Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

New UN Vote upcoming calling for a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine:

"5 min ago

"U.S., Allies Consider New United Nations Vote Targeting Russia

By William Mauldin

The U.S. and its allies are seeking to bring a vote to the United Nations General Assembly calling on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, according to Western diplomats, after Russia vetoed a similar resolution at the U.N. Security Council.

The Security Council, presided over by Russia this month, has scheduled a meeting for Sunday at 3 p.m. There, some council members are expected to press for an emergency special session of the General Assembly beginning Monday. Russia wouldn't be able to veto the emergency session because the vote would be procedural, according to the diplomats.

Unlike at the Security Council, resolutions that come before the members of the General Assembly aren't binding. Still, a successful vote can send a clear international message, and Russia wouldn't be able to veto a resolution at the General Assembly.

....

"



https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26

[rhg2052]

https://twitter.com/MaxKennerly/status/1497643853851021314?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

It's happening:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_22_1423

European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States joint statement:

The following measures will be brought forward:
1) Disconnection of certain Russian banks from SWIFT
2) Russia central bank assets paralized
3) Russian oligarchs assets frozen on EU market

Ugh, certain Russian banks is incredibly half assed and just gives them time to switch to the crappy Chinese knock off.

[urutzizu]

It's happening:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/STATEMENT_22_1423

European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States joint statement:

The following measures will be brought forward:
1) Disconnection of certain Russian banks from SWIFT
2) Russia central bank assets paralized
3) Russian oligarchs assets frozen on EU market

Ugh, certain Russian banks is incredibly half assed and just gives them time to switch to the crappy Chinese knock off.

Means Germany got what it wanted. Better than nothing, though.

Germany supports a "targeted and functional" restriction of the Swift international payment system for Russia. Work is being done "at high pressure" on how Russia's decoupling from Swift can be limited in such a way that "it hits the right people"

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/MaxKennerly/status/1497643853851021314?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

You know I just got back from having a cig after a few shots with my wife and was telling her my personal opinion that Putin likely isn't that good a chess player after all, despite all anecdotal evidence on his impressive CV.

I was "when was the last time you saw Putin playing a live chess game on Russian TV? His actions in Ukraine appear to be strategic and tactical blunder after blunder.... "

[Storr]

Reminder:

Remain hopeful, but not naive

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1497694724144218114

It's not really helpful that both sides in this war have many of the same equipment. (Not really surprising, since they both are descended from the Soviet Red Army)

The Russians have been wearing arm bands on their arms, because both armies wear the same combat uniforms as well. I'd guess marking vehicles with white "Z" and "O" markings was done (at least in part) so that Russian and Ukrainian vehicles could be distinguished from one another.
Though one benefit for Ukraine is that they can use any Russian equipment captured since ammunition and parts are compatible.

[NOVA Green]

US Military assessments of Russian Ukranian invasion update per CNN:

Apologies if it's an overquote, but CNN doesn't have a paid subscription and link is at bottom of post.

"Russia's invasion of Ukraine is encountering "stiffer than expected" resistance from the Ukrainian military as well as unexpected difficulties supplying its forces, two senior US officials with direct knowledge tell CNN.

On the battlefield, Russia is suffering heavier losses in personnel, armor and aircraft than expected. This is due, in part, to the fact Ukrainian air defenses have performed better than anticipated in pre-invasion US intelligence assessments. In addition, Russia has yet to establish air supremacy over Ukraine, a senior defense official said, as the Ukrainian Air Force and air defense systems fight for control of the airspace.

Ukrainian air defenses, including aircraft, do continue to be operable and continue to engage and deny access to Russian aircraft in places over the country,” the official said.
Without uncontested control of the skies, it becomes more difficult for an army on the move to see and strike targets from the air.

Officials caution this picture of the battlefield is just a moment in time, and the situation on the ground could change very quickly as Russian forces keep up their assault.

The Ukrainian military has a number of different anti-aircraft weapons, including radar-guided and heat-seeking missiles, as well as anti-aircraft guns, according to IHS Janes. The US has also provided Stinger anti-aircraft missiles in recent weeks, as have other NATO allies.

As of Saturday evening, the US had not seen any indication the Russian military has taken control over any Ukrainian cities, the official said, even as Russian forces have moved to surround some population centers, including the capital of Kyiv.

Keeping Russia's large invasion force supplied with fuel and ammunition has also proven difficult. As one senior US official explained, Russia anticipated a fast victory and may have neglected to plan for sufficient resupply. Supply lines, this official explained, are a "definite vulnerability."

What we assess now is that [Russia] had to commit a bit more logistics and sustainment, in fuel specifically, than what we believe they had planned to do this early in the operation,” said one of the officials.
Together, these challenges have thus far prevented the quick overthrow of major Ukrainian cities including Kyiv, which US officials were concerned could play out in a matter of days. The city of Kharkiv near Ukraine’s border with Russia also has not fallen to invading forces, which officials worried could happen on the invasion's first night.

These officials caution, however, Russian forces still greatly outnumber Ukrainian forces and Russia continues to maneuver these forces into position around major urban centers. It’s also unclear how much of the slower movement can be attributed to the logistical challenge of moving such a large force.

Russia has spun its slow advance in Ukraine as a stop to allow time for negotiations, not a military setback.

On Saturday, the Russian Ministry of Defense said its troops have been ordered to resume their offensive “in all directions,” after a suspension was ordered for negotiations with the Ukrainian government. The ministry said the offensive was ordered to continue after Ukraine abandoned the consultations.

A Ukrainian presidential adviser denied in the early hours Saturday that Ukraine had refused to negotiate.

“They are having problems,” a NATO official explained, pointing to the alliance’s latest intelligence. “They lack diesel, they are proceeding way too slow and morale is obviously an issue.”

Asked whether Russians are likely to intensify their efforts, the official said they have no choice.

“They are way behind schedule,” he said. “This is getting out of hand for them, every additional day is very painful.”

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-26-22/index.html

[Pres Mike]

This is incredibly unlikely, but the next few days will be critical to Ukrainian independence. If they can drag out the siege of Kiev, killing thousands of Russians, than Putin might be forced to negotiate.

This of course assumes Putin still has some rationality left in his brain. And protests in Russia continue. And the oligarchs start getting annoyed. And China grows more wary of this mess.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/nbcpolitics/status/1497700710569459723?s=21

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Reminder:

Remain hopeful, but not naive

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1497694724144218114

It's not really helpful that both sides in this war have many of the same equipment. (Not really surprising, since they both are descended from the Soviet Red Army)

The Russians have been wearing arm bands on their arms, because both armies wear the same combat uniforms as well. I'd guess marking vehicles with white "Z" and "O" markings was done (at least in part) so that Russian and Ukrainian vehicles could be distinguished from one another.
Though one benefit for Ukraine is that they can use any Russian equipment captured since ammunition and parts are compatible.

All true, that makes sense. It seems they have no way of distinguishing planes, though...(at least visually)

[Aurelius]

Map of the current situation:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg/3000px-2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg.png

My analysis:

1. Russia is not far from linking up its southern advance with the Donbas provinces. Mariupol and Berdiansk will be critical. If Russia can take those cities they control Ukraine's entire Azov coast and can push northward to Zaporizhia. Mariupol in particular was a very pro-Russian city during Euromaidan though I suspect less so now.

2. Kharkiv and Sumy are still holding out so far. These two eastern cities will be crucial to stopping Russia's advance from the eastern border. If they can maintain strong resistance and bog down Russia's forces that'll distract them from being able to quickly advance across the wide open tanker country to the west. If those cities fall there's very little between them and Kyiv.

3. Chernihiv remaining standing has been crucial to blocking Russian pathways toward Kyiv. As it stands, this forces them around to the northwestern approach through the Chornobyl zone, and the Kyiv Reservoir prevents them from using the northeast approach without first taking Chernihiv.

4. The southern advance has been the fastest of any front in part because it is the flattest, most wide open land of anywhere in Ukraine. However, the large reservoir along the Dnieper near Nikopol and Zaporizhia will be a major obstacle. I don't know if there are bridges across this reservoir but if so I expect Ukraine will be taking big stands there and ready to destroy the bridges if necessary. Hard to get tanks across a big body of water.

5. More generally, because Eastern Ukraine is so flat and wide open, resistance in the cities crucial to keep Russian forces held up because there is so little in the way of natural terrain to slow them down. The chain of reservoirs on the Dnieper, though, provides a strong line of defense for Ukraine to regroup if the eastern cities fall and Russia sweeps across that expanse. I would not be surprised to see a major engagement in Dnipro or Zaporizhia soon.

6. Looking much farther ahead on this one, but I can see a possibility of Russia taking Mykolaiv and then surging up the Southern Bug to attack Kyiv from the back door, especially if the eastern front turns into a stalemate.

I don't know much about urban warfare so I can't say much about the situation in Kyiv.

Fingers crossed that the crucial cities stay standing and that this broad advance from the southern and eastern fronts does not come to fruition.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/notasportrayed/status/1497698584128593920?s=21

Ukrainians are great.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1497701484003213317?t=N1p0ZVIPVryuxYsGmj3-rQ...

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-26/eu-u-s-agree-to-disconnect-some-russian-banks-from-swift

"Western Allies Agree to Disconnect Some Russian Banks From SWIFT"

My guess was correct.  The SWIFT sanction is mostly to target Russian banks to try to trigger a bank run in Russia without halting the energy trade

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Lots of talk about SWIFT but the financial experts I follow say the attack on the Russian central bank's ability to exchange its foreign currency reserves is much more damaging and a nuclear step. Direct attack on Russia's ability to support the rouble long-term.

https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1497697957155676171?s=20&t=XX5Jl1esb5h...

[jaichind]

Lots of talk about SWIFT but the financial experts I follow say the attack on the Russian central bank's ability to exchange its foreign currency reserves is much more damaging and a nuclear step. Direct attack on Russia's ability to support the rouble long-term.

https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1497697957155676171?s=20&t=XX5Jl1esb5h...

Agreed.  If the SWIFT sanction does not hit Russia's ability to export energy then they will manage with their alternative message system.  If Russian reserves in USD AND EUR are frozen then the damage will be large and RUB will fall a bunch.  Again, Russia will survive but there will be significant damage in terms of surging inflation.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

I guess the question that still remains is, will the Russians launch an offensive to Lviv from Belarus?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko of the centrist Holos party tweets:


https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1497703531985481733

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's something I just found that's hilarious. Pokes fun at Russia's performance in Ukraine thus far.

[NOVA Green]

Map of the current situation:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4f/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg/3000px-2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg.png

My analysis:

1. Russia is not far from linking up its southern advance with the Donbas provinces. Mariupol and Berdiansk will be critical. If Russia can take those cities they control Ukraine's entire Azov coast and can push northward to Zaporizhia. Mariupol in particular was a very pro-Russian city during Euromaidan though I suspect less so now.

2. Kharkiv and Sumy are still holding out so far. These two eastern cities will be crucial to stopping Russia's advance from the eastern border. If they can maintain strong resistance and bog down Russia's forces that'll distract them from being able to quickly advance across the wide open tanker country to the west. If those cities fall there's very little between them and Kyiv.

3. Chernihiv remaining standing has been crucial to blocking Russian pathways toward Kyiv. As it stands, this forces them around to the northwestern approach through the Chornobyl zone, and the Kyiv Reservoir prevents them from using the northeast approach without first taking Chernihiv.

4. The southern advance has been the fastest of any front in part because it is the flattest, most wide open land of anywhere in Ukraine. However, the large reservoir along the Dnieper near Nikopol and Zaporizhia will be a major obstacle. I don't know if there are bridges across this reservoir but if so I expect Ukraine will be taking big stands there and ready to destroy the bridges if necessary. Hard to get tanks across a big body of water.

5. More generally, because Eastern Ukraine is so flat and wide open, resistance in the cities crucial to keep Russian forces held up because there is so little in the way of natural terrain to slow them down. The chain of reservoirs on the Dnieper, though, provides a strong line of defense for Ukraine to regroup if the eastern cities fall and Russia sweeps across that expanse. I would not be surprised to see a major engagement in Dnipro or Zaporizhia soon.

6. Looking much farther ahead on this one, but I can see a possibility of Russia taking Mykolaiv and then surging up the Southern Bug to attack Kyiv from the back door, especially if the eastern front turns into a stalemate.

I don't know much about urban warfare so I can't say much about the situation in Kyiv.

Fingers crossed that the crucial cities stay standing and that this broad advance from the southern and eastern fronts does not come to fruition.

#6: Just saw a live CNN report from Mykoliev and Ukranians blew up a bridge to stop Russians from advancing....

[Storr]

Here's something I just found that's hilarious. Pokes fun at Russia's performance in Ukraine thus far.

related: https://twitter.com/acitrano/status/1497705132632403971?s=20&t=1EQIyuKNHRJlT...

[It’s so Joever]

I guess the question that still remains is, will the Russians launch an offensive to Lviv from Belarus?

Probably, why else would they pile up troops in Brest?

[NOVA Green]

Road Sign Campaign is now real official Ukranian Gvt Policy per Washington Post:

"Ukrainian agency, urging removal of road signs, posts fake photo with real message for Russia

"The Ukrainian government is planning to remove road signs in hopes of confusing Russian troops — and is encouraging citizens to help.

Ukravtodor, the government agency responsible for Ukraine’s national road system, announced the move on social media on Saturday, while sharing a fake photo of a road sign echoing the sentiments many hold toward Russian troops.

The photo of the blue road sign was altered to state, “Go f--- yourselves,” in three different ways.

“Let’s help them get straight to hell,” the agency wrote on Facebook. “Ukravtodor calls on all road organizations, territorial communities, local governments to immediately begin dismantling nearby road signs.”

A spokesperson with Ukravtodor did not immediately respond to a request for comment Saturday.

...."


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/26/russia-ukraine-war-news-updates/#link-R2K3JOQR4BG6ZFMPF63DLLQLAU

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's something I just found that's hilarious. Pokes fun at Russia's performance in Ukraine thus far.

related: https://twitter.com/acitrano/status/1497705132632403971?s=20&t=1EQIyuKNHRJlT...

Lol.
I'm not even upset if that's bad intelligence or not. The memes are outright hilarious.
Memes help make moments like this not terrible to go through.

[Omega21]

Oil depot near Vasylkiv hit

https://twitter.com/AlertsNew2022/status/1497706215899553798

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497709487104397318