Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Buryatia has a population of 984,511 based on Russian government estimates. 89 servicemen killed is 0.000904002% of the region's population. If that ratio is applied to Russia as a whole (this is of course going to be inaccurate, but gives us an interesting ballpark guesstimate), which has a population of 145,478,097 (including Crimea), we get 13,151 Russians soldiers killed so far in the war. That number seems plausible to me, especially if Ukraine was telling the truth when claiming it has 7,000 Russian bodies in storage.

The 20 dead from Irkutsk Oblast results in 1,210 Russian dead, which is suspiciously close to the most recent Kremlin death toll released on March 25th of 1,351. The Kremlin has left it to regional governments to release individual death notices, so this is probably a case of Buryatia being more transparent than its neighbor. This may be due to the presence of the Buddhist Mongolian Buryat minority which is about 30% of the Republic's population.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1513941770597457927?s=20&t=wqMcTijRxsJzIN...

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-death-toll-1351/31770672.html (Kremling death count article)

[Astatine]

[...]
While Germany is not doing enough in opinion, I don't think this is approriate. Not just has Steinmeier shown self-awareness in recent weeks, he's the head of state of a country that has still given more aid than any other.

Disagree. Frank-Walter Steinmeier is the representative of the failed German Eastern policy of the last years. His Steinmeier formula was a gift to Russian interests, he was parts of both governments which issued NordStream 1 & 2 against the warning of Eastern Europe and just roughly 2 years after the annexation of Crimea he was talking in Yekaterinburg about the importance of Russia-Germany relations (where he received an honor doctorate before).
One can argue about that Ukrainian ambassador Andriy Melnyk is somewhat abrasive, but he has every to be so after none of his warnings and messages were heard over the last years - Steinmeier even complained about Melnyk in 2019 (or 2020?) to Zelenskyi which is an absolute disgraceful move - And as proven, Melnyk was right and Steinmeier was wrong.

Wulff resigned as President for borrowing 400 € to a friend - If Germany wants to be taken seriously again - because right now, Germany's reputation is in the sh**tter, and deservingly so - Steinmeier should just quit.

Also, compared to other Eastern European countries such as Estonia or Poland, Germany's help was rather abysmal and when it comes to sanctions, it was Germany that blocked strengthening then - Remember the Swift discussion?

[Torie]

Here is a depressing article that suggests Germany is bailing out already. Getting cheap energy to maintain their high standard of living trumps all else.

"But six weeks later, the applause has largely ceased. Even as images of atrocities emerge from Ukraine since the invasion by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, Mr. Scholz has ruled out an immediate oil and gas embargo, saying it would be too costly. He is dragging his feet on sending 100 armored vehicles to Ukraine, saying that Germany must not “rush ahead.” There are new debates in the ruling coalition about just how to go forward with the massive task Mr. Scholz has laid out, let alone how fast."

One can't "rush ahead" on sending 100 armored vehicles to Ukraine as if they were nukes or something? Pathetic.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/12/world/europe/germany-russia-ukraine-war.html

[Astatine]

[...]

I’m very ill-informed about Ukrainian politics beyond the absolute basics. Why is Tymoshenko so distrusted? Is just a general rejection of the old political class or did she do something?

I guess because after all - from what I've read - she is quite a populist without strong beliefs, at least she doesn't seem genuine. Also, corruption and shady deals from the 90s when she was a businesswoman in the gas industry - which gave her the nickname "Gas Princess".

Yet, her approvals are quite normal. I remember seeing a poll somewhen (if I find it, I'll post it) during Poroshenko times I think that had her at ~15% approvals - She was comparatively popular back then. Seems like Ukrainians just dislike their political elites and the numbers right now are an absolute exception due to the circumstances, and if my memory is correct, even Yulia had a very slight approval bump.

[President Johnson]

[...]
While Germany is not doing enough in opinion, I don't think this is approriate. Not just has Steinmeier shown self-awareness in recent weeks, he's the head of state of a country that has still given more aid than any other.

Disagree. Frank-Walter Steinmeier is the representative of the failed German Eastern policy of the last years. His Steinmeier formula was a gift to Russian interests, he was parts of both governments which issued NordStream 1 & 2 against the warning of Eastern Europe and just roughly 2 years after the annexation of Crimea he was talking in Yekaterinburg about the importance of Russia-Germany relations (where he received an honor doctorate before).
One can argue about that Ukrainian ambassador Andriy Melnyk is somewhat abrasive, but he has every to be so after none of his warnings and messages were heard over the last years - Steinmeier even complained about Melnyk in 2019 (or 2020?) to Zelenskyi which is an absolute disgraceful move - And as proven, Melnyk was right and Steinmeier was wrong.

Wulff resigned as President for borrowing 400 € to a friend - If Germany wants to be taken seriously again - because right now, Germany's reputation is in the sh**tter, and deservingly so - Steinmeier should just quit.

Also, compared to other Eastern European countries such as Estonia or Poland, Germany's help was rather abysmal and when it comes to sanctions, it was Germany that blocked strengthening then - Remember the Swift discussion?

It's not that Steinmeier was wrong, which he admitted, I still consider it disrespectful to declare a the head of state of an ally that gave billions in aid persona non grata. It's not very wise diplomatically and may undermine the cause in the long run. I have a feeling this decision is largely viewed negative here across the political spectrum.

And Melnyk, well, while I understand his frustration, he should at least tone down his rhetoric. If he wants more pressure on leaders, fine, but then he needs to win public support. And I'm afraid the he accomplishes the opposite here.

[emailking]

Apparently Biden used the g word (genocide) in his remarks in Iowa just now.

[Astatine]

[...]
While Germany is not doing enough in opinion, I don't think this is approriate. Not just has Steinmeier shown self-awareness in recent weeks, he's the head of state of a country that has still given more aid than any other.

Disagree. Frank-Walter Steinmeier is the representative of the failed German Eastern policy of the last years. His Steinmeier formula was a gift to Russian interests, he was parts of both governments which issued NordStream 1 & 2 against the warning of Eastern Europe and just roughly 2 years after the annexation of Crimea he was talking in Yekaterinburg about the importance of Russia-Germany relations (where he received an honor doctorate before).
One can argue about that Ukrainian ambassador Andriy Melnyk is somewhat abrasive, but he has every to be so after none of his warnings and messages were heard over the last years - Steinmeier even complained about Melnyk in 2019 (or 2020?) to Zelenskyi which is an absolute disgraceful move - And as proven, Melnyk was right and Steinmeier was wrong.

Wulff resigned as President for borrowing 400 € to a friend - If Germany wants to be taken seriously again - because right now, Germany's reputation is in the sh**tter, and deservingly so - Steinmeier should just quit.

Also, compared to other Eastern European countries such as Estonia or Poland, Germany's help was rather abysmal and when it comes to sanctions, it was Germany that blocked strengthening then - Remember the Swift discussion?

It's not that Steinmeier was wrong, which he admitted, I still consider it disrespectful to declare a the head of state of an ally that gave billions in aid persona non grata. It's not very wise diplomatically and may undermine the cause in the long run. I have a feeling this decision is largely viewed negative here across the political spectrum.

And Melnyk, well, while I understand his frustration, he should at least tone down his rhetoric. If he wants more pressure on leaders, fine, but then he needs to win public support. And I'm afraid the he accomplishes the opposite here.

Tone policing, self-satisfaction and a certain form of arrogance ("Consequences for thee, not for me" - forcing Southern Europe into austerity while avoiding to suffer from effects of the own mistakes, decelereting sanctions, blocking embargoes on certain fossil fuels while refusing to delay the nuclear phase-out etc. etc. etc.) is exactly what makes Germany isolated on the international stage right now, and deservingly so.

Edit: This n-tv comment sums it up pretty well https://www.n-tv.de/politik/politik_kommentare/Selenskyj-hat-gute-Gruende-Steinmeier-nicht-zu-empfangen-article23265125.html

[Storr]

Glenn Greenwald uncovers insidious NATO conspiracy: the US doesn't want Russia to win

Glenn, you know what would be the quickest way for the war to end? Putin withdrawing his army from Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1513967417604689925?s=20&t=093TsguChw2...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1513968423151222792?s=20&t=093TsguChw2...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Glenn Greenwald uncovers insidious NATO conspiracy: the US doesn't want Russia to win

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1513967417604689925?s=20&t=093TsguChw2...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1513968423151222792?s=20&t=093TsguChw2...

Glenn Greenwald does weird stuff sometimes.


https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1513884133470228481

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1513992753851551751?t=bAWvrqfIzRvakVC...

Shows that Kyiv actually wants to get something done instead of empty words provided by a figurehead.
Let's see if Scholz delivers, because the reports that the Chancellory is blocking and delaying weapon exports + his general performance during the war lowered my opinion of him significantly.

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/MarkUrban01/status/1513532793925603338?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Glenn Greenwald uncovers insidious NATO conspiracy: the US doesn't want Russia to win

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1513967417604689925?s=20&t=093TsguChw2...
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1513968423151222792?s=20&t=093TsguChw2...

Glenn Greenwald does weird stuff sometimes.


https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/1513884133470228481

"sometimes"?

[Logical]

Zelensky offers Putin a deal.
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1513998980266528778

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1513992753851551751?t=bAWvrqfIzRvakVC...

Shows that Kyiv actually wants to get something done instead of empty words provided by a figurehead.
Let's see if Scholz delivers, because the reports that the Chancellory is blocking and delaying weapon exports + his general performance during the war lowered my opinion of him significantly.

Olaf Scholz is a very peculiar man. Sometimes I wonder why he even wanted to become Chancellor in the first place. He often appears so absent, silent, and apathetic. Habeck and Baerbock from the Greens largely seem to be the running the government on Ukraine/Russia in his place, while Lindner and Buschmann from the FDP apparently do the same on COVID. Unfortunately, you still need Scholz' approval to sign off on things.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/bensiegel/status/1514016045287325700

[Frodo]

Essentially these 'special filtration camps' are way-stations before the unfortunate Ukrainian civilians are sent to the 21st century version of the Soviet gulags:

The Kremlin plans to send 100,000 Ukrainians to Siberia and the Arctic Circle, report says, as Zelenskyy warns of 'filtration camps' for captured people

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1514000767316901888

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1514000767316901888

Helicopters are where it’s at.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1514000767316901888

Helicopters are where it’s at.

Unfortunate because:

https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1514034271568203780

[Splash]

That said, the Ukrainians seem to be pretty adept at striking Russian armored columns using indirect fire from artillery, so any additional resources in that realm will help.

[Isaak]

[...]
While Germany is not doing enough in opinion, I don't think this is approriate. Not just has Steinmeier shown self-awareness in recent weeks, he's the head of state of a country that has still given more aid than any other.

Disagree. Frank-Walter Steinmeier is the representative of the failed German Eastern policy of the last years. His Steinmeier formula was a gift to Russian interests, he was parts of both governments which issued NordStream 1 & 2 against the warning of Eastern Europe and just roughly 2 years after the annexation of Crimea he was talking in Yekaterinburg about the importance of Russia-Germany relations (where he received an honor doctorate before).
One can argue about that Ukrainian ambassador Andriy Melnyk is somewhat abrasive, but he has every to be so after none of his warnings and messages were heard over the last years - Steinmeier even complained about Melnyk in 2019 (or 2020?) to Zelenskyi which is an absolute disgraceful move - And as proven, Melnyk was right and Steinmeier was wrong.

Wulff resigned as President for borrowing 400 € to a friend - If Germany wants to be taken seriously again - because right now, Germany's reputation is in the sh**tter, and deservingly so - Steinmeier should just quit.

Also, compared to other Eastern European countries such as Estonia or Poland, Germany's help was rather abysmal and when it comes to sanctions, it was Germany that blocked strengthening then - Remember the Swift discussion?

It's not that Steinmeier was wrong, which he admitted, I still consider it disrespectful to declare a the head of state of an ally that gave billions in aid persona non grata. It's not very wise diplomatically and may undermine the cause in the long run. I have a feeling this decision is largely viewed negative here across the political spectrum.

And Melnyk, well, while I understand his frustration, he should at least tone down his rhetoric. If he wants more pressure on leaders, fine, but then he needs to win public support. And I'm afraid the he accomplishes the opposite here.

Agree! Couldn't believe it until I saw the link. This is a major diplomatic affront and the most stupid thing the Zelensky administration could have done. It really does not matter if you believe Steinmeier is/was pro-Russia or whatever - this is completely meaningless. He still is the (a) highest representative of (b) the arguably most powerful EU member state, and (c) a seasoned diplomat who has already admitted that he was mistaken in the past. So you are supposed to treat him with respect. This is a short-sighted and childish maneuver that will only complicate German-Ukrainian relations.

As does Melnyk. The guy behaves like a colonial officer and his hyperaggressive tone is evidently counterproductive. I know of quite a few people who have formed a negative opinion about Ukraine just because of him.

[Person Man]

Essentially these 'special filtration camps' are way-stations before the unfortunate Ukrainian civilians are sent to the 21st century version of the Soviet gulags:

The Kremlin plans to send 100,000 Ukrainians to Siberia and the Arctic Circle, report says, as Zelenskyy warns of 'filtration camps' for captured people

They are Nazis. Like I said, if Ukraine gets conquered, I’m probably not voting for Biden again.

[Person Man]

That said, the Ukrainians seem to be pretty adept at striking Russian armored columns using indirect fire from artillery, so any additional resources in that realm will help.

The fact that Ukrainians are so much more adept at these smaller systems makes them that much easier to maintain.

[NOVA Green]

Update from Kherson:

Four prisons in the Russian-occupied city of Kherson in southern Ukraine are running out of food for inmates, the city’s mayor said on Tuesday, adding that he feared that unpaid guards could walk off the job and that inmates affiliated with pro-Russian separatist groups could be freed by Russian forces.

Since the Russian takeover of the city in early March, Ukraine’s treasury has blocked funds for public services to keep the money out of the hands of the Russian military, resulting in a situation that the mayor, Igor Kolykhaiev, described as “impossible.”

Mr. Kolykhaiev, a former member of Parliament, said that food was available in Khersen, but that prices had risen by up to 80 percent, and medicines were in short supply. He said that Russian soldiers were looting homes in villages surrounding the city, taking almost everything they could, including electrical appliances.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/12/world/ukraine-russia-war-news/khersons-mayor-fears-a-catastrophe-at-prison-holding-inmates-affiliated-with-pro-russia-separatists

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Heroes:

It shouldn't be held against them if they surrender. They've already lasted nearly seven times longer than the fabled "Brest Fortress" Soviet defenders of 1941.  

How many Ukrainian soldiers are risk of being captured in Mariupol?