Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Krago]

Is anyone else trying to access the Ontario Boundaries Commission virtual hearing?

[Krago]

The public hearings part of the federal redistribution process has finished (except for one last trip to Thunder Bay next week).  Here are a few thoughts.

Boundaries Commissions have two rules.

(1) You have to draw the boundaries somewhere; and
(2) You can draw the boundaries anywhere you want.

With regard to the first point, commissioners are often told that they 'must' delay the process for one month/six months/ten years for various reasons - municipal elections, census undercounts, unaccounted future growth, 'it ain't broke/nobody wants this now', etc.  They've got a job to do, rules to follow and a deadline to meet.

BUT as long they don't piss off any Acadians (those people litigate!) they can do whatever they want.  Commissioners don't have to worry about making people upset because the new boundaries are bound to make somebody upset.  And ten years from from now, those same people will declare that the boundaries are perfect and should never be changed.

I love making maps, but I don't have the patience to be a Commissioner.  Last night Terry Sheehan, the Conservative MP for Sault Ste Marie, made a presentation to the Ontario virtual hearing.  At one point he segued from a discussion of the sex lives of Northern Ontario dairy farmers to accusing the commission of using 'Soviet-style' calculations in their work.  Still he was far more entertaining than the lady from Northumberland County who droned on and on about the history of the county.  I went downstairs to make nachos, and when I came back she was still talking!

My favourite moments:

- the fellow who accused Justin Trudeau of personally drawing the boundaries in Northern Saskatchewan

 - the woman from Markham who claimed that changing the boundaries of Markham-Unionville would disrupt the efforts of the Tamil community to recover from the civil war in Sri Lanka

 - elected officials who claimed that adding a certain neighbourhood or township to a different riding would mean that they would be ignored by the new MP  (I wish a Commissioner had asked them which parts of their current riding/ward they ignore)

- the anti-PC (Penetanguishene--Couchiching) folks who felt that if 'Simcoe North' was good enough for Sir John A., it was good enough for them

- many, many people who felt that their city/county was indivisible, but if it needed more population then just grab it from a neighbouring city/county

[beesley]

My favourite moments:

- the fellow who accused Justin Trudeau of personally drawing the boundaries in Northern Saskatchewan

Oh wow, I want to know who this person is!

Thanks for your contributions of course - I've enjoyed watching your master plan update over the last year or two.

[lilTommy]

The public hearings part of the federal redistribution process has finished (except for one last trip to Thunder Bay next week).  Here are a few thoughts.

Boundaries Commissions have two rules.

(1) You have to draw the boundaries somewhere; and
(2) You can draw the boundaries anywhere you want.

With regard to the first point, commissioners are often told that they 'must' delay the process for one month/six months/ten years for various reasons - municipal elections, census undercounts, unaccounted future growth, 'it ain't broke/nobody wants this now', etc.  They've got a job to do, rules to follow and a deadline to meet.

BUT as long they don't piss off any Acadians (those people litigate!) they can do whatever they want.  Commissioners don't have to worry about making people upset because the new boundaries are bound to make somebody upset.  And ten years from from now, those same people will declare that the boundaries are perfect and should never be changed.

I love making maps, but I don't have the patience to be a Commissioner.  Last night Terry Sheehan, the Conservative MP for Sault Ste Marie, made a presentation to the Ontario virtual hearing.  At one point he segued from a discussion of the sex lives of Northern Ontario dairy farmers to accusing the commission of using 'Soviet-style' calculations in their work.  Still he was far more entertaining than the lady from Northumberland County who droned on and on about the history of the county.  I went downstairs to make nachos, and went I came back she was still talking!

My favourite moments:

- the fellow who accused Justin Trudeau of personally drawing the boundaries in Northern Saskatchewan

 - the woman from Markham who claimed that changing the boundaries of Markham-Unionville would disrupt the efforts of the Tamil community to recover from the civil war in Sri Lanka

 - elected officials who claimed that adding a certain neighbourhood or township to a different riding would mean that they would be ignored by the new MP  (I wish a Commissioner had asked them which parts of their current riding/ward they ignore)

- the anti-PC (Penetanguishene--Couchiching) folks who felt that if 'Simcoe North' was good enough for Sir John A., it was good enough for them

- many, many people who felt that their city/county was indivisible, but if it needed more population then just grab it from a neighbouring city/county

I wonder if anyone spoke out against the Scarborough changes? Last week there were at least two news stories that I saw about the anger over Scarborough losing it's 6th riding. I think Tory is opposed to it too, I just don't know if anyone made any statement at the hearings?

[DL]

Can someone refresh my memory about the extent to which the hearings in 2012-2013 led to any significant to the final maps compared to the preliminary maps? As I recall the final map of downtown Toronto was vastly different from the initial one.

[Krago]

Here was the Toronto initial proposal from the previous redistribution.

https://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/on/now/proposals/18-toronto.pdf

And here is the Toronto map from the final report.

https://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/on/now/reports/19Toronto.pdf

There were big changes in downtown Toronto, but not much in the inner suburbs.


As for Scarborough, I watched about a dozen presenters on the virtual hearings call for Scarborough to keep six ridings entirely east of Victoria Park Ave.  There was also an in-person hearing in Scarborough where there were probably many more.

One noticeable aspect is that while many people complained about the bite being taken out of Scarborough--Agincourt, I can't remember anyone complaining specifically about Wexford.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh man, the initial map last time is actually better than the final map.

[Krago]

I just noticed that Pickering--Brooklin was part of the initial proposal ten years ago.

Hope springs eternal.


Here is the link to all the Commissions from the 2012 redistribution:

https://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?document=home&lang=e


Here is the map comparing the 2003 ridings with the 2013 ridings:

https://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/map/pwt/pwt.html?lang=e&province=ON

[Hatman 🍁]

The proposed map last time as a whole was not as good as the final map. There is still hope.

[Krago]

Just for jots and tittles, what if the Ontario Commission decided not to cross Victoria Park Ave?

It could look something like this.





Brampton--Caledon   117,187

[Krago]

And for you Toronto NDP types, here's a close-up of the only riding you're interested in.

[adma]

Holy Rosemont-La Petite Patrie, Batman! ;-)

[toaster]

The Etobicoke North - Malton riding does make sense in terms of the communities of interest/demographics/SES here.  Is the commission not allowed to cross the 416 boundaries because of the legislation that forces Toronto (the city) to have the same boundaries municipally as these ridings?

[Krago]

The Etobicoke North - Malton riding does make sense in terms of the communities of interest/demographics/SES here.  Is the commission not allowed to cross the 416 boundaries because of the legislation that forces Toronto (the city) to have the same boundaries municipally as these ridings?

The Commissioners can do anything they want, as long as they don't mess with the Acadians.

[MB11]

I can’t see the photo Krago posted, but back in 2012, the Commission drew Mississauga as 6 ridings that were each 10-15% above the quota to preserve its Community of Interest. Because Mississauga’s population was stagnant, it’s ridings are now much closer to the quota and can be kept largely unchanged for the next 10 years, creating some nice continuity.

You’d imagine that the Commission could do something similar with Scarborough (5 ridings, each 5-10% above the quota), but the written submissions seem to suggest that high-rise developments will finally make Scarborough’s population non-stagnant and that there is an unusually high amount of census undercounting in Scarborough. Idk if that makes it too dissimilar to Mississauga 2012.

[Krago]

WHAT IF...

... the Ontario Boundaries Commission decides to let Northern Ontario keep its tenth seat?  Where can it squeeze an extra riding out of Southern Ontario?

Here is my proposal.  I'm sure those downtown Toronto members won't mind.

[MB11]

Comment 22 in the Toronto region is an interesting read that makes the case to reduce Toronto to 23 to bring Northern Ontario to 10. One way you can look at this (and the comment does this as well in part) is that 11 bordering ridings across North York, Northwestern Scarborough, and the Don Valley are all underpopulated. If you add them up, they are a combined -33.5% under the quota, which isn’t really enough to remove a riding, but if Northern Ontario is gonna keep 10 ridings, are you gonna be able to do any better?

[Krago]

16 more posts and you can see my beautiful maps.

Or send me a DM and I will email them to you.

[Krago]

I am using my 1,012th post to declare that my proposed electoral map for Canada has been re-opened to add the "Welcome Back Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing/Goodbye Toronto Centre" proposal.

https://www.bit.ly/Canada343

[toaster]

There are (northern) New Democrats in the north fighting to keep that 10th seat (which I assume is Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasin), a riding that makes absolutely no sense in terms of connections, communities of interest, No highway connections, just to keep an extra "safe" NDP seat is way too hyper partisan, sounds of gerrymandering.  And I'm an NDP supporter, usually.  Kap and Hearst should be in a riding with Timmins - these are communities of interest, they have nothing in common with Manitoulin Island, other than the fact that the commission created this absurd riding some time ago.

It shocks me to hear Charlie Angus fight so hard, when the majority of his residents in Timmins, would be better served by someone in a smaller (geographic) riding that could focus on the issues in the community.

[MB11]

Or Angus and fellow Northern MPs can get on a call for a few hours, and actually draw a set of 10 Northern Ontario ridings that don’t include Kapuskasing with Algoma/Manitoulin.

Or someone else if we can’t expect them to not just gerrymander districts that favour their incumbencies. I know MPs can make suggestions but idk if proposing a new map for an entire region goes too far.

[Krago]

Another version of Downtown Toronto for the "Northern Ontario 10" alternative.

Forest Hill and Chinatown are no longer split between ridings.  Better or worse?

[Hatman 🍁]

There are (northern) New Democrats in the north fighting to keep that 10th seat (which I assume is Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasin), a riding that makes absolutely no sense in terms of connections, communities of interest, No highway connections, just to keep an extra "safe" NDP seat is way too hyper partisan, sounds of gerrymandering.  And I'm an NDP supporter, usually.  Kap and Hearst should be in a riding with Timmins - these are communities of interest, they have nothing in common with Manitoulin Island, other than the fact that the commission created this absurd riding some time ago.

It shocks me to hear Charlie Angus fight so hard, when the majority of his residents in Timmins, would be better served by someone in a smaller (geographic) riding that could focus on the issues in the community.

No seat in the North is safe anymore, but I am betting Hughes will just run in the new Nickel Belt riding, and may even be favoured. Nickel Belt is usually the NDP's best riding provincially anyway.

[MB11]

There are (northern) New Democrats in the north fighting to keep that 10th seat (which I assume is Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasin), a riding that makes absolutely no sense in terms of connections, communities of interest, No highway connections, just to keep an extra "safe" NDP seat is way too hyper partisan, sounds of gerrymandering.  And I'm an NDP supporter, usually.  Kap and Hearst should be in a riding with Timmins - these are communities of interest, they have nothing in common with Manitoulin Island, other than the fact that the commission created this absurd riding some time ago.

It shocks me to hear Charlie Angus fight so hard, when the majority of his residents in Timmins, would be better served by someone in a smaller (geographic) riding that could focus on the issues in the community.

No seat in the North is safe anymore, but I am betting Hughes will just run in the new Nickel Belt riding, and may even be favoured. Nickel Belt is usually the NDP's best riding provincially anyway.

Checking in ridingbuilder, the NDP actually might pick up a seat until something makes people stop voting like in 2019 and 2021: the Nickel Belt and Cochrane-Timiskaming (yay for Angus) ridings are NDP and they would be the favourites to make a pickup in the Kiiwetinoong riding but that depends a lot on the candidate.

The Liberals meanwhile probably lose Rainy River (which picks up Conservative Kenora), Nickel Belt (which loses Liberal areas near North Bay and picks up NDP areas near and on Manitoulin), and even Sault Ste. Marie (more rural Conservative areas).

But yeah everything is within about 3000 votes except the Liberal stronghold of Superior North so run the best campaign and you’ll probably pick up the majority of the North.

[adma]

But yeah everything is within about 3000 votes except the Liberal stronghold of Superior North so run the best campaign and you’ll probably pick up the majority of the North.

And even TB-Superior North is more of a "Patty Hajdu" riding than anything; so even it should be considered "in play" in her presumed absence (or even not).  And remember: the provincial equivalent went from reelecting Mike Gravelle in '18 to relegating the open-seat Libs to 3rd in '22.