Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2023-09-14/american-weapons-ukraine-theft-11374430.html

USA DoD media: "US weapons headed to Ukraine at risk of theft from lax security, IG says"

Weird messaging. Hard to blame the Ukrainians to feel like their allies aren't 100% in...even if I'm inclined to believe such a headline given context.

[jaichind]

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/International/wireStory/ukraine-fires-6-deputy-defense-ministers-heavy-fighting-103272745

"Ukraine fires 6 deputy defense ministers as heavy fighting continues in the east"

Looks like a big house cleaning is going on at Ukraine MoD

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/International/wireStory/ukraine-fires-6-deputy-defense-ministers-heavy-fighting-103272745

"Ukraine fires 6 deputy defense ministers as heavy fighting continues in the east"

Looks like a big house cleaning is going on at Ukraine MoD

At least they didn't fall from a window.
Amirite comrade Ivan?

[jaichind]

Weird messaging. Hard to blame the Ukrainians to feel like their allies aren't 100% in...even if I'm inclined to believe such a headline given context.

I think it is to coordinate with Ukraine de facto messaging which is "the current counteroffensive is going slower than expected due to corruption at the MoD, we are still working to clean house"  By pointing out there are issues with lax security on Ukraine's side the USA DoD is trying to validate that narrative.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1703745611009331639?s=12
Traitors getting cooked 😎

[jaichind]

Has Ukraine been able to boost soldier salaries much during the war?

Looking at

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/can-ukraine-afford-to-keep-paying-its-soldiers-a-fighting-salary/

around $2700 a month for someone fighting on the front.  It is more like $800 a month for someone not actively fighting risking their lives at the front.

[jaichind]

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4209406-zelensky-says-us-support-to-ukraine-is-bigger-than-war-if-ukraine-falls-putin-will-surely-go-further/

"Zelensky says US support to Ukraine is bigger than war: ‘If Ukraine falls, Putin will surely go further’"

“Look, if Ukraine falls, what will happen in ten years? Just think about it. If [the Russians] reach Poland, what’s next? A Third World War?” Zelensky continued.

I do not think Zelensky's logic makes sense or other NATO states do not agree with his logic.  If a Russian victory in Ukraine means an invasion of Poland in 10 years then that invalidates the deterrence value of NATO.  If so then what is the point of Ukraine joining NATO?   And if a Russian victory does mean the end of the deterrence value of NATO then that would pose an existential threat to NATO which should mean that NATO should deploy boots on the ground to prevent this.  The fact that other NATO states are careful to avoid this scenario seems to indicate they do not see the situation the same way as Zekelsky.

[Hindsight was 2020]

jaichind how can you be in this thread for so long and quote so many European sources yet somehow don’t see how Russia being anywhere near Poland or Romania’s border is a recipe for disaster as Zelensky is saying? Especially after the drone incident that happened a few weeks ago?

[jaichind]

jaichind how can you be in this thread for so long and quote so many European sources yet somehow don’t see how Russia being anywhere near Poland or Romania’s border is a recipe for disaster as Zelensky is saying? Especially after the drone incident that happened a few weeks ago?

Why cannot I see this war as Russia's viewing all East Slavic states as part of its sphere of influence and will take military action to ensure that remains the case? 

In such a situation Russia being on the border of Poland has no more meaning than Russia being on the border of Finland.  I am not saying this is the only way to read the situation only that it is not "obvious" that Russia being on the border of Poland would be a problem for anyone.  And going with my narrative I think Russia would not think of Western Ukraine as part of its influence and would be glad to be outside of Russia's zone of control or let Poland have it.   Under that premise, it is not even clear whether a total Russian victory would mean Russian troops would even show up on Poland's current borders

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1703771938911350986

[jaichind]

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force transgender spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo announces that: " Ukraine will hunt down "Russian propagandists" around the world."

https://twitter.com/ducaena/status/1701741396363792650

https://voz.us/senator-vance-is-urging-the-biden-administration-to-clarify-whether-it-has-any-links-to-the-spokesman-of-the-ukrainian-militias/?lang=en

"Senator Vance is urging the Biden administration to clarify whether it has any links to the spokesman of the Ukrainian militias"

I guess Senator Vance also caught on to this threat from the Ukraine Territorial Defence Force spokesperson.  If she is just some random person on the internet it does not matter.  But she is the official spokesperson of a branch of the Ukraine government.  If you take what she says seriously then Tucker Carlson would have to start doing his show from an undisclosed location.

[Hindsight was 2020]

jaichind how can you be in this thread for so long and quote so many European sources yet somehow don’t see how Russia being anywhere near Poland or Romania’s border is a recipe for disaster as Zelensky is saying? Especially after the drone incident that happened a few weeks ago?

Why cannot I see this war as Russia's viewing all East Slavic states as part of its sphere of influence and will take military action to ensure that remains the case? 

In such a situation Russia being on the border of Poland has no more meaning than Russia being on the border of Finland.  I am not saying this is the only way to read the situation only that it is not "obvious" that Russia being on the border of Poland would be a problem for anyone.  And going with my narrative I think Russia would not think of Western Ukraine as part of its influence and would be glad to be outside of Russia's zone of control or let Poland have it.   Under that premise, it is not even clear whether a total Russian victory would mean Russian troops would even show up on Poland's current borders

You really don’t understand the situation if you think Poland and Russia’s feelings toward each other are remotely comparable to that of Russia and Finland

[jaichind]

Anti-Putin Russian media Mediazona estimates of Russian casualties.   Their counting method has the Russian casualty rate peaking in late 2022 to early 2023 and heading downward since.

[Virginiá]

Pictures from the now-confirmed destroyed Kilo-class sub

https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1703736274484334701

[Hindsight was 2020]

Pictures from the now-confirmed destroyed Kilo-class sub

https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1703736274484334701

[Stranger in a strange land]

It seems the goal is no longer Ukraine victory but to prevent a Russian victory and get to a "reasonable peace"

Great analysis comrade Ivan.

How would you define a Russian victory or a Ukraine victory? Personally...

Since he's not going to answer, Russia has already been defeated (in the sense that two of it's 3 main goals set out at the start of the war have failed), and the difference at this point is whether Russia suffers a marginal defeat or a major defeat. The "victory" he's referring to likely means that Russia would be allowed to keep the territory captured during the war that it still holds, but a relatively small amount of territory in Southern & Eastern Ukraine is in no way worth the human, material, strategic, and economic losses that Russia has suffered.

In his speech announcing the Special Military Operation, Putin laid out three goals: Demilitarization, De-Nazification, and Saving the People of the Donbas. Let's see how each is going:

1) Demilitarization: utterly failed: the armed forces of Ukraine are much larger, better-equipped, and more experienced than they were at the outset of the war, and Ukraine is likely to join NATO and the EU at some point
2) De-Nazification: most people take this to mean regime change, and replacement of Ukraine's current government with one aligned with Russia: this one has utterly failed as well, possibly even worse than the first. There is no way that Russia can now recapture Kyiv and topple the Ukrainian government, even if Western Aid is cut off, and if the Ukrainian government falls or is toppled at any point in the future, it'll likely be by hardline nationalists rejecting a peace deal, who will be even more anti-Russian
3) "Save the People of the Donbas": this is usually interpreted as "liberating" Dontesk and Luhansk within their adminisrative boundaries, as well as the Crimean land bridge. While this is the goal on which they've had the most success, in that they DO hold the landbridge, they don't hold all of Donetsk or even Luhansk. And they're one "Panic in Balakaliya" away from losing that.

In exchange for this:
- Russia has lost its largest and most lucrative market for gas exports
- Finland and Sweden are now in NATO, so Russia's border with NATO is now 800 km longer
- The Baltic is now a NATO Lake, and Turkey, not Russia, is the dominant power in the Black Sea for the first time in centuries
- The market for Russian arms exports is tanking, with the rather amazing *cough ahem* advertisting they've gotten
- Europe is pushed back into close geopolitical alignment with the US, NATO is suddenly relevant again, and Russia is ever more dependent on and subservient to China

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Weird messaging. Hard to blame the Ukrainians to feel like their allies aren't 100% in...even if I'm inclined to believe such a headline given context.

I think it is to coordinate with Ukraine de facto messaging which is "the current counteroffensive is going slower than expected due to corruption at the MoD, we are still working to clean house"  By pointing out there are issues with lax security on Ukraine's side the USA DoD is trying to validate that narrative.

Ah. I could see that.

[pppolitics]

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force transgender spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo announces that: " Ukraine will hunt down "Russian propagandists" around the world."

https://twitter.com/ducaena/status/1701741396363792650

https://voz.us/senator-vance-is-urging-the-biden-administration-to-clarify-whether-it-has-any-links-to-the-spokesman-of-the-ukrainian-militias/?lang=en

"Senator Vance is urging the Biden administration to clarify whether it has any links to the spokesman of the Ukrainian militias"

I guess Senator Vance also caught on to this threat from the Ukraine Territorial Defence Force spokesperson.  If she is just some random person on the internet it does not matter.  But she is the official spokesperson of a branch of the Ukraine government.  If you take what she says seriously then Tucker Carlson would have to start doing his show from an undisclosed location.

When she talks about "Russian propagandists" who are information agents, she is talking about people like you.

https://twitter.com/SarahAshtonLV/status/1703766677475766329

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force transgender spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo announces that: " Ukraine will hunt down "Russian propagandists" around the world."

https://twitter.com/ducaena/status/1701741396363792650

https://voz.us/senator-vance-is-urging-the-biden-administration-to-clarify-whether-it-has-any-links-to-the-spokesman-of-the-ukrainian-militias/?lang=en

"Senator Vance is urging the Biden administration to clarify whether it has any links to the spokesman of the Ukrainian militias"

I guess Senator Vance also caught on to this threat from the Ukraine Territorial Defence Force spokesperson.  If she is just some random person on the internet it does not matter.  But she is the official spokesperson of a branch of the Ukraine government.  If you take what she says seriously then Tucker Carlson would have to start doing his show from an undisclosed location.

When she talks about "Russian propagandists" who are information agents, she is talking about people like you.

https://twitter.com/SarahAshtonLV/status/1703766677475766329

Omg what if we had it backwards this whole time and Ukraine took out Woodbury? 😱

[Lykaon]

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force transgender spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo announces that: " Ukraine will hunt down "Russian propagandists" around the world."

https://twitter.com/ducaena/status/1701741396363792650

https://voz.us/senator-vance-is-urging-the-biden-administration-to-clarify-whether-it-has-any-links-to-the-spokesman-of-the-ukrainian-militias/?lang=en

"Senator Vance is urging the Biden administration to clarify whether it has any links to the spokesman of the Ukrainian militias"

I guess Senator Vance also caught on to this threat from the Ukraine Territorial Defence Force spokesperson.  If she is just some random person on the internet it does not matter.  But she is the official spokesperson of a branch of the Ukraine government.  If you take what she says seriously then Tucker Carlson would have to start doing his show from an undisclosed location.

When she talks about "Russian propagandists" who are information agents, she is talking about people like you.

https://twitter.com/SarahAshtonLV/status/1703766677475766329

Omg what if we had it backwards this whole time and Ukraine took out Woodbury? 😱

I’m still going with the theory that he was on the plane with Prigozhin. Either way, lesson for vatniks, if Ukraine doesn’t get you, uncle Vova will do it himself when you’ve outlived your usefulness

[pppolitics]

Ukraine Territorial Defence Force transgender spokesperson Sarah Ashton-Cirillo announces that: " Ukraine will hunt down "Russian propagandists" around the world."

https://twitter.com/ducaena/status/1701741396363792650

https://voz.us/senator-vance-is-urging-the-biden-administration-to-clarify-whether-it-has-any-links-to-the-spokesman-of-the-ukrainian-militias/?lang=en

"Senator Vance is urging the Biden administration to clarify whether it has any links to the spokesman of the Ukrainian militias"

I guess Senator Vance also caught on to this threat from the Ukraine Territorial Defence Force spokesperson.  If she is just some random person on the internet it does not matter.  But she is the official spokesperson of a branch of the Ukraine government.  If you take what she says seriously then Tucker Carlson would have to start doing his show from an undisclosed location.

When she talks about "Russian propagandists" who are information agents, she is talking about people like you.

https://twitter.com/SarahAshtonLV/status/1703766677475766329

Omg what if we had it backwards this whole time and Ukraine took out Woodbury? 😱

I’m still going with the theory that he was on the plane with Prigozhin. Either way, lesson for vatniks, if Ukraine doesn’t get you, uncle Vova will do it himself when you’ve outlived your usefulness

He was last active on Atlas 6 hours and 19 minutes before Prigozhin's plane was shot down.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Maybe he was Prigozhin himself.

[Storr]

But the anti-war left and right-wing weirdos say Ukraine needs to make a peace deal with Russia:

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1703762022582612247?s=20

[Storr]

Back in reality:

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1703781208008589508?s=20

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1703783313343762770?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1703843335851454936?s=46&t=ZHeS7rMUpm...
Say what you will about how long and sluggish it is but at least Ukraine’s counterattack isn’t going backwards like Russia’s attempt in the north has lol