Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Excellent video that summarizes the strategic stakes of the war at this point:

Basically, Russia has already "lost" in terms of all its pre-war aims. The military, political, economic and demographic hole it has dug itself into is one it won't be able to climb out of for generations. It can at best continue the stalemate, perhaps achieving local success, but none of it will bring it close to the kind of strategic position it was striving for before the war.

Ukraine, however, hasn't won yet, and the difference between a years-long prolonged war of attrition that exhausts both sides and a decisive Ukrainian victory entirely depends on what the West is going to do. We have the economic and military capability to provide Ukraine with what they need to win, but we have to actually use it to its full potential.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-23/the-growing-cash-pile-in-moscow-foreign-investors-can-t-touch

"The Growing Cash Pile in Moscow That Investors Can’t Touch"

Russia also has frozen $150 billion in Western assets in Russia which it could just nationalize if the collective West tries to seize Russian assets in the collective West.  Of course the latter amounts to a much larger number but there are all sorts of legal hurdles to seize frozen Russian assets  and it seems Switzerland is not playing ball anyway.

[2952-0-0]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-23/the-growing-cash-pile-in-moscow-foreign-investors-can-t-touch

"The Growing Cash Pile in Moscow That Investors Can’t Touch"

Russia also has frozen $150 billion in Western assets in Russia which it could just nationalize if the collective West tries to seize Russian assets in the collective West.  Of course the latter amounts to a much larger number but there are all sorts of legal hurdles to seize frozen Russian assets  and it seems Switzerland is not playing ball anyway.

But, can the Russians make full use of these nationalized foreign investments?

All the Boeing and Airbus aircraft that are leased from western lessors now cannot access spare parts - what will that mean to Russia's civil aviation sector in the coming years?

Much of its manufacturing sector depends on machine tools and components which must be imported from western countries - that sector in particular has suffered the most due to western sanctions.

As for the oil and gas sector, a lot of Russia's oil fields are located in the Arctic, and require components which can only be imported from the western countries. What happens when these components reach the end of their service life?

And frankly, if I were the boss of "China State XYZ Corporation", I would be very leery about signing off on a long-term investment project in Russia. You never know that if/when Russia/China relations take a nosedive, whoever in the Kremlin won't nationalize that project and allow my political rivals at home to throw accusations at me. I would, at the very least, need Xi Jinping's personal sign-off, accompanied with lots of propaganda about his gloriousness in order to maximize the responsibility onto himself. That's why it has always been a fantasy that somehow Chinese (or India) companies could rush in to replace lost western investment.

[2952-0-0]

Remember that peace plan that was promised by China? Here is the official text:

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html

Just as I expected, it's a big nothingburger. The points that are valid are mixed in with "give Russia everything it wants", and it doesn't even call for the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukraine. The Chinese call impressively-long speeches, and impressively-long writings by Party bureaucrats that mean nothing at all, as "fake, big, and empty". ChatGPT could have generated a better peace plan, because it would have at least called for the withdrawal of Russian troops to at least the pre-2022 positions.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1629173995961548801?s=20

[AndyHogan14]

Any “compromise” peace deal would/should be status quo ante bellum. The Ukrainians have a decent enough chance of cutting the land bridge in the coming months, so anything that gives Russia territory beyond the February 24, 2022 lines should be a nonstarter.

[Storr]

First Polish Leopards have arrived in Ukraine. Germany bumps its number of Leopards up to 18. Sweden commits to sending 10 Leopards.



https://twitter.com/TVPWorld_com/status/1629137825873670144



https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1629139911910780929



https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1629137691156553728

video:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1629184837415215105?s=20

[Woody]

Wagner in Berkhivka:
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1629132185390260225

[Woody]

Generally, south of Ivanivske is stable. In the north, after Berkhivka, Wagner continues it's assaults on Yahidne and lay pressure on Dubovo-Vasylivka, some say the AFU abandoned it today, but I have reason to believe they are still there. Yahidne is almost fully under Wagner control.

Every day Wagner advances towards Khromove road. Bakhmut is lost.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1629198691264262144?cxt=HHwWgMCz1f3kiZwtA...

[jaichind]

Any “compromise” peace deal would/should be status quo ante bellum. The Ukrainians have a decent enough chance of cutting the land bridge in the coming months, so anything that gives Russia territory beyond the February 24, 2022 lines should be a nonstarter.

Totally reasonable from a Ukraine point of view.  From a Russian point of view something like another variation of Minsk accords will also not be acceptable given their view that they were cheated by the non-implementation of Minsk II.  It seems the most likely outcome would be indefinite war.

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/24/china-calls-for-russia-ukraine-cease-fire-proposes-peace-talks

"China calls for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, proposes path to peace"

The PRC peace plan seems to be
a) End to fighting ASAP
b) End all sanctions
c) Talks to resolve issues

The PRC seems to have came up with this plan to get to the following result
Russia: Interesting, we are thinking about it
Ukraine: NO!!!
Collective West: NO!!!

PRC to Global South: See, Russia is being reasonable while Ukraine and the collective West are not.  We tried.

You're probably correct that this is the goal of the Chinese peace plan, but it doesn't have much for Russia to like, aside from the lifting of sanctions. This is precisely because, as others have noted, it's mostly meaningless word salad. Notably, it doesn't address any of Russia's war aims:
- Nothing about Ukraine agreeing to not join NATO (arguably point 2 addresses that, though not explicity, and such a requirement could also be seen as going against point 1)
- Nothing requiring Ukraine to "de-militarize" or "de-Nazify"
- Nothing about the final status of Crimea, Donbas, or the other occupied regions

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/24/china-calls-for-russia-ukraine-cease-fire-proposes-peace-talks

"China calls for Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, proposes path to peace"

The PRC peace plan seems to be
a) End to fighting ASAP
b) End all sanctions
c) Talks to resolve issues

The PRC seems to have came up with this plan to get to the following result
Russia: Interesting, we are thinking about it
Ukraine: NO!!!
Collective West: NO!!!

PRC to Global South: See, Russia is being reasonable while Ukraine and the collective West are not.  We tried.

You're probably correct that this is the goal of the Chinese peace plan, but it doesn't have much for Russia to like, aside from the lifting of sanctions. This is precisely because, as others have noted, it's mostly meaningless word salad. Notably, it doesn't address any of Russia's war aims:
- Nothing about Ukraine agreeing to not join NATO (arguably point 2 addresses that, though not explicity, and such a requirement could also be seen as going against point 1)
- Nothing requiring Ukraine to "de-militarize" or "de-Nazify"
- Nothing about the final status of Crimea, Donbas, or the other occupied regions

Of course.  That would be a feature and not a bug.  The point of this peace plan is for the PRC to score points with the Global South vis-à-vis the collective West with Ukraine being collateral damage.  If the plan is just a list of Russian war aims then it loses the superficially neutral aspect of the plan to impress the Global South.  It just has to be a plan that Russia will not reject day 1.  In this case I think it was vague enough for Russia not to reject it out of hand.

[CumbrianLefty]

Indeed, haven't both Russia and Ukraine both "welcomed" it in at least formal terms?

[jaichind]

[Woody]

If Yahidne's southern part falls, Wagner will have full overview of the Khromove road as they hold the hills, and proper fire control will finally have been reached on every supply road to Bakhmut.

Ukraine has been slowly abandoning the east of Bakhmutivka, most likely a precursor to full withdrawal from the city itself.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Seems kind of ridiculous to cite an incomplete figure for Ukrainian military aid. What's the number if we do include those?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wow just incredible…how bad of an investment Afghanistan was. God this is a better use of our money

[Storr]

First Polish Leopards have arrived in Ukraine. Germany bumps its number of Leopards up to 18. Sweden commits to sending 10 Leopards.



https://twitter.com/TVPWorld_com/status/1629137825873670144



https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1629139911910780929



https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1629137691156553728

video:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1629184837415215105?s=20

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1629218143024435204?s=20

[2952-0-0]

Of course.  That would be a feature and not a bug.  The point of this peace plan is for the PRC to score points with the Global South vis-à-vis the collective West with Ukraine being collateral damage.  If the plan is just a list of Russian war aims then it loses the superficially neutral aspect of the plan to impress the Global South.  It just has to be a plan that Russia will not reject day 1.  In this case I think it was vague enough for Russia not to reject it out of hand.

Except that just yesterday, the majority of the nations of Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, as well as large parts of Africa, voted to support the peace plan proposed by Zelensky, which called for a total withdrawal of all Russian troops from all of Ukraine's territories. So, any plan that doesn't meet the points proposed by Zelensky already doesn't gain their support. Of course, Russia will not reject it on day 1, because it was clear that Beijing consulted Moscow before drafting their plan, and everyone knows it. This "plan" fools no one in the Global South, as evidenced by yesterday's vote. They were fully aware about Beijing's plan when they voted yesterday.

Whatever plan there was for Russia to leverage support from the Global South rested on hopes that the war would cause disruption to global food and fuel supplies. That simply hasn't happened, and in fact, global commodities markets are decidedly bearish. So, what happens in Ukraine doesn't bother them either way.

In any case, just right now, Der Spiegel and CNN are reporting about specific contracts that China is apparently making with Russia for military components. These reports are obviously timed to discredit any idea that China is somehow an honest, neutral third-party.

[Antonio the Sixth]

     Seems kind of ridiculous to cite an incomplete figure for Ukrainian military aid. What's the number if we do include those?

It's worth noting that the value of the military equipment we're sending to Ukraine is massively overinflated on account of several misleading accounting conventions. By and large, a lot of what the US has been donating is old equipment that was going to be retired anyway. At worst, it's a minimal cost in terms of resale value, and at best it's actually doing us a favor by getting rid of stuff we couldn't even hope to resell. But we're valuing them based on the purchase value, which really makes no sense for old equipment.

[Dereich]

     Seems kind of ridiculous to cite an incomplete figure for Ukrainian military aid. What's the number if we do include those?

Its a very weird chart even beyond that Ukrainian aid number; why start the Vietnam War spending in 1965? Why end the Afghanistan spending in 2010? Why end Iraq spending in 2010? The only date that makes sense is Korea and even that could be argued over.  

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1629172418064396290?s=20

https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1629148563253993472?s=20

[Torie]

Wow.

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/natos-biggest-european-members-float-defense-pact-with-ukraine-38966950

"NATO’s Biggest European Members Float Defense Pact With Ukraine"

Germany, France and Britain see stronger ties between NATO and Ukraine as a way to encourage Kyiv to start peace talks with Russia later this year, officials from the three governments said, as some of Kyiv’s Western partners have growing doubts over its ability to reconquer all its territory.

[jaichind]