Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509
Is Germany the only holdout now?

Lindner said Germany is open to it today

Thank god. I don’t know what’s going on with German leadership but they’ve been unbelievably soft focused and naive re:Russia since we’ll before the Ukraine situation. (CFE Nordstrom 2, yes let’s make ourselves cripplingly dependent on Russian energy imports, don’t see how that could back fire, or Angela Merkel’s little hissy fit that we were listening in on German-Russian talks).

[urutzizu]

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509

Is Germany the only holdout now?

Lindner said Germany is open to it today

Hm, well he said open to it if all EU countries agree which is a quite convenient bar to set (which even if Italy changes mind, still leaves many aside Germany opposed like Austria, Hungary Bulgaria, I believe NL too was mentioned by evening news yesterday but not 100% sure). This evening he said also said first the implications have to be studied (which EU commission is currently doing) , especially regarding if Russia will still deliver gas as then it will be very hard for them to get paid. Although he also said that simply asking the question of the consequences does not mean exclusion of the option per se, even if the consequences are bad.

Also the Foreign Minister today (who is actually the most Russia-sceptical minister) said that she is sceptical because it makes it very difficult to finance humanitarian projects, from experience when it was done with Iran. I actually think this is pretty pathetic reasoning, because it seems pretty clear that we are going to have to look again at the full bandwidth of our relationship with Russia, including as already demonstrated culture/sport and humanitarian issues are all touched. If the economic price is too high, then be honest.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Then war continues.

Russians are going to go until either Zelensky surrenders or they have removed Zelensky from power forcefully.

Yeah my point is that'll happen regardless of whatever talks occur. The die's been cast. We're at the point where anything less than capturing the Maidan is a failure for the Kremlin.

The Russians are showing some restraint here. It's been commented on by military types they're not using their artillery much at all when Russian military strategy historically has relied on artillery a good amount, and there's still plenty of soldiers on the borders that have not invaded yet. So they're not trying to kill everyone a la say Grozny, but if told "f#ck you, we're going to die to the last man", the artillery is being held in reserve and could come in. That could be the threat to force Ukraine to the table.

We'll see what happens at Minsk. Russian ground forces are in Kiev and we have a day and a half until the American military intelligence prediction of when it would fall.

Right but if Ukraine comes to the table and signs an armistice I don't see what/who is stopping the Russians from simply waiting a bit and trying again to take the whole country.

The Russians were always able to launch a similar operation against Ukraine.
What matters is does Moscow think it will gain from such an operation.
Putin won't invade just because he can. He invades if he thinks the situation demands it (which is not at all an easy threshold to reach).
From his public statements he clearly doesn't think this war is anything but defensive for the country he leads anyway. A good place to dig in and fight, with odds that are most in his favor.

What statements are you talking about? Russian official statements have been all over the place, but ‘Ukraine can not exist apart from Russia’ and writing articles about Russians as an inseparable triune people (that is Belorussians and Ukrainians are just Russian by another name) don’t seem to be consistent with being forced into a war of defense. For that matter, planing false flag attacks, making up stories about mass graves and genocide, and trying to plant articles about Ukrainians imaginary nuclear program are not things you do if you serious believe to be undertaking a defensive war.

Aside from which, he set out clear war aims the day he invaded. ‘Denazify Ukraine and liberate the oppressed Russian communities’. That is to say, he’s going to annex as much of Ukraine as he thinks he can hold outright, kill any Ukrainian official he gets his hands on, and install a puppet dictator ala his man in Minsk to force Russify the rump Ukraine, erode public institutions, hand over internal powers to Russian dominated international institutions, disappear pro-Western and nationalist dissidents, and cultivate a Russophile elite until he find the Ukrainians subservient enough to join the Russian Federation proper. That’s the end game here.

Why now, well large scale modern military ops have long lead times and between the Obama ‘pivot to Asia’ and Trump actively destroying NATO internally, he probably thought he had time to let Western capacities in Europe atrophy while swallowing Ukraine bit by bit.

I'm not too well-versed in specific Russian statements. But I think that they perceive themselves to be defending their sphere from outside forces a.ka. Western influence, with NATO expansion moving east in particular being quite worrying for the Kremlin. Thus, defensive war means defending Russia's loose hold over Ukraine, lest an quasi-Western-aligned government sit directly on Russia's southern-central border.

Thing is, as Nathan said earlier, "no battle plan survives contact with the enemy". He's finding himself having to wing it, a la Bush 2003. He's making up whole stuff out of plain cloth. He's quite literally lying to his people in some respects. His evoking of Nazism is a reminder to Russia of the Great Patriotic War (which is what the Russians called the conflict with the Nazis in the east). Even today, if you want to be edgy on the Russian internet, insult WW2 veterans. Russia's never had a conflict as intense as that one. They are more WW2-obsessed than we are, and for good reason: iirc, 25 million Soviet citizens died.

He's a ruthless KGB man and will do what has to be done to get what he wants.

At the moment, there's probably so much uncertainty that not even Putin can properly be sure of what he actually can expect to get. He likely just assumes (likely correctly) that he might get some of what he wants if this gets to the negotiating table. And then he can return home a victor, while also getting more regional security.

But I can't postulate anything with certainty.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is excluding Russia from the ESC the correct decision to make? In my opinion it is.

Is it news that relates to the ongoing war agaínst Ukraine? Yes, it is.

Is this thread there we discuss and report events related to the ongoing against Ukraine? Yes, it is.

None of that changes the fact it's all pointless meaningless bullsh**t as it relates to the conduct and outcome of the conflict in Ukraine.

As Torrain pointed out, it creates - in conjunction with many other, similar measures that have been or will be taken - a clear and coherent message to the Russian people. Whether it will have any sort of effect in the end is unclear. In the most ideal case it helps causing enough dissent within Russia to eventually lead to the country's first "colour revolution". Is this more likely to come to pass than not? I don't think so. But one can still try and hope. The very same actually applies to any form of economic or political sanction the West decides against Russia as would giving weapons to Ukraine. Everybody hopes that it achieves something, but it could very well turn out to be pointless and meaningless in the end. So why are we writing posts in this thread anyway?

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509
Is Germany the only holdout now?

Lindner said Germany is open to it today

Thank god. I don’t know what’s going on with German leadership but they’ve been unbelievably soft focused and naive re:Russia since we’ll before the Ukraine situation. (CFE Nordstrom 2, yes let’s make ourselves cripplingly dependent on Russian energy imports, don’t see how that could back fire, or Angela Merkel’s little hissy fit that we were listening in on German-Russian talks).

Oh, it's not only Appeasement-Angela, it is a widespread sentiment among Germans. Some polls from January/February:

60% favoring opening North Stream 2
28% opposed

51% in favor of "security" guarantees for Russia
28% opposed

43% in favor of new sanctions for Russia
44% opposed

20% for delivering weapons to Ukraine
71% opposed

22% opposing Ukraine to join NATO at all
31% opposing Ukraine to join NATO in the next years
28% against excluding keeping Ukraine out of NATO

How come? Anecdotal evidence, but it seems like the typical hubris of downplaying Eastern European security concerns and their interests (see FDP/Lindner's proposal to freeze the Crimea conflict in 2017 to ensure closer ties to Russia and reluctance to deliver weapons at Ukraine's request), while being generally relatively ignorant of what's going on in the "Eastern bloc" as it's often still called is a relatively widespread sentiment.

Sources:
https://presse.wdr.de/plounge/tv/das_erste/2022/01/20220106_ard_deutschlandtrend_ukraine.html
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/deutschlandtrend-2897.html
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/deutschlandtrend-2913.html

[President Johnson]

It very much seems that Chernobyl situation is under control and there's no radioactivity at concerning levels. At least we can be relieved about this one.

https://twitter.com/iaeaorg/status/1497237647458283521

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509

Is Germany the only holdout now?

Lindner said Germany is open to it today

Hm, well he said open to it if all EU countries agree which is a quite convenient bar to set (which even if Italy changes mind, still leaves many aside Germany opposed like Austria, Hungary Bulgaria, I believe NL too was mentioned by evening news yesterday but not 100% sure). This evening he said also said first the implications have to be studied (which EU commission is currently doing) , especially regarding if Russia will still deliver gas as then it will be very hard for them to get paid. Although he also said that simply asking the question of the consequences does not mean exclusion of the option per se, even if the consequences are bad.

Also the Foreign Minister today (who is actually the most Russia-sceptical minister) said that she is sceptical because it makes it very difficult to finance humanitarian projects, from experience when it was done with Iran. I actually think this is pretty pathetic reasoning, because it seems pretty clear that we are going to have to look again at the full bandwidth of our relationship with Russia, including as already demonstrated culture/sport and humanitarian issues are all touched. If the economic price is too high, then be honest.

The thing is... events have started to move very fast in Germany too. Things that were deemed impossible a mere week ago have by now become harsh reality. I also happened to read about Annalena Baerbock's stance on Swift earlier today. Question is, the way things are going, will it still be her stance the day after tomorrow?

[jaichind]

Most Indian media are for a neutral or pro-Russia position.  Many seem to be disturbed by Russia's action but there is even greater concern about backing what they consider double standards of the West.  There are many comments about how Canada dealt with the recent protests and Canada lecturing India how India dealt with farm protests of 2020-2021 as part of the hypocrisy of the collective West.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

I would have to imagine its just posturing. Russia, as far as I know, is not ready for any sort of invasion in Finland. Air strikes will likely see both countries join Nato. How can Russia out maneuver that?

Also:

https://twitter.com/Kivelart/status/1497232550447796224

[2016]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497280340846682112

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

I would have to imagine its just posturing. Russia, as far as I know, is not ready for any sort of invasion in Finland. Air strikes will likely see both countries join Nato. How can Russia out maneuver that?

Also:

https://twitter.com/Kivelart/status/1497232550447796224

Maybe they just want to see Jesus really badly.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Most Indian media are for a neutral or pro-Russia position.  Many seem to be disturbed by Russia's action but there is even greater concern about backing what they consider double standards of the West.  There are many comments about how Canada dealt with the recent protests and Canada lecturing India how India dealt with farm protests of 2020-2021 as part of the hypocrisy of the collective West.

Looks like I probably am gonna have to get ready to debate family members of mine on this issue this weekend

[StateBoiler]

Is excluding Russia from the ESC the correct decision to make? In my opinion it is.

Is it news that relates to the ongoing war agaínst Ukraine? Yes, it is.

Is this thread there we discuss and report events related to the ongoing against Ukraine? Yes, it is.

None of that changes the fact it's all pointless meaningless bullsh**t as it relates to the conduct and outcome of the conflict in Ukraine.

As Torrain pointed out, it creates - in conjunction with many other, similar measures that have been or will be taken - a clear and coherent message to the Russian people.

And you and him seriously believe that those people are reading this thread, and that the items that are going to send them over the edge from mildly being uninterested to seeing the wrong in this invasion for Russia is the F1 Grand Prix got cancelled and they were kicked out of a song contest? I can hook you up to a lie detector, and that's what you're going to tell me you believe?

Meanwhile no one has commented on what the f#ck actually is going on in this thread on the ground in Ukraine - which is all that matters.

[Mike88]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

So let me get this straight: Putin invades neighbor countries and then is surprised when neighbors want to join a defense alliance? Absolutely incomprehensible!

[StateBoiler]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

Seems like telling all your neighbors you will invade them if they don’t have a nuclear power to protect them is a bit counter productive that goal.

[2016]

I expect some heavy Russian Artillery Fire tonight and throughout the entire Night unfortunately.

Putin has modernized his Black Sea Fleet and most of the Cruise Missiles, Balistic Missiles coming from the Destroyers & Submarines in the Black Sea.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet

Russia doesn't have the sophisticated ability like the USA to launch them from land.

[WMS]

Time to check world reactions again!

Those Supporting Russia, hereafter to be known as “Sh!+hole Countries”:
-obviously Belarus and all the Russian puppets like Abkhazia
-Artsakh, hey congrats, you actually made me think more kindly of Azerbaijan now
-The Central African Republic, oh yeah, actual neocolonialism in action by Russia here
-Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and special guest Evo Morales! I don’t want to hear a f***ing WORD from the Latin American International Socialist contingent bitching about American imperialism while remaining silent or outright supporting what Russia is doing
-Syria, Iran, and the Houthis, “but what about U.S.-“ F*** off, Putinists
-Myanmar, ‘The spokesperson for Myanmar's State Administration Council, Zaw Min Tun, supported Russia's decision, stating that "Russia was acting to protect its sovereignty" and praised Russia's role in balancing global power” gee that sounds like some posters in this thread, well @$$holes will be @$$holes, speaking of which
-hey look it’s China, f*** them too
-in a reversal of earlier reports, Kazakhstan, not a shocker really
-why it’s Donald Trump!

A Bit Less Overly Pro-Russian But It’s Clear Where They Stand:
-Nigeria, wow Russia and China have been busy in Africa it seems with bribing governments
-Pakistan, visiting Moscow during this crisis to get sweet trade deals, can we please stop pretending these snakes are “major non-NATO allies” already?
-Sri Lanka, literally “both sides” using, clearly doing what China wants
-Bolivia, no condemnation of Russia, but this IS the government that cheered Daniel Ortega’s “re-election” just recently and their statements are weak, plus the opposition is having a field day snarking about this
-Republika Srpska, who could have seen THAT coming?
-and here’s Gerhard Schroeder!

Dishonorable Mentions:
-India, really now Modi, THIS is when you choose to be a dick? You’re de facto on the side of China by doing this you know
-Jair Bolonsaro in Brazil, hilariously his own Vice President disagrees with him on this
-Naftalli Bennett, no condemnation, yes yes the Russian Jews are part of the coalition and more importantly you’re still better than Netanyahu
-Serbia, wow even Hungary is condemning Russia and you sure are looking isolated in Europe, huh?
-plenty of Republicans, I don’t have a count of the traitorous lot
-The Scarsdale Currency Trading Corporation

Lots of Neutrals so far in the developing world, but not all of them!

And The Anti-Russians, oh look it’s most of the parts of the world that don’t suck

In conclusion, F*** Russia and everyone who supports their actions.

[Former President tack50]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

Worth noting that iirc the EU has a NATO-like "call to arms" mechanism (pretty sure France actually activated it in response to terrorism from ISIS in fact). Granted, it's weaker than the NATO equivalent and the EU's combined military is still probably not good, but it's better than nothing. The US would not be forced to join, but at least the EU-28 would be.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

The chances of this going hot were underestimated precisely because people didn't like the thought of war to begin with. They wanted to comfortably retreat to "oh, this is mostly a bluff" or some other explanation besides "yes, Putin intends to send his troops into Ukraine".
It is probably most often the case the risk of hot conflict is overestimated; this is one of the times when the opposite is true.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

If Putin dares to do anything against Finland, NATO will attack nonetheless, in my view. Finland is a EU member, thus, if Russia attacks Finland, it's invading the EU and there's a cooperation treaty between NATO and the EU, so a military response to it would most likely happen.

I don't see EU moving without the U.S. France and Germany literally admitted in the last 48 hours their militaries are horrifically unprepared for an intense conflict.

If I'm Ukraine, and I see NATO come to the defense of Finland when they wouldn't come to the defense of me, I'm pissed.

I don't see Russia going into Finland, but a lot of people didn't see Russia going into Ukraine either (in spite of forces being stationed on the border for 3 months).

France is unprepared for a conventional war, but it has enough nukes to provide a deterrent effect and the EU defence treaties it has signed would compel it to engage in some kind of war.

The guarantee probably isn’t as strong as article 5 (in reality, a NATO or EU member could ignore any treaty) but attacking an EU member would be a much bigger gamble than attacking Ukraine.

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

Putin doesn't want NATO Troops so close to his border, views it as Security Threat!

And I don't want to read your inane posts, but, that's life, you don't always get what you want.