Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

It does seem that Putin's manpower issues have declined significantly...

From ISW

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-5-2024

The recently intensified tempo of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine will likely result in increased manpower and materiel losses, but the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be successfully mitigating these losses.

ISW seems to admit whatever losses the Russians are suffering they can be replaced.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It does seem that Putin's manpower issues have declined significantly...

From ISW

https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-5-2024

The recently intensified tempo of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine will likely result in increased manpower and materiel losses, but the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) appears to be successfully mitigating these losses.

ISW seems to admit whatever losses the Russians are suffering they can be replaced.

Yeah, that was on my mind.
Ukraine needs more recruitment to keep up imo.
Whether it can is another issue completely.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries continue to effect the Russian economy:

"Diesel loadings from #Russia's three major ports on Black and Baltic Seas, including some volumes originating in Belarus, are set to fall to ~2.29m tons in April. That equates to just over 569k b/d, down 21% vs actual daily exports from same ports in March"

https://twitter.com/olyatanas/status/1775127939002081637?s=20

From Bloomberg:

Russia Oil Refining Recovers in Early April as Repairs Gain Pace

Russia’s refineries processed more crude in the first days of April as some of the nation’s major plants restored operations halted by Ukrainian drone attacks.

The impact of the drone strikes on Russian crude processing is diminishing because most of the affected facilities have been able to repair damaged equipment, partly or completely restoring capacity. Some other plants have also increased their throughput to compensate for the damaged facilities, ensuring domestic fuel demand is met.

It would be wise for Ukraine to play a cat-and-mouse game and force them to defend their entire gas export and exploitation apparatus. They're getting more adept at defending refineries. Let them try to defend other sections of it... If and when the time comes anyhow.

[Virginiá]

It would be wise for Ukraine to play a cat-and-mouse game and force them to defend their entire gas export and exploitation apparatus. They're getting more adept at defending refineries. Let them try to defend other sections of it... If and when the time comes anyhow.

Not too surprising if true. These are huge facilities and a couple drones hitting the right spots can cause a lot of disruption, but if you want to take the entire plant offline for an extended period, that is something you would want to use a large number of missiles or airstrikes for.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It would be wise for Ukraine to play a cat-and-mouse game and force them to defend their entire gas export and exploitation apparatus. They're getting more adept at defending refineries. Let them try to defend other sections of it... If and when the time comes anyhow.

Not too surprising if true. These are huge facilities and a couple drones hitting the right spots can cause a lot of disruption, but if you want to take the entire plant offline for an extended period, that is something you would want to use a large number of missiles or airstrikes for.

The Ukrainian strategy really amounts to Kiev putting its money where its mouth is.
However Ukraine's capabilities to take things where it needs to flat-out turn the tide? More uncertain at best.
Kissinger did say that you need to deal with the world as it is, not the world as it should be.

[ProudModerate2]

Firefighter breaks down as he learns his father was killed in Russian strike.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Firefighter breaks down as he learns his father was killed in Russian strike.

Good reminder that Woody and jaichind are amoral monsters for supporting this 😡

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Firefighter breaks down as he learns his father was killed in Russian strike.

Good reminder that Woody and jaichind are amoral monsters for supporting this 😡

It is sickening to see conservatives outright support Putin. I lean against Ukraine aid, but we need to be clear that Putin is an awful person and should not be celebrated in any shape, way, or form.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Firefighter breaks down as he learns his father was killed in Russian strike.

Good reminder that Woody and jaichind are amoral monsters for supporting this 😡

It is sickening to see conservatives outright support Putin. I lean against Ukraine aid, but we need to be clear that Putin is an awful person and should not be celebrated in any shape, way, or form.

“I hate Putin and don’t support him but I’m against doing the most obvious thing to oppose him” 10/10 logic

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-may-run-out-air-defence-missiles-if-russia-keeps-up-bombardment-2024-04-06/

"Ukraine's Zelenskiy warns of dwindling air defence missiles"

He singled out in particular the need for Patriot air defence systems and said Ukraine needed 25 of them.

Just to be clear.  The USA has around 50 batteries.  So what Zelensky wants is half the Patriot systems that the USA has.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that Russians captured Bogdanovka which is Northeast of Chasov Yar

[PSOL]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-may-run-out-air-defence-missiles-if-russia-keeps-up-bombardment-2024-04-06/

"Ukraine's Zelenskiy warns of dwindling air defence missiles"

He singled out in particular the need for Patriot air defence systems and said Ukraine needed 25 of them.

Just to be clear.  The USA has around 50 batteries.  So what Zelensky wants is half the Patriot systems that the USA has.

Honestly I’m ok with that. We aren’t putting it to good use here it might as well go to someone who needs it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-may-run-out-air-defence-missiles-if-russia-keeps-up-bombardment-2024-04-06/

"Ukraine's Zelenskiy warns of dwindling air defence missiles"

He singled out in particular the need for Patriot air defence systems and said Ukraine needed 25 of them.

Just to be clear.  The USA has around 50 batteries.  So what Zelensky wants is half the Patriot systems that the USA has.

Honestly I’m ok with that. We aren’t putting it to good use here it might as well go to someone who needs it.

It could be a good decision.
It would have to be deliberated about first.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Also Zelensky request isn’t unreasonable considering a) Ukraine’s size and b) this is not immediate but going to be a 5+ year program

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also Zelensky request isn’t unreasonable considering a) Ukraine’s size and b) this is not immediate but going to be a 5+ year program

It would be good for our military industrial complex which keeps millions employed. So that's a point in its favor.
A king must try to protect his vassals and if we want Ukrainian loyalty we should consider showing Ukraine concrete signs we will help them protect themselves. Otherwise we don't have the moral right to demand it. Loyalty is earned.

[ProudModerate2]

Republican lawmaker says Russian propaganda has 'infected a good chunk' of GOP base.

House Foreign Affairs Chairman Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) made comments during an interview with Puck, warning that Russian propaganda has "infected" a portion of the GOP base. House Intelligence Chairman Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH) joins CNN's Jake Tapper to discuss.

[jaichind]

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-rnc-chair-whatley-says-ukraine-us-adversary-republicans-1887731

"Trump's RNC Chair Includes Ukraine in List of US Adversaries"

Michael Whatley, Donald Trump's hand-picked Republican National Committee (RNC) chair, lumped in Ukraine with China and Iran when listing the United States' "aggressive" adversaries on Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures.

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/18882abd-6277-4aae-bc43-f3e5fa786445

"Russia changes tack on targeting Ukraine’s energy plants"

Last year Russia attacked energy transmission systems which I suspect had the goal of slowly destroying the Ukraine's anti-air systems.  This year the goal seems to be to isolate Ukraine's electric grid in the East from the rest of Ukraine so reduce Ukraine's ability to move things like troops in and out of Eastern Ukraine via rail

The good news for Ukraine is that there are a lot of nuclear power plants that Russia will not attack.

One main lesson from this war is: If you might be involved in a war and your energy system might be attacked the best thing to do is to build all nuclear power plants for your source of energy.

[UWS]

The ISW reports that following Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries Russia is looking at Kazakhstan in case of oil shortages. Looks like Russians are afraid of suffering such potential

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[UWS]

Also, Ukrainians have counterattacked and retook some of lost positions in the Avdiivka area

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[jaichind]

The ISW reports that following Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries Russia is looking at Kazakhstan in case of oil shortages. Looks like Russians are afraid of suffering such potential

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

In the aggregate, Russia 2024 Q1 energy revenues are significantly larger than 2023 Q1 which along with surging non-energy revenue is helping fund the surge in war spending


I recall last year Russia restricted the export of diesel which I assume was to help accumulate a diesel reserve.  If oil refineries output are down significantly Russia can always reimpose such diesel export bans.  I see no such bans so I have the assume the impact is fairly limited.

[jaichind]

Pro-Russian sources say that the Russians have captured Pervomaisky which is to the Southwest of Avdivka

[Hindsight was 2020]

Also, Ukrainians have counterattacked and retook some of lost positions in the Avdiivka area

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Based

[Storr]

Confirmation on reporting that claimed the Biden administration wanted Ukraine to stop targeting Russian refineries:

"Asked why the Biden admin is discouraging Ukraine from striking Russian energy infrastructure, Secretary Austin acknowledges that admin has concerns about how it will affect global energy markets.

"Certainly, those attacks could have a knock on effect, in terms of the global energy situation," Austin says. "But quite frankly, I think Ukraine is better served and going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.""

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1777708594395283812

[Hindsight was 2020]

Confirmation on reporting that claimed the Biden administration wanted Ukraine to stop targeting Russian refineries:

"Asked why the Biden admin is discouraging Ukraine from striking Russian energy infrastructure, Secretary Austin acknowledges that admin has concerns about how it will affect global energy markets.

"Certainly, those attacks could have a knock on effect, in terms of the global energy situation," Austin says. "But quite frankly, I think Ukraine is better served and going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.""

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1777708594395283812

Thanks to the GOP causing us to abandon Ukraine, the Biden Administration has no legs to stand on when it comes to restricting Ukraine on this