Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile.... Putin joins the Pirate Party!

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave Russians the green light to ignore laws on intellectual property and licenses, part of a package of emergency measures he signed Tuesday to address the severe impact of Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.

The package allows the government to deviate from IP and licensing laws.

Russia’s finances have been severely hit by sanctions — but also by the impact of hundreds of companies leaving Russia, including Microsoft, which announced Friday it was suspending sales in Russia.

Kommersant newspaper reported Saturday that Russia may abolish criminal penalties for pirating software, to ease the impact of Microsoft, IBM, Oracle and other companies suspending operations in Russia.

Putin said Saturday that Western sanctions were akin to a declaration of war on Russia while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “there should be an appropriate response to this economic banditry,” answering questions about moves to allow the pirating of software.

On Tuesday Russia announced that people holding Russian dollar-denominated bonds could be repaid in rubles for bondholders in dozens of “unfriendly countries” that were punishing Russia.

The emergency package signed by Putin also suspends government inspections of Russian IT companies and small- and medium-size businesses.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-6YUWOZXPQRH27F54AB7RNON6QU

[lfromnj]

https://www.businessinsider.com/omar-says-shell-vote-against-russian-oil-ban-citing-impact-on-russians-2022-3

Bds supporter now thinks sanctions are bad.

[Badger]

https://www.businessinsider.com/omar-says-shell-vote-against-russian-oil-ban-citing-impact-on-russians-2022-3

Bds supporter now thinks sanctions are bad.

 Lord she's bad. Such a shame her primary challenger didn't win.

[Badger]

Meanwhile.... Putin joins the Pirate Party!

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave Russians the green light to ignore laws on intellectual property and licenses, part of a package of emergency measures he signed Tuesday to address the severe impact of Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.

The package allows the government to deviate from IP and licensing laws.

Russia’s finances have been severely hit by sanctions — but also by the impact of hundreds of companies leaving Russia, including Microsoft, which announced Friday it was suspending sales in Russia.

Kommersant newspaper reported Saturday that Russia may abolish criminal penalties for pirating software, to ease the impact of Microsoft, IBM, Oracle and other companies suspending operations in Russia.

Putin said Saturday that Western sanctions were akin to a declaration of war on Russia while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “there should be an appropriate response to this economic banditry,” answering questions about moves to allow the pirating of software.

On Tuesday Russia announced that people holding Russian dollar-denominated bonds could be repaid in rubles for bondholders in dozens of “unfriendly countries” that were punishing Russia.

The emergency package signed by Putin also suspends government inspections of Russian IT companies and small- and medium-size businesses.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-6YUWOZXPQRH27F54AB7RNON6QU

 Between this, the threatened nationalization of foreign businesses which have ceased  Is operations in Russia, and closing the stock market for over a week in counting, am I being hyperbolic in saying that foreign investment in Russia is going to be devastated for years, possibly the  rest of this decade?

 I seriously question whether or not this will apply only to Western corporations. Since. Surely Indian companies don't like the idea of their shares shares not being marketable in a downturn or their business is being nationalized if and when their country has a major tiff  With Putin

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile.... Putin joins the Pirate Party!

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave Russians the green light to ignore laws on intellectual property and licenses, part of a package of emergency measures he signed Tuesday to address the severe impact of Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.

The package allows the government to deviate from IP and licensing laws.

Russia’s finances have been severely hit by sanctions — but also by the impact of hundreds of companies leaving Russia, including Microsoft, which announced Friday it was suspending sales in Russia.

Kommersant newspaper reported Saturday that Russia may abolish criminal penalties for pirating software, to ease the impact of Microsoft, IBM, Oracle and other companies suspending operations in Russia.

Putin said Saturday that Western sanctions were akin to a declaration of war on Russia while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “there should be an appropriate response to this economic banditry,” answering questions about moves to allow the pirating of software.

On Tuesday Russia announced that people holding Russian dollar-denominated bonds could be repaid in rubles for bondholders in dozens of “unfriendly countries” that were punishing Russia.

The emergency package signed by Putin also suspends government inspections of Russian IT companies and small- and medium-size businesses.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-6YUWOZXPQRH27F54AB7RNON6QU

 Between this, the threatened nationalization of foreign businesses which have ceased  Is operations in Russia, and closing the stock market for over a week in counting, am I being hyperbolic in saying that foreign investment in Russia is going to be devastated for years, possibly the  rest of this decade?

 I seriously question whether or not this will apply only to Western corporations. Since. Surely Indian companies don't like the idea of their shares shares not being marketable in a downturn or their business is being nationalized if and when their country has a major tiff  With Putin

Honestly, I would not be surprised if this lasts longer than the end of the decade unless there is a major change within the Russian "Body Politic".

Russia is basically on the verge of becoming the largest "Rogue Nation" on Earth at this time, from an economic perspective, since really even many Chinese companies who would love to take up the slack, themselves will face financial repercussions depending upon what their business activities are involving Russia.

Just a few minutes ago per The Washington Post:

Lumen, a leading American Internet provider to Russia, announced Tuesday that it was severing business relations in the country, a move likely to increase Russia’s isolation as its citizens slip behind what some analysts are calling a new digital Iron Curtain.

Lumen is the second top U.S.-based carrier to make such a move in recent days, following Friday’s announcement by Cogent Communications. Taken together, these moves are likely to make it harder for Russians to gain access to international services, such as news sites and social media based in the West, telecommunications experts said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-QPY6EVMWDVFWJK4GKWSF4652OU

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://www.businessinsider.com/omar-says-shell-vote-against-russian-oil-ban-citing-impact-on-russians-2022-3

Bds supporter now thinks sanctions are bad.

 Lord she's bad. Such a shame her primary challenger didn't win.

I wonder if this'll change the minds of any of the people who think her stance on Israel is principled and reasonable. Probably not tbh.

[Storr]

https://www.businessinsider.com/omar-says-shell-vote-against-russian-oil-ban-citing-impact-on-russians-2022-3

Bds supporter now thinks sanctions are bad.

 Lord she's bad. Such a shame her primary challenger didn't win.

I wonder if this'll change the minds of any of the people who think her stance on Israel is principled and reasonable. Probably not tbh.

BDS is fine, who cares about the Israeli people. But sanctioning Russia? Think of the poor Russian people.

Wait...what does she mean by "it's not going to end well, for the people of Europe as well"?

""Whether it is politically or morally, we have to think about what this means a year from now, what this means two years, three years from now," she continued. "I think ultimately, this is not going to end well, for the the actual people of Russia, and it's not going to end well, for the people of Europe as well.""

[Yoda]

Meanwhile.... Putin joins the Pirate Party!

Russian President Vladimir Putin gave Russians the green light to ignore laws on intellectual property and licenses, part of a package of emergency measures he signed Tuesday to address the severe impact of Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine.

The package allows the government to deviate from IP and licensing laws.

Russia’s finances have been severely hit by sanctions — but also by the impact of hundreds of companies leaving Russia, including Microsoft, which announced Friday it was suspending sales in Russia.

Kommersant newspaper reported Saturday that Russia may abolish criminal penalties for pirating software, to ease the impact of Microsoft, IBM, Oracle and other companies suspending operations in Russia.

Putin said Saturday that Western sanctions were akin to a declaration of war on Russia while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “there should be an appropriate response to this economic banditry,” answering questions about moves to allow the pirating of software.

On Tuesday Russia announced that people holding Russian dollar-denominated bonds could be repaid in rubles for bondholders in dozens of “unfriendly countries” that were punishing Russia.

The emergency package signed by Putin also suspends government inspections of Russian IT companies and small- and medium-size businesses.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-6YUWOZXPQRH27F54AB7RNON6QU

Bunch of republican Putin apologists about to get a debt payment in monopoly money lol.

[It’s so Joever]

Okay, we know how Atlas loves to deconstruct polls, especially polls involving US Elections, so take it for what it's worth (Although I believe they have their cross-tabs available if you follow the link on the WP article below)

Poll of Russian Public Opinion regarding the War in Ukraine:

58 percent of Russians support invasion of Ukraine, 23 percent oppose it, poll shows

About 58 percent of Russians approve of the invasion of Ukraine, while 23 percent oppose it, according to a poll conducted across Russia a week into Moscow’s full-scale assault.

Let's keep in mind that Russia is an authoritarian regime and that people are currently being arrested for peaceful assembly, so people may not feel comfortable saying they oppose the invasion even if they do.

My initial thought was 58% approval seems low for not even two weeks into a war in a country with an authoritarian government that has no independent media and where it's illegal to even use the word "war" instead of "special military operation".

In fact, these numbers look quite similar to American public opinion about Lyndon Johnson's handling of the War in Vietnam in December 1965:

Russian Richard Nixon time?

[Don Vito Corleone]

While Japanese imperialism remains a threat to China if it wakes from dormancy, it is intriguing to think about the prospect of a China-South Korea alliance, shredding into ruins the American strategy for East Asia.

You know as well as I do that the ending of the US-SK alliance, nevermind a China-SK alliance, is extremely unlikely to happen; especially with SK very possibly electing a hardline Pro-US anti-China president tomorrow.

[Hope For A New Era]

While Japanese imperialism remains a threat to China if it wakes from dormancy, it is intriguing to think about the prospect of a China-South Korea alliance, shredding into ruins the American strategy for East Asia.

You know as well as I do that the ending of the US-SK alliance, nevermind a China-SK alliance, is extremely unlikely to happen; especially with SK very possibly electing a hardline Pro-US anti-China president tomorrow.

I mean I'm glad he's anti-China but he doesn't seem exactly the most stable

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

The next one:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1501299309907611653

Now, I don't know a thing or two about how teenagers behave in Russia. However, from what I do know about how they act here in the States, this would literally cause riots.

[Devout Centrist]

While Japanese imperialism remains a threat to China if it wakes from dormancy, it is intriguing to think about the prospect of a China-South Korea alliance, shredding into ruins the American strategy for East Asia.

You know as well as I do...

Very much doubt that, given that this kid is as dull as they come.

[NOVA Green]

Really, really good article from The Economist today about the why we haven't seen more activity from the Russian Airforce in this war.

(Sorry gonna be limited to snippets of text and no visuals, graphs, etc... unless folx either cough up the $$$ for at minimum a digital subscription, have access via their College / University packages, etc...)

The curious case of Russia’s missing air force

Experts had expected the invaders to use their planes to pick off Ukraine’s forces at will

More than 60 new planes would be delivered to the Russian air force by the end of the year, boasted Lieutenant General Sergei Dronov, its deputy commander, last summer. These would include Su-30, Su-35 and Su-57 fighter jets and Su-34 bombers—as advanced as anything the rest of Europe has to offer. All had been “tested in combat conditions” in Syria, he assured the discerning readers of Krasnaya Zvezda, the official newspaper of Russia’s defence ministry.

Billions of dollars have been poured into Russia’s warplanes over the past decade. Between 2009 and 2020 the air force gained around 440 new fixed-wing aircraft, as well as thousands of drones. At the outset of war, it was widely assumed by defence analysts and officials that Russia would quickly destroy its enemy’s air force and roam freely over the country, using its air superiority to pick off Ukrainian forces at will.

Yet in the first two weeks of combat, Russia’s air force has played a minimal role. Air activity is difficult to track and Russian air strikes may have increased in both number and complexity in recent days. It is clear, though, that the Russian air force has held back its full capabilities. “Fast jets have conducted only limited sorties in Ukrainian airspace, in singles or pairs, always at low altitudes and mostly at night,” notes Justin Bronk of the Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank in London.

When hostilities began, Russia sent a volley of cruise and ballistic missiles towards Ukraine’s air bases in an attempt to ground its planes and air-defence systems, and to hobble its radars and anti-aircraft missiles. That effort failed. Ukraine had wisely dispersed its air-defence systems, making them harder to find. American defence officials say that Ukrainian air and missile defences consequently “remain effective and in use”—a claim that can be corroborated with open-source intelligence.

...

Images which appear to show the wreckage of a Su-34 attack jet shot down over Chernihiv suggest it was armed with unguided bombs. This is telling, says Mr Bronk, because Russia’s Su-34 regiments are “the most proficient and regular users” of precision munitions in the air force when available. Images released by Russian state media show other Su-34s parked on a runway armed with more unguided weapons; others reportedly from Chernihiv and Kharkiv show exploded unguided bombs littering urban areas, including one that landed in a house.

....  

https://www.economist.com/interactive/2022/03/08/curious-case-russias-missing-air-force?fsrc=core-app-economist

[compucomp]

While Japanese imperialism remains a threat to China if it wakes from dormancy, it is intriguing to think about the prospect of a China-South Korea alliance, shredding into ruins the American strategy for East Asia.

You know as well as I do that the ending of the US-SK alliance, nevermind a China-SK alliance, is extremely unlikely to happen; especially with SK very possibly electing a hardline Pro-US anti-China president tomorrow.

It's unlikely in the current state of the world but it becomes much more likely in a world where Japan is launching imperialist wars, a world that posters were short-sightedly cheering. South Korea (both Koreas actually) still hate Japan and resent the annexation, South Korea holds an island that Japan claims (Dokdo), and China and Korea historically had centuries of friendly relations.

[Storr]

While Japanese imperialism remains a threat to China if it wakes from dormancy, it is intriguing to think about the prospect of a China-South Korea alliance, shredding into ruins the American strategy for East Asia.

You know as well as I do that the ending of the US-SK alliance, nevermind a China-SK alliance, is extremely unlikely to happen; especially with SK very possibly electing a hardline Pro-US anti-China president tomorrow.

It's unlikely in the current state of the world but it becomes much more likely in a world where Japan is launching imperialist wars, a world that posters were short-sightedly cheering. South Korea (both Koreas actually) still hate Japan and resent the annexation, South Korea holds an island that Japan claims (Dokdo), and China and Korea historically had centuries of friendly relations.

Meanwhile Russia is literally in the middle of conducting an imperialist war right now.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DEFCONWSALERTS/status/1501415224397553668

[Frodo]

Upwards of 4,000 Russian soldiers are estimated to have been killed so far:

U.S. Military Intelligence Estimates Russian Troop Deaths Reach 4,000

And that's after only about a couple of weeks since the invasion began.  Those were our totals after nearly a decade in Iraq...  

[Storr]

Upwards of 4,000 Russian soldiers are estimated to have been killed so far:

U.S. Military Intelligence Estimates Russian Troop Deaths Reach 4,000

And that's after only about a couple of weeks since the invasion began.  Those were our totals after eight years in Iraq... 

Today makes two weeks. I'm sure the US military is being somewhat conservative in their estimate, as well.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1501426544669073409?s=20&t=70WUGX6xS...

[It’s so Joever]

New changes:
The Russians have fully taken Hostomel and Bucha, both of which are northwest of Kyiv. The Russians already controlled the airbase but now they have all the city. This will help in their obvious aim of encircling Kyiv.

In the south, the towns of Orikhiv and Hulyaipole have been taken by the Russians.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-8

[Storr]

New changes:
The Russians have fully taken Hostomel and Bucha, both of which are northwest of Kyiv. The Russians already controlled the airbase but now they have all the city. This will help in their obvious aim of encircling Kyiv.

In the south, the towns of Orikhiv and Hulyaipole have been taken by the Russians.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-8

Notably Mykolayiv isn't mentioned in the following section. I guess they see the second highest priority objective for the Russians (after Kyiv) as Zaporizhia.

"Immediate items to watch:

Russian forces may launch an attempt to encircle Kyiv from east and west and/or to seize the city center itself within the next 24-96 hours

Russian troops may drive on Zaporizhia city itself within the next 48-72 hours, likely attempting to block it from the east and set conditions for subsequent operations after Russian forces besieging Mariupol take that city;

Russian forces may attempt amphibious landings anywhere along the Black Sea Coast between Odesa and the mouth of the Southern Bug in the next 24-48 hours."

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

While Japanese imperialism remains a threat to China if it wakes from dormancy, it is intriguing to think about the prospect of a China-South Korea alliance, shredding into ruins the American strategy for East Asia.

You know as well as I do that the ending of the US-SK alliance, nevermind a China-SK alliance, is extremely unlikely to happen; especially with SK very possibly electing a hardline Pro-US anti-China president tomorrow.

It's unlikely in the current state of the world but it becomes much more likely in a world where Japan is launching imperialist wars, a world that posters were short-sightedly cheering. South Korea (both Koreas actually) still hate Japan and resent the annexation, South Korea holds an island that Japan claims (Dokdo), and China and Korea historically had centuries of friendly relations.

Meanwhile Russia is literally in the middle of conducting an imperialist war right now.

Imperialism is expansionism or irredentism by countries whose citizens have civil and political rights; the more civil and political rights they have, the imperialister it is. (Which, given the rights situation in Japan, means that it would still be less imperialist than many-to-most other liberal democracies...)

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1501423330771050501?s=20&t=cQWNZxWL5...

Although I would not be surprised if this particular image ends up being verified and corroborated with local media accounts, until it is geo-located, naturally tend towards caution.

What is clear is that the Russian Invasion of Ukraine has multiple verifiable incidents of actions which could well be considered "War Crimes", by any "Modern" definition.

By this I mean actions such as targeting civilian infrastructure including schools, hospitals, power plants, Municipal Water Supply Systems, etc...

Not to play a "both sides do it" scenario it is pretty clear that US Military Activities during Iraq War 1.0 and the subsequent sanction era likely qualified as war crimes in that regard, at least based upon the evidence compiled by former US Attorney General Ramsey Clark

https://www.amazon.com/War-Crimes-Report-U-S-Against/dp/0944624154

https://www.amazon.com/Fire-This-Time-U-S-Crimes/dp/1560250712

Regardless of all that, in no way shape or form exculpate Russia from the War Crimes they have committed in Ukraine.

I have deliberately held off posting some of the more horrifying verifiable images and stories during the current Russian attempted invasion and occupation of Ukraine, not out of any sympathy for the aggressors, but rather my assumption that most of Atlas has already been witnessing these horrific images.

Those within the Russian Leadership and Military responsible for these crimes can and should be held to account under an International Criminal Court, although I suspect that many within the International Global Community will likely just shrug their shoulders since there has really been no accountability for actions since WW II, with a few exceptions such as Rwanda and Yugoslavia...

Who was held accountable for War Crimes in Afghanistan during the Afghan Civil War after both the US and USSR had effectively pulled out, while Kabul was being mercilessly bombarded by heavy artillery from the "Warlords" we had helped back during the war?

Who was held accountable for the atrocities of Dostum?

I digress.... the civilians in war zones are always the ones who suffer the most.

Russia started this senseless war for no reason every Russian officer who makes conscious choices to target civilians should be held accountable.

[NOVA Green]

New changes:
The Russians have fully taken Hostomel and Bucha, both of which are northwest of Kyiv. The Russians already controlled the airbase but now they have all the city. This will help in their obvious aim of encircling Kyiv.

In the south, the towns of Orikhiv and Hulyaipole have been taken by the Russians.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-8

Putin can eat all the Rubble he wants.

Burning the village in order to save it, won't conquer Ukraine.

This will be Russia's Vietnam in a way in which Afghanistan was not.

[NOVA Green]

War Map Updates from Logical's source just updated a couple hours ago (in no particular order):

Believe I fixed "No Tweet Errors".

No editorial comment and haven't really even looked at the maps yet.

Figure y'all will cover the gap on your different time zones.  

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1501417143312789508?s=20&t=YJZHunyv6YEvgf...


https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1501417494413721603?s=20&t=YJZHunyv6YEvgf...

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1501417494413721603?s=20&t=YJZHunyv6YEvgf...

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1501418116269678596?s=20&t=YJZHunyv6YEvgf...

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1501418116269678596?s=20&t=YJZHunyv6YEvgf...

Not sure if I missed any of the updates here, but thought early risers and internationals, and West Coast insomniacs much appreciate....

Logical always does it better.