Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/howardfineman/status/1495563857280081920

[philly09]

Macron Proposed Putin-Biden Summit, Accepted by Both Sides: AFP

https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1495564034619416584

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1495574210185515009?s=20&t=527YmdUSW...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1495574210185515009?s=20&t=527YmdUSW...

"A verbal agreement isn't worth the paper it's written on."--Sam Goldwyn

[Torrain]

Macron Proposed Putin-Biden Summit, Accepted by Both Sides: AFP

Macron’s really been going for it.

He’s either a powerhouse of diplomacy, or a useful idiot for Putin - whose fallen into an ego trap, and the situation is so muddy I have no idea which.

With Russia you always have to be wary that it’s the latter, but boy, if he has found a way to keep Russia tanks out of Ukraine, even for one week more, he’s doing materially good work.

Either way, he’s gone up a bit in my estimations this week.

[StateBoiler]

Ukraine is a lost cause or more precisely, we can't help a bunch of idiotic, woe-be-me, over-inflated ego, dumb as rocks, bent-over Putin please  me, ************s that there are. Zelensky this weekend pretty well pissed of NATO with his grandstanding and gave Putin his red line.

Ukraine is the shield against the toughest army on earth, having held back the Russians for over 5 years. If that were the case, how the hell is Russia capable of marching to Kiev in 72 hours? Why are you begging for NATO help now? Why are you not mobilized? Yes, NATO, please send us weapons? Where are your crews? What happened to the instructors that we trained? Why aren't they manning your schools to teach your army how to use our stuff? The one SOF battalion that met NATO standards is assigned to EUROCORPS, not Kiev. You pissed away our help for 6 years and it's our fault you can't defend yourselves?

And what the hell is wrong with your stuff? Your stuff killed Israeli tanks. They can handle T-72s.

Sanction NORD STREAM 2 now (so the Russians won't have a choice but to pay us to transport gas to Europe).

Zelensky want a timeline and roadmap to joining NATO (never mind Kiev already got all the knowledge and the criteria since the late 1990s and done squat all to meet them). Never mind that this is Putin's casus belli. Zelensky is willing to discuss a ceasefire, never mind the LNR and DNR mobilized. We've been screaming for months to get ready and this is the best you can do? If you poke the bear (asking for NATO membership timeline), don't lay down with your throat to the freaking sky (asking for a ceasefire with Putin).

[Splash]

Lavrov and Blinken were already scheduled to talk on Thursday, so they're just adding the possibility of a Biden-Putin summit to the agenda. At the moment, this isn't really a game-changer unless/until we see some proof that Russian units are pulling back from their final staging areas*

*Satellite imagery from the past 24-48 hours have pointed towards Russian units decamping from their temporary forward operating bases, with many battalions now spread through fields, farms, and forests not far from the Ukrainian border. I am not a military logistics expert, but I don't know how long mechanized infantry and other equipment can be left in such relatively unsupported conditions before it starts to impact force effectiveness, morale, etc.  

[Crumpets]

Lavrov and Blinken were already scheduled to talk on Thursday, so they're just adding the possibility of a Biden-Putin summit to the agenda. At the moment, this isn't really a game-changer unless/until we see some proof that Russian units are pulling back from their final staging areas*

*Satellite imagery from the past 24-48 hours have pointed towards Russian units decamping from their temporary forward operating bases, with many battalions now spread through fields, farms, and forests not far from the Ukrainian border. I am not a military logistics expert, but I don't know how long mechanized infantry and other equipment can be left in such relatively unsupported conditions before it starts to impact force effectiveness, morale, etc.  

One thing I'm kind of curious about and haven't seen covered is that there's a "radiological reserve" or something like that on the Belarusian side of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. And while I doubt Putin has any qualms about keeping Russian forces stationed there (or near there) as long as he wants, I kind of wonder if there are any morale, logistical, or even health issues that go with being stationed in an area that's so notoriously unhealthy to be in for long periods of time.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

What are the odds that, due to the terms of the (hypothetical) summit, we see Return of the Little Green Men?

Putin will claim that he (aka Russia) absolutely has not invaded Ukraine. If there's been any armed forces on territory Ukraine claims, they're certainly not from the Russian military, just independent-minded folks  who happen to have Russian military hardware. Probably freedom-loving Ukrainians with Ukrainian hardware, actually.  Putin has already launched an investigation into the matter, and he'll be glad to publicly share the results in six months once the investigation is completed. Surely Biden and the West aren't a bunch of liars who are going to cancel a summit just because some people who have no connection to Russia at all are fighting Nazis in Ukraine?

[Splash]

Lavrov and Blinken were already scheduled to talk on Thursday, so they're just adding the possibility of a Biden-Putin summit to the agenda. At the moment, this isn't really a game-changer unless/until we see some proof that Russian units are pulling back from their final staging areas*

*Satellite imagery from the past 24-48 hours have pointed towards Russian units decamping from their temporary forward operating bases, with many battalions now spread through fields, farms, and forests not far from the Ukrainian border. I am not a military logistics expert, but I don't know how long mechanized infantry and other equipment can be left in such relatively unsupported conditions before it starts to impact force effectiveness, morale, etc.  

One thing I'm kind of curious about and haven't seen covered is that there's a "radiological reserve" or something like that on the Belarusian side of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. And while I doubt Putin has any qualms about keeping Russian forces stationed there (or near there) as long as he wants, I kind of wonder if there are any morale, logistical, or even health issues that go with being stationed in an area that's so notoriously unhealthy to be in for long periods of time.

As someone who was on the Ukrainian side of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in late 2019, I can personally say that there is little to no usable infrastructure left in the region. I think boredom, in addition to the lack of any supporting facilities for rest and relaxation, would be the main detriment to any medium-term deployment there. That feeling of isolation could certainly have a negative impact over time.

Unless stationed there for more than a couple months, I don't think the risk of radiation poisoning is a substantial factor except for some so-called "hot spots" which are easy enough to call out if you have a Geiger counter. Ukraine has always staffed checkpoints with the zone, but I believe they cycle their people in and out after a certain amount of time deployed there.   

Going through the exclusion zone would probably be the fastest way for Russian troops to get to Kyiv though, so it's worth keeping an eye on. 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1495556662022844420


Haha, yeah 

And now we'll likely get a summit. Helsinki? Yalta?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Macron Proposed Putin-Biden Summit, Accepted by Both Sides: AFP

Macron’s really been going for it.

He’s either a powerhouse of diplomacy, or a useful idiot for Putin - whose fallen into an ego trap, and the situation is so muddy I have no idea which.

With Russia you always have to be wary that it’s the latter, but boy, if he has found a way to keep Russia tanks out of Ukraine, even for one week more, he’s doing materially good work.

Either way, he’s gone up a bit in my estimations this week.

If Macron is, indeed, just a useful idiot for Putin, and if Biden doesn't understand that, doesn't it make Biden Putin's useful idiot, too?

With Russia you always have to be wary that it’s the latter, but boy, if he has found a way to keep Russia tanks out of Ukraine, even for one week more, he’s doing materially good work.

Hasn't it been pretty clear for now, that Putin doesn't have a hurry? If he wanted to invade no matter what, he'd already done it. It's pretty clear imo, that he still thinks, he might get some concessions either out of Ukraine or West.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1495556662022844420

It is not a  terrible strategy if USA's plan is one of delay.  Namely if the Russian invasion can be delayed until March then the coming of rasputitsa would mean that it would be May at the earliest until Russian can invade again.  On the flip side delay tends to work against Ukraine as the longer this status quo lasts the worst its economic crisis gets worse.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1495556662022844420

It is not a  terrible strategy if USA's plan is one of delay.  Namely if the Russian invasion can be delayed until March then the coming of rasputitsa would mean that it would be May at the earliest until Russian can invade again.  On the flip side delay tends to work against Ukraine as the longer this status quo lasts the worst its economic crisis gets worse.

Well, I (and many others) just really doubt that "exposing" true date would actually prevent Putin from invading.


Moreover, the "rasputitsa" has already started like 1-3 weeks ago? https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Kyiv+Kiev+Ukraine?canonicalCityId=0b66fcc8c4490e8b96bcf6af087a80df429e7ce442645cf1a27546703dbd551a

and I doubt it really mattered in first place to be honest.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-joe-biden-moscow-kyiv-environment-and-nature-3aa7f3a45ceb57ba9ef1faa1c5f17ed8
In Russia’s Ukraine plans, how much does the mud matter?

And it’s yet another reason why any Russian decision to invade Ukraine is likely to depend very little upon fears that a spring thaw will hinder tanks from crossing boggy ground. Russia’s military has, in addition to tanks and other armored vehicles that are well equipped for mud, a range of fighter jets and missiles that are the hallmarks of any modern military.

U.S. President Joe Biden has said that Russia is essentially in position for an invasion of Ukraine “assuming that the ground is frozen above Kyiv,” the Ukrainian capital that is only 75 kilometers (47 miles) from the border of Belarus, a key Russian ally. It’s not the first time an American official has invoked Russia’s need for frozen ground to stage an invasion.

But analysts trying to figure out how Russia could invade say any assault would start with air and missile strikes, likely targeting Ukrainian military sites.

“If (Russian President Vladimir) Putin agrees to an invasion, then it won’t be tanks or ships in the vanguard, but rather aircraft and missile forces. The first targets for them will be air defense systems and the missile defense force, command posts, critical infrastructure, after which the advantage of Russian forces in the air and upper hand on land and sea are guaranteed,” said Mykola Sunhurovskyi, a military analyst at the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center think tank.

And if there is a KVN-battle (so KVN is not about that), we'll send Lavrov.

The Kremlin, which has denied having any Ukraine invasion plans, has scoffed at an argument that it wants to see the ground frozen to launch an attack on Ukraine. Ukrainian officials agree that frozen ground or mud isn’t an issue.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pointed at the argument to taunt British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss following their icy talks in Moscow on Thursday.

“They say that Russia is waiting for the ground to freeze like a stone so that tanks could easily roll into Ukrainian territory,” Lavrov told reporters. “The ground was like that with our British colleagues, with numerous facts we cited bouncing off them.”

[CumbrianLefty]

What are the chances this escalates into something worse? As in WW3? Or nukes being launched.

Reading the thread helps you know, this question has already been answered more than once.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

We're now seeing satellite images and videos of tanks with external fuel tanks attached and guns mounted moving off-road and deployed along tree lines.

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1495513858273853444

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1495471949673291776

I'm more interested in what Putin will say at his national security council meeting today, rather than some proposed summit that both sides say is only hypothetical at this point. That will give us a better idea if diplomacy is going to happen.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1495556662022844420

It is not a  terrible strategy if USA's plan is one of delay.  Namely if the Russian invasion can be delayed until March then the coming of rasputitsa would mean that it would be May at the earliest until Russian can invade again.  On the flip side delay tends to work against Ukraine as the longer this status quo lasts the worst its economic crisis gets worse.

Well, I (and many others) just really doubt that "exposing" true date would actually prevent Putin from invading.

I agree most likely it will not work from a prevention point of view.  It also has a great risk of provoking Russia into invading if it was 50/50 since it will look weak in the eyes of the Russian population if it did not.  Russia's counter to this risk, of course, is to troll the USA "warnings" but that does box them in terms of options for future action.  For Russia to invade now "something significant" will have to take place.  That something of course could be a Russian "false flag" operation OR a Ukraine "false flag" operation that is meant to provoke the sanctions they have been lobbying for.  Time is not on Ukraine's side so Ukraine does need to provoke sanctions on Russia soon to equalize the economy on both sides.

[jaichind]

US equity futures which had surged on French news of a possible Biden-Putin summit last night has now fallen back down to levels before that news broke.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I'm not a military expert either, but it's what the military experts I've been reading have said and it makes intuitive sense: soldiers camping out on frozen fields away from their bases for weeks or months on end will mean lower morale, more disruption to training and greater strain on maintaining equipment. Of course it's not physically impossible for Russia to keep troops forward deployed in this state for a long time, but not using them when their combat effectiveness is declining it would be a signal to other countries that Russia didn't decide to attack when it was optimal, the threat of force is becoming less credible, and so they will be less likely to give concessions.

I think an optimal strategy of tension would have been a lower number of troops mostly in their permanent bases with the main threatening movement being that of equipment with skeleton crews (so what we saw in late Jan or with the Zapad 2021 exercise last year). That I think would be enough of a coercive threat to Ukraine and more sustainable over a period of months, and you could ratchet it quickly by moving in personnel if needed. Rn we're so far past that point.

Anyway as you know I have problems with Russia's negotiating strategy more broadly if it really is trying to win concessions. I don't think the "trying to extract diplomatic wins" interpretation of e.g. the draft treaty proposals or Putin's discussions with Macron makes any sense at all.

Well, I believe a large share (40-60 thousands) are indeed troops in or near their permanent bases.

The build-up took 3 months, why can't Russia wait another couple of months. They can rotate troops. They can lower amount to raise again next fall for example. All of it would (at least in theory) cause a permanent exodus of businesses and brain drain.

Russia can add cyber attacks, which arguably will cause much softer sanctions.
Russia can recognize Donbas independent.
Russia can officially annex Donbas.


I mean, there are arguably a lot of bad, yet very *plausible* scenarios that potentially can force them into giving concessions. Not necessary will it work, but pretending there are no other [more] realistic scenarios rather then "invasion in next couple of day or bust" is well just pretending.


Also, giving that summit happens (we'll probably find it out soon enough?), it means at least a week with no war.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

US equity futures which had surged on French news of a possible Biden-Putin summit last night has now fallen back down to levels before that news broke.

Probably, because :

A Biden administration official told the Financial Times the format and timing of a possible Biden-Putin summit remained “to be determined” and it was “all completely notional”. 

The Kremlin on Monday then said there were “no concrete plans” for such a meeting, but did not rule out the option.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1494999291802312708

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1494999291802312708

This is why Russia is making the crisis about NATO expansion and not Ukraine.  It will be easier for Russia to get PRC support if the crisis is about NATO expansion.  The word "separatists" is a big no-no for PRC.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Not good

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1495742811748065285

[StateBoiler]

I honestly don't understand the Ukrainian strategy at all: they're not well-prepared for a war they have a pretty good idea is coming and has been telegraphed for 3 months, they seem to want this war for their nation's defense to be fought by other state's militaries, been given aid by other countries for their own troops to use but been told repeatedly other country's troops will not enter Ukraine to fight the Russians for them, yet want harsh punitive measures on Russia now that would just help the war that has a marginal chance of not occurring to even more certainly take place since the Russians would have less to lose. This is suicide.

The best thing I can come up with is Zelensky and his aids have written off eastern Ukraine, written off Crimea (I don't know if they've written off Kiev or not, we may see the capital move west), they know they'll lose a war, but they won't give up anything diplomatically to serve the broader longer-term purpose of NATO membership/EU membership for whatever Ukrainian remnant exists, and after the war use the victim card to say "NATO and Europe did not help us to the degree necessary and thousands of Ukrainians died because of your inaction" to shame their way into these alliances. Is that playing games with the lives of your citizens? Yes. I'm fully expecting Zelensky to blame the U.S. if war occurs and Ukraine loses, blaming America for all your country's problems is a global sport after all and plays well at home.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1495725849890463744
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1495726123686191106
https://twitter.com/C_Barraud/status/1495743787489972228
🥴