Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

RUB surges to 85 on latest news.   It has almost erased the damage done to it due to SWIFT and Central Bank freezing of Russian reserves sanctions. 

[CumbrianLefty]

When Mariupol falls it definitely could be a major turning point. Russians have taken the majority of the city, although fighting likely is still ongoing.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/28/europe/mariupol-mayor-ukraine-occupiers-intl/index.html

Doubt if it will make as much difference as some claim, its main value is in keeping some Russian forces tied down - but its totemic importance as a symbol of Ukrainian resistance will arguably be higher even after if/when it falls (think of Vukovar's place in making the modern Croatian nation)

And apparently some local Russian sources have admitted "off the record" that they still don't control as much of it as they are claiming in public.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/ignis_fatum/status/1508617795067682826?s=20&t=Msbg3yy56r...

[CumbrianLefty]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

Its ultimately up to the Ukrainians to decide what sort of deal is acceptable.

[jaichind]

Wheat futures plunged almost 8% on news of possible peace deal. 

[GoTfan]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

It is very easy to be full of bravado when you're not being shot at.

[Omega21]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

Its ultimately up to the Ukrainians to decide what sort of deal is acceptable.

This guy gets it.

Ukraine was not able to retake a region held by a ragtag group of separatists with Russian support, so I really do not see any scenario in which they can retake areas such as Crimea, which are under full Russian control.

Zelensky, being the capable leader he is, understands this, and is looking to lose as little as possible and stop this before his country suffers another 1,2,3 or 5 Trillion $ of damage, as well as countless destroyed families.

[CumbrianLefty]

And for all the bravado currently being displayed by some, Russia aren't likely to be invading Ukraine again (or indeed any other significant place) for some time to come should this war end soon.

[Omega21]

And for all the bravado currently being displayed by some, Russia aren't likely to be invading Ukraine again (or indeed any other significant place) for some time to come should this war end soon.

Agreed.

If Putin is smart, there will be a purge of the upper ranks & some tough lessons will need to be learned from the mistakes that were made.

This, plus the simple replacement of elite troops & equipment will undoubtedly take some time, especially considering the not so bright short-term outlook for their economy.

[Storr]

Special Cope Operation

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1508770413731590152?s=20&t=2_Exsmu...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1508784697643573255?s=20&t=D8idMIlwN04...

[Torie]

I can't decide whether it is more likely Putin is dissembling (when it comes to the details there is nothing really there regarding protecting Ukraine for another round), or it's real. Real means the Putin's fantasies, and fantasies about Russia recreating its empire, are dead.

[Logical]

As with previous attempts on peace, I'll believe it when I see it.  Either way, the West will not lift most sanctions until Russia leaves Crimea and the Donbass.

[jaichind]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

I believe in might makes right and right of conquest so I really do not care about this UN charter.  I do think if the deal involves Ukraine giving up the Donetsk area is a bad idea.  It is clearly bad for Ukraine but I believe it is also bad for Russia because it creates a revanchist Ukraine.  If Putin is determined to take over that area he is better off completely overrunning Eastern Ukraine and leaving a rump Catholic Western Ukraine that is too weak to be a future threat.  By taking over the Donetsk area but leaving Ukraine intact all that means is that decades in the future in a possible period of temporary Russian weakness Ukraine will join an anti-Russian alliance to get back Donetsk.  Putin is much better off giving back Donetsk and trading that in for reversing de-Russification in Ukraine.  What Putin/Russia seems to be doing is very short-sighted in my view if they do grab Donetsk.

[compucomp]

Now that a peace deal where Ukraine will swear neutrality and possibly give up more has become a realistic possibility, it will be interesting to see how this thread reacts. If posters turn against the agreement and advocate for continued war, then it shows that they were warmongering from the start and that they are willing to fight for Western interests down to the last Ukrainian man.

[Sir Mohamed]

Isn't it still possible - if not likely - Russia just pretends to negotiate and reduce miltary action to reorganize their military? And kind of reduce high alert in Ukraine before launching another push? I just don't believe a single word from Russia. Putler more than once broke his word. He and his enablers have zero credibility.

[Torie]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

I believe in might makes right and right of conquest so I really do not care about this UN charter.  I do think if the deal involves Ukraine giving up the Donetsk area is a bad idea.  It is clearly bad for Ukraine but I believe it is also bad for Russia because it creates a revanchist Ukraine.  If Putin is determined to take over that area he is better off completely overrunning Eastern Ukraine and leaving a rump Catholic Western Ukraine that is too weak to be a future threat.  By taking over the Donetsk area but leaving Ukraine intact all that means is that decades in the future in a possible period of temporary Russian weakness Ukraine will join an anti-Russian alliance to get back Donetsk.  Putin is much better off giving back Donetsk and trading that in for reversing de-Russification in Ukraine.  What Putin/Russia seems to be doing is very short-sighted in my view if they do grab Donetsk.

What does "reversing de-Russification in Ukraine" actually mean?

If it means "protecting" the Russian language, that reminds me as to what happened to the German language in the US after WWI. It "died," almost instantly. It was not by treaty, or by law, it happened organically. It was no longer a positive status symbol to embrace German culture. It became a source of embarrassment and shame and social ostracization.

[sting in the rafters]

1.What assurances are there any referendum would be free/fair, let alone allow accommodations for the new Ukrainian diaspora to participate?
2. Has Moscow withdrawn its demand for all foreign NATO combat forces to exit the former Eastern Bloc nations which have since joined the Alliance?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1508787566711128065

[Torie]

Isn't it still possible - if not likely - Russia just pretends to negotiate and reduce miltary action to reorganize their military? And kind of reduce high alert in Ukraine before launching another push? I just don't believe a single word from Russia. Putler more than once broke his word. He and his enablers have zero credibility.

See my post above. Flip a coin. The outlines of the deal as described basically entail "cosmeticising" a Putin loss, and perhaps his early retirement.

[Sol]

The valuable thing about formally ceding Crimea and part of the Donbass is that it allows Putin to spin this as a victory--"look at what we did"--despite Russia actually handling the war quite poorly. Being able to talk about this as a win for Russia makes peace a lot more plausible.

[2952-0-0]

RUB surges to 85 on latest news.   It has almost erased the damage done to it due to SWIFT and Central Bank freezing of Russian reserves sanctions.  

Yes, and during the Soviet era, the Ruble was nominally as strong as the British Pound. Too bad that merely possessing foreign currency earned you a trip to the gulag.

In the real world, the Ruble is trading on the black market at about 120 to 150 to the dollar.

I believe in might makes right and right of conquest so I really do not care about this UN charter.

Uh huh, and what happens when the "mighty" side that seeks conquest is revealed to be a paper tiger that bankrupted itself for the next generation?

I do think if the deal involves Ukraine giving up the Donetsk area is a bad idea.  It is clearly bad for Ukraine but I believe it is also bad for Russia because it creates a revanchist Ukraine.  If Putin is determined to take over that area he is better off completely overrunning Eastern Ukraine and leaving a rump Catholic Western Ukraine that is too weak to be a future threat.  By taking over the Donetsk area but leaving Ukraine intact all that means is that decades in the future in a possible period of temporary Russian weakness Ukraine will join an anti-Russian alliance to get back Donetsk.

So the sunk cost fallacy. Putin can't afford to give up now, and he simply doesn't have the resources to take any more Ukrainian land, so he should...throw more young Russian men into the meat grinder? Or, maybe since a disproportionate number of Russian casualties had Muslim names, he can afford to throw them into the meat grinder.

Putin is much better off giving back Donetsk and trading that in for reversing de-Russification in Ukraine.  What Putin/Russia seems to be doing is very short-sighted in my view if they do grab Donetsk.

But what is there to prevent Ukraine from agreeing to reverse de-Russification in order to get back the Donbass, and then immediately going back on that promise five minutes after the last Russian soldier has left? That would only reveal his complete powerlessness. I dare say that would increase the chance of Swan Lake suddenly being shown on every Russian TV channel.

If I were him, what happens after I die, and when Russia falls into a period of weakness, is simply not my concern. My concern is to survive in the present. I would withdraw to the pre-February 24 boundaries and declare that I had accomplished my goal of protecting Russian-speakers in the Donbass, and then arrest any Russian ultra-nationalists who dare question me. The military will also be thoroughly reduced into little more than a few parade groups, with whatever funds I can afford to lavish on the military going to some special forces and a credible nuclear deterrent.

As with previous attempts on peace, I'll believe it when I see it.  Either way, the West will not lift most sanctions until Russia leaves Crimea and the Donbass.

Not just that. No foreign investor, whether from the western countries, or even China or India, will put more than a nominal amount into Russia as long as Putin is in power, even if all sanctions are lifted. Nationalizing foreign investment turned out to be yet another of Putin's tactics to look tough to the west, which ended up causing long-term damage to the Russian nation.

I can't decide whether it is more likely Putin is dissembling (when it comes to the details there is nothing really there regarding protecting Ukraine for another round), or it's real. Real means the Putin's fantasies, and fantasies about Russia recreating its empire, are dead.

Putin has shown himself to pivot the focus of his domestic propaganda as necessary. He was a pro-western liberal, before he became a religious conservative, before he became a neo-Soviet revanchist. He can simply pivot again to be an isolationist.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The valuable thing about formally ceding Crimea and part of the Donbass is that it allows Putin to spin this as a victory--"look at what we did"--despite Russia actually handling the war quite poorly. Being able to talk about this as a win for Russia makes peace a lot more plausible.

Hence the phrase "pyrrhic victory".

[Storr]

The Soviet era T-34 monument commemorating the August 1943 liberation of Trostyanets survived the fighting.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1508790827757326341?s=20&t=xLWUYoq3...

[(no subject)]

The West: "Like an undersized bra, we will offer the Ukraine all support, short of help".

[Storr]

The West: "Like an undersized bra, we will offer the Ukraine all support, short of help".

Yeah, those pathetic cowardly bourgeoisie westerners. Only sending metric tonnes of weapons, ammunition, and advanced technology (drones, night vision, etc.).