Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Pres Mike]

If I did the math right, Lula has the most votes directly casted for him than any other human in history right? This is his sixth president election stretching to 1989

Not so fun fact, runner up is Trump with 136 million votes between 2016 and 2020. Obama is third at 134 million

Putin has over 190 million in his four elections, depending on how much fraud you assume to be going on there.

I don’t think Putin counts because Russia’s elections weren’t fair or competitive

[Lief 🗽]

Everything is pointing to Romario being reelected for the senate in Rio de Janeiro. If PT hadn't run the Ceciliano guy, they could have won.

(Romario had 29%, Molon 21%, Ceciliano 12%)

They have runoffs for some elections but others are FPTP?

[jaichind]

Historically if Lula gets to the second round he always overperforms in the second round (1989 2002 2006).  

Usually candidates outperform their first round share in the second round, yes.

I mean relative to what vote share Lula would be expected to get given what other candidates got in the first round.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

If I did the math right, Lula has the most votes directly casted for him than any other human in history right? This is his sixth president election stretching to 1989

Not so fun fact, runner up is Trump with 136 million votes between 2016 and 2020. Obama is third at 134 million

Putin has over 190 million in his four elections, depending on how much fraud you assume to be going on there.

I don’t think Putin counts because Russia’s elections weren’t fair or competitive

Charles D.B. King still holds the all-time record for support by percentage of total electorate tbhimjao

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

95.04% Reporting

LULA- 53,533,173 (47.63%)
BOLSONARO- 49,319,108 (43.88%)

[Mike88]

Lula and Bolsonaro are now the most voted candidates in a 1st round in Brazilian history. Bolsonaro just surpassed his 2018 vote totals in the 1st round.

[Pivaru]

Everything is pointing to Romario being reelected for the senate in Rio de Janeiro. If PT hadn't run the Ceciliano guy, they could have won.

(Romario had 29%, Molon 21%, Ceciliano 12%)

They have runoffs for some elections but others are FPTP?

Yeah, only elections for the executive* there's a 2nd round, in congressional elections, there's only one FPTP race.

*for mayor it depends on the size of the city

[Crumpets]

Atlas-style

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Atlas-style

It feels very reminiscient of 2018, except with a few states flipped and the margins much stronger for the left/weaker for the right.

[If my soul was made of stone]

If I did the math right, Lula has the most votes directly casted for him than any other human in history right? This is his sixth president election stretching to 1989

Not so fun fact, runner up is Trump with 136 million votes between 2016 and 2020. Obama is third at 134 million

Putin has over 190 million in his four elections, depending on how much fraud you assume to be going on there.

I don’t think Putin counts because Russia’s elections weren’t fair or competitive

Charles D.B. King still holds the all-time record for support by percentage of total electorate tbhimjao

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

95.56% Reporting

LULA- 53,910,478 (47.69%)
BOLSONARO- 49,549,371 (43.83%)

[Crumpets]

Atlas-style

It feels very reminiscient of 2018, except with a few states flipped and the margins much stronger for the left/weaker for the right.

If anybody has state-by-state results for the first (or second) round of 2018, I can try to make an Atlas-style swing map to go with this.

[Pivaru]

Just looked at the Pernambuco numbers.

Marilia Arraes is really underperforming her polling numbers, only 23% of the vote (she had 38% in yesterday's polls). The second place is Raquel Lyra, from PSDB, with 21%, her husband died today, so that may have played a role.

On other news, Bolsonaro's chief of staff, Ciro Nogueira just mocked the polls on twitter and asked Bolsonaro voters to not answer them. Not surprised.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I expect a positive trading day in Brazil's equity and FX markets tomorrow.   The market would now expect Lula to shift to the Center given the overperformance by Bolsonaro and the Right forces overall.

I think it would be beneficial to your situation if you got turned into a farm animal by a witch.

Apparently the new Pinocchio movie significantly toned down the scene of the Pleasure Island Donkey scene .

[Matty]

Man, polling is a joke. A joke.

We are looking at a *8 point* polling miss in the Brazilian election

[Frodo]

Atlas-style

Presumably Lula da Silva is in red, and Jair Bolsonaro is in blue.    

[Crumpets]

Atlas-style

Presumably Lula da Silva is in red, and Jair Bolsonaro is in blue.    

Yep.

[Mike88]

Turnout isn't up. In fact, turnout had a slight drop in share of 0.6%, 79.1% this year, compared with the 79.7% in 2018.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

In  Sao Paulo.  It seems Tarcisio de Freitas is ahead of Fernando Haddad 44 to 34 even though Fernando Haddad was expected to win.
 

Yeah, I think the polls will end up being largely correct with regards to Lula’s percentage (although they’ve significantly underestimated Bolsonaro), but the state and congressional elections are seeming way to the right of the polls.

So basically, just like 2020 in the U.S. then?

Was listening to the 538 social media podcast episode yesterday. NY Times reporter Max Fisher described how a lot of people who watched non-political gaming related YouTube videos got sucked into Bolsonaro's 2018 online media environment through YouTube's algorithms. Doesn't sound too different from Gamergate and Whatsapp non-English misinformation proliferation in the States.

Atlas-style

There's something ominous about Bolsonaro (narrowly) winning Sao Paulo state.

[jaichind]

Man, polling is a joke. A joke.

We are looking at a *8 point* polling miss in the Brazilian election

To be fair Globe Elections UN final poll had a 4.2% lead for Lula which matches his current lead.  Perhaps Globe Elections UN is the Trafalgar of Brazil?

[jaichind]

Turnout isn't up. In fact, turnout had a slight drop in share of 0.6%, 79.1% this year, compared with the 79.7% in 2018.

What? Then how come we had massive lines at voting stations which led to a lower count speed?  I guess it is about the absolute number of voters?

[jaichind]

Gomes made a very very short statement to the press. He said he is “extremely worried” about what’s happening in the country, and asked for a few more hours so he can talk to friends and allies before speaking further.

[Mike88]

Turnout isn't up. In fact, turnout had a slight drop in share of 0.6%, 79.1% this year, compared with the 79.7% in 2018.

What? Then how come we had massive lines at voting stations which led to a lower count speed?  I guess it is about the absolute number of voters?

With just 3.58% left to count, there are just more 2 million voters that cast a ballot compared with 2018. I don't know, but, were there few voting precincts this year?

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro’s chief of staff Ciro Nogueira told the president’s supporters not to answer to polls in the second round. “After the scandal they committed, all voters of President Bolsonaro have only one answer to pollsters: Not to respond to any of them until the end of the election,” Nogueira said in a tweet.

This will make all second-round election polls useless.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

96.56% Reporting

LULA- 54,642,032 (47.83%)
BOLSONARO- 49,948,973 (43.72%)