Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[StateBoiler]

What exactly are the borders of these “states” that Putin just recognized? It’s in contention, no?

Read a tweet that a person in the Federation Council (Russian legislature's upper house) said it only applies to the current borders of the "line of control", not the whole of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. The separatists each control about a third of their oblasts' territory.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495875803636187143

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

CNN Senior Global Affairs analyst>>

https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1495869049233936385
Obviously, more to come, but...


https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1495856268464074753

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

#WW3 is trending on twitter.

[jaichind]

Obviously, more to come, but...

More to come as in: We are now sanctioning Putin's brother. If you do not cut it out we will sanction Putin's cousin then Putin's cousin's dog.....

[OSR stands with Israel]

We should put Iran level sanctions on Russia

[Crumpets]

What exactly are the borders of these “states” that Putin just recognized? It’s in contention, no?

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1495875803661455366

Red outlined area = separatist-controlled
Gray+light blue = separatist-claimed, controlled by Ukraine

The capitals of each oblast are under separatist control, but there are still several major cities in the claimed area under Ukrainian control - Mariupol, Severodonetsk, and Kramatorsk, to name a couple.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

We should put Iran level sanctions on Russia

All bad people should be put in jail. What's point with such statement, when not even John Bolton would put Iran level sanctions on Russia?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Silly last couple of pages. If you think this is just about Donbas or ends there then you're not paying attention. Not even to what Putin said a few hours ago.

[Splash]

American planes "went dark" before entering Ukraine. Possible evac mission?

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1495878310810824714

[jaichind]

I think the chances that Putin wants a conflict clearly has gone up.  But he seems to want to humiliate Ukraine so they cross the line of control so he can sell Russia as the victim to his domestic population and split the West.  If Ukraine does nothing he still gets a political win internally.  I think this works for him on the short run but is an unwise move by Putin on the long run. 

[KaiserDave]

Clearly an invasion has begun. We will see soon how far Putin will go. My dearest and most sincere hopes are with Ukrainian people.

[President Johnson]

However, I wonder whether Putin's latest decisions might backfire in the long term. What he does now is pushing the rest of Ukraine even further away from Russia and towards the West. Formerly neutral countries such as Finland consider joining NATO. EU and US are more united than ever, or at least in recent years. Basically he proves that Russian neighbors have to be fearful and invite increased NATO presence, which ultimately accomplishes to opposite of what he wants.

I just hope we sanction him back to the stone age so that this becomes the biggest strategical failure for him in the long run.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Also I like Putin's terminology

I'm sure you do.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Silly last couple of pages. If you think this is just about Donbas or ends there then you're not paying attention. Not even to what Putin said a few hours ago.

Where will it end then?

Imo, Putin can afford anything, including just wait and see. If Ze doesn't answer, he's toast politically (though, what difference Poroh will make?), if he does, he's toast quite literally. Regardless, Ukraine enters now a situation that potentially can become quite destabilizing both politically and/or economically.

[Crumpets]

Silly last couple of pages. If you think this is just about Donbas or ends there then you're not paying attention. Not even to what Putin said a few hours ago.

Well, the fact remains that there are now Russian troops heading across the border between Russia and the separatist regions and no other parts of the Ukraine-Russia border. So, for now, that is the focus of the conflict. Whether this is the main thrust of whatever Russia is planning or just a feint remains to be seen. But by framing this as a "peace-keeping operation" to protect the separatist republics, the farther Russian troops get from those republics, the less justification Putin has for Russians dying on their behalf. And even if Putin rants and raves about Ukraine being a puppet government or abandoning Russia as its true savior or whatever else he comes up with, a full invasion and occupation is a lot harder sell to the Russian people than a lower-risk campaign continuing to support the separatist groups Russia has already been supporting for eight years, but now with more troops. And I still don't think Putin wants to risk the level of domestic discontent that would go along with mass casualties in the Russian military and an open-ended occupation of all of Ukraine. That is, unless he's truly lost it, which let's face it, he might have.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Silly last couple of pages. If you think this is just about Donbas or ends there then you're not paying attention. Not even to what Putin said a few hours ago.

Well, the fact remains that there are now Russian troops heading across the border between Russia and the separatist regions and no other parts of the Ukraine-Russia border. So, for now, that is the focus of the conflict. Whether this is the main thrust of whatever Russia is planning or just a feint remains to be seen. But by framing this as a "peace-keeping operation" to protect the separatist republics, the farther Russian troops get from those republics, the less justification Putin has for Russians dying on their behalf. And even if Putin rants and raves about Ukraine being a puppet government or abandoning Russia as its true savior or whatever else he comes up with, a full invasion and occupation is a lot harder sell to the Russian people than a lower-risk campaign continuing to support the separatist groups Russia has already been supporting for eight years, but now with more troops. And I still don't think Putin wants to risk the level of domestic discontent that would go along with mass casualties in the Russian military and an open-ended occupation of all of Ukraine. That is, unless he's truly lost it, which let's face it, he might have.

Yeah, they has been prepared Donbass thing for years, literally from 2014. Moreover, *today* it takes no causalities.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Russia’s Shock and Awe
Why Moscow Would Use Overwhelming Force Against Ukraine

The Russian military would likely open its campaign with airstrikes targeting command-and-control systems, logistical centers, airports, air defenses, and other critical infrastructure. To carry them out, Moscow could use hundreds of bombers as well as ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles. The Russian military has also deployed near Ukraine high-powered artillery and long-range rocket systems to support its ground forces with overwhelming firepower.

Airstrikes would not go entirely uncontested. Russia’s air force lacks experience in suppressing or destroying enemy air defenses, and it rarely uses missiles that are designed to destroy radar. As a result, Ukraine’s meager air defenses could still pose a challenge. But Ukrainian air defenses are in short supply, and they would be unlikely to provide effective cover for most of the country’s ground troops. They would be quickly overwhelmed.

The opening air campaign would probably be short. Unlike Western militaries, which concentrate firepower in their air forces, Russia puts the bulk of its firepower in its ground forces, so it would quickly proceed to a ground campaign. It would start by using helicopters to drop troops into Ukraine. Russia might also strategically drop paratroopers and airlift troops and armored vehicles well behind the frontline to seize bridges or other infrastructure. The main effort of Russia’s ground campaign would be to create a pincer movement from the north that encircled Kyiv and enveloped the bulk of Ukraine’s ground forces in the eastern part of the country. Russian formations would then cut off Ukrainian supply lines and fragment the Ukrainian military into isolated pockets surrounded by Russian troops. Drones and combat helicopters would offer Russian ground forces reconnaissance and cover.

The Russian navy would play a supporting role. Moscow has worked hard to modernize its Black Sea Fleet, which now has platforms—from advanced conventional submarines to corvettes—that can launch precision-guided cruise missiles. With a range longer than 1,000 miles, these missiles can strike any part of Ukraine. Russia has also reinforced the Black Sea Fleet with landing ships from other fleets. It can now conduct a significant amphibious operation, using 1,000 to 2,000 troops, to help Russian forces attack across the narrow isthmus separating Crimea from Ukraine.

In addition to relying on traditional firepower, a Russian operation would be supported by electronic warfare. The Russian military has a panoply of digital capabilities that it can use to disrupt the Ukrainian forces’ navigation and communication systems. Ukrainian commanders could suddenly find it impossible to use established channels to coordinate their response to Russia’s invasion, forcing them to use less secure means of communication.

Achieving information dominance during a conflict is a cornerstone of Russian military strategy, and Moscow would also use its cyber-capabilities to engage in psychological warfare. Hoping to confuse and convince Ukraine’s citizens, leaders, and military personnel, it would spread disinformation online, deny access to online services, and impede communication. Cyberattacks could temporarily disable key infrastructure, such as electricity, but Ukraine is resilient and has withstood cyberattacks in the past. Traditional military strikes are likely to be far more effective at destroying critical nodes than are specialized cyber-operations.

[It’s so Joever]

Maybe we could assist Russia in some policy areas such as climate change.
With our technology, I bet we could make Moscow the first major 100% green city in Europe.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

But by framing this as a "peace-keeping operation" to protect the separatist republics, the farther Russian troops get from those republics, the less justification Putin has for Russians dying on their behalf.

If you watched Putin's speech, he made it pretty clear that all this was about much more than peacekeeping and Donetsk and Luhansk.

He also said much of the same things nearly a year ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Russians_and_Ukrainians


For anyone that wants to understand the background and has not already done so, I would recommend watching Putin's speech from earlier and/or reading his essay from last year.

Ultimately this will be Putin's justification, the peacekeeping etc is just a small peace of the puzzle, one little step in his plan.


It would be a lot better if you are correct, however, so hopefully you are!

[jaichind]

I wonder if Biden and Trudeau will demand that the Russian peacekeepers show their vaccine passports first before entering into the breakaway republics.

[afleitch]

Putin's terrible attempt at trying to false flag or grandstand that he was provoked has expectedly been a miserable failure. This is actually both quite telling and promising going forward. He's painted himself into a well trodden corner.

[Crumpets]

But by framing this as a "peace-keeping operation" to protect the separatist republics, the farther Russian troops get from those republics, the less justification Putin has for Russians dying on their behalf.

If you watched Putin's speech, he made it pretty clear that all this was about much more than peacekeeping and Donetsk and Luhansk.

He also said much of the same things nearly a year ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Russians_and_Ukrainians


For anyone that wants to understand the background and has not already done so, I would recommend watching Putin's speech from earlier and/or reading his essay from last year.

Ultimately this will be Putin's justification, the peacekeeping etc is just a small peace of the puzzle, one little step in his plan.


It would be a lot better if you are correct, however, so hopefully you are!

Just to be clear, I have no doubt at all Putin wants full Russian control over Ukraine, Belarus, and as much of the former USSR/Russian imperial sphere of influence as he can dream of. I just don't think he's fooling himself into thinking he can achieve full Russian domination of Ukraine under the current circumstances, at least not without a heck of a lot of risk to his personal position that I don't think he's willing to put up. If he gets eastern Ukraine, his popularity remains high, and Russia's military remains strong and motivated, I have no doubt he'll move on to trying to subsume somewhere else, either in Ukraine or elsewhere, just as a subsequent campaign and not a concurrent one.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Fevanhill/status/1495873540578594818

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fevanhill%2Fstatus%2F1495873540578594818&widget=Tweet

I've been sympathetic-ish to the "the US isn't necessarily that much better in the grand scheme of things" position in the past, NOVA Green, but now--as in both today and the current geopolitical lay of the land in general--is really not the time any more.