Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Thank you Russia!

The modernization program to BVM specifications was started in only 2017 (according to wikipedia), so this is a like-new tank.  

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501255520996495365?s=20&t=eyl0oLvu7abXgf...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1501031320130052097

[Person Man]

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/03/08/exclusive-limited-no-fly-zone-gains-steam-among-foreign-policy-elite-00015004

Awful idea. No thank you.

It's actually a great way to turn up the heat. "Humanitarian corridors" were the first step in Libya.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

AFP reports that President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is no longer pressing for NATO membership for Ukraine

This means a peace settlement is possible. Perhaps the Americans will not be so eager to give up their ambitions though and will try to strong-arm Zelensky into revoking this statement.

I still hope both Russia and Ukraine can come to their senses and work out a compromise where Ukraine has constitutional guarantees on being neutral while the two Donetsk Republics return to Ukraine as autonomous regions.  The Second condition is key especially now Russia is now much more dependent on PRC which would be very negative the the idea of independence.  The word independence is a big no no for PRC.  Autonomy yes, independence no.

I would support such a compromise to be honest. Of course while Ukraine may not need to be a part of NATO, Western countries still should definitely be working with the government to further improve the Ukrainian military to prevent future aggression.

Ukrainian neutrality guarantees (and possibly recognition of the Crimea fait accompli) were always a reasonable peace term as long as they were accompanied by Russia disengaging from Ukraine in good faith. We'll see if that "as long as" means anything, I suppose.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1501031320130052097

A thought that came to mind is that the Ukrainians could adopt a US-like program to recover, identify, and return as many individual soldiers' remains as possible (where and when this is feasible), not only for Ukrainians but also Russians. It would further promote their propaganda campaign aimed at Russian armed forces family members and the world at large. It's purpose has been to spread the message that they are the not neo-nazi fascists like the Kremlin claims and that the Russian people aren't their enemies.

[Old Man Willow]

No matter the final result of this war, Putin is utterly humiliated and has shown his card as a paper tiger. He will never be seen as he was the last 20 years again, either inside or outside Russia.

[Silent Hunter]

AP reports McDonald’s Temporarily Closing 850 Restaurants in Russia

This is actually a great opportunity for Russian copycats of McDonald’s.  The PRC has tons of McDonald’s and KFC copycats.

Continuing to pay their employees as well.

[Boobs]

AP reports McDonald’s Temporarily Closing 850 Restaurants in Russia

This is actually a great opportunity for Russian copycats of McDonald’s.  The PRC has tons of McDonald’s and KFC copycats.

Opening new restaurants with what capital exactly?

[Aurelius]

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/03/08/exclusive-limited-no-fly-zone-gains-steam-among-foreign-policy-elite-00015004

Awful idea. No thank you.

It's actually a great way to turn up the heat. "Humanitarian corridors" were the first step in Libya.

The implications of shooting down Russian planes are much worse than those of shooting down Libyan planes. Putin knows this too.

[Badger]

AP reports McDonald’s Temporarily Closing 850 Restaurants in Russia

This is actually a great opportunity for Russian copycats of McDonald’s.  The PRC has tons of McDonald’s and KFC copycats.

Yes, and we're sure that you will jump in on this exciting new money making venture if given the opportunity.

Anyway, I will now accept my accolades.

As much as Russians are suffering from the effects of sanctions, they can still take solace in McDonalds (for now):

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1500954446066593794

 I just wrote an email to the customer service Addresses for PepsiCo and McDonald's, readily available at the respective websites. I advised that although my family uses their products regularly come out we henceforth will cease to do so, as Well As members of our small business, until they pull out of Russia while Ukraine is under attack, like other companies such as Microsoft and Coca-Cola.

As I stated in each, if Ukrainians can soldier on without heat, electricity, running water, or food, let alone the knowledge that they or their family members won't be killed by indiscriminate rushing bombing and rocket attacks, that I can live without my beloved Doritos/quarter pounders for as long as necessary.

And for those of you taking the "boycotts never work" stance, keep in mind that Coke was resisting calls for divestment as well but flipped in response to public pressure in just the last couple days.

[Storr]

Big if true:
https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1501268895939837954?s=20&t=1pWaBeP...

[Storr]

Big if true:
<tweet snip>

Seems true.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1501270316110127104?s=20&t=mQhvpQEJeJY...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1501271292539981829?s=20&t=mQhvpQEJeJY...

[It’s so Joever]

The reports of Vasylivka and Polohy getting captured by the Russians appear to be true.
Russian troops have also reached Snihurivka.
The Southern front is collapsing at an alarming rate.

[AndyHogan14]

AFP reports that President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is no longer pressing for NATO membership for Ukraine

This means a peace settlement is possible. Perhaps the Americans will not be so eager to give up their ambitions though and will try to strong-arm Zelensky into revoking this statement.

I still hope both Russia and Ukraine can come to their senses and work out a compromise where Ukraine has constitutional guarantees on being neutral while the two Donetsk Republics return to Ukraine as autonomous regions.  The Second condition is key especially now Russia is now much more dependent on PRC which would be very negative the the idea of independence.  The word independence is a big no no for PRC.  Autonomy yes, independence no.

I would support such a compromise to be honest. Of course while Ukraine may not need to be a part of NATO, Western countries still should definitely be working with the government to further improve the Ukrainian military to prevent future aggression.

Ukrainian neutrality guarantees (and possibly recognition of the Crimea fait accompli) were always a reasonable peace term as long as they were accompanied by Russia disengaging from Ukraine in good faith. We'll see if that "as long as" means anything, I suppose.

In the end though, the west should not, under any circumstances, unfreeze a single penny or lift any sanctions until Russia leaves the entirety of Ukraine—and that includes Crimea. Regardless of whether or not they illegally strong arm the Ukrainians into accepting its loss. The Russians decided to escalate this thing. Because of that, they don't just get to go back to normal until they pay a price and Crimea seems to be a decent enough price to pay.

[Storr]

The reports of Vasylivka and Polohy getting captured by the Russians appear to be true.
Russian troops have also reached Snihurivka.
The Southern front is collapsing at an alarming rate.

Can you at least cite something when you doom?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The reports of Vasylivka and Polohy getting captured by the Russians appear to be true.
Russian troops have also reached Snihurivka.
The Southern front is collapsing at an alarming rate.

"Alarming rate" = 10 days after the Russians expected the entire country to collapse

[Storr]

Putin has created a situation where I somehow like one of Boris Johnson's ideas:

Though, I'd suggest the plan should support Moldova too. Despite not (currently?) facing war, it's the poorest country in Europe and desperately needs foreign investment/aid.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1501270928688394245?s=20&t=RCiBnL...

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1501271292539981829?s=20&t=mQhvpQEJeJY...

Germany already sold its entire MiG-29 fleet for a symbolic price of 1 Euro a piece to Poland back in 2004. These were the very same planes that will find their way to Ukraine now. We've been looking for years to get rid of our aging Tornados too (and replace them with either F/A-18E/Fs or F-35s) and these plans stand a good chance of being accelerated given the planned 100 billion Euro defense funding, but I don't know if they would be any use to Ukraine since their pilots aren't trained for them.

Speaking of Germany, the Russian gas/oil embargo debate is in full swing now here, with the FDP pushing for it hard and the SPD/Greens stalling on it. That's the very same set-up we orginally had in the arms shipment debate, until the FDP position essentially became the Scholz position.

[jaichind]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-restricts-import-export-listed-180229913.html

"Russia restricts import and export of listed goods and raw materials - Interfax"

No details on what raw materials and nature of retrictions.  I guess details are forthcoming.  The decoupling continues.

[jaichind]

AP reports McDonald’s Temporarily Closing 850 Restaurants in Russia

This is actually a great opportunity for Russian copycats of McDonald’s.  The PRC has tons of McDonald’s and KFC copycats.

Opening new restaurants with what capital exactly?

The sanctions have not removed the Russian workforce, raw materials, and food from the Russian economy,  The Russian domestic economy that does not require foreign cash to import key inputs continues to operate and for people that want to take risks and make money there is nothing stopping them from building various copycats as long as they think people will go to them now that McDonald's is no longer an option.

[It’s so Joever]

CIA director believes that around 13,000 to 14,000 have been arrested in Russi for protesting against the invasion.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-08-22/index.html

[It’s so Joever]

The reports of Vasylivka and Polohy getting captured by the Russians appear to be true.
Russian troops have also reached Snihurivka.
The Southern front is collapsing at an alarming rate.

Can you at least cite something when you doom?

https://bnn-news.com/ukraine-after-11th-night-of-war-mayor-killed-towns-taken-moscow-promises-civilian-corridors-to-russia-233013

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1501220756361035778?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[Storr]

Putin has created a situation where I somehow like one of Boris Johnson's ideas:

Though, I'd suggest the plan should support Moldova too. Despite not (currently?) facing war, it's the poorest country in Europe and desperately needs foreign investment/aid.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1501270928688394245?s=20&t=RCiBnL...

Actually, when looking up the poorest UN member (sorry Kosovo) countries in Europe by the most used statistics for measuring wealth, nominal GDP per capita and GDP Purchasing Power Parity per capita, it isn't clear which country is the poorest. But, there are two countries which are the only countries to hold the bottom two stops, even when looking at 2020 and 2019 data: Moldova and Ukraine.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/EamonJavers/status/1501230944002670593?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...