Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[It’s so Joever]

This probably has already been posted, but Popasna has fallen. This is a pretty big f**king deal and makes it more plausible to cut off Severodonetsk.

It doesn’t really matter as the overall encirclement can’t work with the Izium branch facing the type of setbacks it has. I really don’t get why you are always dooming on this stuff when time and time again Ukraine has played their cards right in this battle and anytime Russia has taken a town like this it’s because Ukraine let them do it as they are willing to trade land for stretching out Russia’s line and inflicting high causalities

You are being disingenuous here. First of all, the Izium salient is not at this huge risk of encirclement yet like some have speculated, yes the counteroffensives have had success but so far they have been limited. The real successes were in Kharkiv area. Secondly, the Ukrainians fought hard for Popasna. This wasn’t a city they wanted to give up, it was one they had to give up.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This probably has already been posted, but Popasna has fallen. This is a pretty big f**king deal and makes it more plausible to cut off Severodonetsk.

It doesn’t really matter as the overall encirclement can’t work with the Izium branch facing the type of setbacks it has. I really don’t get why you are always dooming on this stuff when time and time again Ukraine has played their cards right in this battle and anytime Russia has taken a town like this it’s because Ukraine let them do it as they are willing to trade land for stretching out Russia’s line and inflicting high causalities

The Russian advance in the Donbas has been slow and uneven, but it’s undeniable that they’ve taken significant and populous towns in the last few weeks. These aren’t offset by unclear, marginal Ukrainian gains around Kherson, and although Russia does seem to be ceding significant territory in Kharkiv, the ISW assessed this wasn’t critical to their Donbas offensive. It’s also not important to their strategic goals, unless they still intend to move immediately from a Donbas offensive into an attempted conquest of all Ukraine.

I do buy the reports that Ukraine consistently retreats to ‘more defensible positions’, but these don’t stay more defensible forever under artillery barrages and air strikes, which is why they keep losing ground.

[The Dowager Mod]

Badass.
"As 15-year-old Liza Chernichenko pressed on the gas pedal while frantically driving through the Donetsk region, she realized she had been shot in both legs, but with four others in the car, including two men bleeding profusely, she kept driving, even as Russian forces continued firing."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-escaping-war-1.6445840

[Hindsight was 2020]

This probably has already been posted, but Popasna has fallen. This is a pretty big f**king deal and makes it more plausible to cut off Severodonetsk.

It doesn’t really matter as the overall encirclement can’t work with the Izium branch facing the type of setbacks it has. I really don’t get why you are always dooming on this stuff when time and time again Ukraine has played their cards right in this battle and anytime Russia has taken a town like this it’s because Ukraine let them do it as they are willing to trade land for stretching out Russia’s line and inflicting high causalities

You are being disingenuous here. First of all, the Izium salient is not at this huge risk of encirclement yet like some have speculated, yes the counteroffensives have had success but so far they have been limited. The real successes were in Kharkiv area. Secondly, the Ukrainians fought hard for Popasna. This wasn’t a city they wanted to give up, it was one they had to give up.

I didn’t say that though, I said “setbacks”. Which they are, they are moving at a snail’s pace while losing a lot of men and equipment while their supply lines are at greater risks of being hit. An even if the Kharkiv in the here and now don’t get encircled they do face that risk if the Kharkiv and other counterattacks keep going. So either they stay as is or they have to shift men and resources up north to protect their supply lines and stall out the already slow moving offensive

[lfromnj]

https://web.archive.org/web/20220508040534/https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/05/07/russias-economy-is-back-on-its-feet

Russia's economy is back on its feet.

[CumbrianLefty]

Putin didn't use today to drop a nuke, then?

How surprising.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Putin didn't use today to drop a nuke, then?

How surprising.

Today's speech and parade implied that Putin really hasn't much of a plan going forward.

He obviously doesn't want to to withdraw from Ukraine, but he apparently also doesn't want to escalate (he didn't even threaten to use nukes today) or start with a general mobilization. So things seem to be frozen in the status quo for the time being.

[Sir Mohamed]

Putin didn't use today to drop a nuke, then?

How surprising.

Today's speech and parade implied that Putin really hasn't much of a plan going forward.

He obviously doesn't want to to withdraw from Ukraine, but he apparently also doesn't want to escalate (he didn't even threaten to use nukes today) or start with a general mobilization. So things seem to be frozen in the status quo for the time being.

Yup, I guess he'll focus on Donbas and cut off Ukraine off the Black Sea coast and declare victory, while a continued hybrid warfare against the remaining Ukraine keeps going.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://web.archive.org/web/20220508040534/https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/05/07/russias-economy-is-back-on-its-feet

Russia's economy is back on its feet.

OPEC+1 moment.

US FoPo re: Saudi Arabia has featured some of the worst, most unappreciated blunders in recent history.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

So nothing has happened to the Crimean Bridge as far as I can tell, right?

[DaleCooper]

Putin didn't use today to drop a nuke, then?

How surprising.

Today's speech and parade implied that Putin really hasn't much of a plan going forward.

He obviously doesn't want to to withdraw from Ukraine, but he apparently also doesn't want to escalate (he didn't even threaten to use nukes today) or start with a general mobilization. So things seem to be frozen in the status quo for the time being.

I know these sh-thole dictatorships can often function seemingly indefinitely just through inertia, but I imagine at this point even Putin must realize that he's going to start losing control sooner or later, if he hasn't already. If he's unwilling to withdraw from Ukraine and isn't even willing to put up an impressive fake plan then I would think that would put him in an even weaker position.

[DINGO Joe]

I don't particularly think anyone here has much knowledge of military strategy so I don't  comment or feel the desire to debate anyone's hot takes here about the map.  And of course, feel free to ignore mine.

Regarding Donbas  and any "encirclement"  I tend to believe Igor Girkin (who of course has his own bone to pick with Putin)who said a month ago that the Russian army is too few and too slow to encircle anybody.


As for Pompasas, it took the Russians with the Wagner group 3 weeks to claw thru a town of just under 20,000.  OK.   Ukraine does have home field advantage so maybe they do have better fortified positions.

The Ukrainian advances around Izyium and Kharkiv have still been done mainly by the mobile guerilla style warfare that exploit the thin Russian lines and are able to execute considerable attrition of Russia forces. 

The Ukraines still haven't assembled a true offensive army with artillery, tanks, and infantry all functioning forward at once and given that would be a new type of warfare for them they may still be weeks or months away from doing that.  But the Ukraines are mobilizing and the Russians aren't

[DINGO Joe]

A brief history of the Russian occupation of Snake Island


https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1523353505120940033

[Storr]

So nothing has happened to the Crimean Bridge as far as I can tell, right?

That seemed like an obvious bluff and/or distraction by Ukraine. There’s no way they’d publicly announce the exact time of an attack on such an important and visible target, giving the Russians time to prepare.

[NOVA Green]

Russian Frigate The Makarov apparently spotted today, heading back to Sevastapol (?)...


https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1523723818422120449?s=20&t=68lqUHt-k...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1523732519203471360

[Logical]

Interesting article about Russian sympathizers close to the frontlines (yes they still exist).
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61372382

A clash of loyalties is dividing opinion among residents in Bakhmut - a town on the front line in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region.

Sometimes it slips out as a whisper. More often, it is hidden behind euphemisms and shrugs - and carefully ambivalent replies. And then, once in a while, a fiercely pro-Russian sentiment is simply blurted out, like the crack of a gunshot, here in the rolling green hills of the Donbas.

"This is Russian territory. Ukraine is the occupier here," said a man in overalls, standing with a group of council workers. They had been clearing weeds in Bakhmut - a Ukrainian town currently within easy earshot of Russian artillery.

And the man was not alone in his apparent contempt for Ukraine's territorial integrity. Beside him, 65-year-old Yelena merely couched her views in more ambiguous terms.

"I don't know Putin personally, so I can't tell you what I think of him. But I don't see Russia as the enemy. We all lived together in the Soviet Union. So, let's see what happens [if Russia occupies the town]," she said.

"Putin is a clever guy, a clever KGB man," said an 80-year-old retired engineer, as she sat in the kitchen of a local cafeteria peeling potatoes. If Russians seized the town, it would "make no difference to me," she whispered, before falling quiet when a colleague came into the room.

"I'm a creation of the Soviet Union. We all lived together in those days and I have relatives everywhere. I'm not going to tell you what I think of Putin," said another elderly ethnic-Russian woman who was part of the work group preparing to plant rows of young trees at the entrance to Bakhmut.

Some Ukrainians here have brushed aside these pro-Russian comments as the harmless grumblings of an out-of-touch generation - of a handful of elderly pensioners who are reluctant to leave their homes, and whose opinions are unlikely to have any significant impact on the course of this war.

But in other parts of Ukraine, recently liberated from Russian occupation, there is evidence that collaborators may have actively assisted the Kremlin's troops. And today, in front-line towns like Bakhmut, there are concerns that pro-Russian sentiment could pose a real risk, particularly if it is shared by officials in local administrations.

"These guys are trying to have it both ways - win or lose," said a local businessman, Dmytro Kononets, describing what he claimed was the attitude of some figures in the town council.

He contrasted the relatively low-key public comments of the town's Mayor, Reva Oleksiy, to the loudly defiant tone struck by many of Ukraine's younger regional governors and public officials, and asked why the council was busy employing people to dig up weeds when they could be digging trenches instead.

"Obviously, they don't really want to prevent [Russia from seizing the town]. It's like they're just pretending. It's just ridiculous," said Kononets, adding that he knew many locals who got all their news from Russian television and believed "that nonsense".

Recall that Izyum fell because an Ephialtes betrayed Ukrainian positions to the Russian army.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/02/eastern-ukraine-frontline-scene/

Preparations extend beyond fortifying defensive positions. Deep inside territory held by Ukraine, its security services have stepped up efforts to identify suspected collaborators and Russian intelligence assets operating within the region. Several have been captured.

The Ukrainian security services have found them with equipment to document coordinates of Ukrainian military positions. Officials found evidence that they have helped Russian forces adjust their artillery fire in real time. In addition, the Secret Service of Ukraine has arrested agents providing images and videos for Russian social media propaganda.

Kyrylenko said focusing attention on those agents ensures that Ukrainians “won’t get hit with a knife in the back.” He has suspended civilian rule and imposed military control in 11 districts near Kramatorsk previously controlled by the opposition party. On Tuesday, he submitted a request to President Volodymyr Zelensky to add another.

Since the start of the war in late February, the Secret Service of Ukraine has identified more than 550 suspected collaborators in the Donetsk region accused of treason. Many are in territory controlled by the Russian military. A Russian ballistic missile strike on March 6 obliterated the regional offices of the Ukrainian intelligence agency, further complicating the hunt for Russian collaborators. The powerful explosion also destroyed a nearby kindergarten.

In some cases, collaborators have included local government officials who have provided actionable intelligence to Russian forces, shelling neighbors and friends trapped inside their own towns, Ukrainian officials said. They have also used their detailed knowledge of the local terrain to help advancing Russian forces.

In Izyum, Strelnik said, a city council member from the opposition party guided a Russian armored column down an unguarded stretch of road to avoid the Ukrainian defensive positions. Ukrainian forces defending the city were encircled by the betrayal, he said. After a week of heavy fighting, Russians controlled the town.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1523744830962429952

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The sinking of the Makarov wasn’t claimed by UkrMOD. Although there might have been some truth to the rumours that it was hit, the frigate is now back in action.

https://www.twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1523723818422120449

It also looks like Russia is determined to contest Snake Island, or at least project the intention to contest it. Why else would they put a landing craft next to a hot zone?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ursula von der Leyen flew to Hungary today to get Orban on board for the oil embargo.


https://mobile.twitter.com/business/status/1523716701476601863


https://mobile.twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1523725927834075136

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine has retaken the towns of Verkhnyi Saltiv, Zamulivka, Bayrak and Rubizhne in the Kharkiv region meaning the Russian supply line to Izium is now completely in Ukraine line of fire 💪

[Storr]

The sinking of the Makarov wasn’t claimed by UkrMOD. Although there might have been some truth to the rumours that it was hit, the frigate is now back in action.

https://www.twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1523723818422120449

It also looks like Russia is determined to contest Snake Island, or at least project the intention to contest it. Why else would they put a landing craft next to a hot zone?

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1523722945624895488?s=20&t=tILrA2Nijbk...

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/ItsBorys/status/1523664324950036480

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The sinking of the Makarov wasn’t claimed by UkrMOD. Although there might have been some truth to the rumours that it was hit, the frigate is now back in action.

https://www.twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1523723818422120449
It also looks like Russia is determined to contest Snake Island, or at least project the intention to contest it. Why else would they put a landing craft next to a hot zone?

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1523722945624895488?s=20&t=tILrA2Nijbk...

This is probably true, but frigates lobbing cruise missiles in the Black Sea surely aren’t the most stealthy ships to begin with (OSINT picks them up pretty regularly), and Ukraine doesn’t appear to be able to do that much about them at the moment. They have to make a presumably small (if not non-zero) number of Neptune missiles count, because the hype about anti-ship missiles being sent to Ukraine hasn’t gone anywhere just yet.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/ItsBorys/status/1523664324950036480