Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ft.com/content/7ef39cca-262d-4c52-8b59-1ac008ca7f56

"EU readies €20bn plan B to fund Ukraine"

This scheme would involve participating member states issuing guarantees to the EU budget, enabling the European Commission to borrow up to €20bn on capital markets for Kyiv next year, people briefed on the talks said. The precise terms are still under discussion and the final amount would be set according to Ukraine’s needs, they added.

This is the least bad plan. Much better than braindead ideas about trifling with property rights like this.

Enough about this twaddle regarding so-called property rights. If you deal drugs, in addition to potentially facing prison time and other sanctions you can have your finances confiscated. Ditto if you embezzle or do money laundering. Surely leading a war crime infested invasion of a liberal democracy for No Greater reason than "me want, me take!" Ranks up with such illegality

Carl Schmidt did say "Sovereign is he who decides on the state of exception". We decided who was the exception in the 2000s pretty easily, but the 2010s saw this recede, and now any semblance of unilateral power we had seems to be pretty much gone.
We should not be in the delusion of thinking we are more powerful than we actually are. In fact, Putin would love it if we somehow put someone like that, in over their heads, in charge of our foreign policy.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/12/13/remarks-by-president-biden-and-president-zelenskyy-of-ukraine-in-joint-press-conference-2/

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  We want to see Ukraine win the war.  And, as I’ve said before, winning means Ukraine is a sovereign, independent nation and — that can afford to defend itself today and deter further aggression.  That’s our objective.

Note winning according to Biden no longer includes Ukraine joining NATO or any mention of Ukraine's territorial integrity. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/27/opinion/ukraine-military-aid.html

"Ukraine Doesn’t Need All Its Territory to Defeat Putin"

More shifting of goalposts on defining victory coming from the USA.

If we're playing this game now, friendly reminder to anyone who might need it that the original Russian victory condition was regime change in Kyiv and all-but-certain annexation of Southern and Eastern Ukraine to Russia within a week or two of the invasion.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/27/biden-endgame-ukraine-00133211

"The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine"

With U.S. and European aid to Ukraine now in serious jeopardy, the Biden administration and European officials are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war, according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat based in Washington. Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine to Russia.

The way I read it is the Biden administration is shifting from Ukraine being a plus in the 2024 election to avoiding Ukraine being a large loser for the Biden/Dem ticket in 2024.  And the way you do this is to avoid large-scale losses in territory even if this means retaking ground is given up.

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/Pouletvolant3/status/1740326914856784370

Ukrainians still seem incapable of holding Russians anywhere at the front. From Kupyansk to Robotine they're losing ground every week.

[jaichind]

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-textbooks-say-trump-lost-rigged-election-1855656

"Russian Textbooks Say Trump Lost in Rigged Election"



Nice troll from Russia

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/d206baa8-3ec9-42f0-b103-2c098d0486d9

"Washington puts forward G7 plan to confiscate $300bn in Russian assets"

Washington has so far not publicly backed seizing Russian assets. But the US privately circulated a discussion paper this year within the G7 suggesting seizures of Moscow’s frozen assets would be lawful as “a countermeasure to induce Russia to end its aggression”.

But Europe, where the majority of the assets are held, is much more wary, fearing the possible implications for financial stability as well as retaliatory action from Russia.

Exactly what are the technical nature of these proposals is not clear but it seems the goal is to propose them in Feb which is the 2nd anniversary of the start of the conflict.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Momentum building in the G7 for the frozen assets idea with the UK, Canada, and Japan now onboard with the US about this idea and the opposition to it just wants a legal framework set up to minimize Russian retaliation.
https://www.ft.com/content/d206baa8-3ec9-42f0-b103-2c098d0486d9

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/12/13/remarks-by-president-biden-and-president-zelenskyy-of-ukraine-in-joint-press-conference-2/

PRESIDENT BIDEN:  We want to see Ukraine win the war.  And, as I’ve said before, winning means Ukraine is a sovereign, independent nation and — that can afford to defend itself today and deter further aggression.  That’s our objective.

Note winning according to Biden no longer includes Ukraine joining NATO or any mention of Ukraine's territorial integrity. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/27/opinion/ukraine-military-aid.html

"Ukraine Doesn’t Need All Its Territory to Defeat Putin"

More shifting of goalposts on defining victory coming from the USA.

I'd always love to be a bug on the phone of the White House central staffers calling up political commentators to influence them.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Yulia Tymoshenko gets involved in the game of mobilization football.  She proposes sending half of all security forces to the front - from the police, prosecutor's office, BEB, and other law enforcement agencies.
https://twitter.com/TheGhost270/status/1740132425043447948

It's either the sign she's a crackpot or they're in trouble. They've not been trained on this style of conflict and would be maybe one step better than militia.

[jaichind]

Yulia Tymoshenko gets involved in the game of mobilization football.  She proposes sending half of all security forces to the front - from the police, prosecutor's office, BEB, and other law enforcement agencies.

It's either the sign she's a crackpot or they're in trouble. They've not been trained on this style of conflict and would be maybe one step better than militia.

She is an attention-seeking has-been.  This whole 500K mobilization talk is political football between  Zelensky and Zaluzhny as well as a pressure tactic to squeeze more money out of the collective West establishment.

[jaichind]

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/russland-ukraine-krieg-michael-kretschmer-schlaegt-ukraine-voruebergehenden-gebietsverzicht-vor-a-2ecab94c-aa34-4a8d-854b-c3552981e8bc

"Kretschmer suggests Ukraine temporarily give up territory"

Michael Kretschmer, the minister-president of Saxony, told Der Spiegel on Wednesday that it was "time for a final solution" to the 23-month conflict while advocating for Ukraine to consider freezing current borders in exchange for a ceasefire.  Of course the word "temporarily" pretty much means this is just a pause in fighting before the war starts later in the future.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/GuntNews/status/1740411955012325741
RIP Bozo

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1740266868685021572
Shameless. Everyone who said the EXACT SAME THING that US government is saying now, but at the start of the war was called a Russian sympathizer by the braindead liberal follower mass that does anything to humiliate themselves as long as it shields Biden and/or US government from criticism.

Those who actually have critical thinking instead of needing propaganda and groupthink to define what they believe in, it was obvious that this was the plan all along. The problem is having to wait TWO YEARS before coming clean to people in order to justify not finding a common middle ground early on, resulting in an unnecessary big amount of deaths from all sides.

That’s what I always say to people here, the problem isn’t on the “moral values” the USA defends in public, but how they lie about it in order to weaponize public opinion to support whatever is more convenient to them no matter how amoral it can be.

The moral logic defended by the Zelenskyy fanatics in here was that negotiations with Russia were OFF THE TABLE because giving them any inch would empower them to understand that wars of aggression work.

Well, that hasn’t changed at all to justify this shift! Which proves my point to all the innocent idealists or ill-intentioned hawks in here that defended the ~moral~ followed by the US government as something valid that was supported under good faith instead of opportunism.

The worst thing is that I know most people here knew this is where we would come to and acted complicit with the lie instead of being lied to.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1740266868685021572
Shameless. Everyone who said the EXACT SAME THING that US government is saying now, but at the start of the war was called a Russian sympathizer by the braindead liberal follower mass that does anything to humiliate themselves as long as it shields Biden and/or US government from criticism.

Those who actually have critical thinking instead of needing propaganda and groupthink to define what they believe in, it was obvious that this was the plan all along. The problem is having to wait TWO YEARS before coming clean to people in order to justify not finding a common middle ground early on, resulting in an unnecessary big amount of deaths from all sides.

That’s what I always say to people here, the problem isn’t on the “moral values” the USA defends in public, but how they lie about it in order to weaponize public opinion to support whatever is more convenient to them no matter how amoral it can be.

The moral logic defended by the Zelenskyy fanatics in here was that negotiations with Russia were OFF THE TABLE because giving them any inch would empower them to understand that wars of aggression work.

Well, that hasn’t changed at all to justify this shift! Which proves my point to all the innocent idealists or ill-intentioned hawks in here that defended the ~moral~ followed by the US government as something valid that was supported under good faith instead of opportunism.

The worst thing is that I know most people here knew this is where we would come to and acted complicit with the lie instead of being lied to.

First off it’s Politico lol. Second you are called a Russian sympathizer because you mocked Russian war crime accusations, said Ukraine provoked the invasion, said Euromaiden was a CIA coup and refused to engage with KaiserDave when he brought receipts on why that accusation was baseless. In addition to referring to South Americans who support Ukraine are self hating fascist and recommending Bilaps rants on how Ukraine are a bunch of Nazis and Russia is the best military power and history. But please do go on with your rewriting of history

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-28/funding-for-ukraine-pm-asks-donors-for-prompt-payments-on-budget-uncertainty

"Ukraine Asks Donors for Prompt Funding, Citing ‘High Uncertainty’ on Budget"



The full court press by Ukraine to get more funding continues

[Hindsight was 2020]

"It is reported that Putin is completely furious over the destruction of the Novocherkassk large landing ship. An order was issued to punish the Crimean air defence forces. It is expected that many commanders will be removed and sent to the front to participate in assault groups."
Please god let this be true because it’d be so funny
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-warship-destroyed-ukraine-war-attack-crimea-3zg6pckjc

[Storr]

Russia moment. There's a different serial killer named Pavel Shuvalov who has an english wikipedia page and died in 2020. The guy who died back in May fighting in Ukraine, whose death has been publicized only now, just has a Russian wikipedia entry. Coincidentally, they were both born in 1968:

"Pavel Shuvalov, who raped at least 27 women and killed two of them, has reportedly died fighting in Ukraine as a prisoner recruit. He won't be missed."

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1740493172302823799?s=20

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1740266868685021572
Shameless. Everyone who said the EXACT SAME THING that US government is saying now, but at the start of the war was called a Russian sympathizer by the braindead liberal follower mass that does anything to humiliate themselves as long as it shields Biden and/or US government from criticism.

Those who actually have critical thinking instead of needing propaganda and groupthink to define what they believe in, it was obvious that this was the plan all along. The problem is having to wait TWO YEARS before coming clean to people in order to justify not finding a common middle ground early on, resulting in an unnecessary big amount of deaths from all sides.

That’s what I always say to people here, the problem isn’t on the “moral values” the USA defends in public, but how they lie about it in order to weaponize public opinion to support whatever is more convenient to them no matter how amoral it can be.

The moral logic defended by the Zelenskyy fanatics in here was that negotiations with Russia were OFF THE TABLE because giving them any inch would empower them to understand that wars of aggression work.

Well, that hasn’t changed at all to justify this shift! Which proves my point to all the innocent idealists or ill-intentioned hawks in here that defended the ~moral~ followed by the US government as something valid that was supported under good faith instead of opportunism.

The worst thing is that I know most people here knew this is where we would come to and acted complicit with the lie instead of being lied to.

First off it’s Politico lol. Second you are called a Russian sympathizer because you mocked Russian war crime accusations, said Ukraine provoked the invasion, said Euromaiden was a CIA coup and refused to engage with KaiserDave when he brought receipts on why that accusation was baseless. In addition to referring to South Americans who support Ukraine are self hating fascist and recommending Bilaps rants on how Ukraine are a bunch of Nazis and Russia is the best military power and history. But please do go on with your rewriting of history

What I find to be a good response about the Politico article:

"Further to the Hirsh story in @politico: There are two separate issues to keep in mind when reading it: 1) Anybody calling the shots in DC or Kyiv knows UKR isn’t in a position to go on the offensive now: it needs to mobilize 500k men and additional US aid is uncertain. So no one in DC has to push Ukraine to move into defensive mode; 2) Cutting a deal with Moscow on territory. This doesn’t logically or empirically necessarily follow from point 1 and in any event won’t happen in 2024 b/c Putin will wait to see how the U.S. election turns out. So it’s not the case that the US, in a recent policy shift, is pushing UKR to cut a deal NOW. Even Hirsh specifies that the defensive option is meant to convince Putin he can’t prevail. Could there be a deal w/ territorial compromises down the line? Possibly. But not now."

https://twitter.com/rajan_menon_/status/1740413839718359347?s=20

[PSOL]

It was obvious this was a repeat of the Yugoslavia situation where the United States was deliberately prolonging the war to kneecap their enemies and make bank on weapon sales.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It was obvious this was a repeat of the Yugoslavia situation where the United States was deliberately prolonging the war to kneecap their enemies and make bank on weapon sales self described leftist like me play defense for the side committing genocide because our foreign policy position really is just being against the side America supports.

FIFY

[bilaps]

Russia which ran out of missiles a year ago is in the middle of one of the biggest missile attacks at the moment. But I expect Ukraine's critical infrastructure will intercept all of them. One will hit some apartment building though for no reason, it won't be a stray AD missile.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Residential buildings and hospitals. F**K Putin 😡
https://twitter.com/teoyaomiquu/status/1740622379687330125?s=46&t=ZHeS7rMUpm...
https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1740649211513786543?s=12

[jaichind]

Russia which ran out of missiles a year ago is in the middle of one of the biggest missile attacks at the moment. But I expect Ukraine's critical infrastructure will intercept all of them. One will hit some apartment building though for no reason, it won't be a stray AD missile.

The Ukraine party line will be: Ukraine shot down all Russian missiles, even the hypersonic ones, and the only ones that got through hit schools and baby food factories. 

[jaichind]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/12/28/ukraine-is-losing-but-the-uk-must-stand-by-it/

"Ukraine is losing, but the UK must stand by it"



History of this person's articles in 2023

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/unidentified-object-entered-poland-direction-ukraine-says-polish-army-2023-12-29/

"Unidentified object enters Poland from direction of Ukraine, says Polish army"



Very likely to be Ukraine's anti-missile system.  Hopefully this time the collective West and Ukraine media does not make the mistake of trying to claim it is Russian.