Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

As much as Russians are suffering from the effects of sanctions, they can still take solace in McDonalds (for now):

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1500954446066593794

But can they still eat at Pizza Hut? Asking the real questions here....

 PepsiCo sold it and it's other fast food chains like Taco Bell and KFC  Almost a quarter century ago

Isn't that Yum! brands?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Anyone remember this from the early days of the uprising against Gaddafi? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/feb/21/libya-pilots-flee-to-malta

Wondering if we'll see any Russian pilots do this especially since getting shot down is likely the alternative. At least in Libya the opposition had no air force or air defense at all until NATO intervened.

This is what the Ukranian Su-27 pilot did on day one (his story is that he needed to land and lost contact with his base, which was being attacked at the time he flew into Romania), so we've already seen it.

[Storr]

RIP HP

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1500953999134150663?s=20&t=L7LJFOo_s...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1500953180313640961

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

As much as Russians are suffering from the effects of sanctions, they can still take solace in McDonalds (for now):

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1500954446066593794

Maybe Thomas Friedman will try to get them to close their Ukraine locations to try to salvage his dumb theory that two countries with McDonalds can't be at war.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

As much as Russians are suffering from the effects of sanctions, they can still take solace in McDonalds (for now):

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1500954446066593794

Maybe Thomas Friedman will try to get them to close their Ukraine locations to try to salvage his dumb theory that two countries with McDonalds can't be at war.

"My theory accounts for wars, not special operations."

[Logical]

RIP HP

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1500953999134150663?s=20&t=L7LJFOo_s...

He is the second Chief of Staff of the 41st Combined Arms Army to be killed in a week.

[WMS]

I have no doubt Ukraine is getting some kind of help from NATO beyond intel, weapons, and ant-tank missiles that is currently being kept secret.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1500888160259117056?s=20&t=ddk73d9RCVf...

Yes. Hasn’t been said yet. If and when it gets revealed openly then I can confirm it.

Damn that sounds even more like Sam Spade, but can’t be avoided.

There’s a lot of new forum people. They don’t know who he is.

Ah, true. A poster famous for making vague predictions and telling people to be patient; that all will be revealed in time. Not sure how many of those ever came to fruition. Some people thought he did it for attention.

I’m trying to avoid that. I swear by whatever individual posters hold dear that:
1. I am referring to a real thing going on in Ukraine, something I support.
2. I genuinely can’t talk but a little about it because it could endanger lives.
3. I really did run across it on Twitter. Including the part where “don’t say anything more because you’re endangering people”.
4. I mentioned it to give a certain poster some hope.
5. I think it will be revealed openly eventually, and if I catch when that is I’ll say something.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1500902154994921476?s=20&t=lMnCeERS...

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1500909383491936261

Really doesn’t look like it’ll go anywhere soon. Various Polish officials hum and haw but their Prime Minister (not the President) keeps saying no. Psaki talks up the Biden administration’s work on the matter while suggesting it’s incredibly complicated: https://www.twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1500929211254640648
NATO seems kind of dysfunctional. You have to wonder if an invocation of Article 5 would be first met by days of legalistic deliberation over what it really meant in context.

 It's simultaneously complicated and simple. The US wants to ship Ukraine fighter planes from Holand, but Holand doesn't want to have itself be the staging point for the Planes delivery,  Is likely fearing that Russia will retaliate wis talliate with bombings if not invasion.

Wondering if Slovakia, hungry, and/or Romania all might be alternatives for NATO warplane deliveries?

It's not so simple to me - the direct threat seems empty. Poland is shipping in lethal aid already in sums that exceed the financial (though perhaps not the strategic) value of the planes. It can send in the planes without weapons attached (as Romania did) to avoid being brought into the war.* IIRC there is quite a lot of Cold War precedent here.

Maybe they are worried that sending in such large equipment will result in Lviv/the border regions inside Ukraine being bombed to disrupt supplies, but if Ukraine holds out long enough without the extra aircraft, Russia is likely to consider disrupting its supplies anyway. One way to dissuade Russia from doing this is to give Ukraine a better airforce and air defences, so that the RuAF does not feel confident it can make lots of airstrikes in the west of the country.

*What it can't do, in this case, is avoid drawing Russia's ire. It won't start a war, but it will put Poland in Putin's crosshairs if/when Russia wins in Ukraine. Russia could try to punish Poland in many ways without starting a war (it could stop selling them energy, for instance), and if they take Ukraine, they might be able to go further by funding criminals/insurgents to cause trouble on Poland's border. This would be a very risky move on Russia's part, though, and I'm not sure it would be feasibly considered by anyone.

 You are preaching to the choir about why it is crucial to do this Ando this and how I personally am hoping poland will ultimately play ball. I think you're 2nd paragraph correctly identifies the Polish  Concerns. In terms of intrusiveness into the Ukraine, and especially in terms of how much fighter jets can tip the balance away from the Russians as opposed to even anti tank and anti air missiles, the ship in a fighter jet becomes substantially potentially more of a gamble for Poland, ,  Even if I agree with your assessment as to why it is in their long term interests

[Badger]

As much as Russians are suffering from the effects of sanctions, they can still take solace in McDonalds (for now):

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1500954446066593794

 I just wrote an email to the customer service Addresses for PepsiCo and McDonald's McDonald's, readily available at the respective websites. Any advice that although my family uses their products regularly come out we henceforth will cease to do so, as Well As members of our small business, until until they pull out of Russia while Ukraine is under attack, like other companies such as Microsoft and Coca-Cola.

As I stated in each, if Ukrainians can soldier on without heat, electricity, running water, or food, let alone the knowledge that they or their family members won't be killed by indiscriminate rushing bombing and rocket attacks, that I can live without my beloved Doritos/quarter pounders for as long as necessary.

IConcluded my email to Pepsi CO by saying ""Coke did the right thing here. When will you?"

And for those of you taking the "boycott never work" stance, keep in mind that Coke was resisting calls for divestment as well but flipped in response to public pressure in just the last couple days.

[NOVA Green]

OVD Update on the aftermath of Yesterday's massive Anti-War Demos in Russia.

Wish I had a way to contribute to their work as Russia turns into a full-blown totalitarian state.

"As is usual on days after a large protest, today is a day of administrative court hearings and of new information about what happened at police stations yesterday evening. More and more information is coming in about police at stations in Moscow and St. Petersburg using force and pressuring people who were detained on March 6th. People report threats, demands that they refuse legal services, and forced photographs for police files.



In one instance, police forced detainees to stand on their feet for many hours, in other instance officers demanded that they “give phone numbers of people who also oppose the military operation.” Throughout the country, court hearings are beginning for those arrested during the protests: they are receiving 15 days of jail time or fines of several hundred thousand rubles. In various cities, human rights lawyers have not been allowed into administrative court hearings.



An Orthodox priest in the Kostroma region is being prosecuted for an anti-war sermon, and in a case in Krasnoyarsk, someone received a 30,000 ruble fine for writing “No to War!” in the snow.



In Kazan, the mother of a newborn baby was held for over 24 hours at the police station for participating in an anti-war protest. There have already been 60 fines handed out, ranging from 30,000 to 60,000 rubles, for violations under the new Administrative Code article on discrediting the Russian military."


https://www.24live.co/live/Uk531?n=3001850218643099743

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Here's the composition of the Russian convoy recently spotted in an attempt to fix their garbage logistics

I think the one in the lower left is a Lada Niva.

Yeah, that’s a Lada Niva. Their turn signals are above the lights, which always struck me as weird, but it does help ID them.

Does anyone remember her?

https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1499289678868058112

Russian Ginny Weasley?

[WMS]

This follows up on what NOVA Green just posted:
https://twitter.com/lindyli/status/1500261701819805697?s=21
Note the survivor of the Siege of Leningrad getting detained by Putin’s thugs.

Some good news:
https://twitter.com/biz_ukraine_mag/status/1500891391563599880?s=21
Note the multiethnic range of the volunteers.

This sounds like a false-flag set up for something horrible:
https://twitter.com/xsovietnews/status/1500856307171135501?s=21
I mean WMD-usage levels of horrible.

And far, far, too much evidence of Russian atrocities.

[Mike88]

Protesters projected the Ukrainian flag in the facade of the Russian Embassy in Lisbon:

https://twitter.com/carlosnlopes/status/1500966663797325826

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Could Putin use the WNBA star as a bargaining chip with the US?

[walleye26]

At what point do you think the US and NATO would legitimately use our militaries to intervene? Like, if Russia attacks Georgia to take it over, then Kazakhstan, then Moldova, like at some point we would draw a line right?

What do you think we would do if Russia nuked Kyiv? Like, a straight up Tsar Bomba on Kyiv, killing all 3M inhabitants?

What if Russian troops kidnapped Zelenskyy and publicly executed him? What about a massive cyberattack on NATO countries power grids?

[NOVA Green]

So hey--- not sure how much "info-dumps" and "walls of text" everyone wants, since I know this thread isn't getting viewed as often now that Russia's War in Ukraine is starting to become a bit more static in many places.

I would like to continue sharing info of interest, especially items that for many (including viewers and not just members of Atlas) that are hidden behind the "Paywalls".

Am asking on behalf of both Internal and External customers.

For me, I frequently find the written word better than the images and Tweets, but recognize that sometimes that can be a long read, even if I only do snippets of really long articles.

Welcome to suggetions!   

So for now, will just post a few links to some longer reads of interest, but more than willing to do selective excerpts if there is interest out there, with a brief summary:

New York Times: "With new limits on media, Putin closes a door on Russia’s ‘openness.’"

*** Really good 3-5 minute read about how Russia's War in Ukraine has basically allowed Putin to completely shut down what once had pretty free press and internet access ***

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/07/world/europe/russia-ukraine-putin-media.html

New York Times: "Visa and Mastercard suspensions leave fleeing Russians without access to their money..’"

*** Basically what the article title says--- 1-2 minute read ***

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/07/world/ukraine-russia-war/visa-mastercard-russia

Wall Street Journal: "New York Times: "Russia’s Military Chief Promised Quick Victory in Ukraine, but Now Faces a Potential Quagmire’"’"

*** Solid 5 minute read about the failure of Russian military modernization and the failure of his Defense Chief Shoigu to deliver results in Ukraine  ***

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-military-chief-promised-quick-victory-in-ukraine-but-now-faces-a-potential-quagmire-11646582366

This is just a summary of a couple longer articles which I intentionally chose not to post in my traditional style, but if of interest can certainly do so.

[It’s so Joever]

This follows up on what NOVA Green just posted:
https://twitter.com/lindyli/status/1500261701819805697?s=21
Note the survivor of the Siege of Leningrad getting detained by Putin’s thugs.

Some good news:
https://twitter.com/biz_ukraine_mag/status/1500891391563599880?s=21
Note the multiethnic range of the volunteers.

This sounds like a false-flag set up for something horrible:
https://twitter.com/xsovietnews/status/1500856307171135501?s=21
I mean WMD-usage levels of horrible.

And far, far, too much evidence of Russian atrocities.

Biological weapons…
ATLAS ARE YOU READING THIS?!
Please tell me this changes your stance on intervention people, forget nuclear war, Russia is about to create another pandemic.

[NOVA Green]

Could Putin use the WNBA star as a bargaining chip with the US?

Well.... pretty sure that this wouldn't be the first time an American College student has been busted overseas with possession of marijuana substances.

Still, right now pretty sure there are tens of thousands of American citizens in a wide variety of backgrounds that theoretically could be viewed as "bargaining chips with the US"....

Likewise in the United States, there are tons of Russian Nationals from a wide variety of backgrounds who theoretically could be deported to Russia...

Getting caught with dope in Russia as an American at this time was probably a very very bad idea, and doubt that ordinary Russians caught with weed / hash / Cannabis vape are likely facing any major penalties, despite the fact that Russian drug addiction increased dramatically as a result of their War in Afghanistan (Basically the equivalent of their Vietnam).

Very much doubt the American athlete will be used as any kind of "bargaining chip", and although it's not entirely implausible that it was planted on her by corrupt cops, this is gonna be one of those things that gets settled without the US Gvt changing their positions on Ukraine.

[NOVA Green]

SNIP

This sounds like a false-flag set up for something horrible:
https://twitter.com/xsovietnews/status/1500856307171135501?s=21
I mean WMD-usage levels of horrible.

And far, far, too much evidence of Russian atrocities.

Biological weapons…
ATLAS ARE YOU READING THIS?!
Please tell me this changes your stance on intervention people, forget nuclear war, Russia is about to create another pandemic.

1.) We are intervening

2.) Putin learned it from Trump "Wuhan Virus" & "China Flu" and Bush Jr. "Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction"

US Cultural export products run amok...   

3.) This is clearly intended for domestic Russian propaganda and not an external audience

4.) This really is kinda sorta of Uber-Dooming, now that most observers don't think we're on the verge of WW III.

[Storr]

At what point do you think the US and NATO would legitimately use our militaries to intervene? Like, if Russia attacks Georgia to take it over, then Kazakhstan, then Moldova, like at some point we would draw a line right?

What do you think we would do if Russia nuked Kyiv? Like, a straight up Tsar Bomba on Kyiv, killing all 3M inhabitants?

What if Russian troops kidnapped Zelenskyy and publicly executed him? What about a massive cyberattack on NATO countries power grids?

An obvious answer is if a NATO country is attacked. But beyond that? If Ukraine starts to fail. I don't know if that means the fall of Kyiv or Russians on the doorstep of Poland. But NATO will not let Zelensky's government fall, just like the Chinese and Soviet Union did not allow North Korea fall in 1950.

[Hollywood]

Could Putin use the WNBA star as a bargaining chip with the US?

Is she even worth anything?  Her income is derived from the charity that the male basketball players generate by being talented entertainers while the entirety of WNBA is loses huge sums of money to produce their farce of season.  She's widely hated by the fans for her sexually abusive comments, and her ludicrous claims of victimhood cause society doesn't see it fit to let her steal more money from the guys that earn it.  

But seriously, they'll get her back in exchange for something valuable.  Trump could probably get ungrateful butt back quickly.  

[GoTfan]

I genuinely don't know if Ukraine will even exist in a month. The Russians will not accept anything less than their current demands.
 

[It’s so Joever]

I genuinely don't know if Ukraine will even exist in a month. The Russians will not accept anything less than their current demands.
 

Well this is what you doves wanted!