Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"From Moscow with Love" has a whole new meaning to many Ukrainians now.

Like I said, if they are doing this to them now, imagine what they will do to them when they beat them.

Depends on what you mean by "what they will do". Putin wants a certain level of control, and everything else is secondary. But this, again, assumes you're talking about Russia winning. Right now Ukraine's in a much better shape than it was in February. I think Ukraine is likelier to win at this rate.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What a waste of missiles. They could have aimed for the <10 rail bridges over the Dnieper, for instance, but high command is full of manchildren.

This seems to be for domestic reasons. Putin's concerned with looking weak in the eyes of anti-Ukraine hawks within Russia.

Most likely, but if so - it is either a short-term measure in a long war or an unspoken concession that Russia’s missiles can’t change the course of the military campaign. The Kerch Bridge explosion will probably not be the last embarrassment Russia faces. If the military campaign must continue, it’s better to accept that embarrassment happened and use missiles to try to prevent future embarrassments and military defeats. This allows them to be force multipliers (by, e.g., destroying planes in airbases) rather than fruitless terror attacks only good for TV.

Russia spends a lot on missiles but seems intent on using them as ghoulish PR tools rather than to win wars.

[Person Man]

"From Moscow with Love" has a whole new meaning to many Ukrainians now.

Like I said, if they are doing this to them now, imagine what they will do to them when they beat them.

Depends on what you mean by "what they will do". Putin wants a certain level of control, and everything else is secondary. But this, again, assumes you're talking about Russia winning. Right now Ukraine's in a much better shape than it was in February. I think Ukraine is likelier to win at this rate.

Like I said, it should show Ukrainians what’s in store for them if they lose.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"From Moscow with Love" has a whole new meaning to many Ukrainians now.

Like I said, if they are doing this to them now, imagine what they will do to them when they beat them.

Depends on what you mean by "what they will do". Putin wants a certain level of control, and everything else is secondary. But this, again, assumes you're talking about Russia winning. Right now Ukraine's in a much better shape than it was in February. I think Ukraine is likelier to win at this rate.

Like I said, it should show Ukrainians what’s in store for them if they lose.

This does not necessarily follow. What politicians do to gain power is often different from what they do to hold it. Countless men have seized power through brute force and then lost it. It's hard to tell with much certainty what would happen to a defeated Ukraine; there are too many scenarios and too many uncertain variables.
EDIT: I would note that the Putinesque "security for the motherland" playbook has already played out in full in Chechnya.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/tvtoront/status/1579399338518007808

[Lord Halifax]

Despite Russia's retaliatory strikes no escalation from SMO to ATO.

I suspect the reason is because of

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/us-news/will-joe-biden-meet-vladimir-putin-at-g20-summit-us-president-does-not-rule-it-out-articleshow.html

"Will Joe Biden Meet Vladimir Putin At G20 Summit? US President Does Not Rule It Out"

Where Putin will see what he can get out of potential 1-on-1 talks with Biden at the G20 and if it is not enough then go for a legal escalation to ATO.

what is ATO?

[CumbrianLefty]

"From Moscow with Love" has a whole new meaning to many Ukrainians now.

Like I said, if they are doing this to them now, imagine what they will do to them when they beat them.

Depends on what you mean by "what they will do". Putin wants a certain level of control, and everything else is secondary. But this, again, assumes you're talking about Russia winning. Right now Ukraine's in a much better shape than it was in February. I think Ukraine is likelier to win at this rate.

Like I said, it should show Ukrainians what’s in store for them if they lose.

This does not necessarily follow. What politicians do to gain power is often different from what they do to hold it. Countless men have seized power through brute force and then lost it. It's hard to tell with much certainty what would happen to a defeated Ukraine; there are too many scenarios and too many uncertain variables.
EDIT: I would note that the Putinesque "security for the motherland" playbook has already played out in full in Chechnya.

We know that those currently ruling Russia believe Ukraine should not exist and Ukrainians are not a "real" people. Based on that, its hard to believe they will be benevolent should they "win" this war.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1579395666463584257?cxt=HHwWgsDTtbP_ke...
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1579372744957104130
Russia's actions have reduced Ukrainian morale and weakened the scope of the pro-Ukraine coalition to lows of weakness never seen before!

[jaichind]

Despite Russia's retaliatory strikes no escalation from SMO to ATO.

I suspect the reason is because of

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/us-news/will-joe-biden-meet-vladimir-putin-at-g20-summit-us-president-does-not-rule-it-out-articleshow.html

"Will Joe Biden Meet Vladimir Putin At G20 Summit? US President Does Not Rule It Out"

Where Putin will see what he can get out of potential 1-on-1 talks with Biden at the G20 and if it is not enough then go for a legal escalation to ATO.

what is ATO?

Anti-Terrorist Operation.  In theory, under SMO the Russian armed forces should not target civilian infrastructure (comm networks, power stations, etc) unless it is being used by the Ukrainian military.  Under ATO the military doctrine changes to allow Russian forces to attack that location even if they are used purely for civilian purposes. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"From Moscow with Love" has a whole new meaning to many Ukrainians now.

Like I said, if they are doing this to them now, imagine what they will do to them when they beat them.

Depends on what you mean by "what they will do". Putin wants a certain level of control, and everything else is secondary. But this, again, assumes you're talking about Russia winning. Right now Ukraine's in a much better shape than it was in February. I think Ukraine is likelier to win at this rate.

Like I said, it should show Ukrainians what’s in store for them if they lose.

This does not necessarily follow. What politicians do to gain power is often different from what they do to hold it. Countless men have seized power through brute force and then lost it. It's hard to tell with much certainty what would happen to a defeated Ukraine; there are too many scenarios and too many uncertain variables.
EDIT: I would note that the Putinesque "security for the motherland" playbook has already played out in full in Chechnya.

We know that those currently ruling Russia believe Ukraine should not exist and Ukrainians are not a "real" people. Based on that, its hard to believe they will be benevolent should they "win" this war.

I was not implying that Ukraine ends up like Chechnya. I was just saying there's a million iterations of Ukrainian defeat scenarios and a lot of possible futures for it. From a purely analytical point of view, it's imprudent to be 100% certain of anything major in the long-term given what is up in the air. Russia does not have to win a total victory to gain on net in the short-term. Nonetheless, the idea that Ukraine itself is on the line is good for morale and if I was Zelensky I would not start talking up the country's prospects in the case of a Russian victory.

[jaichind]

"eye for eye tooth for tooth" has been amended to "bridge for bridge"?

BTW, this war taught us that bridges are very hard to take down and keep down.  I am sure this bridge will be repaired fairly quickly.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1579368581862940672

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

"eye for eye tooth for tooth" has been amended to "bridge for bridge"?

BTW, this war taught us that bridges are very hard to take down and keep down.  I am sure this bridge will be repaired fairly quickly.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1579368581862940672

The missile didn’t hit the bridge itself, which is just a fancy footbridge within a city. If they wanted to pull a “bridge for a bridge” stunt, Ukraine controls only six rail bridges over the Dnieper, each of which is presumably important for civilian and military logistics. Striking those would have made more sense.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"eye for eye tooth for tooth" has been amended to "bridge for bridge"?

BTW, this war taught us that bridges are very hard to take down and keep down.  I am sure this bridge will be repaired fairly quickly.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1579368581862940672

The missile didn’t hit the bridge itself, which is just a fancy footbridge within a city. If they wanted to pull a “bridge for a bridge” stunt, Ukraine controls only six rail bridges over the Dnieper, each of which is presumably important for civilian and military logistics. Striking those would have made more sense.

Ukrainian and Russian armed forces doctrine both emphasize artillery and elimination of enemy presence, and this is happening in a context where neither side is very strong in defenses against said missiles.
I'm inclined to think Putin is testing his boundaries. Ukraine would be well advised to consider fortifying its rail bridges right about now.
Welcome to Damascus-on-the-Dnieper!

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/belarus-russia-form-joint-military-group-lukashenko-says-2022-10-10/

"Belarus, Russia to form joint military group, Lukashenko says"

Lukashenko also claims that Ukraine is planning to attack Belorus

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

That video of the girl on a walk and just barely surviving a missile strike....man what the f-k

[CumbrianLefty]

Lukashenko also claims that Ukraine is planning to attack Belarus

He has said that at regular intervals since this war started.

[jaichind]

Russia's RTS is down 5% after the Kerch bridge attack over the weekend.  Clearly, this is fear over the likely escalation of the war.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Can’t help but notice certain posters who were so disgusted and outraged Ukraine would hit a bridge that has been used exclusively for military use for months not really bothered Russia deliberately attacked civilian infrastructure

[Logical]

It does sound ghoulish to say but it is better that Russia expends its limited supply of guided missiles on parks and tourist bridges rather than actual military targets on the front lines.

[Torie]

India, which has walked a middle path between Russia and Ukraine urging a negotiated end to the war, said it was “deeply concerned at the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, including targeting of infrastructure and deaths of civilians.” India’s foreign ministry called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities” and offered help to “support all such efforts aimed at de-escalation.”

China called for a de-escalation of the fighting in Ukraine, repeating its position that the sovereignty of all countries should be respected without criticizing Russia for invading its neighbor.


Guys, if you are serious, as opposed to just wasting bandwidth, you know what to do. Cut way back on your oil purchases from Putin to defund the terrorist organization.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/baronitaigas/status/1579407047430639617

[Person Man]

India, which has walked a middle path between Russia and Ukraine urging a negotiated end to the war, said it was “deeply concerned at the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, including targeting of infrastructure and deaths of civilians.” India’s foreign ministry called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities” and offered help to “support all such efforts aimed at de-escalation.”

China called for a de-escalation of the fighting in Ukraine, repeating its position that the sovereignty of all countries should be respected without criticizing Russia for invading its neighbor.


Guys, if you are serious, as opposed to just wasting bandwidth, you know what to do. Cut way back on your oil purchases from Putin to defund the terrorist organization.

I prefer the term that Ronald Reagan used and John Kerry uses.

[Torie]

Except it's not an empire anymore. It is more akin to a xenophobic racist tribe.

[Badger]

"From Moscow with Love" has a whole new meaning to many Ukrainians now.

Like I said, if they are doing this to them now, imagine what they will do to them when they beat them.

Depends on what you mean by "what they will do". Putin wants a certain level of control, and everything else is secondary. But this, again, assumes you're talking about Russia winning. Right now Ukraine's in a much better shape than it was in February. I think Ukraine is likelier to win at this rate.

Like I said, it should show Ukrainians what’s in store for them if they lose.

This does not necessarily follow. What politicians do to gain power is often different from what they do to hold it. Countless men have seized power through brute force and then lost it. It's hard to tell with much certainty what would happen to a defeated Ukraine; there are too many scenarios and too many uncertain variables.
EDIT: I would note that the Putinesque "security for the motherland" playbook has already played out in full in Chechnya.

We know that those currently ruling Russia believe Ukraine should not exist and Ukrainians are not a "real" people. Based on that, its hard to believe they will be benevolent should they "win" this war.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/baronitaigas/status/1579407047430639617

That's the same Twitter account that gives "assessments" like these though:


https://twitter.com/baronitaigas/status/1579391284296699904