Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Orwell]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1495775697121517570

Is this even Putin? Some time ago I noticed that he wears his watch on the right arm.

So uhh… Putin is left handed then. Because aren’t you supposed to wear your watch on your off hand.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Well that was an interesting meeting. Difficult to know what to make of it, could be the prelude to escalation or a climbdown. Seemed very much choreographed for the domestic audience.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Also, missed this earlier. Perfect example of why Russia is in a "use it or lose it" situation with the level of forward deployments on Ukraine's border. Keeping your spearhead units in this sort of condition for weeks would be damaging to their combat effectiveness.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1495654220288204800?s=20&t=XJ9kjB3Cvy-QEG...

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1495811034069835787

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Some guy got so stressed, he said, he wants to take DNR/LNR into Russia Federation  Putin corrected him, that nobody is talking about that now.

It was Naryshkin, the head of  Foreign Intelligence Service, LMAO. He was sh*tting his pants, it seemed.

https://twitter.com/SimonOstrovsky/status/1495792765279551488

[StateBoiler]

Some guy got so stressed, he said, he wants to take DNR/LNR into Russia Federation  Putin corrected him, that nobody is talking about that now.

It was Naryshkin, the head of  Foreign Intelligence Service, LMAO. He was sh*tting his pants, it seemed.

https://twitter.com/SimonOstrovsky/status/1495792765279551488

If this was pre-recorded, I view that as probably intentional. If they didn't want to leave that in there - it was a mistake - wouldn't you just edit it out?

[jaichind]

It was Naryshkin, the head of  Foreign Intelligence Service, LMAO. He was sh*tting his pants, it seemed.

https://twitter.com/SimonOstrovsky/status/1495792765279551488

Sounds like a "good cop bad cop" routine where Putin is the good cop

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1495816536853987334

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/gkates/status/1495811398768672778

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495821979227762697

IT'S OFFICIAL

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Well that was an interesting meeting. Difficult to know what to make of it, could be the prelude to escalation or a climbdown. Seemed very much choreographed for the domestic audience.

So you still think, that main scenario is to invade Ukraine taking Kiev (on Feb 16th)? 

[jaichind]

Well that was an interesting meeting. Difficult to know what to make of it, could be the prelude to escalation or a climbdown. Seemed very much choreographed for the domestic audience.

So you still think, that main scenario is to invade Ukraine taking Kiev (on Feb 16th)?  

Well, one can argue that recognizing the independence of the Donetsk republics, Russia is goading Ukraine to take aggressive action at the border which in turn can justify a massive Russian military response.  It can be read as a false flag by other means.  It could also mean that from here Russia has done "enough" to satisfy its domestic pressure and can now deescalate from here.

[jaichind]

Question: Does Russia recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states?  Last I recall it was no but I could be wrong about that.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Well that was an interesting meeting. Difficult to know what to make of it, could be the prelude to escalation or a climbdown. Seemed very much choreographed for the domestic audience.

So you still think, that main scenario is to invade Ukraine taking Kiev (on Feb 16th)?  

Well, one can argue that recognizing the independence of the Donetsk republics, Russia is goading Ukraine to take aggressive action at the border which in turn can justify a massive Russian military response.  It can be read as a false flag by other means.  It could also mean that from here Russia has done "enough" to satisfy its domestic pressure and can now deescalate from here.

Well, yes. It raises the stakes, perhaps, considerably, too. But my understanding that Thersites has always dismissed this possibility and believed that full invasion is the most likely scenario from here.

[jaichind]

Putin's speech so far: Soviets bad.  I agree.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Very angry Putin wants to fulfill decommunisation of Ukraine [by annexing Donbass?].

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Powerful Anthony Eden vibes to this rambling mess of a speech from Putin.

[jaichind]

This speech is going on for too long.  Get to the point.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The price of warm water has raised way too much as a reason to annex 

[Aurelius]

For months I confidently maintained that Putin was bluffing to extract concessions and Russia would not invade. I am starting to fear that I have been wrong. Fingers crossed that this is not the case.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1495838034968907778

[jaichind]

RUB weakens to below 80 during Putin's speech.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

This speech is going on for too long.  Get to the point.

I think, he'll end up ordering to throw out Lenin out of the Mausoleum 

[Cassius]

Imposing sanctions simply because Russia chose to recognise Donetsk and Luhansk would be a very odd (and unprecedented?) manouevre.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Putin is teaching Critical Russian Theory