Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

The US has solid intelligence that Putin is frustrated and expressing unusual bursts of anger at people in his inner circle over the state of the military campaign so far and the worldwide condemnation of his actions

Oh boohoo.

Tbf, this isn't just interesting because "Putin's mad." It's interesting because the West is releasing this knowing full well that it'll feed into Putin's paranoia about a rat in his inner circle. Recall, he just spent the weekend convening the top oligarchs to him at his Ural mountain lair, so at least one of said oligarchs in the room with him must not like him anymore.

Or we just tapped the phones.

But please Mr. Putin, do start turning on those guys. I’m sure none of the basically mob bosses you’ve cost millions and now are physically threatening will do anything rash.

It's waaay more likely that we have an asset in play. Most of these convos wouldn't be conducted on any kind of an electric system, & any that are would obviously be heavily encrypted. Additionally, most of these oligarchs have some kind of American ties, so it wouldn't be all that difficult for our intelligence apparatus to find one who'd be willing to cooperate.

Is it obvious, given how loose the military's infosec in the field has turned out to be?

That aside, I do agree with you that we've probably turned at least one of the oligarchs by now, in addition to any signals intelligence or bugging work going on.

Yes, high-level comms for Putin himself would always be heavily encrypted.

[John Dule]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

Why are you on an election discussion website when you clearly don't think elections should exist?

It's not an issue of censorship versus freedom. Besides, this forum is not averse to censorship in concept, after all it cheered feverishly when Trump was banned from Twitter and Facebook which may have been a more effective act of censorship than many  governments are capable. It's an issue of national security and not allowing critical media of communication to be controlled by foreign companies that may turn hostile. Facebook and Twitter are clearly enemies of Russia right now, that's their right as a private company but then Russia shouldn't be tolerating an enemy operating in their country during wartime, or anytime for that matter.

There is an obvious difference between private censorship and state censorship. For instance, I might think that you should be permanently banned from this site because you are a fascist useful idiot, an authoritarian stooge, a Wumao 50 cent shill, a gutless bloodthirsty keyboard warrior, and worst of all a Jerseyite. Nevertheless, I would still think you should be free to say what you want in the public sphere though. Hypothetically.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't it been speculated that Putin's bunker is at or near Yekaterinburg?

[NOVA Green]

Australia now calling for a review of Russian membership in the G-20 per one hour ago from the Wall Street Journal:

(Limited quoting, buy your own, etc...)

"Russia's G-20 Participation Must Be Reviewed, Australian Leader Says

Russia's involvement in the Group of 20 major economies must be reviewed following its invasion of Ukraine, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said.

He said Russia's ongoing participation in the G-20 is being discussed with Indonesia, which chairs the group this year.

"The G-20 has a lot of members and that's a lot of interests to manage, and we want to support Indonesia in successfully chairing the G-20 this year, but I think there has been a very clear view expressed particularly by countries like Australia, G-7 countries: this will need to be managed," Mr. Morrison said.

...."


https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-01/card/russia-s-g-20-participation-must-be-reviewed-australian-leader-says-HsesjNbYHadDVtOs4GZM

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

Why are you on an election discussion website when you clearly don't think elections should exist?

It's not an issue of censorship versus freedom. Besides, this forum is not averse to censorship in concept, after all it cheered feverishly when Trump was banned from Twitter and Facebook which may have been a more effective act of censorship than many  governments are capable. It's an issue of national security and not allowing critical media of communication to be controlled by foreign companies that may turn hostile. Facebook and Twitter are clearly enemies of Russia right now, that's their right as a private company but then Russia shouldn't be tolerating an enemy operating in their country during wartime, or anytime for that matter.

There is an obvious difference between private censorship and state censorship. For instance, I might think that you should be permanently banned from this site because you are a fascist useful idiot, an authoritarian stooge, a Wumao 50 cent shill, a gutless bloodthirsty keyboard warrior, and worst of all a Jerseyite. Nevertheless, I would still think you should be free to say what you want in the public sphere though. Hypothetically.

Hey now, New Jersey deserves better than its inhabitants, or at least most of the subset of its inhabitants that post regularly on this forum.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't it been speculated that Putin's bunker is at or near Yekaterinburg?

It's almost definitely in the Urals, and any given part of the Urals is a lot closer to Yekaterinburg than to most other places, yeah. It really maeks u think, considering the place's history.

[NOVA Green]

Okay... now we need some our Atlas Capitalist Comrades to interpret, but looks like it might create additional havoc for the Russian financial situation per the Wall Street Journal an hour to so ago...

Paging jaichind so he can adjust his portfolio quickly.   

(Again apologies for limited quoting but *buy your own subscription darn it! *)


"MSCI Signals Potential Exclusion of Russia From Influential Indexes

MSCI Inc. signaled it could cut Russia from many of its widely followed equity indexes as Western sanctions, capital controls and trading halts following the invasion of Ukraine make it harder for global investors to buy and sell Russian stocks.

The New York-based index compiler said it was seeking feedback from market participants on how to classify Russian shares, “up to and including the potential reclassification” of Russia as a standalone market, rather than an emerging one. It plans to say more by the end of the week, after reviewing responses.

Market assessments by MSCI and competitors such as London Stock Exchange Group PLC’s FTSE Russell unit help determine how investors allocate many billions of dollars.

....



https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-01/card/msci-signals-potential-exclusion-of-russia-from-influential-indexes-dvAJktfD8H9BFssSikB5

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't it been speculated that Putin's bunker is at or near Yekaterinburg?

It's almost definitely in the Urals, and any given part of the Urals is a lot closer to Yekaterinburg than to most other places, yeah. It really maeks u think, considering the place's history.

This might be a horrendous take but I'm thinking Putin might stage a false-flag attack on himself to be shown as a martyr like the Tsar and his family if it's true he's deliberately hiding out there.

[It’s so Joever]

I’m terrified for Kherson. Who knows what crimes Russia is committing there?

[Storr]

If the city has already been pacified, I'd understand not using armor when deploying infantry. But, I've not heard any reports of Kherson having already fallen. I guess we'll be seeing how this urban assault goes for the Russians soon enough.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498534553996218372?s=20&t=bRYD9dFiX...

[Frodo]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't it been speculated that Putin's bunker is at or near Yekaterinburg?

It's almost definitely in the Urals, and any given part of the Urals is a lot closer to Yekaterinburg than to most other places, yeah. It really maeks u think, considering the place's history.

This might be a horrendous take but I'm thinking Putin might stage a false-flag attack on himself to portray himself as a martyr like the Tsar and his family.

Well, in the event it does happen it is a good bet that at least a few of those participating in what is intended to be a 'false-flag attack' will turn it into a real one and dispatch him lest he press his finger on the nuclear trigger.  

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Ukrainian military might have just taken major casualties from an article posted on the Guardian an hour back....

"More than 70 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed after Russian artillery hit a military base in Okhtyrka, a city between Kharkiv and Kyiv, the head of the region wrote on Telegram.

Dmytro Zhyvytskyy posted photographs of the charred shell of a four-story building and rescuers searching rubble. In a later Facebook post, he said many Russian soldiers and some local residents also were killed during the fighting on Sunday. The report could not immediately be confirmed."


https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/01/ukraine-russia-latest-news-live-updates

[Storebought]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1498528669895172098?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

*Kyiv Independent*

Even if this doesn't pan out exactly, this has actuallly been a bad day for Ukraine between the barracks missile attack and Russia is successfully prising off southern Ukraine.

[Storr]

This is how it's going to be, folks:

"Near ODA Kharkiv"
https://twitter.com/_tredecim_/status/1498547328655020035?s=20&t=nzsoGLgYsRT...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

LOL, sounds like Hitler in Downfall.

[Storebought]

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498491928471654400

LOL, sounds like Hitler in Downfall.

Yes, we've heard the joke 4767 times the last half hour it was posted.

[Storr]

This is how it's going to be, folks:

"Near ODA Kharkiv"
https://twitter.com/_tredecim_/status/1498547328655020035?s=20&t=nzsoGLgYsRT...

I found the building on google maps. It's the Kharkiv Regional State Administration building.

64 Sumska St. Kharkiv

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kharkiv+Regional+State+Administration/@50.0039744,36.2373912,18.03z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x4127a0ddff854797:0x2fa9ef6cc7c98456!8m2!3d50.0042466!4d36.2362138

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This is how it's going to be, folks:

"Near ODA Kharkiv"
https://twitter.com/_tredecim_/status/1498547328655020035?s=20&t=nzsoGLgYsRT...

I'm not sure what's going on here. Is that a Russian column getting BTFO in Kharkiv, Russian artillery hitting Kharkiv, or both?

[Hnv1]

Any good analysis on the failure of Russian BTG formation so far?

There used some good maps with NATO symbols until 26.2. Are there any updated ones?

[Storr]

This is how it's going to be, folks:

"Near ODA Kharkiv"
<tweet snip>

I'm not sure what's going on here. Is that a Russian column getting BTFO in Kharkiv, Russian artillery hitting Kharkiv, or both?

A Russian missile hitting downtown Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498550854621839361?s=20&t=GMxAxR_y1...

[Storr]

Views of the aftermath. The cars in the center of the surveillance video of the strike are unrecognizable as vehicle.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1498551739385098244?s=20&t=nzsoGLgYsRT2s5...

[NOVA Green]

Any good analysis on the failure of Russian BTG formation so far?

There used some good maps with NATO symbols until 26.2. Are there any updated ones?

Are you talking about the one's Logical has been posting?

(Totally awesome which I look forward to viewing each map in new tab every time posted)

This what you're looking forward to save you searching back pages and pages?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8501609#msg8501609

[Storr]

British MoD intelligence update, there's less in this one than compared to previous days:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498551511445553158?s=20&t=C0hej14L1D-h...

[Storebought]

Warlord Kadyrov admits to losses of his Chechen irregulars in Ukraine

Admitting any losses at all is something, but this is more important:

“Yes, they kill in war, and that was their choice of profession. And these guys chose to become heroes who gave their lives for the security of countries. They had an order - to minimize losses among the civilian population of Ukraine, and they fulfilled it ... "- said the head of [Chechen brigade].

Kadyrov also called on the citizens of Ukraine to "become masters of their country" and start fighting "adherents of European propaganda." “Only in this way will we rule out further human casualties,” he concluded.

They really did expect to be greeted by peasant girls throwing sunflower garlands (as opposed to sunflower seeds...) at their feet, liberating them from their Nazi overlords.

If EU/US don't do something right now to assist Ukraine -- in a huge way -- the Russians will revert to their usual fighting style and there won't a Ukraine left.

[brucejoel99]

British MoD intelligence update, there's less in this one than compared to previous days:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1498551511445553158

We've never seen an advanced modern military operate without air superiority.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I’m terrified for Kherson. Who knows what crimes Russia is committing there?

The southern front in Ukraine is the worst front for the Ukrainians, if there is a Russian breakthrough it will happen in the south. It's been mostly a stalemate on the other fronts. Twitter and the media are mostly focusing on Kiev and Kharkov.