problem.
DPP Chen: I am close to the Central government, any problems that need solving I will get the Central government to solve it for me
Pro-TPP Huang: TPP mayor Ko is doing a good job.  By induction, I will do a good job.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

.
The macro picture continues to be the theme I raised before that in Oriental political systems politics are transactional and very time-consuming.  This plus female hypergamy means any successful women politician is unlikely to find a husband to her liking that will accept the amount of time she will use up for her political career.  高虹安(Ann Kao) is 38 and it is clear looking at her picture that she was and most likely continues to be a very eligible bachelorette.  But she has an "assistant" boyfriend which I am almost certain she will not look up to enough to want to be her husband.  And anyone she would consider becoming her husband will not put up with her work lifestyle.  She is pretty much at the end of childbearing age so she will join all the other Oriental women politicians that will be childless.

You know, I really appreciate your in-depth and detailed analyses of Taiwanese politics. And then…

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

.
The macro picture continues to be the theme I raised before that in Oriental political systems politics are transactional and very time-consuming.  This plus female hypergamy means any successful women politician is unlikely to find a husband to her liking that will accept the amount of time she will use up for her political career.  高虹安(Ann Kao) is 38 and it is clear looking at her picture that she was and most likely continues to be a very eligible bachelorette.  But she has an "assistant" boyfriend which I am almost certain she will not look up to enough to want to be her husband.  And anyone she would consider becoming her husband will not put up with her work lifestyle.  She is pretty much at the end of childbearing age so she will join all the other Oriental women politicians that will be childless.

You know, I really appreciate your in-depth and detailed analyses of Taiwanese politics. And then…

It's a window into a different way of doing politics, thus helping us understand more easily what's going on. I don't know about you, but it's something I feel I'm better off with than without.
If you take issue with what he's said, take that up with 1.4 billion Chinese, 200 million Koreans and Japanese, and other people from the region.

[jaichind]

One thing interesting about DPP VP Lai's campaign stops.  He seems to only campaign for DPP candidates in non-marginal races.   They are DPP candidates which are way ahead of the way behind.  It seems Lai is pretty much doing these campaign events so the Tsai faction cannot say that he is not actively campaigning.   Lai seems to think the DPP will do poorly in competitive districts so he is distancing himself from those races so he can blame the Tsai faction post-election for these setbacks.

[jaichind]

UDN poll for 桃園市(Taoyuan City)

KMT         36
DPP          30
DPP rebel   4
TPP            4

 

[jaichind]

TVBS poll on who won the 臺北市(Taipei City) mayor debate

KMT           35
DPP            26
Pro-TPP      20


Looks alike the same as a poll for "who do you support"

[jaichind]

Something is brewing in Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) which could mean the DPP underperforms this time around despite having an incumbent running for re-election in an incumbent-friendly year that is illustrative of the problems of a dominant party.

Ever since the 1990s, the DPP has built up such a lead in Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11) that the KMT no longer has any real chance to win.  And just like in deep Blue counties that merely created factionalism within the ruling DPP.  In this case, it is mostly a battle of the ruling New Tide faction vs the non-New Tide minority factions.

The most recent conflict revolved around the independent (DPP rebel) Speaker of the City assembly 郭信良 (Guo Shin-Liang.)   郭信良 (Guo Shin-Liang) is a member of a non-New Tide faction and was Deputy Speaker of the City assembly in 2014-2018.  

DPP rebel City Council Speaker 郭信良 (Guo Shin-Liang)


In the 2018 DPP Primary for mayor, the pro-New Tide 黃偉哲(Huang Wei-Che) defeated the anti-New Tide MP and 郭信良 (Guo Shin-Liang) ally 陳亭妃 (Chen Ting-Fei) in a bitter primary.

DPP mayor 黃偉哲(Huang Wei-Che)

DPP MP 陳亭妃 (Chen Ting-Fei)



After the DPP won the 2018 mayor race and the pan-Greens won a majority in the City assembly the New Tide faction decided to strike back at 郭信良 (Guo Shin-Liang) by dropping him as the Deputy Speaker and went with an all-New Tide slate for Speak and Deputy Speaker.  In anger 郭信良 (Guo Shin-Liang) and his faction of DPP MLAs bolted from the DPP and with the support of the 謝龍介(Hsieh Long-Jie) led  KMT and other Pan Blue MLAs led to beat the DPP in the vote for Speaker and Deputy Speaker.  DPP MP 陳亭妃 (Chen Ting-Fei)'s own sister was one of the DPP MLAs that bolted.

KMT MLA and new candidate for mayor 謝龍介(Hsieh Long-Jie)


In 2020 in order to get ready for the 2022 elections the DPP rebels but not including 郭信良 (Guo Shin-Liang) were let back into the DPP.   郭信良 (Guo Shin-Liang) as the speaker took a neutral position between the Pan-Greens and Pan-Blues.  But tensions remain between the New Tide majority and non-New Tide minority within the DPP.  In early October when the Pan-Blue independent Deputy Speaker pass away the DPP caucus could not agree on a candidate and all abstained allowing a KMT Deputy Speaker to be elected


In the 2022 mayor race, KMT City assembly leader 謝龍介(Hsieh Long-Jie) is taking on DPP incumbent 黃偉哲(Huang Wei-Che).  

In theory, given his DPP background 郭信良 (Guo Shin-Liang) in theory is backing DPPs 黃偉哲(Huang Wei-Che) but he also knows that if a large Pan-Green majority is elected in the City Assembly the DPP New Tide faction will install their own candidate for City Assembly Speaker.  郭信良 (Guo Shin-Liang)'s first move is to attend a campaign event for KMT 謝龍介(Hsieh Long-Jie) where he "endorsed " 謝龍介(Hsieh Long-Jie) as payback for 謝龍介(Hsieh Long-Jie) rallying the KMT MLA around his candidacy for Speaker back in 2018.  To make up for it 郭信良 (Guo Shin-Liang) and ally DPP MP 陳亭妃 (Chen Ting-Fei) is going to organize a rally to support 黃偉哲(Huang Wei-Che).  But it seems the 黃偉哲(Huang Wei-Che) camp is miffed at this turn of events and is refusing to attend the rally.  It is clear that the DPP New Tide and non-New Tide factions might be maneuvering to cut the other faction's MLA count down to size.  All these DPP internal battles for sure will hurt the victory margin of 黃偉哲(Huang Wei-Che).

[jaichind]

Latest "scandal" in 臺北市(Taipei City).  It seems to be two separate scandals.

It seems a tabloid took a bunch of pictures (and film) a couple of weeks ago of DPP Chen walking out of a restaurant drunk with his arm around and holding hands with a former subordinate (Chen used to be Health Minister) and the women in question is Deputy head of a government hospital.   It seems that the  tabloid was pressured not to run the story and someone on the inside was so angry that he leaked the pictures and film to a KMT MLA who released the pictures.

Upper Left has Chen holding the hands of the women
Bottom right has Chen with his hands around her (even though the view of his face is blocked)
 

The Chen defense is sort of Biden-like.  I am very warm when socializing friends so this is normal for me and her husband was right next to us so nothing was going long.

I think it is mostly a nothing burger but the fact the  tabloid being pressured not to run the story is the real scandal.

The KMT MLA claims that she plans to release the film as well soon.

[jaichind]

TVBS poll for Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)

KMT       43  (incumbent)
DPP        32
TPP          3

Despite the KMT incumbent being on trial for corruption, she is well ahead.  Her narrative that this is a DPP trumped-up charge seems to be working.

[jaichind]

UDN poll for  Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11)

Mostly matches the TVBS poll

KMT rebel      25
DPP              20
NPP              10
KMT               9





Breakdown by demographic patterns shows the largest undecided are older women independent (in this county that would be light blue voters) which would mean the KMT rebel and KMT candidates will gain the most when this bloc of voters actually vote.  From a tactical point of view this fact will help the KMT rebel the most

[jaichind]

Current projections - More consolidation toward frontrunners in fractured races.

Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) (KMT flip from TPP)
KMT         43% (Grandson and Great Grandson of Chiang the Younger and Chiang the Elder)
DPP         31%
pro-TPP    23%    


New Taipei City (新北市)  (PVI Blue +1)
KMT         61%  (incumbent) (KMT superstar, possible future KMT Prez or VP candidate)
DPP          39%  (former incumbent of Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +1))


Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) (KMT flip from DPP)
KMT         48%
DPP         39%
DPP rebel   7%
TPP           6%


Taichung City(臺中市)  (PVI Blue +1)
KMT         61% (incumbent) (KMT superstar, possible future KMT VP candidate)
DPP          38.5%


Tainan City (臺南市) (PVI Green +11)
DPP          60% (incumbent) (in theory future DPP star, sister is pro-PRC which holds him back)
KMT          33%
Pan-Blue     5.5%
TSU rebel    1%


Kaoshiung City (高雄市) (PVI Green +6)
DPP         61% (incumbent)
KMT         38%
 
 
Keelung City (基隆市) (PVI Blue +7) (KMT flip from DPP)
KMT           49.5%
DPP            44%
NPP              4%
KMT rebel     2%


Yilan County(宜蘭縣)  (PVI Green +6)
KMT           50% (incumbent) (hit by a scandal which she claims is trumped up by DPP)
DPP            41%
TPP              8%


Hsinchu County (新竹縣) (PVI Blue +12)
KMT           63% (incumbent)
DPP            36%


Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) (TPP flip from DPP !!!)
TPP             40%
DPP             35%
KMT            24%

 
Maioli County (苗栗縣) (PVI Blue +11) (KMT rebel flip from KMT !!!)
KMT rebel     40%
DPP              33%
KMT             18%
NPP               8%


Changhua County(彰化縣) (PVI Even)
KMT             56.5% (incumbent)
DPP              43%


Nanto County(南投縣) (PVI Blue +5)
KMT             63%
DPP              38.5%


Yunlin County(雲林縣) (PVI Green +6)
KMT              55% (incumbent)
DPP              44%
 

Jaiyi County(嘉義縣) (PVI Green +8)
DPP              61% (incumbent)
KMT              39%
 

Jiayi City(嘉義市) (PVI Green +4)  (election delayed due to death of a minor candidate)
KMT             54% (incumbent)
DPP             43%
 

Pingdong County(屏東縣) (Green +6)
DPP             51%
KMT             43%
NPP               6%


Taidong County(臺東縣)  (PVI Blue +18)
KMT            64%  (incumbent)
DPP             35%
 

Hualian County(花蓮縣) (PVI Blue +20)
KMT            61%  (incumbent)
DPP             38%  (tribal background means a bigger DPP wipeout is avoided)


Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) (chaotic 3-way battle)
KMT             39%  (incumbent)
DPP              37%  (former incumbent)
KMT rebel     24%
 

Overall Pan-Blue (KMT TPP KMT rebels) vs Pan Green (DPP NPP DPP rebels) comes to 54.89% vs 44.61% which most likely overestimates Pan-Blues a bit since some TPP voters are light Green.

[jaichind]

Conflicting polls out of Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4)

Gallup has

KMT Chiang       34.25 (+4.58)
DPP Chen          22.79 (+0.66)
pro-TPP Huang   15.60 (-1.82)


UDN has the second and third places swapped

KMT Chiang         36
Pro-TPP Huang     27
DPP                    20




Clearly Chiang prefers the first poll since under the second poll there still might be a chance of a last-minute DPP collapse and DPP-> pro-TPP tactical vote to defeat KMT

[jaichind]

Final TVBS poll for Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4)

KMT Chiang      36 (+1)
DPP Chen         25 (-1)
Pro-TPP Huang  24(+4)

Looks like Chiang got this.

If Chiang is elected he will be the highest ranking person from the Chiang clan since his grandfather Chiang the Younger passed away as ROC Prez in 1988.  In theory Chiang's father was KMT General Secretary in the late 1990s but that is a party and not government position.

I can even see Chiang running for ROC Prez in 2032.  Will be funny and ironic if he then leads ROC in reunification talks with CCP in the 2030s as a Chiang clan member. 

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

So the map is probably going to look something like this:



I'm assuming Kinmen and Matsu are going to vote KMT, since they're part of Fujian and don't identify with Taiwan.

[jaichind]

So the map is probably going to look something like this:

I'm assuming Kinmen and Matsu are going to vote KMT, since they're part of Fujian and don't identify with Taiwan.

The only real unknowns are in Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) where recent scandals for the TPP candidate might allow DPP to win in a close 3-way race and in Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) where a close 3-way race between KMT incumbent DPP ex-incumbent and KMT rebel could go DPP.  CW is that in Penghu County(澎湖縣) (PVI Blue +4) the DPP might have a slight edge but I am going with KMT on the premise that this election will be a low turnout and favor all incumbents.

In 金門縣(Kinmen County) the DPP is not running a candidate so the race is between KMT and a KMT rebel.  In 連江縣(Lianjiang County) the DPP is running a candidate but the KMT nominated two and the battle is between the 2 KMT candidates with the DPP candidate most likely in the teens in turn of vote share.

[jaichind]

Going into the last week it seems the DPP has mostly given up on winning Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4) and instead is working to make sure the DPP Chen comes in second by consolidating the core DPP vote of around 30%.  There is still some DPP effort in Taoyuan City (桃園市) (PVI Blue +4) that they think is still winnable but where  the DPP is betting the farm is in Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3)  where they are going all out to attack the TPP frontrunner.  Of course the KMT will benefit more from this but the DPP is hoping that DPP wins in a narrow 3 way race here.

[jaichind]

A big development in  Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3).  The KMT city assembly deputy speaker 余邦彥 (Yu Bang-Yen) along with 75 out of 122 bloc presidents (most of them pro-KMT) came out in favor of the TPP candidate over the KMT candidate.  He gave the reason that the DPP has to be stopped at all costs and that the TPP candidate has a better chance of winning than the KMT candidate.

Given the history of 余邦彥 (Yu Bang-Yen), this move seems very opportunistic.  余邦彥 (Yu Bang-Yen) was elected in 2010 and 2014 on the KMT ticket into the city assembly.  After the DPP captured the mayor position in 2014, he then joined the KMT splinter front 新民意問政聯盟(New Public Opinion Political Coalition) which was aligned with the DPP.  After he was re-elected in 2018 as a member of this KMT splinter front he defected back to the KMT along with this entire splinter front that merged back into the KMT.  As part of that merger, he was elected deputy speaker of the city assembly.  If stopping the DPP was so important why was he a part of a pro-DPP outfit in the 2014 to 2018 period?  This move seems more about

a) He wants to be on the winning side
b) if the TPP candidate does win this might help him keep his deputy speaker spot post-election or even try to become the speaker himself even if he runs afoul of the KMT high command right now.  The idea here is that in 2024 there might be a KMT-TPP united front and his connections wih the TPP could help his political career.

[jaichind]

Co-founder and former leader of NPP 黃國昌(Huang Kuo-chang) endorsed pro-TPP Huang Taipei City (臺北市) (PVI Blue +4).  NPP had and continues to have an internal battle over the relative importance of anti-DPP position vs Pan-Green solidarity.  黃國昌(Huang Kuo-chang) has always been in the anti-DPP position.  This move will split the NPP and hurt NPP's chances in the city assembly election. This move could also move some marginal Deep Green youth vote from DPP to pro-TPP but the impact will not be that large.

[jaichind]

Various decisions made by the ROC election commission on voting this year

1) Those with COVID-19 cannot vote
2) COVID-19 restrictions on PRC-ROC transit continue to be in place despite the fact that PRC is supportive of opening up completely and COVID-19 has pretty much burned through ROC in the summer making such restrictions really unnecessary from ROC's point of view.  This is relevant because 1.5 million ROC voters (voting with their feet) work and live in Mainland China and almost all of them will not be able to come back to vote (although historically they usually show up for Prez elections and not midterms)
3) No exceptions on 300K eligible voters that reside aboard on residency requirements to vote.  Namely, such voters must have lived on ROC for 4 months over a 2 year period which is pretty much impossible due to COVID-19 since 2020.  Since Mainland China is part of the ROC as per the ROC Constitution the rules are different for them.  Many voters living abroad returned to vote only to discover they cannot until 4 months later when the election is already over.
4) Military personnel cannot vote as opposed to previous elections
5) Government-funded extra bus and transit services to transport people from where they work to their home county are not available this year.

The ROC Election Commission claims this is all based on guidance from the Department of Health due to COVID-19.  It is clear what is really going on is the DPP does not want pro-PRC voters to vote (number 2) from above) and is concerned that their support with youth voters is soft (numbers 4) and 5).)

I wonder where Stacey Abrams and the Georgia Democrats are?  They should be here yelling about voter impression and insisting on a boycott of ROC.