Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

British MoD intelligence update, there's less in this one than compared to previous days:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498551511445553158

We've never seen an advanced modern military operate without air superiority.

The most recent I can think of would be the USAF in Korea. Soviet pilots secretly began flying for the Chinese resulting in heavy American losses in the infamous "MiG Alley". But, it's a teeny stretch to call Korea a modern conflict. Maybe one of the Pakistan-India wars didn't involve one side with air superiority? I'm not sure. Even if neither nation gained air superiority, it's a questionable argument to make that they had "advanced modern" militaries.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

I've been trying to find new maps of the current situation on the ground. This is the best one that I could find but if there are more recent and accurate ones it should be posted down below.



https://reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/t3oubd/current_state_of_russian_invasion_of_ukraine_as/

[Storr]

Spacing? You'd need just one grenade or RPG.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1498569467445587969?s=20&t=85_qcqO...

[Logical]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-11

Key Takeaways

• Russia deployed additional heavy forces and artillery that it has so far failed to employ in assaults on Kyiv to the city’s western approach on February 27-28. Russian forces will likely launch a renewed assault on western Kyiv on March 1.
• Russian forces began using heavy artillery against central Kharkiv on February 28, indicating a dangerous inflection in Russian operations as the Kremlin chooses to use air and artillery assets it has held in reserve to date.
• Russian forces resumed limited advances in northeastern Ukraine on February 28 after an operational pause on February 26-27.
• Russian and proxy forces resumed assaults on Ukrainian forces defending Mariupol from the east and deployed additional artillery and anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) assets to the Mariupol front line on February 28. Russian forces may attempt a renewed assault on Mariupol in the coming days.
• Russian forces increasingly targeted Ukrainian airfields and logistics centers on February 28, particularly in western Ukraine. Russia likely seeks to ground the Ukrainian air force and interdict the ability of Western states to resupply the Ukrainian military.
• Russian and Belarusian forces may be preparing for an additional line of advance from Belarus into western Ukraine.
• Russian successes in southern Ukraine are the most dangerous and threaten to unhinge Ukraine’s successful defenses and rearguard actions to the north and northeast.
• Russian troops are facing growing morale and logistics issues, predictable consequences of the poor planning, coordination, and execution of attacks along Ukraine’s northern border.

[brucejoel99]

British MoD intelligence update, there's less in this one than compared to previous days:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498551511445553158

We've never seen an advanced modern military operate without air superiority.

The most recent I can think of would be the USAF in Korea. Soviet pilots secretly began flying for the Chinese resulting in heavy American losses in the infamous "MiG Alley". But, it's a teeny stretch to call Korea a modern conflict. Maybe one of the Pakistan-India wars didn't involve one side with air superiority? I'm not sure. Even if neither nation gained air superiority, it's a questionable argument to make that they had "advanced modern" militaries.

We never held air superiority over North Vietnam, but I wouldn't even call that modern.

[OSR stands with Israel]

British MoD intelligence update, there's less in this one than compared to previous days:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498551511445553158

We've never seen an advanced modern military operate without air superiority.

The most recent I can think of would be the USAF in Korea. Soviet pilots secretly began flying for the Chinese resulting in heavy American losses in the infamous "MiG Alley". But, it's a teeny stretch to call Korea a modern conflict. Maybe one of the Pakistan-India wars didn't involve one side with air superiority? I'm not sure. Even if neither nation gained air superiority, it's a questionable argument to make that they had "advanced modern" militaries.

We never held air superiority over North Vietnam, but I wouldn't even call that modern.

We didnt even invade North Vietnam

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

New Zealand is now trying to figure out how to sanction Russia as a result of the Invasion of Ukraine per Wall Street Journal from an hour or so back:

(Snipped)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-allies-are-ramping-up-sanctions-on-russia-but-one-country-is-sitting-out-11646111946?st=8vu5ywxqr6pt1on&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

I’d love to see NZ adopt the Magnitsky Act. Glad to see that National would support it.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

British MoD intelligence update, there's less in this one than compared to previous days:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498551511445553158

We've never seen an advanced modern military operate without air superiority.

The most recent I can think of would be the USAF in Korea. Soviet pilots secretly began flying for the Chinese resulting in heavy American losses in the infamous "MiG Alley". But, it's a teeny stretch to call Korea a modern conflict. Maybe one of the Pakistan-India wars didn't involve one side with air superiority? I'm not sure. Even if neither nation gained air superiority, it's a questionable argument to make that they had "advanced modern" militaries.

We never held air superiority over North Vietnam, but I wouldn't even call that modern.

We didnt even invade North Vietnam

We did bomb it, though.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

British MoD intelligence update, there's less in this one than compared to previous days:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498551511445553158

We've never seen an advanced modern military operate without air superiority.

The most recent I can think of would be the USAF in Korea. Soviet pilots secretly began flying for the Chinese resulting in heavy American losses in the infamous "MiG Alley". But, it's a teeny stretch to call Korea a modern conflict. Maybe one of the Pakistan-India wars didn't involve one side with air superiority? I'm not sure. Even if neither nation gained air superiority, it's a questionable argument to make that they had "advanced modern" militaries.

We never held air superiority over North Vietnam, but I wouldn't even call that modern.

We didnt even invade North Vietnam

We invaded most of it before China joined the war.

[Yoda]

Bolsonaro is not on Russia's side. He just refuses to take Ukraine's side.
Maduro on the other hand...

‘Neutral’ and ‘On Russia’s side’ is quite a fine distinction these days.

Only because the Western narrative decided to force places that aren’t involved with this to pick a side.

Brazil has long been a neutral country, that’s our main diplomatic approach since the 90s. We don’t want enemies. Bolsonaro adopting neutral stance, against these harsh sanctions against Russia, is something that even a leftist government would support because it’s close to a consensus approach:

https://www.twitter.com/BrazilBrian/status/1498370398496477191
At least on this some level of long-term consistency is maintained although they messed on the UN vote. Follows neutrality position and helps to not isolate Russia even more. Literally the first thing this government does in almost 4 years that isn’t completely dumb and a reason of shame. This isn’t our conflict and it’s wrong to take any side, stay friends with both US and Russia in order to find a middle ground solution.

Especially when there’s the risk of nuclear conflict, it’s scary how some people here want to escalate things so aggressively when them and their countries are not even involved on this.

Well then, under your logic Brazil should follow the same stance if the U.S. invaded, say, Cuba?

I somehow doubt that would be the case, tankie.

Neither USA or RUSSIA or CHINA. Cuba, Mexico, Venezuela, Argentina are Latin American neighbors and therefore ARE our problem. Other places far away are not.

If everyone who doesn’t side with your cause is a “tankie” you will find not much sympathy here, as the mainstream forces here on both right and left support neutrality.

If you don’t respect or sympathize with the Latin American background and perspective, there’s not much reason for people to try to look through the Eastern European one either.

The Ukrainian cause is valid, but there’s a whole context behind it that relates to each place differently. And that’s okay.

You won’t find this “shame rhetoric forcing into submission to what I want” to work that much here within our diplomacy or with me. I favor respectful debates.

The problem is that if a great power attacks a smaller neighbor trying to annex it you can't be genuinely neutral as "neutrality" means you accept the aggression as a fait accompli. It's a faux neutrality. And in a globalized world "it's far away, so not our problem" is hogwash. If big democracies like India and Brazil stay "faux neutral" in the face of naked aggression they're undermining the rule based world order, which all democracies - not just Western ones - should have an interest in upholding.

Yup. Being truly neutral in a situation like this means you are effectively on the side of the oppressor.

[Yoda]

Not going to be posting all Night long, but here is one of those "Human Interest Stories" (Not my normal bag), in this case about a Ukrainian mechanic trying to sabotage a Super Yacht in Spain, which might indicate about some of the Ukrainian Diaspora scattered around Western Europe might be feeling these days....

*** WARNING: DO NOT ATTEMPT TO PERFORM AT HOME ***

(Long article so either buy your own subscription or use a monthly freebie).   

"A Ukrainian mechanic heard about attacks in Kyiv, so he tried to sink a superyacht

By Brittany Shammas and Paulina Villegas8:36 p.m.

Taras Ostapchuk was on a break from his job as a yacht mechanic Saturday when he pulled up a news report on his cellphone.

Watching footage of a Russian missile striking an apartment building in Kyiv, the 55-year-old Ukrainian was devastated. Then he became angry because, by his account, the weapon may have been supplied by his boss.

The owner of the yacht he worked on — the $7 million Lady Anastasia, docked at the luxe Port Adriano on the Spanish island of Mallorca — is a Russian arms tycoon, he told authorities and reporters. The Washington Post was unable to confirm the yacht’s ownership Monday.

Ostapchuk decided to seek vengeance for his country — and sink the yacht.

“I told myself: ‘What do I need a job for if I don’t have a country?’ ” he told the Spanish newspaper Ultima Hora.

Ostapchuk, who was arrested by the Civil Guard national police, said in court testimony that he viewed his boss as a criminal because he sells weapons that could have been used against Ukrainians.

In court testimony and in media interviews, Ostapchuk described opening a valve in the Lady Anastasia’s machine room and another in its crew area. Not wanting to harm anyone, he told those aboard to abandon ship.

Three crew members protested, yelling that Ostapchuk was crazy. He reminded them that they, too, were Ukrainian and that their homeland was being attacked.

...."



https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/28/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news/#link-6LTFCKIKSRGZFKOA2MHFEJCFKI

Ukranians are something else. More power to this guy. I hope he ends up getting off of the charges. I do wish he had disabled the yacht though so it could be seized and eventually sold off with the proceeds going to Ukranian refugees. I understand his anger and his actions though.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/NewsfeedUkraine/status/1498595154868981762

[jaichind]

RUB actually rallied to around 98 before falling back to around 101.  It seems those that had invested in Russia are trying to get out as speculators are coming in to buy on what they think are firesale prices.  With Putin's counter-sanctions of Russian companies not servicing foreign debt and clearly not issuing more foreign debt, the Russian ETFs trading in Europe continues their fall.  They are now trading below 2016 levels are testing 2008-2009 levels.  I guess the picture is foreign investors (including Russians investing in foreign currency terms from abroad)  in Russian assets are getting wiped out due to the collapse of the ability to move capital in and out of Russia while RUB fell but are stabilizing due to the continuation of Russian international trade.

[Storr]

Seems like old Luka might have actually done it (obviously Ukrainian source, so it could be incorrect/propaganda):

This makes me wonder about Russian Bear, if I remember correctly he's Belarusian and hasn't been online since the first or second day of fighting.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1498595079430328321?s=20&t=fsiu9gsk...

[Logical]

Russian assault into Mariupol has begun. Don't expect any live update, power has been cut.
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498579101040648192?t=Hx4bR9hta5pF_EPHutkVCw&...

[Storr]

Seems like old Luka might have actually done it (obviously Ukrainian source, so it could be incorrect/propaganda):

This makes me wonder about Russian Bear, if I remember correctly he's Belarusian and hasn't been online since the first or second day of fighting.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1498595079430328321?s=20&t=fsiu9gsk...

Politico published it: https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-russia-war-ukraine/

[😥]

What is happening now in Ukraine is the genocide of the Ukrainian people. If we talk about me, everything is calm in my region, except for the shelling of military units. I have now signed up for territorial defense and am preparing to defend my country

[Middle-aged Europe]

What is happening now in Ukraine is the genocide of the Ukrainian people. If we talk about me, everything is calm in my region, except for the shelling of military units. I have now signed up for territorial defense and am preparing to defend my country

Godspeed and the best of luck to you, your family, your friends, and your comrades.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Belarus was already having anti-war protests. I could see there being a lot of unrest there given the protests they had a year ago.

[Storr]

Seems like old Luka might have actually done it (obviously Ukrainian source, so it could be incorrect/propaganda):

This makes me wonder about Russian Bear, if I remember correctly he's Belarusian and hasn't been online since the first or second day of fighting.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1498595079430328321?s=20&t=fsiu9gsk...

Politico published it: https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-russia-war-ukraine/

Now the Independent as well. This could end very badly for the Potato King.

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1498611523685605376?s=20&t=tNsi6ZBYLC...

[Storr]

Looking for twitter updates on the Belarus situation and I found it the worst take on the war:

https://twitter.com/italian69572412/status/1497410104559165442?s=20&t=tNsi6Z...

Imagine non-ironically using cringe and based to describe a government.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

What is happening now in Ukraine is the genocide of the Ukrainian people. If we talk about me, everything is calm in my region, except for the shelling of military units. I have now signed up for territorial defense and am preparing to defend my country

I am sorry to bring this up, but in the event that the worst happens to you, is there a way for those of us who can help to keep track of your family? Are they with family in the Ukraine or elsewhere?

You have a wife and two children, correct? In the event that they make it to Germany, my apartment is too small for them, but i would be happy to keep in touch with them and support them in any way possible, and I'm sure others here would be glad to help (financially, material-wise, network, etc.).

EDIT - sent PM with personal contact details

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

What is happening now in Ukraine is the genocide of the Ukrainian people. If we talk about me, everything is calm in my region, except for the shelling of military units. I have now signed up for territorial defense and am preparing to defend my country

Good luck, and God bless.

[pppolitics]

[Middle-aged Europe]

The four staffers in former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Bundestag office have resigned in protest against Schröder's continued presence on the boards of Russian energy companies.

Meanwhile, former Left Party chair Gregor Gysi has practically accused his party colleague Sahra Wagenknecht, until last week probably Germany's most prominent Putin advocate on the left side of the political spectrum, of being a sociopath (incapable of feeling emotions).