Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Ukraine Claims it shot down two Russian jets over Kiev today per NYT 20 minutes ago:

"Ukraine says it shot down two Russian airplanes over Kyiv.

Ukrainian jets and an antiaircraft missile shot down two Russian airplanes over the city of Kyiv and in a nearby area, the commander of the Ukrainian military said in a statement on Monday evening.

Several large explosions were heard in central Kyiv after an air-raid siren sounded, but it was not immediately possible to confirm the downing of Russian airplanes.

Western governments have said Ukraine’s air defense systems are still operating 12 days into the war and that most of its air force is intact. Valery Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian Army commander, said one Russian plane was shot down over the city at 8:30 p.m. and that a second was shot down in aerial combat near the capital. "




https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/07/world/ukraine-russia-war/ukraine-says-it-shot-down-two-russian-airplanes-over-kyiv

[Middle-aged Europe]

Finally a true freedom trucker!

https://mobile.twitter.com/rtenews/status/1500838594671529993


https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1500859929829285889

[President Johnson]

Finally a true freedom trucker!

https://mobile.twitter.com/rtenews/status/1500838594671529993

I actually don't think this is a legitimate form of protest in Western countries.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1500762001072705539?s=20&t=QTWEqyNdf...

[pppolitics]

Does anyone remember her?

https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1499289678868058112

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1500751560166588416

[NOVA Green]

Another day.... another rebellion in a Russian Occupied Town in Ukraine per CNN ~20 minutes ago.

"Russian troops clash with protesters and fire weapons in Ukraine's Chaplynka

Protesting residents of Chaplynka are the latest Ukrainians to clash with Russian military forces occupying their town, videos from Monday show.

CNN has geolocated and confirmed the authenticity of the videos. 

Dozens of Russian troops are seen in the videos, set up in a line at an intersection on the eastern side of Chaplynka, more than 300 miles south of Kyiv. Chaplynka is on the southern side of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region and is located deep within Russian-occupied territory in Ukraine.

Dozens of protesters are also seen in the videos.   

"Idi domoy," some in the crowd chant — "go home" in Russian. 
"Idi dodomu," others in the crowd chant — "go home" in Ukrainian.   
Gunshots are then heard in the video, but no one appears hurt.

The crowd doesn't budge. "Go home boys, go back home," someone is heard yelling.   

"

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-07-22/index.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Milan_Z_/status/1500872350417494022


https://twitter.com/markets/status/1500938364488400897

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1500909383491936261

Really doesn’t look like it’ll go anywhere soon. Various Polish officials hum and haw but their Prime Minister (not the President) keeps saying no. Psaki talks up the Biden administration’s work on the matter while suggesting it’s incredibly complicated: https://www.twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1500929211254640648
NATO seems kind of dysfunctional. You have to wonder if an invocation of Article 5 would be first met by days of legalistic deliberation over what it really meant in context.

[It’s so Joever]

Does anyone remember her?

https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1499289678868058112

She went to my university…she still is talked about to this day.

[Storr]

That Russian air superiority sure is....something.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1500943524996554753?s=20&t=UOlCpcf5Q_D...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1500909383491936261

Really doesn’t look like it’ll go anywhere soon. Various Polish officials hum and haw but their Prime Minister (not the President) keeps saying no. Psaki talks up the Biden administration’s work on the matter while suggesting it’s incredibly complicated: https://www.twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1500929211254640648
NATO seems kind of dysfunctional. You have to wonder if an invocation of Article 5 would be first met by days of legalistic deliberation over what it really meant in context.

Can't we just do a straight-up trade?

It would then be us, not Poland, who is sending the jets.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/boccaSanta/status/1500947989870882818

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/kgorchinskaya/status/1500840773822169090

Oh thank gosh, for a second I would have had to stop supporting Ukraine over war crimes, glad it was a mistake by media!

What we all predicted 21st century warfare would consist of: drones vs. jars of pickled vegetables.

[WMS]

I have no doubt Ukraine is getting some kind of help from NATO beyond intel, weapons, and ant-tank missiles that is currently being kept secret.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1500888160259117056?s=20&t=ddk73d9RCVf...

Yes. Hasn’t been said yet. If and when it gets revealed openly then I can confirm it.

Damn that sounds even more like Sam Spade, but can’t be avoided.

[Person Man]

I have no doubt Ukraine is getting some kind of help from NATO beyond intel, weapons, and ant-tank missiles that is currently being kept secret.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1500888160259117056?s=20&t=ddk73d9RCVf...

Yes. Hasn’t been said yet. If and when it gets revealed openly then I can confirm it.

Damn that sounds even more like Sam Spade, but can’t be avoided.

There’s a lot of new forum people. They don’t know who he is.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1500909383491936261

Really doesn’t look like it’ll go anywhere soon. Various Polish officials hum and haw but their Prime Minister (not the President) keeps saying no. Psaki talks up the Biden administration’s work on the matter while suggesting it’s incredibly complicated: https://www.twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1500929211254640648
NATO seems kind of dysfunctional. You have to wonder if an invocation of Article 5 would be first met by days of legalistic deliberation over what it really meant in context.

Can't we just do a straight-up trade?

It would then be us, not Poland, who is sending the jets.

They’d still need to be launched from some European base and pass through a European country’s airspace. If Poland is backing off from this because it does not want to become especially hated by Russia after the Ukranian war is over, then even selling the jets to the US (which would obviously send them to Ukraine) would cause that.

I don’t think the escalation is a genuine concern (Romania had no issue returning a Su-27 to Ukraine) so much as a long-term deterioration in relations caused by Polish support. Additionally, the US claims to have administrative issues around the backfilling procedure (given Psaki’s statement). Perhaps they are haggling over which replacements Poland will get and how much they will cost. Blinker mentioned subsidies earlier, not free transfer, so it seems the US does not intend to simply write the Poles a blank cheque (which would be the fastest, albeit most expensive, way to do this).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone remember this from the early days of the uprising against Gaddafi? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/feb/21/libya-pilots-flee-to-malta

Wondering if we'll see any Russian pilots do this especially since getting shot down is likely the alternative. At least in Libya the opposition had no air force or air defense at all until NATO intervened.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1500909383491936261

Really doesn’t look like it’ll go anywhere soon. Various Polish officials hum and haw but their Prime Minister (not the President) keeps saying no. Psaki talks up the Biden administration’s work on the matter while suggesting it’s incredibly complicated: https://www.twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1500929211254640648
NATO seems kind of dysfunctional. You have to wonder if an invocation of Article 5 would be first met by days of legalistic deliberation over what it really meant in context.

 It's simultaneously complicated and simple. The US wants to ship Ukraine fighter planes from Poland, but Poland doesn't want to have itself be the staging point for the Planes delivery,  likely fearing that Russia will retaliate with bombings if not invasion.

Wondering if Slovakia, hungry, and/or Romania all might be alternatives for NATO warplane deliveries?

[Frodo]

As much as Russians are suffering from the effects of sanctions, they can still take solace in McDonalds (for now):

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1500954446066593794

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As much as Russians are suffering from the effects of sanctions, they can still take solace in McDonalds (for now):

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1500954446066593794

But can they still eat at Pizza Hut? Asking the real questions here....

[walleye26]

Is there some sort of company relations line for McDonald’s, Pepsi, and these companies I can call? I want to call and get them to stop their Russian operations.

[Silent Hunter]

Is there some sort of company relations line for McDonald’s, Pepsi, and these companies I can call? I want to call and get them to stop their Russian operations.

Look on their corporate websites, but many are franchised operations:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/07/ukraine-news-mcdonalds-declines-to-comment-on-war-has-exposure-in-russia.html

Also, they would be putting their local employees out of a job, so that's something you would have to consider.

[Badger]

As much as Russians are suffering from the effects of sanctions, they can still take solace in McDonalds (for now):

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1500954446066593794

But can they still eat at Pizza Hut? Asking the real questions here....

 PepsiCo sold it and it's other fast food chains like Taco Bell and KFC  Almost a quarter century ago

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1500909383491936261

Really doesn’t look like it’ll go anywhere soon. Various Polish officials hum and haw but their Prime Minister (not the President) keeps saying no. Psaki talks up the Biden administration’s work on the matter while suggesting it’s incredibly complicated: https://www.twitter.com/ABCPolitics/status/1500929211254640648
NATO seems kind of dysfunctional. You have to wonder if an invocation of Article 5 would be first met by days of legalistic deliberation over what it really meant in context.

 It's simultaneously complicated and simple. The US wants to ship Ukraine fighter planes from Holand, but Holand doesn't want to have itself be the staging point for the Planes delivery,  Is likely fearing that Russia will retaliate wis talliate with bombings if not invasion.

Wondering if Slovakia, hungry, and/or Romania all might be alternatives for NATO warplane deliveries?

It's not so simple to me - the direct threat seems empty. Poland is shipping in lethal aid already in sums that exceed the financial (though perhaps not the strategic) value of the planes. It can send in the planes without weapons attached (as Romania did) to avoid being brought into the war.* IIRC there is quite a lot of Cold War precedent here.

Maybe they are worried that sending in such large equipment will result in Lviv/the border regions inside Ukraine being bombed to disrupt supplies, but if Ukraine holds out long enough without the extra aircraft, Russia is likely to consider disrupting its supplies anyway. One way to dissuade Russia from doing this is to give Ukraine a better airforce and air defences, so that the RuAF does not feel confident it can make lots of airstrikes in the west of the country.

*What it can't do, in this case, is avoid drawing Russia's ire. It won't start a war, but it will put Poland in Putin's crosshairs if/when Russia wins in Ukraine. Russia could try to punish Poland in many ways without starting a war (it could stop selling them energy, for instance), and if they take Ukraine, they might be able to go further by funding criminals/insurgents to cause trouble on Poland's border. This would be a very risky move on Russia's part, though, and I'm not sure it would be feasibly considered by anyone.