Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

Interestingly, currently on flightradar24.com, there is a Georgian 747-236B(SF) cargo plane flying from Tbilisi without a declared destination which appears to be descending for a landing at Lublin, Poland (near the Ukrainian border). It wouldn't be a stretch to wonder if it is carrying supplies and/or weapons bound for Ukraine.

https://www.flightradar24.com/GEL801/2af6a989

[John Dule]

Went to see Joe today.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

My man Zelenskyy out here being a literal gigachad

https://mobile.twitter.com/ErinBurnett/status/1498067760013889546

[Astatine]

[...]

I tend to think not, but part of that is wishful thinking. If we manage to survive this crisis, I think there is tremendous hope for the next few decades in Eastern Europe though. We can only hope.

I am mostly worried about what will happen to the Northern Caucasus.

Interestingly, on flightradar24.com, currently there is a Georgian 747-236B(SF) cargo plane flying from Tbilisi without a declared destination which appears to be descending for a landing at Lublin, Poland, (near the Ukrainian border). It wouldn't be a stretch to wonder if it is carrying supplies and weapons bound for Ukraine.

https://www.flightradar24.com/GEL801/2af6a989

https://twitter.com/DavidDondua/status/1498069054396895237

I doubt that, Georgia's PM already refused to sanction Russia.

[Storebought]

I've begun to feel this will all come to a very sharp conclusion soon. Ukraine will not surrender, they will not be defeated easily and there will be a protracted guerilla war or something of that nature if Russia occupies the country. I can't see it getting that far though to be honest.

When markets reopen on Monday, the Russian economy is going to functionally collapse. Billions if not more will be wiped out. Russian companies will be worthless. The currency is worthless. People will have no access to capital, there will eventually be supply shortages of every nature. I've long felt the most endearing aspect of global trade and global capitalism is how it prevents things like this from happening. Putin is part of the global economy and he will soon find out just how painful that reality is for him. The war is not sustainable. There is no victory abroad and there will be more discord at home.

Ultimately, I do not think Putin is well. Something, either mental, or physical, is ailing him. He won't last long. The only question is, will his inner circle let him go nuclear on the way out if it comes to that.

I tend to think not, but part of that is wishful thinking. If we manage to survive this crisis, I think there is tremendous hope for the next few decades in Eastern Europe though. We can only hope.

Yeah, even I can't see this going on as it is now for four weeks like Iraq. Russia will have to change course, very likely escalate to bombardment of Ukraine's major cities.

[The Free North]

FX markets very thin right now but good luck buying anything if you're a Russian company in the next few months.


https://twitter.com/RamiRanger/status/1498046845737701377?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle...

[Storr]

[...]

I tend to think not, but part of that is wishful thinking. If we manage to survive this crisis, I think there is tremendous hope for the next few decades in Eastern Europe though. We can only hope.

I am mostly worried about what will happen to the Northern Caucasus.

Interestingly, on flightradar24.com, currently there is a Georgian 747-236B(SF) cargo plane flying from Tbilisi without a declared destination which appears to be descending for a landing at Lublin, Poland, (near the Ukrainian border). It wouldn't be a stretch to wonder if it is carrying supplies and weapons bound for Ukraine.

https://www.flightradar24.com/GEL801/2af6a989

https://twitter.com/DavidDondua/status/1498069054396895237

I doubt that, Georgia's PM already refused to sanction Russia.

Humanitarian aid is good, at least. Ukraine needs all the help it can get.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

This is going to be a disaster for Lukashenko

He even publicly stated Belarus would only get involved if Russia was attacked by NATO. He says contradictory things all the time, but I'm not sure what on Earth state media would be able to spin an invasion of Ukraine as.

"Russia has sent thousands of troops into Belarus, but the country’s authoritarian leader said Friday there will only be war if “aggression is committed against Belarus” or “our ally Russia.”

“If our country faces an aggression, there will be hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers here, who will defend this sacred land together with hundreds of thousands of Belarusians,” President Alexander Lukashenko said in a national address."

But he warned that the West is seeking “to drown the Russian-Ukrainian brotherhood, our Slavic brotherhood, in blood,” adding, “But we will return Ukraine to the bosom of Slavs. We will definitely do it.”"

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-alexander-lukashenko-belarus-ukraine-conflict-crisis/

I have to wonder what the chances of Belarusian Lt. Colonel whoever looking at the Kyiv meat grinder and deciding the chance of Lukashenko actually being able to punish mutineers are lower than the chances he gets fragged.

[NOVA Green]

Wall Street Journal just posted an interesting and very long article which I can only partially quote, so please go out and buy a subscription or do a free trial...

"As His Invasion of Ukraine Sputters, Putin Finds Himself Isolated and Out of Touch

The Russian leader is isolated from his inner circle and peddling an alternative version of history to suit his needs

With the world moving against him, economic sanctions piling up and a so-far unsuccessful military campaign, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday issued the ultimate deterrent threat.

Mr. Putin put his country’s nuclear forces on high alert, a warning to the countries lining up to help Ukraine fend off its Russian attackers. The announcement was a window into Mr. Putin’s increasing isolation and anger. His behavior is making his inner circle appear visibly uncomfortable.

Mr. Putin issued his warning Sunday sitting at one end of a very long table. Seated far down the table were two top lieutenants who typically exude confidence. As Mr. Putin ordered them to put the country’s nuclear weapons on high alert, Sergei Shoigu —his longtime defense minister and stalwart ally—lowered his head in a sign of consent.

The Russian leader appears to have gravely miscalculated the economic and political costs as well as the on-the-ground challenges of an attack on Ukraine. His overreach threatens to have far-reaching consequences for both his global standing and the stability of his nation.

He singled out another close adviser in a televised security council meeting seen by millions of Russians. Just before the attack on Ukraine, Mr. Putin took his spy chief, Sergei Naryshkin, to task for his failure to “speak directly.” Mr. Naryshkin appeared uncomfortable and stumbled over his words as the Kremlin leader pressed him to express his views on whether the breakaway eastern Ukraine regions of Donetsk and Luhansk should be recognized as independent.

....


But he built toward his biggest gamble ever during the isolation of Covid-19. Mr. Putin retreated to his residence outside Moscow and imposed stringent quarantine requirements on anyone wanting to see him.

It was during that period that he began building his current case for attacking Ukraine. In a 7,000-word essay written last summer and published on the Kremlin’s website, Mr. Putin outlined what he said was evidence that Ukraine is an artificially-created country infiltrated by foreign forces and overrun by nationalists who threaten Russia’s security.

Mr. Putin’s essay soon became so core to the Kremlin’s narrative on Ukraine that the Defense Ministry added it to the curriculum studied by all Russian service members, including the 190,000 troops estimated to have massed near Ukraine’s borders ahead of Thursday’s invasion.

...."





https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-his-invasion-of-ukraine-sputters-putin-finds-himself-isolated-and-out-of-touch-11646000993?st=x5bbfr3wzi9sp47&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[Frodo]

FX markets very thin right now but good luck buying anything if you're a Russian company in the next few months.


https://twitter.com/RamiRanger/status/1498046845737701377?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle...

In case anyone is curious about the comparison:

A Brief Explanation of Hyperinflation in Weimar Germany

[It’s so Joever]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

[The Free North]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

[NOVA Green]

FX markets very thin right now but good luck buying anything if you're a Russian company in the next few months.


https://twitter.com/RamiRanger/status/1498046845737701377?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle...

Wow--- that was the top end of the estimates I posted earlier today from the WSJ.

[Person Man]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

Could this become a legitimate humanitarian crisis?

[Omega21]

In case anyone is curious about the comparison:

A Brief Explanation of Hyperinflation in Weimar Germany

Another good illustration:

Price reads 460 Billion

[WMS]

UN Security Council votes for UN general assembly emergency special session on Monday, first in 40 years. Vote was procedural, so Russia couldn't Veto.

Will be interesting to see whether the resolution against Russia gets more than 100 votes, and who votes with Russia against it. China seems to be minded to abstain, as in the UNSC, as long as the wording is not too much against Russia (UNSC resolution used "deplore"). That leaves, as per public statements of support:

Russia (obviously), Belarus, North Korea, Iran, Myanmar, Syria, Venezuela, Nicaragua,

Makes 8, who else is a possibility?

- Central African Republic, Mali military regime which both have Russia mercenaries;
- Bolivia where Evo Morales has been touting the Russian line, but the Acre Government seems more neutral
- Kazakhstan, Armenia, or Tajikistan seem possible but unlikely (of these only Armenia voted for Russia on Crimea, however Armenia has had regime change and Tokayev is more dependent on Russia, Tajikistan also since Taliban takeover)
-Zimbabwe?

Russia keeping good company in any event

Cuba, Eritrea definitely in favor. Maybe some of those you mentioned. The big thing to watch is Favor vs Abstain.

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498069761778982912?s=21

Maybe Brazil, although I highly doubt Brazil thinks like Bolsonaro does

[Storr]

This is notable for, among other things, having been published nearly three hours ago:https://twitter.com/AlexandreKrausz/status/1498034918785531919?s=20&t=UvrTKA...

[Flyersfan232]

How the Russian monarchist scene outside of Vladimir Zhirinovsky on the days he claim to be a monarchist.

[NOVA Green]

US Extends active duty status for 4,000 US Army Troops deployed in Europe per CNN (12 minutes ago):

(Article longer but don't want to overquote but still free website)

"4,000 US Army troops deployed in Europe have tour of duty extended

More than 4,000 US Army troops who were deployed to Europe on a temporary basis will now have their tour of duty extended -- likely for several weeks -- as part of the US effort to reassure eastern European allies during the current crisis in Ukraine.

The 1st Armored Brigade Combat team of the 1st Infantry Division had been scheduled to return to the US next month after a nine-month tour in Europe. But the team will now stay and continue training and deterrence missions with nations that could include Poland, Romania and the Baltics.

"I don't want to speculate on a timeline, but be assured it will only be for as long as they are needed," John Tomassi, a spokesman for the Army in Europe, told CNN in an email.

In addition to the brigade, there are additional support troops that will be extended. For several years, the army has regularly rotated combat brigades, along with the armored vehicles in and out of Europe, to help maintain a US military presence.

...."


https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-27-22/h_ca690f77cc2a0296447c07d019c3c122

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

Wall Street Journal just posted an interesting and very long article which I can only partially quote, so please go out and buy a subscription or do a free trial...

"As His Invasion of Ukraine Sputters, Putin Finds Himself Isolated and Out of Touch

The Russian leader is isolated from his inner circle and peddling an alternative version of history to suit his needs

With the world moving against him, economic sanctions piling up and a so-far unsuccessful military campaign, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday issued the ultimate deterrent threat.

Mr. Putin put his country’s nuclear forces on high alert, a warning to the countries lining up to help Ukraine fend off its Russian attackers. The announcement was a window into Mr. Putin’s increasing isolation and anger. His behavior is making his inner circle appear visibly uncomfortable.

Mr. Putin issued his warning Sunday sitting at one end of a very long table. Seated far down the table were two top lieutenants who typically exude confidence. As Mr. Putin ordered them to put the country’s nuclear weapons on high alert, Sergei Shoigu —his longtime defense minister and stalwart ally—lowered his head in a sign of consent.

The Russian leader appears to have gravely miscalculated the economic and political costs as well as the on-the-ground challenges of an attack on Ukraine. His overreach threatens to have far-reaching consequences for both his global standing and the stability of his nation.

He singled out another close adviser in a televised security council meeting seen by millions of Russians. Just before the attack on Ukraine, Mr. Putin took his spy chief, Sergei Naryshkin, to task for his failure to “speak directly.” Mr. Naryshkin appeared uncomfortable and stumbled over his words as the Kremlin leader pressed him to express his views on whether the breakaway eastern Ukraine regions of Donetsk and Luhansk should be recognized as independent.

....


But he built toward his biggest gamble ever during the isolation of Covid-19. Mr. Putin retreated to his residence outside Moscow and imposed stringent quarantine requirements on anyone wanting to see him.

It was during that period that he began building his current case for attacking Ukraine. In a 7,000-word essay written last summer and published on the Kremlin’s website, Mr. Putin outlined what he said was evidence that Ukraine is an artificially-created country infiltrated by foreign forces and overrun by nationalists who threaten Russia’s security.

Mr. Putin’s essay soon became so core to the Kremlin’s narrative on Ukraine that the Defense Ministry added it to the curriculum studied by all Russian service members, including the 190,000 troops estimated to have massed near Ukraine’s borders ahead of Thursday’s invasion.

...."





https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-his-invasion-of-ukraine-sputters-putin-finds-himself-isolated-and-out-of-touch-11646000993?st=x5bbfr3wzi9sp47&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Aww, how cute! Putin has his own little Fuhrerbunker.

[Omega21]

China playing the "balancing game" lol

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

How the Russian monarchist scene outside of Vladimir Zhirinovsky on the days he claim to be a monarchist.

I can’t imagine the experience with the current mad Tsar is making it stronger

[Flyersfan232]

Wall Street Journal just posted an interesting and very long article which I can only partially quote, so please go out and buy a subscription or do a free trial...

"As His Invasion of Ukraine Sputters, Putin Finds Himself Isolated and Out of Touch

The Russian leader is isolated from his inner circle and peddling an alternative version of history to suit his needs

With the world moving against him, economic sanctions piling up and a so-far unsuccessful military campaign, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday issued the ultimate deterrent threat.

Mr. Putin put his country’s nuclear forces on high alert, a warning to the countries lining up to help Ukraine fend off its Russian attackers. The announcement was a window into Mr. Putin’s increasing isolation and anger. His behavior is making his inner circle appear visibly uncomfortable.

Mr. Putin issued his warning Sunday sitting at one end of a very long table. Seated far down the table were two top lieutenants who typically exude confidence. As Mr. Putin ordered them to put the country’s nuclear weapons on high alert, Sergei Shoigu —his longtime defense minister and stalwart ally—lowered his head in a sign of consent.

The Russian leader appears to have gravely miscalculated the economic and political costs as well as the on-the-ground challenges of an attack on Ukraine. His overreach threatens to have far-reaching consequences for both his global standing and the stability of his nation.

He singled out another close adviser in a televised security council meeting seen by millions of Russians. Just before the attack on Ukraine, Mr. Putin took his spy chief, Sergei Naryshkin, to task for his failure to “speak directly.” Mr. Naryshkin appeared uncomfortable and stumbled over his words as the Kremlin leader pressed him to express his views on whether the breakaway eastern Ukraine regions of Donetsk and Luhansk should be recognized as independent.

....


But he built toward his biggest gamble ever during the isolation of Covid-19. Mr. Putin retreated to his residence outside Moscow and imposed stringent quarantine requirements on anyone wanting to see him.

It was during that period that he began building his current case for attacking Ukraine. In a 7,000-word essay written last summer and published on the Kremlin’s website, Mr. Putin outlined what he said was evidence that Ukraine is an artificially-created country infiltrated by foreign forces and overrun by nationalists who threaten Russia’s security.

Mr. Putin’s essay soon became so core to the Kremlin’s narrative on Ukraine that the Defense Ministry added it to the curriculum studied by all Russian service members, including the 190,000 troops estimated to have massed near Ukraine’s borders ahead of Thursday’s invasion.

...."





https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-his-invasion-of-ukraine-sputters-putin-finds-himself-isolated-and-out-of-touch-11646000993?st=x5bbfr3wzi9sp47&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Aww, how cute! Putin has his own little Fuhrerbunker.

don’t he have kids and girlfriend?

[Storr]

If true, Belarusian forces has already been compromised before they've even done anything, by the founder of a random NGO no less:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498070435510067204?s=20&t=Bjbs6jzZB...

[Alcibiades]

https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1497953304378327043?cxt=HHwWhoC-...

Further evidence that this is turning into a historic disaster for Russia.