Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Badger]

Once again Russia has escalated the war they illegally started, and done so by inflicting massive damage on civilians.  But when Ukraine defends himself, a bunch of idiots will say that Ukraine is the warmongering country keeping the war going.  And when Putin once again saber-rattles with nuclear weapons, they'll say it's America and Ukraine's fault for not surrendering (a.k.a. "accepting Putin's peace terms").

Well, when you're going for the high road deploying suicide bombers isn't probably the brightest idea to court public opinion.

The Ukrainians don't need to court public opinion because every thinking person is already on their side.

Maybe in the latte-sipping west. But don't forget that vast majority of the third world still supports Russia or has a neutral stance, unfortunately.

Never been pro-Russia on this, just call out what I see.

Lying simp.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1579861040384573441

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1579820268515917825?t=yfx1B-fFCLfZOFzVSZ6y...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The power plants were one thing, but if the missiles were genuinely aimed at targets like the crossroads, they were a waste. Here's an illustration as to why:

https://twitter.com/NikaMelkozerova/status/1579936837103407105
Much harder to do this for a wrecked fighter jet in an airbase hit by a missile. To a lesser but still significant extent, bridge repairs are also trickier. This is to say nothing of officers killed at a command post.

Edit: of course, this assumes that the missiles are to be used for military purposes rather than for domestic political PR. If they are increasingly relegated to that role (which seems likely), it's arguably good news for Ukraine.

[Torie]

I don't agree with SirWoodbury's takes on this, but I'm giving him sympathy recommends anyway. Y'all can get very mindless about him. That is all.

Chamberlain says what

I see you are evoking the rather black-and-white view of Chamberlain vs Churchill that was in vogue in the decades after World War II but fails to do the former man justice. Thanks for enlivening my afternoon. Shalom.

Imagine distinguishing the parties in this case from WWII because Russia hasn't literally reopened Buchenwald.

I was neither agreeing nor disagreeing with Hitler-Putin and/or Nazi Germany/2022 Russia comparisons in that post. It would be a waste of time to dissect them in a thorough manner. I was only addressing the question of Chamberlain and his legacy. This pop-culture image of the man does a level of a disservice to him.

That being said, I do firmly disagree, and have always disagreed, with the idea Hitler-Putin and Russia-Nazi Germany are synonymous in a general sense. Putin is a Tsarist, not a Slav-coated Nazi. Late-stage Putin is more comparable to Saddam than Hitler anyway, complete with delusions of glory and a dangerous-man image/persona, and increasingly obsessed with and strongly opposed to American hegemony.

"Late-stage Putin is more comparable to Saddam than Hitler anyway, complete with delusions of glory and a dangerous-man image/persona, and increasingly obsessed with and strongly opposed to American hegemony."

And thus the war criminal deserves a good killing. Period. Our finance savvy posters might posit, assuming human life has no value other than the impact on the labor market, as to what it costs. I pulled the number of at about 10 Billion per day,  at least. What do the number crunchers' think? Number crunchers have their limitations.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't agree with SirWoodbury's takes on this, but I'm giving him sympathy recommends anyway. Y'all can get very mindless about him. That is all.

Chamberlain says what

I see you are evoking the rather black-and-white view of Chamberlain vs Churchill that was in vogue in the decades after World War II but fails to do the former man justice. Thanks for enlivening my afternoon. Shalom.

Imagine distinguishing the parties in this case from WWII because Russia hasn't literally reopened Buchenwald.

I was neither agreeing nor disagreeing with Hitler-Putin and/or Nazi Germany/2022 Russia comparisons in that post. It would be a waste of time to dissect them in a thorough manner. I was only addressing the question of Chamberlain and his legacy. This pop-culture image of the man does a level of a disservice to him.

That being said, I do firmly disagree, and have always disagreed, with the idea Hitler-Putin and Russia-Nazi Germany are synonymous in a general sense. Putin is a Tsarist, not a Slav-coated Nazi. Late-stage Putin is more comparable to Saddam than Hitler anyway, complete with delusions of glory and a dangerous-man image/persona, and increasingly obsessed with and strongly opposed to American hegemony.

"Late-stage Putin is more comparable to Saddam than Hitler anyway, complete with delusions of glory and a dangerous-man image/persona, and increasingly obsessed with and strongly opposed to American hegemony."

And thus the war criminal deserves a good killing. Period. Our finance savvy posters might posit, assuming human life has no value other than the impact on the labor market, as to what it costs. I pulled the number of at about 10 Billion per day,  at least. What do the number crunchers' think? Number crunchers have their limitations.

The analogy has its limits. The way we handled  Saddam occurred in a context where he did not have nukes and was not sitting an a truluy astronomical amount of hydrocarbons. Isolating Putin out of being able to sell his crude oil and gas is a pipe-dream and the man will always have his strong supporters in the Third World. Meanwhile, hardly anybody cared for Saddam Hussein.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/breaknewsi/status/1579489093255598082?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

Oh man.

I hope she made it.

[NOVA Green]

On the topic of providing more and better air defense systems to Ukraine:

Longer article but much more info in the link at the bottom.

NATO’s top official on Tuesday called on allies to step up arms supplies to the Ukrainians, especially sophisticated air-defense systems, a day after Russia rained rocket fire on 19 cities across Ukraine in a marked escalation of its assault on civilians.

Mr. Stoltenberg’s comments came as Western leaders, outraged by the escalation of Russian hostilities in Ukraine, held a virtual emergency meeting of the Group of 7 industrialized nations. They pledged “undeterred and steadfast” financial and military support for Ukraine. The White House also said it would expedite delivery of an advanced air-defense system.

Military experts say the Ukrainians’ rate of shooting down missiles is good, especially given the age and sparsity of Ukraine’s equipment. They also said that whatever shortcomings in Kyiv’s arsenal were exposed by the Russian barrage over the past few days, it also raised questions about Moscow’s arsenal.

Ukraine has an extensive network of local air defenses that has been largely effective at knocking down Russian missiles and preventing the Russian air force from gaining dominance over Ukrainian skies. But Ukraine’s air defense relies mainly on older, Soviet model S-300 systems, and they cannot stop all incoming Russian attacks.

A White House spokesman said on Tuesday that the administration was working to deliver to Ukraine two of the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, known as NASAMs. The systems would provide short- to medium-range coverage over 30 to 50 kilometers (about 18 to 30 miles).

Representative Elissa B. Slotkin, a Michigan Democrat and former C.I.A. analyst, said that in addition to the NASAM systems, the Pentagon should also consider sending to Ukraine advanced Patriot antimissile systems and a specific weapons system for countering rockets, artillery and mortars that is known as C-RAM.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/11/world/europe/ukraine-g7-air-defense.html

[NOVA Green]

On the topic of hunting for armaments for Ukraine, especially Soviet style hardware...

From Cyprus with Love???

But for all of the assurances, there remains a problem. Kyiv also needs more of the Russian-style weapons that the Ukrainian military is trained to use, and the available global supply of them is running low.

To find those weapons, the United States and other allies have been scouring the globe, looking for willing suppliers in a hunt that has revealed both the promise and pitfalls of unlocking stockpiles of Russian-standard and Soviet-style weapons for use by Ukraine.

Others like Cambodia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Mexico, Colombia and Peru have received a recent visit from Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a painstaking, behind-the-scenes diplomatic campaign to countries that have demonstrated support for Ukraine but are still reluctant to supply lethal aid.

And then there is Cyprus. It has presented a special window on the difficulties of keeping up with the urgent demand for arms that Ukraine’s troops are burning through faster than can be supplied as they claw back large swaths of territory and push the Russians to retreat.

Until this month, Cyprus had been under a U.S. arms embargo for 35 years, imposed to help tamp down tensions after a conflict left the island bitterly divided between a government backed by Greece and a portion still controlled by Turkey — both NATO members.

In that time, Cyprus turned to the Soviet Union and then Russia for weapons and military equipment. Today its stockpile of at least 10 Tor and Buk missile systems that can down Russian aircraft, drones and cruise missiles could provide a bonanza for an embattled Ukrainian army.

But the Cypriot government has made clear it wants new and better replacements, something that could antagonize Turkey and reignite an arms race in the still unresolved conflict. Even so, on Oct. 1, the Biden administration formally lifted the embargo, allowing Cyprus to buy American weapons.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/11/world/europe/ukraine-cyprus-arms-race.html

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1579861040384573441

Good news... it's amazing how sometimes things get "fast-tracked" that otherwise in theory might have taken several months for delivery.

An IRIS-T air-defense system from Germany and four additional HIMARS systems from the United States have arrived in Ukraine, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov wrote on Twitter on Tuesday.

“A new era of air defence has begun” in Ukraine, he said.

The announcement came as Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, called for expedited and more air-defense systems in the wake of Russia’s string of strikes on Monday.

The German Defense Ministry said Monday that the first of four IRIS-T air-defense systems — modern defense systems Germany promised in June — would arrive in Ukraine in the “next few days.” But the IRIS-T system appeared to have arrived sooner that anticipated.

Olaf Scholz has said the defense system can protect “an entire major city from Russian air attacks,” DW reported.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/11/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/#link-JPPMNYBXBVBCJH34YX37O6GBY4

[NOVA Green]

As I continue to work through my post-work news updates.... here's another on Ukrainian Air Defense capabilities, this time from the WSJ...

Much more at the link below.

The barrage of missiles Russia unleashed on Ukrainian cities this week illustrates Kyiv’s limited ability to defend its population centers against missile attacks, according to Western military experts.

Ukraine’s vulnerability, in part, stems from the technological challenge any nation would face in protecting cities from attacks by salvos of cruise missiles, which hug the earth and can overwhelm limited air defenses. But it also reflects the delays in acquiring sophisticated air defenses from the West.

The Pentagon has said the U.S. is sending two mobile air-defense systems known as Nasams to Ukraine within the next two months. Another six Nasams systems, which are deemed to be effective against cruise missiles, have been earmarked for Ukraine, but Pentagon and industry officials said it could take around 18 months or more to finish and deliver them.

Washington doesn’t plan to send Patriot surface-to-air missile systems, which the U.S. and its allies use to defend air bases and other key installations. Patriots are in short supply, though one U.S. system is being temporarily employed in Slovakia to backfill a Russian-made S-300 system sent to Ukraine.

While Ukraine’s limited air defenses have been effective against Russia’s warplanes and helicopters, Russian cruise and ballistic missiles present a far greater challenge, especially when fired at Ukraine’s electrical grid and other infrastructure in large populated areas, according to Philip Breedlove, a former North Atlantic Treaty Organization commander and retired Air Force general.

Ukraine’s current air-defense systems “have had a great impact” on attacks from Russian helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft, Gen. Breedlove said. “But the force is not equipped well for ballistic or cruise-missile defense.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-missile-strikes-highlight-ukraines-limited-air-defenses-11665480602

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1579820268515917825?t=yfx1B-fFCLfZOFzVSZ6y...

OMG, that is halarious.
When there are pictures, please post them.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1579820268515917825?t=yfx1B-fFCLfZOFzVSZ6y...

OMG, that is halarious.
When there are pictures, please post them.

[NOVA Green]

Russian Rotary Units relocating further East after recent Ukrainian battlefield gains...

https://twitter.com/thewarzonewire/status/1579876642964787200?s=20&t=v1K_Xys...

[Storr]

Neat for nerds like myself, but I doubt it will be as neat for the mobiks that have to use these in battle:

https://twitter.com/CanadianEthan/status/1579994479255519233?s=20&t=jsKtBF8f...


Edit: a video of another piece Soivet era equipment being used:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1579972596200017921?s=20&t=jsKtBF8fJga4Fw...

[Storr]

Interesting comment from Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine Aleksey Arestovych, likening the Russian military's situation on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro/Dnieper River to the German 6th Army's situation at Stalingrad during WWII.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1579954255296835584?s=20&t=jsKtBF8f...

[OSR stands with Israel]

Could Ukraine realistically take back Crimea

[Omega21]

Could Ukraine realistically take back Crimea

Realistic, as in militarily realistic?

Maybe, though fairly difficult.

Realistic, as in Putin won't use tactical nukes?

Very unlikely. Losing Crimea would guarantee the end of Putin's regime. Losing Kherson, Kharkov oblast etc. does not.

Coupled with the fact that most Crimean residents (even pre-2014) are ethnically Russian, and in favor of being part of the RF ever since Euromaidan, I don't see how it would be worth it.

Some Americans here mentioning they are just pro-RU Ukrainian separatists makes no sense if one is familiar with how ethnic identities work in some parts of the World. A Russian born in Ukraine is Russian. A Croat born in Bosnia is still Croat. Nationality and ethnicity are different in these parts compared to the US.

[Woody]

Bakhmut:

https://twitter.com/marcushaukka/status/1580115223557439488

[Woody]

Russia has now has the means to properly supply it's units with fuel, with mobilization coming up.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1580131420537618432

Russia has been increasing fuel deliveries to its military units near and inside Ukraine, with shipments reaching the highest since the invasion as the Kremlin mobilizes its forces against Kyiv’s counteroffensive.

Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel deliveries to the Russian Defense Ministry’s units in six regions bordering Ukraine as well as the annexed Donetsk and Luhansk regions rose to almost 220,000 tons in September, according to Bloomberg calculations based on an analysis of railway data. That’s about four times the volume of a year earlier and exceeds shipments in March, the first full month after the invasion.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1580105995665145856
Russia lost more men in less than a year then we did in our near decade in Nam

[CumbrianLefty]

Woodbury says its all going swimmingly for them, though - who to believe?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Russia has now has the means to properly supply it's units with fuel, with mobilization coming up.

https://twitter.com/business/status/1580131420537618432

Russia has been increasing fuel deliveries to its military units near and inside Ukraine, with shipments reaching the highest since the invasion as the Kremlin mobilizes its forces against Kyiv’s counteroffensive.

Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel deliveries to the Russian Defense Ministry’s units in six regions bordering Ukraine as well as the annexed Donetsk and Luhansk regions rose to almost 220,000 tons in September, according to Bloomberg calculations based on an analysis of railway data. That’s about four times the volume of a year earlier and exceeds shipments in March, the first full month after the invasion.

The Endsieg is finally near, and Putin didn't even need to resort to Wunderwaffen.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1580105995665145856
Russia lost more men in less than a year then we did in our near decade in Nam

Although Russia for sure lost an insane amount of troops, I would still take Ukrainian figures with a grain of salt (the Russians don't even update their numbers anymore in public, which tells you how well this "special operation" is going). I'd be more inclined to believe American and British Intel publications. I read estimations from Western sources that Russia lost about 75k in personell, both wounded and killed. How many of them were actually killed in action is hard to estimate.

If the war goes on for another few months, especially with more untrained recruitment forces, actual casualties (deaths) surpassing the 58k we lost in 'Nam is highly plausible.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Slightly odd Russian preparations for the long war:

https://twitter.com/DrazaM33/status/1580177935612268544
Allegedly a new type of upgrade (plausible) for 800 (less plausible) T-62s (!), to be delivered over 3 years.