Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

To expand on Poland's recent contributions, they will be sending 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks, but also 60 T-72 variants (30 PT-91, their domestic upgraded tank, and 30 modernized T-72Ms)

https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1618881729250603010

If NATO can also pry loose the 30 T-72s from Slovakia and ~80 T-80U tanks from Cyprus, then it'll be a party!

You do realize that people are dying right?

Just a brief reminder: They're dying because a dictator has gone insane and sends his own soldiers to death en masse in an effort to conquer territory of a sovereign country that poses no threat on his own country. He can end the killing at any time by ordering his troops back to Russia.

[jaichind]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-germanys-defence-fund-not-163227650.html

"UPDATE 1-Germany's defence fund not enough, sending fighter jets 'ruled out': defence minister"

Germany "rules out" sending fighter jets to Ukraine.

The next cycle begins when Germany draws a line and then is goaded and pressured into crossing it.

[Skill and Chance]

To expand on Poland's recent contributions, they will be sending 14 Leopard 2A4 tanks, but also 60 T-72 variants (30 PT-91, their domestic upgraded tank, and 30 modernized T-72Ms)

https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1618881729250603010

If NATO can also pry loose the 30 T-72s from Slovakia and ~80 T-80U tanks from Cyprus, then it'll be a party!

You do realize that people are dying right?

Thanks for the crocodile tears, Woodman.

Ukraine has every right to defend itself and we are right to provide them with effective means to do that.  However, some of the comments in here are very dismissive about the suffering of war.  It feels a bit too much like the summer of 1914 in here.  There's nothing fun about this.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1619061737550127105

[Virginiá]

You do realize that people are dying right?

I know that more than almost anyone here, as I have relatives in occupied areas I haven't heard from since day one. I have no idea what happened to them.

I cope with this by making light of the pain these weapon deliveries will bring to the Russian military and its murderers. What else should I do?

[Virginiá]

This is a count of both modern NATO tanks and also pledged Soviet/Russian-design tanks. This is a big deal.

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1619072253039378434

[Woody]

You do realize that people are dying right?

I know that more than almost anyone here, as I have relatives in occupied areas I haven't heard from since day one. I have no idea what happened to them.

I cope with this by making light of the pain these weapon deliveries will bring to the Russian military and its murderers. What else should I do?

You're actually Ukrainian? You speak Russian/Ukrainian?

[Virginiá]

You're actually Ukrainian? You speak Russian/Ukrainian?

I'm a first generation American in my family. They are from the former USSR, Ukrainian on my mom's side.

[NOVA Green]

This is a count of both modern NATO tanks and also pledged Soviet/Russian-design tanks. This is a big deal.

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1619072253039378434

So what would this add up to, and additional (3) Ukrainian Tank Brigades, even if we include the long-lead Abrams into the mix?

Meanwhile how many of the old Russian tanks will be used to replace depleting stock from existing Ukrainian armored units versus forming new units?

Not too familiar with the Ukrainian military organizational structure, but it will be interesting to see how Ukraine incorporates this smorgasbord of tanks within both existing or potentially new combined arms movements.

I would imagine because of ammo supplies and logistics you would want to separate certain types of tanks as unique military units rather than combining them into existing...

Sounds like training on Leopards is already starting if I have read reports correctly, but naturally that would also involve how to use these within the context of all types of other military hardware recently donated or currently within Ukrainian active military use...

[Mike88]

In an embarrassing U-turn, Portugal may not send any Leopard tanks to Ukraine because the overwhelming majority of them are inoperative:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1618755284020633601

The Government is assessing whether sending tanks to the front compromises the Army's capabilities. Only a "minority" of the 37 'tanks' are operational. Workouts are not done with more than 14

Despite Zelensky confirmation, a even some Portuguese government sources, that Portugal was ready to sent, at least, four Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, reality is much different. Expresso newspaper reports, this weekend, that an overwhelming majority of the 37 Portuguese tanks are inoperative. Just 14 are used in army exercises and only two are fully operational. The Government is now assessing if sending the tanks may compromise the army's capacities.

[NOVA Green]

You're actually Ukrainian? You speak Russian/Ukrainian?

I'm a first generation American in my family. They are from the former USSR, Ukrainian on my mom's side.

Just recently got off work and saw the (R) avatar from VA's response and was thinking of posting something to the effect of "is the pope Catholic", but then realized it was better for you to respond directly, since there are likely many posters on the forum who don't actually read posts from many other posters on various threads, so gave "Woody" a hall pass on this one.

Still, regardless of your ancestry and family background, not to mention a fellow Atlas member who is a Ukrainian citizen currently active in the Territorial Defense Forces supporting War Crimes investigations against Russian military units, it is patently clear that the overwhelming majority of Atlas Nation supports the legitimate struggle of Ukraine as an existential war of self-defense to choose their own destiny and recover all territory lost since the the unprovoked start of Russia's War against Ukraine which began in 2014 and has not stopped since.

One could make an argument that Russia was already indirectly waging war against Ukraine when it came to intervening in the affairs long before, with the poisoning of Viktor Yushchenko in 2004.

Anyways--- regardless thank you for the classy answer to quite frankly a question which in a text or message post format might honestly look like someone might be challenging your background, plus additionally trying to use "what languages do you speak" could be either a genuine route of inquiry or something else....

Peace, Love, & Solidarity---

NOVA

[HillGoose]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1619061737550127105

common russki L

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.6%        +3.2%       +1.8%      +4.2%      +3.3%          +1.5%
Dec         -3.3%        +3.2%       +1.9%      +4.3%      +3.0%          +1.4%
Jan          -3.0%        +3.3%       +2.1%      +4.2%      +3.0%          +1.3%

* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.7%      +4.9%        +1.3%
Dec          -2.7%       -0.1%         +0.3%       -1.0%      +4.8%        +1.3%
Jan           -2.8%        0.0%         +0.5%       -0.9%      +5.1%        +1.3%
 
2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.3%
Dec       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.1%          +2.4%
Jan        +13.8%       +8.4%       +8.0%      +9.1%      +2.0%          +2.5%

2022 CPI numbers are mostly official and mostly match Dec 2022 consensus.
PRC and USA 2022 GDP came in.  PRC at 3.0% matches Dec 2022 consensus and USA at 2.1% beat Dec 2022 expectations. 

Overall GDP growth expectations of Russia and the EU for 2022/2023 ticked up again.  For the EU it seems to be a mild winter means the energy inflation crisis might abate which means interest rates might not need to go up as much.  Putin said that he expects 2022 Russia's GDP growth to be -2.5% which would be a major outperformance relative to what was expected earlier this year.  The consensus still has it worse than what Putin claims.  We will see when the real numbers come out.  The 2023 GDP picture for Russia is still not good as falling energy prices, the effect of more mobilization, and continued sanctions mean that the economy will continue to contract.

PRC 2023 numbers are shooting up as the COVID-19 lockdown ends and there is a consensus that growth will clearly pick up in 2023 to make up for 2022 underperformance.   My guess is the consensus will continue to rise for the 2023 PRC GDP.   Japan's situation continues to slowly get worse with the downside risk that BOJ might have to finally stop QE in 2023.

Given UK exits in 2022 with the inflation picture not really improving I expect more downside for UK in 2023 as far as GDP numbers are concerned.

[jaichind]

Charlie Hebdo magazine "The poaching season is open"
https://twitter.com/Charlie_Hebdo_/status/1618685956160102417

[CumbrianLefty]

In an embarrassing U-turn, Portugal may not send any Leopard tanks to Ukraine because the overwhelming majority of them are inoperative:

Costa really can't catch a break at the moment can he.

[jaichind]

https://elpais.com/internacional/2023-01-28/ucrania-aspira-a-obtener-un-primer-envio-de-24-cazas-de-los-aliados-internacionales.html

El Pais says that Ukraine is working on getting a bunch of F-16s and expects to get them soon

My question is the same as the tanks.  How is the training, logistical, maintenance, spare parts, supply chain etc systems supposed to work?    It will seem to me there will have to be a large number of NATO contractors/consultants that will need to enter Ukraine to run all this.

[Mike88]

In an embarrassing U-turn, Portugal may not send any Leopard tanks to Ukraine because the overwhelming majority of them are inoperative:

Costa really can't catch a break at the moment can he.

His foreign affairs minister said that Portugal would send tanks, but shortly after his own office said his statement was a "slip". Plus, the Defense minister also said the government was still deciding if they will send tanks or not, and then the foreign affairs minister had to retract everything he said. Costa's luck is that everybody is discussing the Youth World Days fiasco, and are not paying attention to this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In an embarrassing U-turn, Portugal may not send any Leopard tanks to Ukraine because the overwhelming majority of them are inoperative:

Costa really can't catch a break at the moment can he.

His foreign affairs minister said that Portugal would send tanks, but shortly after his own office said his statement was a "slip". Plus, the Defense minister also said the government was still deciding if they will send tanks or not, and then the foreign affairs minister had to retract everything he said. Costa's luck is that everybody is discussing the Youth World Days fiasco, and are not paying attention to this.

Ah. The perks of running a scandal-plagued government! There's bigger things to worry about than a faux pas over tanks!

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1619283170737917953
Ukraine and even western intelligence have been pretty consistent that Russia is losing practically 1k troops per day this month

[Torie]

Putin and His Generals

I coined this title due to recalling reading Lincoln and His Generals in High School. That is not to imply  that Putin is in any way Lincolnesque - precisely the opposite. And if not a sociopath, who in their right mind would want to work for Putin? Poisoned chalice indeed.

In this narrative, like a bad penny, the Wagner guy keeps popping up everywhere. That Wagner subplot is really bizarre - the French Foreign Legion, Russian style.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/28/us/politics/russia-generals-ukraine.html

"With Mr. Putin still insisting that Russia will seize the Donbas and even Kyiv, expectations are rising that General Gerasimov will be under immense pressure to carry out a successful offensive this spring, military officials and analysts say.

“It’s now on him, and I suspect Putin has unrealistic expectations again,” Mark Galeotti, who studies Russian security affairs, said in a Twitter message, calling General Gerasimov’s promotion “the most poisoned of chalices.”

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1619095134624260097?s=20&t=dRN3Zkxt...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1619361259018932224?s=20&t=dRN3Zkxt4mhU...

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1619334552148914176?s=20&t=dRN3Zkxt4mhUD30...

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Putin's terror regime sends teenagers to prison for peaceful anti-war protests ... and prisoners to the Donbass to kill Ukrainians.

What a lovely country Russia is right now.

[jaichind]

https://www.the-sun.com/news/7245784/army-emergency-secret-british-armour-tanks-war-ukraine/

"SHOCK & ROLL Army hammering out emergency plan to keep Putin’s hands off top secret British armour if tanks are damaged in Ukraine"

What is the point of a tank if you are then just afraid to use if because it might fall into the hands of the opponent?

[jaichind]

RAND report "Avoiding a Long War"

https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html

Mostly makes the argument that Russia has already been damaged by the war and that the marginal damage to Russia is reaching diminishing returns while the marginal cost to USA and Ukraine could be increasing if the war continues.  Mostly proposes the USA works toward winding the war down so the USA can focus on "other threats" (read: PRC.)

While the war continues, Russian forces will remain preoccupied with Ukraine and thus not have the bandwidth to menace others. A longer war would further degrade the Russian military and weaken the Russian economy. But the war has already been so devastating to Russian power that further incremental weakening is arguably no longer as significant a benefit for U.S. interests as in the earlier phases of the conflict.

Continued conflict also leaves open the possibility that Russia will reverse Ukrainian battlefield gains made in fall 2022. Moscow’s mobilization might stabilize the lines as of December 2022 and allow Russia to launch offensives in 2023.

The costs for the United States and the European Union of keeping the Ukrainian state economically solvent will multiply over time as conflict inhibits investment and production; Ukrainian refugees remain unable to return; and, as a result, tax revenue and economic activity drop dramatically lower than before the war. Russia’s campaign of destruction of Ukrainian critical infrastructure will create major long-term challenges for sustaining the war effort and for economic recovery and has also substantially increased Kyiv’s projections for the economic support it will need from the United States and its allies.2