Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[UWS]

Kyiv drones destroyed 2 thirds of Russia’s tanks
https://uazmi.com/news/post/59b775c2fb9a565ac4ceb96950ba6171

[PSOL]

Don’t be like the EZLN or the EPR. There’s a reason why they are irrelevant jokes in Mexico now and have been decimated by the state-backed gangs. Striking Russia where it hurts is how you win the war.

Again, I stand by my previous stances that Joe Biden’s aiding and abetting of genocide in Gaza has made the coming genocide in Ukraine much more likely. He’s falling into the Yemeni trap the GCC fell into by focusing time and effort into Yemeni genocide instead of their sectarian jihad in Syria.

[Storr]

Scott Perry in 1940: "You're probably not gonna really save Great Britain, let's face it"

"VARNEY: Are you proposed to have Putin win in Ukraine because of the border?

GOP REP. SCOTT PERRY: You're probably not gonna really save Ukraine, let's face it"

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1777704919337751014

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/world/how-american-drones-failed-to-turn-the-tide-in-ukraine-b0ebbac3

"How American Drones Failed to Turn the Tide in Ukraine"

Drones from American startups have been deemed glitchy and expensive, prompting Ukraine to turn to alternatives from China

"The general reputation for every class of U.S. drone in Ukraine is that they don't work as well as other systems," Skydio Chief Executive Adam Bry said, calling his own drone "not a very successful platform on the front lines."

For the PRC it is "the enemy of my friend is a customer"

[jaichind]

It occurred to me that this entire conflict is sort of a Russian vaccine lab for NATO weapons.

NATO would send different NATO weapons to Ukraine in small quantities with one type at a time.  Each time they are used by not well-trained Ukranians so they are generally less effective than they could be especially in small quantities.  This allows the Russians to deal with these weapons and learn about their capabilities one at a time without dealing with the full downside of these weapons.  This makes the Russians that much more prepared to deal with these weapons in the future in the hands of well well-trained NATO military. 

It seems the F-16 later this year which will show up in small quantities with manned by a UAF that has limited training will be the next to show up as a NATO weapons vaccine in the Russian vaccine lab.

[Open Source Intelligence]

It occurred to me that this entire conflict is sort of a Russian vaccine lab for NATO weapons.

NATO would send different NATO weapons to Ukraine in small quantities with one type at a time.  Each time they are used by not well-trained Ukranians so they are generally less effective than they could be especially in small quantities.  This allows the Russians to deal with these weapons and learn about their capabilities one at a time without dealing with the full downside of these weapons.  This makes the Russians that much more prepared to deal with these weapons in the future in the hands of well well-trained NATO military.  

It seems the F-16 later this year which will show up in small quantities with manned by a UAF that has limited training will be the next to show up as a NATO weapons vaccine in the Russian vaccine lab.

The reverse is true too. The NATO militaries damn well should be using where these arms succeed/fail in Ukraine to implement improvements for future designs.

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://www.wsj.com/world/how-american-drones-failed-to-turn-the-tide-in-ukraine-b0ebbac3

"How American Drones Failed to Turn the Tide in Ukraine"

Drones from American startups have been deemed glitchy and expensive, prompting Ukraine to turn to alternatives from China

"The general reputation for every class of U.S. drone in Ukraine is that they don't work as well as other systems," Skydio Chief Executive Adam Bry said, calling his own drone "not a very successful platform on the front lines."

For the PRC it is "the enemy of my friend is a customer"

Classic M16 vs. AK-47 scenario. (If you want an entirely American domestic version: CH-46 vs. V-22.) "Cheap, plentiful, and it works" is unfortunately a large weakness in our current defense capability. It's just not how war has progressed in the post-Cold War that those were not considered the main assets to have. Our philosophy was more shock and awe-focused of humble them with our technological superiority which aims for higher cost and less quantity.

[Woody]

Strelkov comeback tour? His lawyers plan to ask the court for him to be sent to the front in Ukraine (ideally Donetsk), instead of serving time in prison.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/04/10/jailed-russian-nationalist-girkin-seeking-to-fight-in-eastern-ukraine-despite-ban-a84802

The wife of jailed Russian nationalist and ex-rebel commander Igor Girkin said Wednesday that her husband is seeking to clear his criminal record and serve at the front line in eastern Ukraine.

His wife Miroslava Reginskaya said a military unit in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic had approved her husband’s candidacy to serve as a platoon commander in January. She did not specify which military unit agreed to allow him to join its ranks.

[Storr]

Confirmation on reporting that claimed the Biden administration wanted Ukraine to stop targeting Russian refineries:

"Asked why the Biden admin is discouraging Ukraine from striking Russian energy infrastructure, Secretary Austin acknowledges that admin has concerns about how it will affect global energy markets.

"Certainly, those attacks could have a knock on effect, in terms of the global energy situation," Austin says. "But quite frankly, I think Ukraine is better served and going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.""

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1777708594395283812

Thanks to the GOP causing us to abandon Ukraine, the Biden Administration has no legs to stand on when it comes to restricting Ukraine on this

The Biden Administration trying to come up with a coherent message on what Ukraine should be allowed to attack challenge: impossible

"Assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs Celeste Wallander gave a different answer to this question today, telling HASC that "the issue on attacking critical infrastructure is when those are civilian targets, we have concerns because Ukraine holds itself to the highest standards of observing the laws of armed conflict and that's one of the elements of being a European democracy.""

https://x.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1778070574532530517

Quote tweet of the tweet above: "This quote is quite something coming from a US official, going against the US position on legal targets, war supporting and war sustaining industries.

And yes, the US position is that powerplants "usually qualify as military objectives" too.

From the DoD Law of War Manual."

https://x.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1778089408681418942

[jaichind]

It occurred to me that this entire conflict is sort of a Russian vaccine lab for NATO weapons.

NATO would send different NATO weapons to Ukraine in small quantities with one type at a time.  Each time they are used by not well-trained Ukranians so they are generally less effective than they could be especially in small quantities.  This allows the Russians to deal with these weapons and learn about their capabilities one at a time without dealing with the full downside of these weapons.  This makes the Russians that much more prepared to deal with these weapons in the future in the hands of well well-trained NATO military.  

It seems the F-16 later this year which will show up in small quantities with manned by a UAF that has limited training will be the next to show up as a NATO weapons vaccine in the Russian vaccine lab.

The reverse is true too. The NATO militaries damn well should be using where these arms succeed/fail in Ukraine to implement improvements for future designs.

Not as much.  Unless NATO officers are at the front lines watching these weapons in action their level of learning, which I agree is significant, will be less than what the Russian officers will learn.

[jaichind]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/with-recruits-dwindling-ukraine-urged-to-mobilise-women-6bz929qvq

"With recruits dwindling, Ukraine is urged to mobilise women"

Chief military adviser for gender issues says adopting Israel-style female conscription policy is necessary to tackle recruitment shortage

[Storr]

Minister of Foreign Affairs for Lithuania Gabrielius Landsbergis:

"In WWII the Allies bombed Nazi Germany's oil depots as a high priority military target. That's the tweet."


https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1778110227599982992

Before someone says, like some of Russian accounts commenting on this tweet, "but, what side was Lithuania on in WWII?": Lithuania was neutral until the Soviet Union invaded and annexed it in 1940. Then it was invaded and occupied by Nazi Germany in 1941. Finally Lithuania was reoccupied by the Soviet Union in 1944. I'm not sure how being invaded and occupied by Nazi Germany equals being on Hitler's side, but it's not like facts have prevented Russians from calling people fascists before.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1778157487637602730?s=12
Monke wave ends with typical monke wave results

[jaichind]

https://www.barrons.com/news/kyiv-scraps-demobilisation-clause-in-draft-law-causing-anger-bc3aadbc

"Kyiv Scraps Demobilisation Clause In Draft Law, Causing Anger"

Part of Ukraine's plan to mobilize is to allow some of those serving to be demobilized.  It seems that the plan is out the window mostly due to pressure from Syrsky not to do this.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-09/us-slams-strikes-on-russia-oil-refineries-as-risk-to-oil-markets?embedded-checkout=true

"US Slams Strikes on Russia Oil Refineries as Risk to Oil Markets"

Austin advised Ukraine to attack other targets instead of Russian refineries

“These attacks (on Russian refineries - ed.) could have consequences for the global energy situation. It is more profitable for Ukraine to attack tactical and operational targets that can directly affect the current fight,” said US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
made during a meeting of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Sorry.  The real problem is that USA CPI is surging upward again and Biden is worried about his re-election chances if there is a spike in gas prices this Summer.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.barrons.com/news/kyiv-scraps-demobilisation-clause-in-draft-law-causing-anger-bc3aadbc

"Kyiv Scraps Demobilisation Clause In Draft Law, Causing Anger"

Part of Ukraine's plan to mobilize is to allow some of those serving to be demobilized.  It seems that the plan is out the window mostly due to pressure from Syrsky not to do this.

This doesn't speak to Ukraine having much operational flexibility in regards to their manpower.

[Hindsight was 2020]

UK firms set to manufacture weapons inside Ukraine to boost struggle against Russia

UK manufacturers are one step closer to producing their weapons in Ukraine, following the signing of an agreement between the two countries.

The UK-Ukraine deal came during Britain's largest trade mission to Ukraine, which saw 29 UK businesses travel to the country to find opportunities for co-operation in aid of the struggle against Russia……
Defence Procurement Minister James Cartlidge said: "This is the latest demonstration of the UK's unwavering commitment to Ukraine, as they continue to fight back against Putin's illegal invasion. This is now a war of industrial production and so it is key that we unleash the capability, capacity, ingenuity, and innovation of our respective industrial bases.

Sweet!
https://www.forces.net/ukraine/uk-firms-set-manufacture-weapons-inside-ukraine-boost-struggle-against-russia

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

UK firms set to manufacture weapons inside Ukraine to boost struggle against Russia

UK manufacturers are one step closer to producing their weapons in Ukraine, following the signing of an agreement between the two countries.

The UK-Ukraine deal came during Britain's largest trade mission to Ukraine, which saw 29 UK businesses travel to the country to find opportunities for co-operation in aid of the struggle against Russia……
Defence Procurement Minister James Cartlidge said: "This is the latest demonstration of the UK's unwavering commitment to Ukraine, as they continue to fight back against Putin's illegal invasion. This is now a war of industrial production and so it is key that we unleash the capability, capacity, ingenuity, and innovation of our respective industrial bases.

Sweet!
https://www.forces.net/ukraine/uk-firms-set-manufacture-weapons-inside-ukraine-boost-struggle-against-russia

This kind of stuff honestly cements the UK's status as the most pro-Ukraine Western nation.

[Hindsight was 2020]

UK firms set to manufacture weapons inside Ukraine to boost struggle against Russia

UK manufacturers are one step closer to producing their weapons in Ukraine, following the signing of an agreement between the two countries.

The UK-Ukraine deal came during Britain's largest trade mission to Ukraine, which saw 29 UK businesses travel to the country to find opportunities for co-operation in aid of the struggle against Russia……
Defence Procurement Minister James Cartlidge said: "This is the latest demonstration of the UK's unwavering commitment to Ukraine, as they continue to fight back against Putin's illegal invasion. This is now a war of industrial production and so it is key that we unleash the capability, capacity, ingenuity, and innovation of our respective industrial bases.

Sweet!
https://www.forces.net/ukraine/uk-firms-set-manufacture-weapons-inside-ukraine-boost-struggle-against-russia

This kind of stuff honestly cements the UK's status as the most pro-Ukraine Western nation.

Until the French army arrive….

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

UK firms set to manufacture weapons inside Ukraine to boost struggle against Russia

UK manufacturers are one step closer to producing their weapons in Ukraine, following the signing of an agreement between the two countries.

The UK-Ukraine deal came during Britain's largest trade mission to Ukraine, which saw 29 UK businesses travel to the country to find opportunities for co-operation in aid of the struggle against Russia……
Defence Procurement Minister James Cartlidge said: "This is the latest demonstration of the UK's unwavering commitment to Ukraine, as they continue to fight back against Putin's illegal invasion. This is now a war of industrial production and so it is key that we unleash the capability, capacity, ingenuity, and innovation of our respective industrial bases.

Sweet!
https://www.forces.net/ukraine/uk-firms-set-manufacture-weapons-inside-ukraine-boost-struggle-against-russia

This kind of stuff honestly cements the UK's status as the most pro-Ukraine Western nation.

Until the French army arrive….

We shall see indirectly how much Russia wants Africa by how much France helps Ukraine.

[PSOL]

Given that the Iranian and North Koreans are basically helping for free in propping up the supplies of the Russian army and in a lot of cases being labor and advising auxiliaries and that this is turning the tides of the war, Russia basically has a blank cheque in wasting as much equipment on the field. They can do this because Xi Jinping has basically given up in trying to exert pressure over Russia and are helping bankroll the Russian economy for what amounts to peanuts.

And for what exactly? Iran got repaid through years of blood and tears in the Middle East for the Russians to swoop in and basically recognize Arabian sovereignty over the Persian gulf. Armenia was repaid by its participation and close relationship in the dead CSTO by the Russians all but abandoning them. If the former player got kicked to the curb because Putin wanted to ensure good relations for its oligarchy to play in Dubai, what is to say Russia won’t abandon the helping trio for what amounts to Putin plunging deep into bull•••• to find a corn kernel. Maybe Trump goes, but MAGA still remains and Putin has shown repeatedly that he prefers a Russia surrounded by likeminded boors in America and the white world like Steven Seagal and he isn’t afraid to throw the political capital he built up among allies to go be with a better crowd, even if that means throwing his vassals abroad under the bus and betraying his allies.

He has the personal views of Steve Bannon and the personality of Trump. The latter doesn’t care about people he views as beneath him and is willing to break from the existing international system and take on the world with fellows like his dictator club, and the former is an ardent fascist who obsesses about historical reactionary angst and engage in nonsense like helping some Chinese asset to overthrow the PRC in the Himalayas over butthurt Mao did by throwing the chains off the Chinese. What exactly is stopping Putin from rediscovering Russian irredentism over East Asia and anti-communist agendas once he is done with Ukraine. Given historical context, when Hitler was done in the western front, going after the nonwhite communist party member in charge in Moscow was the next logical step.

Russia’s main border is with east Asia after all, and by getting so much help for what amounts to absolutely nothing, what’s to say he won’t hang his sponsors once all of this is over? What’s to say history won’t repeat itself and the American-Russo alliance doesn’t fulfill the botched dream of ending the yellow peril with so much money and resources to mop up the rest of the world.

[jaichind]

Ukraine Says Kyiv Region’s Largest Power Plant Destroyed

(Bloomberg) -- The largest power plant in the region surrounding the Ukrainian capital was destroyed in a Russian missile attack. 
Six missiles hit the Trypilska plant south of Kyiv Thursday morning, according to a person familiar familiar with the strike. The attack set the facility owned by state-run electricity and heat producer Centrenergo ablaze, the person said on condition of anonymity. 
Over the past month, Russia intensified strikes on Ukraine’s power infrastructure as Kyiv struggles with a shortage of ammunition and manpower. A large-scale overnight missile and drone attack targeted power infrastructure and underground gas storage in five regions across Ukraine.

[jaichind]

Ukraine Rada passes the mobilization law after stripping out the provisions for demobilization after 36 months of service.

[Woody]

Ukraine Rada passes the mobilization law after stripping out the provisions for demobilization after 36 months of service.

They want to keep their experienced soldiers? I did not expect them to cut out demobilization. This was one of the reasons people kept pushing for mobilization to begin with. I imagine this would anger some of the guys who are currently fighting, and has done so for the last 2 years. Same for their relatives.

[jaichind]

NYP - Trump camp says Trump will not visit Ukraine if invited by Zelensky