Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Lord Halifax]

But things could get even worse if the Russians manage to repel all attacks. Then the Ukrainians will have to prepare for a Russian counteroffensive.”

since they don't have substantial reserves left that would mean the Russians leaving their fortified positions and moving beyond the mine belts which could be a benefit for Ukraine.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/VigorousFalcon/status/1689322395490996225?s=20

This is the last trench outside of Robotyne 👀

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1689224558832705536?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1689388040307789824?s=20
Shocking

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1689407478440550401?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/GermanObserver1/status/1689444584303013888?s=20
Inshallah Urozhaine liberation is near

[oldtimer]

I thought the counteroffensive was a major success though? What are they complaining about then? How did endless billions and billions of dollars got all spent in a shovel and airplane advertising like the cartoon mocks? Where did all that money go to, then?

Funny how the narrative changes so absurdly quickly when not backed by reality. This conflict will stay as looooong stand-off and anyone who acts this is being solved this year or the next is just lying to others and maybe even to themselves.

It isn't.

I gave it 2 months+ for the benefit of the doubt, I think it was doomed the moment they did a "russian" and attacked the enemy strongpoints head-on and with tanks.

It's so stupid, only russians had done it in glorious failure last year, even in Bakhmut they needed 10 months to capture it, and for some reason they feel the need to copy that glorious failure.

It's like the ukrainian army forgotten all the lessons of 21st century warfare that they applied in 2022, I wonder if western training has been a detriment.
 

[Woody]

The Ukrainian authorities have announced a "mandatory evacuation" of the entire Kupyansk district in Kharkiv Oblast, as the Russian Army reached Synkivka yesterday. Still 7 kilometers away from Kupyansk itself. This entire war has become a snail race.

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1689611483364155392

[Woody]

Russians want Kupyansk & Everything east of the Oskil' river

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1689615670072283139
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1689628085237301249

[Sir Mohamed]

This threaf is such a detailled collection of the war from the start, it could very well be archieved and used for future writings.

[Tintrlvr]

This threaf is such a detailled collection of the war from the start, it could very well be archieved and used for future writings.

Too bad 90% of the info is just posted as links to Twitter so it will only survive as long as Twitter does.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This threaf is such a detailled collection of the war from the start, it could very well be archieved and used for future writings.

Too bad 90% of the info is just posted as links to Twitter so it will only survive as long as Twitter does.

One of the flaws of Twitter embedding. Many old threads were essentially unreadable during the period that Trump's Twitter account was banned.

[Hindsight was 2020]

This threaf is such a detailled collection of the war from the start, it could very well be archieved and used for future writings.

Too bad 90% of the info is just posted as links to Twitter so it will only survive as long as Twitter does.

Sorry about that I’m normally just finding a twitter link to news I saw on telegram because I’m not sure telegram links work here lol

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1689581245120806912?s=20

[It’s so Joever]

This threaf is such a detailled collection of the war from the start, it could very well be archieved and used for future writings.

I once stumbled upon a (different) forum thread covering 9/11 live and it was truly amazing to read. I don’t remember where I found it but it exists somewhere.

[Storr]

"The bloody Central Bank, which has alarmed the whole country and isn't even explaining why the hell the ruble exchange rate has jumped so high that every other country is now laughing at our ruble being one of the three weakest currencies." - Solovyov

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1689567474306416640?s=20

[It’s so Joever]

"The bloody Central Bank, which has alarmed the whole country and isn't even explaining why the hell the ruble exchange rate has jumped so high that every other country is now laughing at our ruble being one of the three weakest currencies." - Solovyov

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1689567474306416640?s=20

Interesting as always how little the “totally neutral” currency “expert” has been talking about the exchange rate continuing to fall at a steady pace.

[Virginiá]

I wish I could be more happy about this development, but it has unfortunately followed the same trend as all other aid: Eventually Ukraine's allies agree, but only after hesitating for many months, and finally agreeing only after the most opportune window of time has already passed.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1689676350053896192

[Florida Man for Crime]

This threaf is such a detailled collection of the war from the start, it could very well be archieved and used for future writings.

Too bad 90% of the info is just posted as links to Twitter so it will only survive as long as Twitter does.

One of the flaws of Twitter embedding. Many old threads were essentially unreadable during the period that Trump's Twitter account was banned.

Start of the invasion is right here:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8493009#msg8493009

One good thing is I posted a lot of tweets with the various rumors shortly before the beginning on the full-scale invasion. But instead of just posting the tweets, for most I also included a short text summary (I was actually vaguely thinking that for the future it should not just be a twitter link). So that provides at least some timeline of when things were starting to be reported even if twitter archives no longer exist at a certain point. If any future historians ever read this years down the line looking for sources later and twitter is unavailable as a historical source, I suggest trying to look at OSINT discords for more info documenting things in real time.

Those moments in history when a major event is happening are a unique time when there is great uncertainty and rumors and news are flying very quickly. They are the days or weeks when decades happen. This happens infrequently, but when it does, you know at the time that it is important, and previous expectations and assumptions are suddenly upended. 9/11 being another example. Or, for US domestic politics, January 6.

IMO perhaps the most important single lesson of history is that these times do occur, and things can change very quickly and suddenly seem totally different than they did just before. Expect the unexpected, and never let your mind get too stuck into conventional wisdom, or you are liable to get caught by surprise during those sorts of times.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Dudes….👀

[Woody]

Yes, that sign is very impressive.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I wish I could be more happy about this development, but it has unfortunately followed the same trend as all other aid: Eventually Ukraine's allies agree, but only after hesitating for many months, and finally agreeing only after the most opportune window of time has already passed.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1689676350053896192

German hesitancy on delivering the Taurus stemmed from the fact that it is a mid-range stealth missile. In its standard configuration it's an offensve weapon you can bomb Russia with.

[Virginiá]

German hesitancy on delivering the Taurus stemmed from the fact that it is a mid-range stealth missile. In its standard configuration it's an offensve weapon you can bomb Russia with.

That is fair obviously but Germany doesn't seem to have a problem with that so much as they just want cover from the US. They are also apparently looking into re-programming the missile to not accept coordinates inside Russia. What I was getting at was that Ukraine asked for this a long time ago and allies eventually reconciled their concerns in the end, so what was stopping that 6 months ago?

This touches back on some decent articles I read some time ago about the allies not really having a proper plan for how this war should be supported. They didn't actually start seriously ramping up aid to support a strong counter-offensive until January 2023. The decisions on long-range fires seemed predictable, given how dependent each side is on indirect fires.

So given that Ukraine's allies are committed to helping Ukraine reach a certain outcome, I'm just disappointed they couldn't have made all these decisions sooner. If they had drawn a red line and stuck to it and explained their rationale, that would be different. Letting so much time pass has allowed Russia to adapt and we are seeing the results of that.

[Virginiá]

Biden seeking $40B in emergency funds for Ukraine, disaster relief

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/10/biden-ukraine-emergency-funds-00110691

The Biden administration is asking congressional leaders for about $40 billion in new emergency spending, a request that’s sure to intensify this fall’s already arduous government funding fight.

The cash that President Joe Biden requested formally on Thursday includes more than $24 billion in aid to Ukraine, $12 billion to replenish a dwindling pot of federal disaster relief and $4 billion to address issues at the southern border, like shelter and services for migrants and counter-fentanyl efforts.

Administration officials said the proposal aims to address Ukraine’s needs for the first quarter of the new fiscal year that begins in October, adding that existing funding will suffice until then.

“We won’t be bashful about going back to Congress beyond the first quarter of next year if we feel like we need to do that,” a senior administration official told reporters. “It’s really ... the best estimate we can come up with for what we think we’re going to need to support Ukraine, at least for those first three months of the year.”

[CanadianDemocrat]

I wish I could be more happy about this development, but it has unfortunately followed the same trend as all other aid: Eventually Ukraine's allies agree, but only after hesitating for many months, and finally agreeing only after the most opportune window of time has already passed.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1689676350053896192

Ukraine has liberated a huge amount much territory from the Russians in 2022, without a single Western tank or IFV. If they had the Western tanks and IFVs in September 2022, the Ukrainian Kharkiv blitzkrieg could also have liberated the whole Luhansk oblast as well.