Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

Allegedly, a munitions dump exploded in Belgorod, Russia. There are unconfirmed reports that a Ukrainian missile struck it but an accident resulting from the mishandling of the ammo may just be as likely.

Ukraine has missiles that go that far?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1508787161021227012
https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1508787898065342466
https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1508827456626647043

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1508834362162302981

[ctherainbow]

So today I was chilling on Twitch, and a Russian propaganda bot hopped into chat talking about how they were “14 years old from Donbas and had been bombed for 8 years by Ukraine”.  Dumbass got banned because it was an 18+ stream.    

But seriously, the cyber warfare in 2022 is… strange.

[Logical]

Allegedly, a munitions dump exploded in Belgorod, Russia. There are unconfirmed reports that a Ukrainian missile struck it but an accident resulting from the mishandling of the ammo may just be as likely.

Ukraine has missiles that go that far?

Yes. Upgraded Ukrainian Tochkas has a maximum range of up to 120-140 kms. Belgorod is just across the border from Kharkiv.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1508827938732625920

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1508827938732625920

Of course, Putin just wants to buy time to weigh his options and fool everybody. "Well, we tried, but that drug addicted Neonazi Zelensky didn't meet all our demands at once."

[Torie]

"US officials make clear the pullback is the direct result of Russia’s failure to make further gains around Kyiv, thwarting its plan to quickly encircle and take the capital. Moreover, Russian forces that withdraw from the north will likely deploy to other parts of Ukraine."

My speculation based on nothing is that Putin is pulling the troops out before they are rendered ineffective or surrender to move things along better in achieving the land-bridge with Crimea, and then Putin tries to get some sort of ceasefire. Maybe he agrees to pull troops out outside Dombass and the land-bridge area, or maybe not.

The problem though with this long term stalemate scenario, is that it also means long term sanctions, together with Western companies cancelling Russia long time. Ukraine is not going to cede Putin his land bridge for any deal. So I wonder how sustainable that strategy is for Putin. Losing 40% of his revenue from energy sales, and Russia not selling much of anything else, and cut off from high tech and parts replacements, so the gears slowly wind down, just does not seem workable to me. Economic autarky in a very high tech world that is largely elsewhere, just does not work as well as it did in the good old days.

What am I missing here?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1508890536203231236

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/MaxBoot/status/1508879355182731272
https://twitter.com/selectedwisdom/status/1508864025504927751

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1508904940181372936

[Storr]

How do you forget two members of your squad?

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1508870274447519745?s=20&t=plcJpMI__nT...

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1508904940181372936

This sounds like Russia is reverting back to some form of its original plan for the "special military operation" before it had been scaled up (by Putin?) at the last minute prior to the invasion... as far as we can tell.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Now that a peace deal where Ukraine will swear neutrality and possibly give up more has become a realistic possibility, it will be interesting to see how this thread reacts. If posters turn against the agreement and advocate for continued war, then it shows that they were warmongering from the start and that they are willing to fight for Western interests down to the last Ukrainian man.

And if it doesn't, will you admit you were wrong?

[Dereich]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1508904940181372936

This sounds like Russia is reverting back to some form of its original plan for the "special military operation" before it had been scaled up (by Putin?) at the last minute prior to the invasion... as far as we can tell.

I doubt this was ever the "original" plan. As early as the 3rd post in this thread, way back in November, the US was talking about concerning Russian troop buildups in the town of Yelnya near the Belorussian border. Yelnya would be much closer to Chernihiv and Kyiv than it would be to Donetsk.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1508878823185690637?s=20&t=8-J3GsseU2U...

Most upvoted comment, 936 times: "Another Khasavyurt agreement... Congratulations. Again windbags sold our guys"

There is some major hate in the comments, but also some pathetic coping:

"I hope that this is a multi-move on the part of Putin, otherwise the Russian Federation is waiting for the Maidan and the collapse of the country into parts. So betray the people, the military and people who hoped for liberation from Kyiv. After such a drain they do not live."

"Kyiv was not originally needed. The task was to "press" him. And no one is withdrawing troops from there. There is almost no supply there, and there is no point in destroying the historic city. Now the whole scenario will be from the eastern bank of the Dnieper, and to the south. But this, by the way, also means such a gesture: you see, we go forward, but you recognize the Crimea, the south and the southeast."

"No need to panic. there are still not so many forces near Kiev to storm, now we need to clean up the Donbass and all this direction. To be objective, everything was done correctly, only presented under the sauce that it was a gesture of goodwill. Not idiots are sitting in our General Staff, and Putin V.V. definitely not an idiot"

" don't panic. If in the Kiev direction we go on the defensive in the occupied sectors and finish off the enemy in the Kharkov, Southern and Donbas directions, then this is the right decision. The main forces of the enemy are concentrated there, and the sooner we destroy them, the sooner the war will end. So I think if that's the case, then management is doing the right thing."

[This last one make me laugh out loud.]

"didn’t think that I would ever say this, but maybe it would be better for Kadyrov to lead the military operation, maybe things would go faster with less of our losses, otherwise it becomes like a desire to keep a good face on a bad game"

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1508878823185690637?s=20&t=8-J3GsseU2U...

Most upvoted comment, 936 times: "Another Khasavyurt agreement... Congratulations. Again windbags sold our guys"

There is some major hate in the comments, but also some pathetic coping:

"I hope that this is a multi-move on the part of Putin, otherwise the Russian Federation is waiting for the Maidan and the collapse of the country into parts. So betray the people, the military and people who hoped for liberation from Kyiv. After such a drain they do not live."

"Kyiv was not originally needed. The task was to "press" him. And no one is withdrawing troops from there. There is almost no supply there, and there is no point in destroying the historic city. Now the whole scenario will be from the eastern bank of the Dnieper, and to the south. But this, by the way, also means such a gesture: you see, we go forward, but you recognize the Crimea, the south and the southeast."

"No need to panic. there are still not so many forces near Kiev to storm, now we need to clean up the Donbass and all this direction. To be objective, everything was done correctly, only presented under the sauce that it was a gesture of goodwill. Not idiots are sitting in our General Staff, and Putin V.V. definitely not an idiot"

" don't panic. If in the Kiev direction we go on the defensive in the occupied sectors and finish off the enemy in the Kharkov, Southern and Donbas directions, then this is the right decision. The main forces of the enemy are concentrated there, and the sooner we destroy them, the sooner the war will end. So I think if that's the case, then management is doing the right thing."

[This last one make me laugh out loud.]

"didn’t think that I would ever say this, but maybe it would be better for Kadyrov to lead the military operation, maybe things would go faster with less of our losses, otherwise it becomes like a desire to keep a good face on a bad game"

And now... today quiz.

How many of these comments were written by paid agents of the FSB?

[Estrella]

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1508878823185690637?s=20&t=8-J3GsseU2U...

Most upvoted comment, 936 times: "Another Khasavyurt agreement... Congratulations. Again windbags sold our guys"

There is some major hate in the comments, but also some pathetic coping:

"I hope that this is a multi-move on the part of Putin, otherwise the Russian Federation is waiting for the Maidan and the collapse of the country into parts. So betray the people, the military and people who hoped for liberation from Kyiv. After such a drain they do not live."

"Kyiv was not originally needed. The task was to "press" him. And no one is withdrawing troops from there. There is almost no supply there, and there is no point in destroying the historic city. Now the whole scenario will be from the eastern bank of the Dnieper, and to the south. But this, by the way, also means such a gesture: you see, we go forward, but you recognize the Crimea, the south and the southeast."

"No need to panic. there are still not so many forces near Kiev to storm, now we need to clean up the Donbass and all this direction. To be objective, everything was done correctly, only presented under the sauce that it was a gesture of goodwill. Not idiots are sitting in our General Staff, and Putin V.V. definitely not an idiot"

" don't panic. If in the Kiev direction we go on the defensive in the occupied sectors and finish off the enemy in the Kharkov, Southern and Donbas directions, then this is the right decision. The main forces of the enemy are concentrated there, and the sooner we destroy them, the sooner the war will end. So I think if that's the case, then management is doing the right thing."

[This last one make me laugh out loud.]

"didn’t think that I would ever say this, but maybe it would be better for Kadyrov to lead the military operation, maybe things would go faster with less of our losses, otherwise it becomes like a desire to keep a good face on a bad game"

And now... today quiz.

How many of these comments were written by paid agents of the FSB?

Unfortunately, the typical Russian really is that stupid. Thirty years of listening to the Communist version of Dolchstoß will do that to you.

[DINGO Joe]

A hero returns home: https://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-snake-island-border-guard-160358031.html

Ukraine's postal service even said it would release a stamp that says "Russian warship, go f#ck yourself" to commemorate the border guards of Snake Island.

Well, I haven't collected stamps in decades, but I'd buy a sheet of those at an outrageous markup.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1508942105334407174

[NOVA Green]

Saw this snippet from the NYT live update thread.

Again fits the pattern of local passive resistance even in occupied towns which we have seen in multiple locales since the war started.

In anther occupied city in the region, Melitopol, the mayor said the schools chief had been detained after she and local teachers refused orders by the occupying forces to change what was taught and to teach in Russian, not Ukrainian.

Edit: There's a longer article from earlier with more details.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/29/world/ukraine-russia-war/russian-forces-arrest-an-occupied-citys-education-chief-during-a-struggle-over-changing-the-curriculum

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/29/world/ukraine-russia-war

[NOVA Green]

Another update from the world of the Eastern Orthodox church...

The spiritual leader of the world’s Eastern Orthodox Christians denounced Russia’s attack on Ukraine during a visit to Poland on Tuesday, without mentioning Russia or its president, Vladimir V. Putin, by name.

“It is simply impossible to imagine how much devastation this atrocious invasion has caused for the Ukrainian people and the entire world,” Bartholomew I, the ecumenical patriarch of Constantinople, said at a news conference in Warsaw after meeting with Ukrainian refugees.

Patriarch Bartholomew, who is based in Istanbul, is considered “first among equals” among the leaders of Orthodox churches, but does not have authority over other patriarchs’ jurisdictions. Most have also denounced the invasion of Ukraine, with the notable exception of the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill I.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/29/world/ukraine-russia-war/orthodox-leader-calls-the-invasion-of-ukraine-atrocious-but-stops-short-of-denouncing-putin-by-name

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

It is very easy to be full of bravado when you're not being shot at.

Zelensky will not be giving up any more Ukrainian territory. He is willing to make concessions in terms of the Russian annexation of Crimea and the Russian puppet states in the Donbass.

There will be no Russian land bridge in the South after the peace treaty.

[Storr]

lol

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507524316312784900?s=20&t=GkZkdshvrD...

[Yoda]

I agree. This was going to happen sooner or later though. The Ukrainians can only watch civilians getting shot standing in breadlines, and babies and women get bombed to death for so long before they can't resist the urge to retaliate in kind. It's a shame that certain vile republican House members will use this as a reason to 'both sides' the war when the atrocities are almost entirely one-sided.

That's the whole point of being a professional soldier, not giving into animalistic instincts & emotions on the battlefield. War crime apologism is never really the morally right thing, no matter who's doing it and who it's being done to.

I don't care how many rockets Putin launches, it does not justify summary executions and barbaric torture of soldiers who laid down their weapons, especially when you consider the fact the ones who are giving up are more likely to give a rats ass about Putin's grandiose endeavor and just want the war to end for them.

You misread my post if you came to the conclusion that I am condoning such behavior. All I said was that in reality, in the real world - not on an internet forum where we can safely take the moral ground without ever having to test ourselves in these situations - history teaches us that this was bound to happen. It always does in war sooner or later, especially when one side is indiscriminately and gleefully (by some reports) butchering civilians en masse as a way to terrorize the population.