Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Omega21]

Lol, haram bullets

The Azov guys are known for some, ugh, unsavory world views. Hope Ukraine gets rid of them if/when they are in a stable position again.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ng_ukraine/status/1497924614865002497

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1498042188495790084

The EU coming into its own as a bloc of liberal(ish) democratic powers that is at least sometimes able to act when the US can't has been great to see.

[NOVA Green]

Financial impacts for Russia continue to mount...

Norway is freezing its assets in Russia and planning from divesting from their market per New York Times:

(Longer article on link)

"Norway’s sovereign wealth fund plans to divest from the Russian market.

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is freezing its assets in Russia and plans to divest from the Russian market, a spokeswoman for the fund said Sunday.

The $1.3 trillion fund — the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund — held 27 billion kroner, equivalent to roughly $3 billion, in assets in Russia at the end of 2021. Its Russian investments equaled 0.2 percent of the fund.

The operator of the fund, Norges Bank Investment Management, will neither buy nor sell shares in Russian assets, according to Line Aaltvedt, the fund’s spokeswoman. The fund will work with the Ministry of Finance to prepare a plan to divest from the Russian market. No timeline for the divestment was given.

...."



https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/27/world/russia-ukraine-war/norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-russia

[Storr]

Translation: Demilitarization of Russians

https://twitter.com/_tredecim_/status/1498001275719458824?s=20&t=C8fy5_LA94h...

[WMS]

I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817?s=20&t=06qxSG-uBQZFA...

It looks like an atomic bomb was deployed. The US and NATO have an obligation to wipe Russia off the face of the earth if that is the case.

I'm almost certain that isn't the case. The explosion that resulted from a missile hitting a pipeline in Kyiv yesterday looked really similar to this, and I'm confident we're seeing the same here.

Yeah. It looks more like the missile that hit Kyiv yesterday. On a side note, my Iranian American friend who I mentioned in the compucomp opinion of thread is thrilled that Putin invaded Ukraine and she keeps sending me pro-Putin propaganda in Facebook and Instagram messenger. She wants Russia, Iran, and China to conquer all of Ukraine and then go into Europe and conquer all the countries there.

Have you told her that’s not going to happen?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The only way Turkey closes the Bosphorus would be if they feel Russia is too weak/preoccupied to force the strait to reopen:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498038656875081740?s=20&t=p7zLIjGZr...

Huge news.
My guess is that Erdogan saw this as a chance to beef up his NATO credentials and win support in Ukraine, and on a personal level he probably dislikes what is going on in Ukraine as well. So he's closing the straits, to take a big step in favor of his NATO allies.
He knows Russia can't afford war with Turkey right now.
It's also worth noting that sentiments in the Arab World and wide sections of the Muslim world in general are broadly pro-Ukraine, and that in Turkey, the specific issue of the Crimea Tatars is not at all forgotten.
Many Ukrainians study in Egypt, and Ukrainians are surprisingly involved with the Muslim world more broadly.
There's also the very long history of adversarial relations between Turkey and Russia to consider here.

Important correction, Tim. Derogatory knows Russia can't afford war with NATO right now.

Yes, that's correct. Turkey+Ukraine is too risky for Putin. NATO+Ukraine is magnitudes worse.
Turkey already has among the most powerful militaries in the region (though the specific ranking depends on what is meant by "region", and I'm probably not completely unbiased here). NATO as a whole?
It's not worth it.
The reason people flee losing battles is so that they can survive another day.
The reason countries seek terms is so that they can have semblance of strength when the war is over.

[Person Man]

Lol, haram bullets

The Azov guys are known for some, ugh, unsavory world views. Hope Ukraine gets rid of them if/when they are in a stable position again.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ng_ukraine/status/1497924614865002497

That’s a bridge to far. This pretty much.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1498042188495790084

I'm extremely impressed how decisive and unified the EU is acting in this crisis so far, which was never guaranteed given their usual decision making process. And I'm saying the latter as someone who was always pro-EU and an admirer of the EU concept.

Furthermore, it's a true blessing Joe Biden is the president right now since close cooperation and coordination between the US and EU is critical.

[NOVA Green]

Movement to boycott Russian products in the US gains increased traction among political figures...

Russian Vodka in particular being targeted which now includes Republican Governors of New Hampshire and Ohio, aside from Abbot's "request" in Texas...

"Azi Paybarah
Feb. 26, 2022, 6:33 p.m. ET5 minutes ago
5 minutes ago
Azi Paybarah

Putin’s critics call for boycotts of Russian vodka.

"Vodka, a drink that was popularized in the West by James Bond and that has long been one of Russia’s most visible exports, is now the target of international anger over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In New Hampshire, where liquor and wine are sold through state-run stores, Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican, announced on Saturday the removal of “Russian-made and Russian-branded spirits from our liquor and wine outlets until further notice.” In Ohio, where the state contracts with private businesses to sell liquor, Gov. Mike DeWine, also a Republican, announced a halt to state purchases and sales of Russian Standard Vodka."



https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/26/world/ukraine-russia-war

Virginia is now also boycotting Russian Vodka & alcohol.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-news/#link-KQMHZ7S7P5CCRG4SJ66FKEPDM4

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1498047294242963459

[The Free North]

Currency markets open in 30 mins I believe.

[Hammy]

I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817?s=20&t=06qxSG-uBQZFA...

It looks like an atomic bomb was deployed. The US and NATO have an obligation to wipe Russia off the face of the earth if that is the case.

The Beirut explosion would've likely looked similar to this had it occurred at night--people vastly underestimate how powerful non-nuclear explosions can be, and there are many things more powerful even than ammonium nitrate.

[Omega21]

I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817?s=20&t=06qxSG-uBQZFA...

It looks like an atomic bomb was deployed. The US and NATO have an obligation to wipe Russia off the face of the earth if that is the case.

I'm almost certain that isn't the case. The explosion that resulted from a missile hitting a pipeline in Kyiv yesterday looked really similar to this, and I'm confident we're seeing the same here.

Yeah. It looks more like the missile that hit Kyiv yesterday. On a side note, my Iranian American friend who I mentioned in the compucomp opinion of thread is thrilled that Putin invaded Ukraine and she keeps sending me pro-Putin propaganda in Facebook and Instagram messenger. She wants Russia, Iran, and China to conquer all of Ukraine and then go into Europe and conquer all the countries there.

Have you told her that’s not going to happen?

Man is just trying to get some, such just causes shall not be threatened by insignificant politics!

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1498047294242963459

This isn’t just Ukraine’s war, it’s Europe’s war. At least a proxy war.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1498047294242963459

Could've kinda pushed that before the Russians started converting them into a rump state, but better late than never I guess.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1498042188495790084

I'm extremely impressed how decisive and unified the EU is acting in this crisis so far, which was never guaranteed given their usual decision making process. And I'm saying the latter as someone who was always pro-EU and an admirer of the EU concept.

Furthermore, it's a true blessing Joe Biden is the president right now since close cooperation and coordination between the US and EU is critical.

I think I very likely underestimated how effective NATO and crew would be this time with their usual approaches of sanctions and EU membership.
Russia still needs to be disentangled from China, but Russia doesn't want to be completely entangled with China either. Russia values strategic autonomy - much like India in that regard.
This is an area that needs prudence and caution going into the future but it does look like Russia's played its hand rather badly here, and the window for them to turn it around is shrinking.

[Splash]

I'll be real honest, while Putin has brought this upon his forces and himself, i can't help but be unnerved by the huge amount of major weapons NATO+allies are supplying both directly and openly.

Kinda freaks me out to think where the Russian perspective crosses the line from "Ukrainians are using some NATO weapons against us" to "NATO is basically at war with us"

Not to further freak you out, but this strikes me as a totally legitimate fear. For the first, say, 24 hours or so I was surprised that an overtly NATO-supplied Ukraine fighting Russia was basically "fine" when we know that direct NATO-on-Russia combat would get out of hand very quickly. Thing is, aside from the obvious option of leaving Ukraine to its fate, I'm not entirely sure what the other options are, except gradations of sanctions or appeasement.

IMO, the publicity of such moves is new but they are hardly without precedent. The Soviet Union supplied (and operated) SAMs in North Vietnam and over 72,000 Soviets took part in the Korean War, with dogfights between American and Soviet aircraft happening quite a lot.

[WMS]

I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817?s=20&t=06qxSG-uBQZFA...

It looks like an atomic bomb was deployed. The US and NATO have an obligation to wipe Russia off the face of the earth if that is the case.

I'm almost certain that isn't the case. The explosion that resulted from a missile hitting a pipeline in Kyiv yesterday looked really similar to this, and I'm confident we're seeing the same here.

Yeah. It looks more like the missile that hit Kyiv yesterday. On a side note, my Iranian American friend who I mentioned in the compucomp opinion of thread is thrilled that Putin invaded Ukraine and she keeps sending me pro-Putin propaganda in Facebook and Instagram messenger. She wants Russia, Iran, and China to conquer all of Ukraine and then go into Europe and conquer all the countries there.

Have you told her that’s not going to happen?

Man is just trying to get some, such just causes shall not be threatened by insignificant politics!

Maybe he can get some hatesex going

[Storr]

I'm certain the Ukrainians had the coordinates of this column quite quickly. People are claiming on twitter it was already targeted/destroyed:

https://twitter.com/andersostlund/status/1498028744807694338?s=20&t=7DAArj_t...

I mean, it does look similar, with vehicles tightly packed together in two lines in a lightly forested area:

https://twitter.com/KiarKini/status/1498039949140049925?s=20&t=7DAArj_t5b1ag...

[Splash]

Oh, no.

Anyways...

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498050774055673864

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I started translating TASS articles as a way of practicing Russian, but looks like they're under DDoS attack as right now they're not coming out. I noticed earlier today that RT had a DDoS guard on.

[WMS]

UN Security Council votes for UN general assembly emergency special session on Monday, first in 40 years. Vote was procedural, so Russia couldn't Veto.

Will be interesting to see whether the resolution against Russia gets more than 100 votes, and who votes with Russia against it. China seems to be minded to abstain, as in the UNSC, as long as the wording is not too much against Russia (UNSC resolution used "deplore"). That leaves, as per public statements of support:

Russia (obviously), Belarus, North Korea, Iran, Myanmar, Syria, Venezuela, Nicaragua,

Makes 8, who else is a possibility?

- Central African Republic, Mali military regime which both have Russia mercenaries;
- Bolivia where Evo Morales has been touting the Russian line, but the Acre Government seems more neutral
- Kazakhstan, Armenia, or Tajikistan seem possible but unlikely (of these only Armenia voted for Russia on Crimea, however Armenia has had regime change and Tokayev is more dependent on Russia, Tajikistan also since Taliban takeover)
-Zimbabwe?

Russia keeping good company in any event

Cuba, Eritrea definitely in favor. Maybe some of those you mentioned. The big thing to watch is Favor vs Abstain.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

Sunday morning, 8:00 AM.

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

We've had like 60 pages in the last day, so I'd say Saturday or Sunday

These are both looking unlikely now. Posting in this thread slowed down a lot, not sure why.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Nice job, Putin.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1498035056174149640

Obviously this must mean that even the Russian oriented parts of Ukraine are backing Zelensky.

Well, he was the "Eastern candidate" in his election, to begin with.

[WMS]

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

Sunday morning, 8:00 AM.

Also, a sidenote: It took us from November 7 last year to February 24 to get to 100 pages. Anyone want to wager how long it'll take us until we've reached 200?

We've had like 60 pages in the last day, so I'd say Saturday or Sunday

These are both looking unlikely now. Posting in this thread slowed down a lot, not sure why.

BigSerg is muted and Vaccinated Russian Bear has vanished off the face of the forum. Plus some of the usual International General Discussion posters have been very quiet about this.