Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

Putin fires top general

https://twitter.com/BillNeelyReport/status/1497989705903788036

This entire war feels like Power Rangers, Voltron, or something.

[NOVA Green]

Humanitarian situation worsening in Ukraine with hospitals on the verge of running out of oxygen per New York Times:

"The World Health Organization warned Sunday that many Ukrainian hospitals were running dangerously low on oxygen supplies.

In a statement, the organization said that the majority of hospitals across the country could exhaust their oxygen reserves within the next day, and that some had already run out.

“The oxygen supply situation is nearing a very dangerous point in Ukraine,” it said. “This puts thousands of lives at risk.”

Oxygen supplies are needed to treat a range of patients, including the roughly 1,700 people being treated in Ukraine now for Covid-19, the W.H.O. said.
..."


https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/27/world/russia-ukraine-war/ukraine-hospitals-medical-oxygen

[nicholas.slaydon]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497975134069706752
Translation:

Georgian: A ship from Russia? We're not refueling you.
Russian: Who is talking to us?
Georgian: A Senior Mate from Georgia. We will not refuel your ship. Russian warship go f[inks] yourself.
Russian: Please drop the politics. We're almost out of fuel.
Georgian: Well if you're almost out of fuel then take out the paddles and start rowing.
Other Georgian: Go f[inks] yourselves.
Georgian: Glory to the heroes, Glory to Ukraine!

Incredibly based.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/stopped-assaulted-at-ukraine-border-say-some-indian-students-2793334

"Stopped, Assaulted At Ukraine Border, Say Some Indian Students"

Indian students are on live NDTV TV saying Ukrainian border guards are torturing (their words) Indian students trying to escape to Poland.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see the media environment in India being so hospitable to Russia. I can't imagine news stories like this are going to help Ukraine much in India.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1498008314218745861

How can it be that the Russians were pushed back and are still 30km from the city (per US) and they some encircled it including from the south west now?

Who’s lying and why

Fog of war, Propaganda, and the fact that Russians are not showing any of their wins (pics of dead Ukrainians are not exactly what Putin wants Russians to see).

[Aurelius]

Biden and NATO forces should go to Lviv or even better Uzhhorod and demand Putin withdraw immediately or risk war. There is more than enough justification, and I genuinely think MAD paranoia has really gotten blown out of proportion.

Even if it doesn't go nuclear I would like to avoid a world war.

[Boobs]

Kyiv currently has around the same population (~3 million) as St Petersburg did during the start of the Siege of Leningrad. I can't really imagine what a siege, especially of this size, will look like in the 21st century.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/stopped-assaulted-at-ukraine-border-say-some-indian-students-2793334

"Stopped, Assaulted At Ukraine Border, Say Some Indian Students"

Indian students are on live NDTV TV saying Ukrainian border guards are torturing (their words) Indian students trying to escape to Poland.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see the media environment in India being so hospitable to Russia. I can't imagine news stories like this are going to help Ukraine much in India.

What the Indian students are saying on live TV is hard to believe and understand.  They are saying that the border guards are letting Ukrainian escape to Poland but not Indians.  It does not make any sense why the Ukrainian guards will have an incentive to do this.  This is bad PR for Ukraine since NDTV is exactly the type of media in India that would want to back Ukraine over Russia.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1498008314218745861

How can it be that the Russians were pushed back and are still 30km from the city (per US) and they some encircled it including from the south west now?

Who’s lying and why

I trust Klitschko here much more than I trust propagandists like Ponomarenko. Why would the mayor of a city falsely say the city is under siege?

(Note than when I say "propagandist" I'm not saying Ukraine is bad or evil or equating them to Russia. I've been using "propaganda" as a value neutral term for source anslysis. To me it simply means someone whose primary aim is something other than spreading accurate information. Booster accounts that spread morale for their side are an example of this.)

[Aurelius]

If Kyiv is truly under siege that is a very bad development. Either way, it appears that the westward sweep toward Kyiv across the plains of NE Ukraine that I predicted last night is coming true. The latest out of Kharkiv does sound better than what I was hearing last night though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/stopped-assaulted-at-ukraine-border-say-some-indian-students-2793334

"Stopped, Assaulted At Ukraine Border, Say Some Indian Students"

Indian students are on live NDTV TV saying Ukrainian border guards are torturing (their words) Indian students trying to escape to Poland.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see the media environment in India being so hospitable to Russia. I can't imagine news stories like this are going to help Ukraine much in India.

What the Indian students are saying on live TV is hard to believe and understand.  They are saying that the border guards are letting Ukrainian escape to Poland but not Indians.  It does not make any sense why the Ukrainian guards will have an incentive to do this.  This is bad PR for Ukraine since NDTV is exactly the type of media in India that would want to back Ukraine over Russia.

It seems that for all the competence Ukraine has shown in cyber-warfare, they are completely incompetent in trying to get the sympathy of the Indian public. The Indian public could be quite important in deciding how this goes long-term; Modi will go where the public wants to go, and Modi is an important power-broker in this. A friendly India could be the break Russia needs to avoid international isolation, worse come to worse.

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1498008314218745861

How can it be that the Russians were pushed back and are still 30km from the city (per US) and they some encircled it including from the south west now?

Who’s lying and why

I trust Klitschko here much more than I trust propagandists like Ponomarenko. Why would the mayor of a city falsely say the city is under siege?

(Note than when I say "propagandist" I'm not saying Ukraine is bad or evil or equating them to Russia. I've been using "propaganda" as a value neutral term for source anslysis. To me it simply means someone whose primary aim is something other than spreading accurate information. Booster accounts that spread morale for their side are an example of this.)

So that would be the US MOD being the propagandist.

[Person Man]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/stopped-assaulted-at-ukraine-border-say-some-indian-students-2793334

"Stopped, Assaulted At Ukraine Border, Say Some Indian Students"

Indian students are on live NDTV TV saying Ukrainian border guards are torturing (their words) Indian students trying to escape to Poland.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see the media environment in India being so hospitable to Russia. I can't imagine news stories like this are going to help Ukraine much in India.

What the Indian students are saying on live TV is hard to believe and understand.  They are saying that the border guards are letting Ukrainian escape to Poland but not Indians.  It does not make any sense why the Ukrainian guards will have an incentive to do this.  This is bad PR for Ukraine since NDTV is exactly the type of media in India that would want to back Ukraine over Russia.

It seems that for all the competence Ukraine has shown in cyber-warfare, they are completely incompetent in trying to get the sympathy of the Indian public. The Indian public could be quite important in deciding how this goes long-term; Modi will go where the public wants to go, and Modi is an important power-broker in this. A friendly India could be the break Russia needs to avoid international isolation, worse come to worse.

If Russian behavior gets that disgusting and India becomes that irrepetentant, how would that affect relations with the West?

[NOVA Green]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-9

Key Takeaways

• Russia has failed to encircle and isolate Kyiv with mechanized and airborne attacks as it had clearly planned to do. Russian forces are now engaging in more straightforward mechanized drives into Kyiv along a narrow front on the west bank of the Dnipro River and on a broad front to the northeast.
• Russian forces temporarily abandoned efforts to seize Chernihiv and Kharkiv to the northeast and east of Kyiv and are bypassing those cities to continue their drive on Kyiv. Failed Russian attacks against both cities were poorly designed and executed and encountered more determined and effective resistance than Russia likely expected.
• Russian successes in southern Ukraine are the most dangerous and threaten to unhinge Ukraine’s successful defenses and rearguard actions to the north and northeast.
• Russian forces in eastern Ukraine remain focused on pinning the large concentration of Ukrainian forces arrayed along the former line of contact in the east, likely to prevent them from interfering with Russian drives on Kyiv and to facilitate their encirclement and destruction.
• Ukrainian forces retook the critical city of Kherson and Russian forces halted their drive on Odessa. Some Russian troops remain west of the Dnipro River and are advancing on Mykolaiv, but the main axes of advance have shifted to the north and east toward Zaporizhie and Mariupol respectively.
• Russian forces have taken the critical city of Berdyansk from the west, threatening to encircle Mariupol with Russian forces in Donbas attacking Mariupol from the east, likely to pin defenders in the city.
• Russian troops are facing growing morale and logistics issues, predictable consequences of the poor planning, coordination, and execution of attacks along Ukraine’s northern border.
  
• The United States, Canada, and European allies removed select Russian banks from the SWIFT global financial network and agreed to additional measures that could significantly increase economic pressure on Russia.
• The United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom facilitated a significant expansion of NATO countries’ lethal aid shipments to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began.
• NATO countries began contributing forces to NATO Response Force (NRF) operations in Eastern Europe, reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank.
• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is set to displace millions of Ukrainians internally and throughout eastern Europe; at least 150,000 Ukrainians have fled the country as of February 26 as urban fighting intensifies.
• Kremlin censors increased crackdowns on independent media amid growing Russian opposition to the war.

Thanks for sharing this and bumping for those who might have missed the 2/26/22 update as we look at today's reported developments.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1498008314218745861

How can it be that the Russians were pushed back and are still 30km from the city (per US) and they some encircled it including from the south west now?

Who’s lying and why

I trust Klitschko here much more than I trust propagandists like Ponomarenko. Why would the mayor of a city falsely say the city is under siege?

(Note than when I say "propagandist" I'm not saying Ukraine is bad or evil or equating them to Russia. I've been using "propaganda" as a value neutral term for source anslysis. To me it simply means someone whose primary aim is something other than spreading accurate information. Booster accounts that spread morale for their side are an example of this.)

My two cents here:
I agree with all of this.
Also, propaganda is not an evil word. It's a morally neutral thing. Propaganda is a tool, like everything else. Tools can be wielded for good OR for bad.

[jaichind]

The Russian ministry of Defense admits that "some" Russian soldiers have been captured by the Ukrainians.  But just like the USA 2003 playbook they also claim that these captured soldiers are being "tortured" by the Ukrainians.  The Russians also claim, from the same 2003 USA playbook, that the Ukrainians in Kyiv are using phosphorus munitions which are banned by the UN.

[Flyersfan232]

The DEFCON level has moved to 2! The 3rd time that has ever happen. The first time the DEFCON went to level 2 was the Cuban Missile Crisis and the Second Time was during the Persian Gulf War.

and like both times nothing is going to happened

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/stopped-assaulted-at-ukraine-border-say-some-indian-students-2793334

"Stopped, Assaulted At Ukraine Border, Say Some Indian Students"

Indian students are on live NDTV TV saying Ukrainian border guards are torturing (their words) Indian students trying to escape to Poland.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see the media environment in India being so hospitable to Russia. I can't imagine news stories like this are going to help Ukraine much in India.

What the Indian students are saying on live TV is hard to believe and understand.  They are saying that the border guards are letting Ukrainian escape to Poland but not Indians.  It does not make any sense why the Ukrainian guards will have an incentive to do this.  This is bad PR for Ukraine since NDTV is exactly the type of media in India that would want to back Ukraine over Russia.

It seems that for all the competence Ukraine has shown in cyber-warfare, they are completely incompetent in trying to get the sympathy of the Indian public. The Indian public could be quite important in deciding how this goes long-term; Modi will go where the public wants to go, and Modi is an important power-broker in this. A friendly India could be the break Russia needs to avoid international isolation, worse come to worse.

If Russian behavior gets that disgusting and India becomes that irrepetentant, how would that affect relations with the West?

It certainly could impact plans relating to QUAD if Russia gets a high enough focus in US defense plans, but then again, India always looks out for itself first and foremost, and its relationship with Russia has never been, as far as I know, negative as a whole. India, QUAD or no QUAD, was always likely to want to adhere to an autonomous geopolitical strategy calculated to help Indian interests above all else.

[NOVA Green]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/stopped-assaulted-at-ukraine-border-say-some-indian-students-2793334

"Stopped, Assaulted At Ukraine Border, Say Some Indian Students"

Indian students are on live NDTV TV saying Ukrainian border guards are torturing (their words) Indian students trying to escape to Poland.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see the media environment in India being so hospitable to Russia. I can't imagine news stories like this are going to help Ukraine much in India.

What the Indian students are saying on live TV is hard to believe and understand.  They are saying that the border guards are letting Ukrainian escape to Poland but not Indians.  It does not make any sense why the Ukrainian guards will have an incentive to do this.  This is bad PR for Ukraine since NDTV is exactly the type of media in India that would want to back Ukraine over Russia.

It seems that for all the competence Ukraine has shown in cyber-warfare, they are completely incompetent in trying to get the sympathy of the Indian public. The Indian public could be quite important in deciding how this goes long-term; Modi will go where the public wants to go, and Modi is an important power-broker in this. A friendly India could be the break Russia needs to avoid international isolation, worse come to worse.

If Russian behavior gets that disgusting and India becomes that irrepetentant, how would that affect relations with the West?

It sounds like these types of actions are actually being performed by Polish Border guards and are being actively looked at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-news/#link-26HKARWXPJGFRBRUGGX7UFJ5NQ

[John Dule]

I'm in Washington DC for a law school event right now. Please let me know when the Defcon level reaches 1 so I know when to leave the city. kthx

[NOVA Green]

I'm in Washington DC for a law school event right now. Please let me know when the Defcon level reaches 1 so I know when to leave the city. kthx

Will do... you'll be the first I notify.   

[Person Man]

I'm in Washington DC for a law school event right now. Please let me know when the Defcon level reaches 1 so I know when to leave the city. kthx

You got it, boss.

[jaichind]

It certainly could impact plans relating to QUAD if Russia gets a high enough focus in US defense plans, but then again, India always looks out for itself first and foremost, and its relationship with Russia has never been, as far as I know, negative as a whole. India, QUAD or no QUAD, was always likely to want to adhere to an autonomous geopolitical strategy calculated to help Indian interests above all else.

For me, India is the key swing power of the future in the struggle between the Western Alliance and the Euroasian bloc (PRC-Russia.)  This is why the PRC antagonizing India over the last couple of years is extremely foolhardy.  Good news for PRC is, India has a strong sense of independence and is unlikely to join the Western alliance and will insist on it being its own separate independent Great Power.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/stopped-assaulted-at-ukraine-border-say-some-indian-students-2793334

"Stopped, Assaulted At Ukraine Border, Say Some Indian Students"

Indian students are on live NDTV TV saying Ukrainian border guards are torturing (their words) Indian students trying to escape to Poland.

It's interesting, but not surprising, to see the media environment in India being so hospitable to Russia. I can't imagine news stories like this are going to help Ukraine much in India.

What the Indian students are saying on live TV is hard to believe and understand.  They are saying that the border guards are letting Ukrainian escape to Poland but not Indians.  It does not make any sense why the Ukrainian guards will have an incentive to do this.  This is bad PR for Ukraine since NDTV is exactly the type of media in India that would want to back Ukraine over Russia.

It seems that for all the competence Ukraine has shown in cyber-warfare, they are completely incompetent in trying to get the sympathy of the Indian public. The Indian public could be quite important in deciding how this goes long-term; Modi will go where the public wants to go, and Modi is an important power-broker in this. A friendly India could be the break Russia needs to avoid international isolation, worse come to worse.

If Russian behavior gets that disgusting and India becomes that irrepetentant, how would that affect relations with the West?

It sounds like these types of actions are actually being performed by Polish Border guards and are being actively looked at:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/27/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-news/#link-26HKARWXPJGFRBRUGGX7UFJ5NQ

Ukraine needs to correct the record on this as soon as is possible. Just conceding free points to Russia like that is political malpractice.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

I'm in Washington DC for a law school event right now. Please let me know when the Defcon level reaches 1 so I know when to leave the city. kthx

DEFCON 1 means the war has already started