Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

At this point I don’t even get what Putin’s endgame can be here because there is no puppet government he can set up that won’t be isolated from the rest of the world and not see massive uprisings at home

[Person Man]

I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817?s=20&t=06qxSG-uBQZFA...

Looks like a mushroom cloud.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1498036493893394434

[Alcibiades]

I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817?s=20&t=06qxSG-uBQZFA...

People in the replies saying that it’s unlikely to be a thermobaric, but rather a more conventional missile perhaps striking an oil pipeline or refinery.

[Storr]

I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817?s=20&t=06qxSG-uBQZFA...

People in the replies saying that it’s unlikely to be a thermobaric, but rather a more conventional missile perhaps striking an oil pipeline or refinery.

That's what I'd guess. The refinery attack last night (near Kyiv, I believe) resulted in a similar looking mushroom shaped cloud.

[It’s so Joever]

If it’s a thermobaric, that is our justification to get in. There are no excuses if true. If it’s a conventional missile that would be much less worrisome but still awful obviously.

[Logical]

Nice job, Putin.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1498035056174149640

Very kind of Russian soldiers to pause their invasion to partake in this poll and express their dissatisfaction of Zelensky.

[NOVA Green]

The only way Turkey closes the Bosphorus would be if they feel Russia is too weak/preoccupied to force the strait to reopen:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498038656875081740?s=20&t=p7zLIjGZr...

Turkey is a NATO member however, so how exactly would Russia try to force the strait to reopen without triggering a broader conflict?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The only way Turkey closes the Bosphorus would be if they feel Russia is too weak/preoccupied to force the strait to reopen:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498038656875081740?s=20&t=p7zLIjGZr...

Huge news.
My guess is that Erdogan saw this as a chance to beef up his NATO credentials and win support in Ukraine, and on a personal level he probably dislikes what is going on in Ukraine as well. So he's closing the straits, to take a big step in favor of his NATO allies.
He knows Russia can't afford war with Turkey right now.
It's also worth noting that sentiments in the Arab World and wide sections of the Muslim world in general are broadly pro-Ukraine, and that in Turkey, the specific issue of the Crimea Tatars is not at all forgotten.
Many Ukrainians study in Egypt, and Ukrainians are surprisingly involved with the Muslim world more broadly.
There's also the very long history of adversarial relations between Turkey and Russia to consider here.

[rc18]

I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

People in the replies saying that it’s unlikely to be a thermobaric, but rather a more conventional missile perhaps striking an oil pipeline or refinery.

Yeah I saw, but they seem to be basing that off how small MLRS style thermobarics look, there are larger ones that would look similar to what we see.

[Farmlands]

I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817?s=20&t=06qxSG-uBQZFA...

It looks like an atomic bomb was deployed. The US and NATO have an obligation to wipe Russia off the face of the earth if that is the case.

I'm almost certain that isn't the case. The explosion that resulted from a missile hitting a pipeline in Kyiv yesterday looked really similar to this, and I think we're seeing the same here.

[It’s so Joever]

I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817?s=20&t=06qxSG-uBQZFA...

It looks like an atomic bomb was deployed. The US and NATO have an obligation to wipe Russia off the face of the earth if that is the case.

Ehhh I don’t think so.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817?s=20&t=06qxSG-uBQZFA...

People in the replies saying that it’s unlikely to be a thermobaric, but rather a more conventional missile perhaps striking an oil pipeline or refinery.

Yeah, If it was nuclear, the camera sensor would’ve been fried.

[WMS]

Albanian reunification soon?

https://mobile.twitter.com/tedreinert/status/1498026822822293507

What do we have to lose at this point?

Oh, but we can’t do it because we might upset Serbia and they might do something like utterly side…with…Russia…oh wait they’ve already done that well then we should definitely do this as a way to punish the Serbian government.

[pppolitics]

LOL, is this for real?

https://twitter.com/HelenKennedy/status/1498027257293524992

[compucomp]

Berdiansk has also been taken by the Russians, announced by its mayor relayed by CNN. This is the next major town along the Black Sea to the west of Mariupol, which is now in danger of being encircled.

Oleksandr Svidlo, the acting mayor of the town of Berdyansk on Ukraine's southern coast, has said that Russian forces have entered and taken control of the town.

Berdyansk, which has a small naval base, has a population of about 100,000.

Svidlo posted a message to the town's residents on his Facebook page Sunday which said, "A few hours ago, you and I witnessed how heavy military equipment and armed soldiers entered the city and began advancing throughout our hometown. As soon as I learned about that, I tried to inform all the residents of the city so that you have the opportunity to hide in shelters."

Svidlo continued: "Some time ago, armed soldiers entered the executive committee building and introduced themselves as soldiers of the Russian army, they informed us that all administrative buildings were under their control and that they were taking control of the executive committee building."

Svidlo said that officials were asked to continue working, "but under the control of armed men. I consider this proposal unacceptable, so we, as all members of the operational headquarters, left the building of the executive committee."

Svidlo ended his post, saying, "Today Berdyansk was on the line of fire. I don't know what tomorrow will be like, but I think tonight will be very, very hard."

[Storr]

The only way Turkey closes the Bosphorus would be if they feel Russia is too weak/preoccupied to force the strait to reopen:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498038656875081740?s=20&t=p7zLIjGZr...

Turkey is a NATO member however, so how exactly would Russia try to force the strait to reopen without triggering a broader conflict?

From what I know about naval tactics (which isn't much) you send in a flotilla/group of ships and ask to be let through. Hopefully they accept, otherwise you just motor your ships through without official permission. Shooting is avoided by the transgressing ships unless fired at, because when going through a narrow strait, your ships are easy targets for land based batteries and artillery.  I suppose it is kind of like a game of chicken, hoping the other nation blinks first. But instead of crashing your car into another coming straight at you, the bad outcome is a war.

[MATTROSE94]

I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817?s=20&t=06qxSG-uBQZFA...

It looks like an atomic bomb was deployed. The US and NATO have an obligation to wipe Russia off the face of the earth if that is the case.

I'm almost certain that isn't the case. The explosion that resulted from a missile hitting a pipeline in Kyiv yesterday looked really similar to this, and I'm confident we're seeing the same here.

Yeah. It looks more like the missile that hit Kyiv yesterday. On a side note, my Iranian American friend who I mentioned in the compucomp opinion of thread is thrilled that Putin invaded Ukraine and she keeps sending me pro-Putin propaganda in Facebook and Instagram messenger. She wants Russia, Iran, and China to conquer all of Ukraine and then go into Europe and conquer all the countries there.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

I'll be real honest, while Putin has brought this upon his forces and himself, i can't help but be unnerved by the huge amount of major weapons NATO+allies are supplying both directly and openly.

Kinda freaks me out to think where the Russian perspective crosses the line from "Ukrainians are using some NATO weapons against us" to "NATO is basically at war with us"


Also perhaps this is just from me working in a bank, but i'm withdrawing 200 Euros tomorrow in smaller bills tomorrow. I would not be surprised if cyber attacks start this week.

I hope i am just overreacting here as i usually do.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817?s=20&t=06qxSG-uBQZFA...

It looks like an atomic bomb was deployed. The US and NATO have an obligation to wipe Russia off the face of the earth if that is the case.

Other types of explosions make mushroom clouds too.

[Person Man]

LOL, is this for real?

https://twitter.com/HelenKennedy/status/1498027257293524992

It’s a crossover between Command and Conquer and GTA.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'll be real honest, while Putin has brought this upon his forces and himself, i can't help but be unnerved by the huge amount of major weapons NATO+allies are supplying both directly and openly.

Kinda freaks me out to think where the Russian perspective crosses the line from "Ukrainians are using some NATO weapons against us" to "NATO is basically at war with us"


Also perhaps this is just from me working in a bank, but i'm withdrawing 200 Euros tomorrow in smaller bills tomorrow. I would not be surprised if cyber attacks start this week.

I hope i am just overreacting here as i usually do.

Imo, the pivot point that scares me most is "We want regime change in Ukraine" vs "They've done this much to us, we may as well annex Ukraine, wholesale - what have we left to lose?". It does make strategic sense for NATO to give Ukraine lots of weapons, using the war as a pretext. (All this assumes Russia wants regime change, which is not necessarily clear)
The uncertainty of what's going on in the minds of the Russians is the scariest part of this entire saga.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/kajakallas/status/1498042188495790084

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I'll be real honest, while Putin has brought this upon his forces and himself, i can't help but be unnerved by the huge amount of major weapons NATO+allies are supplying both directly and openly.

Kinda freaks me out to think where the Russian perspective crosses the line from "Ukrainians are using some NATO weapons against us" to "NATO is basically at war with us"

Not to further freak you out, but this strikes me as a totally legitimate fear. For the first, say, 24 hours or so I was surprised that an overtly NATO-supplied Ukraine fighting Russia was basically "fine" when we know that direct NATO-on-Russia combat would get out of hand very quickly. Thing is, aside from the obvious option of leaving Ukraine to its fate, I'm not entirely sure what the other options are, except gradations of sanctions or appeasement.

[Badger]

The only way Turkey closes the Bosphorus would be if they feel Russia is too weak/preoccupied to force the strait to reopen:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1498038656875081740?s=20&t=p7zLIjGZr...

Huge news.
My guess is that Erdogan saw this as a chance to beef up his NATO credentials and win support in Ukraine, and on a personal level he probably dislikes what is going on in Ukraine as well. So he's closing the straits, to take a big step in favor of his NATO allies.
He knows Russia can't afford war with Turkey right now.
It's also worth noting that sentiments in the Arab World and wide sections of the Muslim world in general are broadly pro-Ukraine, and that in Turkey, the specific issue of the Crimea Tatars is not at all forgotten.
Many Ukrainians study in Egypt, and Ukrainians are surprisingly involved with the Muslim world more broadly.
There's also the very long history of adversarial relations between Turkey and Russia to consider here.

Important correction, Tim. Edrogan knows Russia can't afford war with NATO right now.