Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[It’s so Joever]

Holy moly, it seems like Russia is moving troops in Belarus near the Polish border. Putin apparently wants to threaten NATO.

https://twitter.com/demianvonosten/status/1497544786718380032

I assume that if Putin is insane enough to invade Poland, it would drag all of NATO into this?

No way he does this…right?
But if he does, he will have made the bed.

Almost poetic, World War Two began with Poland, World War Three would begin with Poland.

Although if we are being honest, it’s more likely he is doing this in preparation of an offensive into NW Ukraine.

[Storr]

I assume that if Putin is insane enough to invade Poland, it would drag all of NATO into this?

yes, of course

I feel what's more likely is an invasion of Western Ukraine from the north. Brest is the closest large Belarussian city to the Ukranian-Belarussian border in the west.

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/1497596035887247364?s=20&t=_SniZzGecIu...

Seems like Russian gains all around today. I suppose the Brest contingency might move south to threaten Lvov

[The Free North]

Russia's struggles in Ukraine dont send good signals to China for Taiwan. The Russia Army is better equipped and there isn't a straight between the invader and the invaded.

[Sir Mohamed]

I assume that if Putin is insane enough to invade Poland, it would drag all of NATO into this?

yes, of course

Tbh, not necessarily. If you further spin this and if Putin is insane enough, he could just demand Poland and Baltics to leave NATO or be occupied/annexed by Russia and threaten nuclear warfare. NATO HQ - or de facto Joe Biden - would be left with the decision to either surrender said countries or start WWIII with millions of deaths. I'm not sure millions of Europeans in France, Germany, Netherlands etc. and millions of Americans would be willing to die to have vast parts of their countries as nuclear deserts because of a bunch of Eastern European countries.

Not that I think this is likely, though Putin could for whatever reason decide it was worth the risk.

[Alcibiades]

https://twitter.com/herszenhorn/status/1497598155621380101

Better late than never…

[The Free North]

Bosphorus closed to Russian navy.

[Hnv1]

Russia's struggles in Ukraine dont send good signals to China for Taiwan. The Russia Army is better equipped and there isn't a straight between the invader and the invaded.

An invasion to Taiwan would be the largest amphibious operation in history. World War scales. The Chinese are not going to be up to that for decades

[2016]

https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/1497596035887247364?s=20&t=_SniZzGecIu...

Seems like Russian gains all around today. I suppose the Brest contingency might move south to threaten Lvov

If Russia can connect their forces in the East with the South it will look dire!

I very much admire President Zelenskyys Resistance BUT there is something like false heroism.

This War I feel will not have a better outcome like the 2008 War in Georgia. It maybe delayed but inevitably Ukrainian Forces will be pushed further and further back.

[Storr]

Bosphorus closed to Russian navy.

Turkey says it hasn't.
https://twitter.com/laurapitel/status/1497585905892274179?s=20&t=6yNw8gpTsrz...

[The Free North]

Bosphorus closed to Russian navy.

Turkey says it hasn't.
https://twitter.com/laurapitel/status/1497585905892274179?s=20&t=6yNw8gpTsrz...

Ah saw it on twitter nm then

[2016]

Bosphorus closed to Russian navy.

This is false! Montreux Protocol prohibits it!

[compucomp]

Agree. You cannot overstate the morale boost he is providing.

I commend Zelensky's personal courage. He may have done a poor job preparing his nation for war, but there's no doubt he is now raising the morale of his nation and boosting their will to fight. Looks like it was enough for the Ukrainians to hold Kiev for now, but he is still under threat and if he were captured it would crush Ukrainian morale. He either has a highly secret (and likely highly dangerous) plan to evacuate when he is under imminent threat, or it is his intention to become a martyr. Nothing of the former has leaked so I think the latter is a real possibility.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Russians claim that they halted their operations later yesterday due to the prospect of talks with Ukraine.  It seems that Ukraine has since rejected these talks, as per the Russians, so now Putin has already ordered a resumption of the offensive.

Was there a chance to stall the Russians long enough to get resituated? Or was Putin lying as a cover that he was caught with his pants down and needed time to pull them up?

Given the fuel shortages we are hearing about, I’m guessing it was stall tactic because the logistics hadn’t actually been sorted.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Russian born (he now has dual Russian/American citizenship) National Hockey League star Alexander Ovetchkin, who's already one of the greatest of all time and has always publicly shown support for Putin said "Please, no more war" last night.

""Well, he's my president. But, how I said, I'm not in politics. I'm an athlete," Ochevkin replied. "How I said, hope everything's going to be done soon. It's a hard situation right now for both sides. Everything, like how I said, everything I hope is going to be end, and I'm not in control of situation.""

""Please, no more war," he urged. "Doesn't matter who's in the war. Russia. Ukraine. Different countries. I think we live in a world like we have to live in peace and a great world.""

https://twitter.com/Sportsnet/status/1497307285067997184?s=20&t=joCt93LwSCDM...
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/sport/ovechkin-nhl-war/index.html

Generic war is and seems to be the safe take if you are a Russian celebrity. Actually outright condemning Putin would put you in a bad place back home.

[DavidB.]

Tbh, not necessarily. If you further spin this and if Putin is insane enough, he could just demand Poland and Baltics to leave NATO or be occupied/annexed by Russia and threaten nuclear warfare. NATO HQ - or de facto Joe Biden - would be left with the decision to either surrender said countries or start WWIII with millions of deaths. I'm not sure millions of Europeans in France, Germany, Netherlands etc. and millions of Americans would be willing to die to have vast parts of their countries as nuclear deserts because of a bunch of Eastern European countries.

Not that I think this is likely, though Putin could for whatever reason decide it was worth the risk.

Extremely unlikely scenario. If any EU countries are attacked, the rest of the EU will absolutely respond, and I have no doubt there would be more than enough public support for it in most countries.

In any case, all of this probably already means an EU army will be set up.

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1497569648216322059

Yulia Tymoshenko, Yury Luzenko and other deputies of the Verkhovna Rada are armed as well.

[MaxQue]

Bosphorus closed to Russian navy.

This is false! Montreux Protocol prohibits it!

Article 19 gives Turkey that power, as it forbids countries at war from using it.

[2016]

Agree. You cannot overstate the morale boost he is providing.

I commend Zelensky's personal courage. He may have done a poor job preparing his nation for war, but there's no doubt he is now raising the morale of his nation and boosting their will to fight. Looks like it was enough for the Ukrainians to hold Kiev for now, but he is still under threat and if he were captured it would crush Ukrainian morale. He either has a highly secret (and likely highly dangerous) plan to evacuate when he is under imminent threat, or it is his intention to become a martyr. Nothing of the former has leaked so I think the latter is a real possibility.

Agree with you here totally!

[MaxQue]

Agree. You cannot overstate the morale boost he is providing.

I commend Zelensky's personal courage. He may have done a poor job preparing his nation for war, but there's no doubt he is now raising the morale of his nation and boosting their will to fight. Looks like it was enough for the Ukrainians to hold Kiev for now, but he is still under threat and if he were captured it would crush Ukrainian morale. He either has a highly secret (and likely highly dangerous) plan to evacuate when he is under imminent threat, or it is his intention to become a martyr. Nothing of the former has leaked so I think the latter is a real possibility.

I feel that, like Putin, Zelensky also wants its place in the history books, but in a rather different role.

[2016]

Bosphorus closed to Russian navy.

This is false! Montreux Protocol prohibits it!

Article 19 gives Turkey that power, as it forbids countries at war from using it.

It also says Ships must be allowed to their Home Bases!

[jaichind]

The ROC media is talking about, ironically, going through a PRC payment messaging system, for trade with Russia in case SWIFT takes Russia offline.

[MaxQue]

Bosphorus closed to Russian navy.

This is false! Montreux Protocol prohibits it!

Article 19 gives Turkey that power, as it forbids countries at war from using it.

It also says Ships must be allowed to their Home Bases!

I somehow doubt most of the Russian Fleet is based in the Black Sea. There must be a significant part based at Kaliningrad.

Also, Article 21 can also be used to delay.

[Sir Mohamed]

Might be a ridiculous question, though it just crossed my mind whether there's any possibility that Mr. Putin will be indicted before the Den Haag International Criminal Court? Or whether it's somehow possible that an international arrest warrant for war crimes is issued? So he couldn't leave Russia or enter any country that would enforce such?

[Logical]

He probably got lost or something but this is very embarrassing.
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1497603319526834183?t=ngKjVYRWIPcKWKPuived...