Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Russians erected a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets. Seems like they are trying for the encirclement of Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk from the North and now the South since they have Popasna.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1524399801617592322

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524413089579511808

Sorry Comrade, no luck today, but try try again.

Drone footage of the wrecked Russian attempted Siverskyi Donets crossing:

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1524435075026374658?s=20&t=XfPiQMLrUN...

[Storr]

Incredibly based.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1524163737938190337?s=20&t=rkUPg_q...

[NOVA Green]

Russians erected a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets. Seems like they are trying for the encirclement of Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk from the North and now the South since they have Popasna.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1524399801617592322

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524413089579511808

Sorry Comrade, no luck today, but try try again.

Drone footage of the wrecked Russian attempted Siverskyi Donets crossing:

https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1524435075026374658?s=20&t=XfPiQMLrUN...

Here's Philips P. OBrien's take on this...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1524436190845358083?s=20&t=vJLsa2...

[NOVA Green]

Meant to post something regarding the US DoD briefing form 5/9/22 regarding Russian morale issues during the second phase of the war, including allegations of Russian troops refusing to obey orders to advance to the front, sabotaging their own vehicles, rampant alcohol abuse, etc...

Purportedly the level of dissent even went as far as a Russian BTG Commander refusing to obey orders.

I can certainly image how scenes such as the complete wipe out of a good chunk of a Russian BTG attempting to cross a pontoon bridge will likely only increase such events among the Russian soldiers actually fighting on the front lines, especially now that Ukrainian artillery capacity is starting to ramp up with most of the 155 Howitzers already close to the front lines...

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3481944-pentagon-russian-military-continues-to-struggle-with-poor-morale-refusal-to-obey-orders/

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1523727495149031424?s=20&t=vJLsa2...

For some reason the old Pete Seeger song "The Big Muddy" came to mind, which was originally written as a commentary on the Vietnam War but fundamentally can be used as a metaphor for any commanding officers who lead their troops deliberately into harms way because of commands from above and certainly appears topical within the context of this post.

From the perspective of many of the Russian grunts this is likely FUBAR's as they come and the war in which none of them knew was coming has turned into such as clusterf**k.

Hell wouldn't be surprised if some Russian soldiers were deliberately shooting themselves in order to get away from the front lines...

"The Captain told us to ford that river and that's how it all begun..."

[Storr]

What kind of "soldier" shoots civilians in the back?

https://twitter.com/TheLeadCNN/status/1524525506288398336?s=20&t=YvrUKSgwZAN...

Ah of course, one that wants to loot their business.

[NOVA Green]

So perhaps not as "sexy" or interesting for many as the ground war, but I have been continuing to follow the "Naval War", and here's a really good read from the Naval News about recent activities around Snake Island posted earlier today.

Really good read and totally free, but here are a few selected quotes   

The biggest impact of the loss of the cruiser Moskva is that the northern Black Sea is a safer place for Ukrainian aircraft. Particularly for the Ukrainian Navy’s TB2 drones. This tactical loss could have strategic implications.

Moskva’s role was largely air defense, being a floating double-battery of S300 missiles. In the void left by Moskva, Ukrainian drones have been able to operate effectively against Russian targets. This has had dramatic effects.

Ukraine’s first major move appears to have been to take out the air defenses on the island with a drone strike. A potent SA-15 Tor missile system provided local air defenses, at least in theory. The removal of that system allowed the Ukrainian Navy’s TB2 drones to loiter nearby. The first Russian Navy victims were two Raptor assault boats on May 2.

On May 7 Russia attempted to land a replacement SA-15 missile system on the island. A TB2 drone caught the Pr.11770 Serna Class landing craft in the act, hitting it as it was about to unload. The attack was devastating and the shipwreck blocked the landing spot.

With the air defenses degraded the Russian garrison was subject to successive air strikes by drones and fighter jets. Soon most of the buildings on the island were reduces to rubble. Russia was still operating Raptors in the area but two more were eliminated by a TB2 on May 8. Along with a helicopter landing troops on the island. The island seems unlivable.

It has yet to be seen whether Ukraine will attempt to retake the island. Emotionally there may be a strong motivation to do so. And it could make political and strategic sense.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/05/how-the-russian-navy-is-losing-dominance-the-curse-of-snake-island/

Meanwhile, here's some of the latest geolocation data of Russian ships within the theater of operations posted (7) hours ago.

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1524436026340614146?s=20&t=L25DODp3p...

[The Dowager Mod]

What kind of "soldier" shoots civilians in the back?

https://twitter.com/TheLeadCNN/status/1524525506288398336?s=20&t=YvrUKSgwZAN...

Ah of course, one that wants to loot their business.

Degenerate animals.

[NOVA Green]

So been letting others on this thread cover certain aspects of the Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine a bit more on the military front.

Still, I have been following the stories about campaigns of systematic looting directly at the hands of Russian Military and Political authorities, which even transcends the reporting regarding individual Russian soldiers and even entire military units taking personal items from cell phones, laptops, jewelry,  to washing machines to sell on the black markets in Belarus as the invaders retreated from places such as Kyiv and Sumy..

I have posted about items such as theft of Ukrainian works of art, agricultural vehicles, and even grain.

Now... we have a situation where Turkey has closed the straits as "exit only" for Russian Warships, but is also apparently allowing stolen Ukrainian Grain from the Kherson region to exit?

As many in the Global South are currently facing massive food shortages and inflationary pressures as a direct result of Russia's decision to wage war on Ukraine, AND there are still major stockpiles of Ukrainian Grain even in the ports of Odessa that can't be shipped out, WHY can't we stop the looters (Russian Gvmt) from pilfering their stolen goods and transferring it directly to Syria?

During the Iran-Iraq War in the '80s the US reflagged Kuwaiti Oil vessels and helped protect them with military escorts, along with some other allied nations.

Shiploads of stolen Ukrainian grain have reached the Mediterranean Sea on Russian-flagged vessels bound for the Middle East, a Ukrainian ministry said Tuesday.

“The most likely destination country is Syria,” the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s main intelligence directorate said in an update on stolen grain on social media. “From there, grain can be supplied to other countries in the Middle East.”

In the past week, Egypt has turned away two Russian ships that were carrying stolen Ukrainian wheat, Ruslan Nechai, Ukraine’s chargé d’affaires in Egypt, told The Wall Street Journal on Monday.

The Ukrainian intelligence agency also described convoys transporting stolen grain and seeds to Crimea under Russian military guard. It described large volumes of stolen Ukrainian vegetables being transported to Crimea, the Ukrainian region annexed by Russia in 2014.

Do we need an international community response to provide military convoys for export of Ukrainian grains and safe corridor in order to feed the hungry of the world as a moral imperative?


https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-05-10/card/russia-flagged-ships-transport-stolen-grain-to-syria-ukraine-says-XldruHiMyqmJMUYskuRU

[NOVA Green]

So for anyone interested in buying, looks like one of Putin's Super Yachts might be going on sale in an international auction house in the very near future.

Haven't yet seen the price point or 3-D views of the interiors and quite frankly as one of the few "independently wealthy" members of Atlas, not quite sure this one meets all of my needs, regardless of the firehouse sale and steep discounts with 100% of the proceeds likely going to Ukrainian Gvt. coffers.

A single arrest in a Tuscan port is rarely international news. But the Italian police’s decision to seize Scheherezade last Friday in Marina de Carrara was different.

For one thing, Scheherezade is not a person, but a 459-foot luxury superyacht. And for another, American officials say her true owner, through a haze of intermediaries, is likely to be President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

Police seizures of massive luxury yachts in European ports have become the most visible symbol of the West’s effort to crack down on Putin and his inner circle in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But they are also particularly visible evidence of the Russian ruling class’s corruption. The Scheherezade has gold-plated bathroom fixtures, helicopter landing pads, and a dance floor that converts into a swimming pool. The glitzy boat is a usefully concrete reminder of what Russia experts have said for years: that it is impossible to understand Putin’s regime without understanding the corruption that has by turns created, fueled, shaped, constrained it. And that may, one day, prove to be its undoing.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/11/world/russia-ukraine-war-news/to-keep-putin-and-his-oligarchs-afloat-it-takes-a-system?smid=url-copy

https://twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1522262008187559936?s=20&t=ksemPZFTNBiSi...

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Finland is in the bag to officially join NATO Tomorrow?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to justify his invasion of Ukraine by citing the possibility of NATO expansion, but now, more than 11 weeks into the war, the military alliance could grow by two, with Sweden and Finland poised to apply for membership and Finnish President Sauli Niinisto expected to announce Thursday his position on joining.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/11/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/

After completing a few more steps, Finland will be ready to send its application to join the NATO military alliance, the country’s foreign affairs minister told CNBC Tuesday.

Finland is currently led by a five-party coalition government. Finnish president, Sauli Niinisto, is due to announce his opinion on the country’s membership of NATO Thursday, kicking off a sequence of events that should result in the formal application being sent through.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/10/finland-is-just-days-away-from-applying-for-nato-membership.html

Finnish public support for joining Nato was for years at around 20-25%. But since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it has shot up to a record high of 76%, according to the latest opinion poll. In Sweden, 57% of the population want to join, again far higher than before the war.

Finnish President Sauli Niinisto will set out his position on Nato on Thursday, and the ruling parties of both countries will say what they think over the weekend.

If it is a yes, both parliaments will have clear majorities in favour of membership, and the application process can begin.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61397478

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine has seem continued success in its Kharkiv counter offensive. There are unsupported rumors that Ukraine has retaken Ternova while it is definitely confirmed that they are nearing it. If/when they take it the Izium supply lines are f**ked. In general it’s now the waiting game for the Ukraine counterattacks to officially cut into the Izium lines and force either a Kyiv style collapse or a mass surrender by the Russian troops there

[Woody]

Russians erected a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets. Seems like they are trying for the encirclement of Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk from the North and now the South since they have Popasna.

Sorry Comrade, no luck today, but try try again.

General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine: Russian troops managed to cross Siversky Donets river near Lyman

Source: https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1524605123175063552

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1524543939528769538?cxt=HHwWhICygde...

[NOVA Green]

Russians erected a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets. Seems like they are trying for the encirclement of Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk from the North and now the South since they have Popasna.

Sorry Comrade, no luck today, but try try again.

General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine: Russian troops managed to cross Siversky Donets river near Lyman

Source: https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1524605123175063552

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1524543939528769538?cxt=HHwWhICygde...

No worries... US, UK, and Canadian Artillery systems should be able to send them back home.

Reality is that Russian Military troops are increasingly adopting defensive formations across what is perhaps the longest of front -line combat ever in Europe since WW II.

Doomers can doom, and hopers can hope, but reality is that the Russian Military are getting their asses kicked despite their massive ability to bombard and rubble Ukrainian Cities and all that entails when it comes to the Civilian Population terrorized.

Not quite sure what your bag is dude, but certainly the Russian Invasion / Occupation of Ukraine 2.0 sure as hell doesn't look like any type of success, regardless of your "Schtick"...

Not a hater Sir W. , but still it appears your "counter-narrative" is perhaps a bit more misleading than the reality on the ground?

[Storr]

There we go:

https://twitter.com/TPKanslia/status/1524645891449270273?s=20&t=akBOdWXSJrqV...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Commander of Azov Battalion asks ELON MUSK to negotiate in Azovstal steel works siege.


https://twitter.com/Serjvlk/status/1524506283197579267

[jaichind]

Regarding this business of Hungary going to the dark side and enabling Russia:

1. Why can't the other 39 members of the EU in concert just unilaterally boycott Russian oil?

2. What is the mechanism for kicking an EU member out?

Any real boycott will merely just be buying Russian oil via middlemen when they mix Russian oil with other oil to disguise its content.

So the EU choice is really: Virtue signal by paying a middlemen tax vs just buying Russian oil directly at a lower cost.  Virtue signaling does cost money and most of EU seems to be willing to pay.

In the meantime

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-12/russia-oil-revenue-up-50-this-year-despite-boycott-iea-says

"Russia Oil Revenue Up 50% This Year Despite Boycott, IEA Says"

To be fair I do think the second half of 2022 will get tougher for Russia as it reorients its energy trade which will come with significant cost to Russia.

[Woody]

Russians erected a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets. Seems like they are trying for the encirclement of Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk from the North and now the South since they have Popasna.

Sorry Comrade, no luck today, but try try again.

General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine: Russian troops managed to cross Siversky Donets river near Lyman

Source: https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1524605123175063552

Not a hater Sir W. , but still it appears your "counter-narrative" is perhaps a bit more misleading than the reality on the ground?

?? Huh

If the UA government is not a good source to cite for you when it's time to confirm where they are retreating/what is going on the ground... then wtf is?

Also, literally everything you just mentioned above that comment has not been cited nor remotely mentioned anywhere.

[Woody]

In other news, Russian forces have started to directly assault Sieverodonetsk from the North-West now that Voievodivka (Voedovka) has fallen.

As per the General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine the Russians has "limited success" in their offensive:
https://t.me/lumsrc/1474

Map of the outskirts so you can get a picture in your head where everything is:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Mr_Hornblower/status/1524413771858464768

[Woody]

The pontoon bridge that was destroyed was to the north of Bilohorivka. Where the Russians had success crossing the Siversky Donets was to the east of Lyman/Yampil. Confirmed by Livemap and literally the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

I really wish you guys would stop the conclusions.. I talk about what's going on in Kharkiv & genocide going on in the occupied territories, civilians, unlawful annexations, etc.. and I cite my sources now when it's beyond reasonable doubt (geolocation and other 3rd parties) or it's either confirmed by both sides (UA General Staff and RU)

So how on earth is that not good enough?

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1524625525930663937
https://mobile.twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1524645124772356097
Ukraine counter attacks continue to yield success and Russia causalities rates are increasing daily

[Storr]

Based on the low numbers and that your average soldier [supposedly] isn't allowed to carry phones with them, these are probably the phones of officers. The lack of phones in the Mariupol area is likely due to the destruction of the telecommunication infrastructure there:

Translation:

"This is what the concentration of Russian mobile subscribers in Ukraine looks like."

"I understand that these data were relevant for March."

https://twitter.com/ua_industrial/status/1524687197382791168?s=20&t=N_7UkoVo...

[Storr]

In other news, Russian forces have started to directly assault Sieverodonetsk from the North-West now that Voievodivka (Voedovka) has fallen.

As per the General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine the Russians has "limited success" in their offensive:
https://t.me/lumsrc/1474

Map of the outskirts so you can get a picture in your head where everything is:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Mr_Hornblower/status/1524413771858464768

https://twitter.com/Tomthescribe/status/1524718125085868032?s=20&t=N_7UkoVoZ...

[Omega21]

The pontoon bridge that was destroyed was to the north of Bilohorivka. Where the Russians had success crossing the Siversky Donets was to the east of Lyman/Yampil. Confirmed by Livemap and literally the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

I really wish you guys would stop the conclusions.. I talk about what's going on in Kharkiv & genocide going on in the occupied territories, civilians, unlawful annexations, etc.. and I cite my sources now when it's beyond reasonable doubt (geolocation and other 3rd parties) or it's either confirmed by both sides (UA General Staff and RU)

So how on earth is that not good enough?

Some people see

"Russia has successfully captured X & eliminated unit Y"

and internally translate that to:

"Yes DADDY Putin take care of those Banderovite Nazis, glory to Mother Russia!!!!"

Some people just can't handle objective info with a cool head.

They support Ukraine, therefore they only want to see positive news. If they come across something other than Russian tanks launching their turrets to the ISS, then it must be because it's Russian propaganda or you're a Russian shill.

All in all, no need to justify yourself for sharing OSINT info & statements from either side.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/OTregub/status/1524698941434048513?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...
Supposed accounts of citizens of the Russian Federation moving to Kherson / Document from the Russian-installed military government. Would be a Crimea-redux.

[DINGO Joe]

Russians erected a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets. Seems like they are trying for the encirclement of Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk from the North and now the South since they have Popasna.

Sorry Comrade, no luck today, but try try again.

General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine: Russian troops managed to cross Siversky Donets river near Lyman

Source: https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1524605123175063552

The Girkin tweet says they crossed, tried to hold the south bank and 12 hrs later they went back.  Or at least some of them.