Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

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54.59% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 29,079,829 (46.31%)
LULA- 28,175,139 (44.87%)

Ballsonaro lead down to ~4% in Amazonas with 64.3% in. Probably on track to win at this rate but still too early.

Haven't been following this, but I assume Lula can be expected to be more pro-Russia than Bolsonaro?

Nope:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-lula-says-zelenskiy-as-responsible-putin-ukraine-war-2022-05-04/

The preservation of (what is left of) the Amazon rainforest is a higher priority to me in this election than their stances on Ukraine in any case.  

The Amazon issue is so important that this is the first election I've ever supported a socialist, and not just weakly a la 'lesser of two evils' but strongly.

Neither Bolsonaro nor Lula seem to care about Ukraine very much. And why should they? They're not in NATO and it's on the other side of the planet. Brazil has about 1,000 bigger fish to fry.

1,000 bigger forests to fry.

who is on track to win? and win without a runoff?

Lula on track to win the first round but not likely to avoid a runoff.

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I expect a positive trading day in Brazil's equity and FX markets tomorrow.   The market would now expect Lula to shift to the Center given the overperformance by Bolsonaro and the Right forces overall.

I think it would be beneficial to your situation if you got turned into a farm animal by a witch.

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If I did the math right, Lula has the most votes directly casted for him than any other human in history right? This is his sixth president election stretching to 1989

Not so fun fact, runner up is Trump with 136 million votes between 2016 and 2020. Obama is third at 134 million

Putin has over 190 million in his four elections, depending on how much fraud you assume to be going on there.

I don’t think Putin counts because Russia’s elections weren’t fair or competitive

Charles D.B. King still holds the all-time record for support by percentage of total electorate tbhimjao

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Bolsonaro’s chief of staff Ciro Nogueira told the president’s supporters not to answer to polls in the second round. “After the scandal they committed, all voters of President Bolsonaro have only one answer to pollsters: Not to respond to any of them until the end of the election,” Nogueira said in a tweet.

This will make all second-round election polls useless.

Again, the whole "data blackout" of the Census had a big impact. The changes in the country, mainly in terms of religion, must be bigger than one may expect.

What % of Bolsonaro's voters are some kind of evangelical?

I don't know if there's any way to know this exactly, but Evangelicals in Brazil are way, way, way to the right of Catholics, that much is for sure.

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Who's voting Lula/right-wing parties for Congress?

I mean, it’s like how Rs, even known crazies, outperformed trump.

As HSTruman just remarked on Discord: "broke: eternal 2016 primary; woke: eternal 2020 general election"

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PATRIOTS IN CONTROL

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suspend democracy asap

How about no.

only someone who hates freedom would say no

Again with the personal dictionary.

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suspend democracy asap

How about no.

only someone who hates freedom would say no

The freedom to burn down ecological treasures, maybe.

He's a Rothbardian. He thinks that's what the term means.

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This is not a thread debating whether suspending elections is good or bad.

I agree; that shouldn't be a permissible subject of debate on this forum.

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Talked to a friend who is a Bolsonaro->Lula voter, he’s quite happy hearing the result

Interesting. What's his political evolution been like?

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What's stopping Jair from just throwing out the election results, it's not like he'd care all that much or the military would care.

The military has probably been made to care. Apparently Lloyd Austin has been on the phone with them constantly for months.

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I think the Americans here in this Forum knew 2 years ago what we are feeling now

We did--and as bad as things are in the United States right now, I think most of us are still very, very happy and relieved that things two years ago went as they did. Congratulations to you and to your country.

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My understanding from following this thread is it's Class + Race + Pentecostalism + Lula being from the Northeast + Bolsonaro being from Rio de Janeiro state

I thought Lula was from Sao Paulo, not from the Northeast?

He lives in Sao Paulo but his background is Northeastern and he's universally seen as fundamentally a Northeastern politician, in much the way that Woodrow Wilson was fundamentally a Southern politician despite having been Governor of New Jersey--or perhaps a somewhat more intense version of Obama's relationship with Hawaii, since Lula apparently left the Northeast very young.

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So, Bolsonaro may be silent and missing, but, the world moves on:

- Lula's campaign is already in contact to initiate the transition and talks with Bolsonaro's Chief of Staff have started;

- Bolsonaro's current VP, Hamilton Mourão, had a telephone conversation with VP elect Geraldo Alckmin in which Mourão expressed his availability to help in the transition and invited Alckmin to visit his office, Jaburu Palace;

Would it be fair to say that Mourão cuts a somewhat Pencean "terrible as well but not as completely narcissistic and divorced from reality as the top of the ticket" figure?

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What is "caste" being used to mean in this context? Is it what US observers of affairs Brazilian tend to call "race"?

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Brasilia's big rightwards swing - it used to vote to the left of the country as a whole - makes sense considering the caste (there isn't a better word for it, so it will serve) issue that has become such an important feature of Brazilian voting patterns in recent decades. It also lacks working class voters who are also higher up the caste tree (a demo that continues to be quite loyal to Lula it seems) and middle class voters who have sufficient liberal sensibilities to find the reality of Bolsonaro in power less appealing than sticking it to the PT again. Not surprising that it wouldn't have many of the first, but the latter is intriguing and probably could do with some sort of explanation. But in the end it makes sense from one angle: it's a dreadful city, so it is right that it has dreadful politics.

What is "caste" being used to mean in this context? Is it what US observers of affairs Brazilian tend to call "race"?

Probably. "Working class voters who are also higher up the caste tree" reads like "lower SES Brazilians with more European ancestry and more visible European features".

I'm curious because Brasilia seems to have similar racial demographics to Brazil as a whole, so if Al is referring to "race"/cor I'd love some elaboration.

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Returning to the subject of Brazil, so as not to get too far off topic. I think the left here follows the same path. Lula is the last bastion of the "deep left". The "new left" is copying the US/Europe model and its new leaderships are all like that.

However, as Brazilian demography is different, the result will be a massive loss of votes, as the majority of the Brazilian population is poor and does not have higher education. The right does not seem to have any desire to improve the educational level of Brazilians and the left without votes.

Which for me always raises the question: why? Why does the left in country after country keep doing this? What on earth makes left-wingers in places like Brazil think that it's a model that will succeed there when it's toxic even in the societies for which it was designed?

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Returning to the subject of Brazil, so as not to get too far off topic. I think the left here follows the same path. Lula is the last bastion of the "deep left". The "new left" is copying the US/Europe model and its new leaderships are all like that.

However, as Brazilian demography is different, the result will be a massive loss of votes, as the majority of the Brazilian population is poor and does not have higher education. The right does not seem to have any desire to improve the educational level of Brazilians and the left without votes.

Which for me always raises the question: why? Why does the left in country after country keep doing this? What on earth makes left-wingers in places like Brazil think that it's a model that will succeed there when it's toxic even in the societies for which it was designed?

The “left” isn’t one single entity that makes conscious decisions.

Of course it isn't, but there's still such a thing as a mass or collective will that be discussed and deferred to at least heuristically. If there weren't then there would be no point to democracy to begin with.

The thing about identity politics is that class/socioeconomic status/whatever you want to call it is itself an identity category and an awful lot of successful class-based politicking looks very much like politicking based on other types of identity groups, just with the particulars switched around (Lula literally telling people, correctly imo, that Bolsonaro didn't believe in their right to grill, for instance--Biden would throw out similar red meat in his two campaigns as Obama's running mate, but usually on the level of race, which is part of how he had so much credibility with black voters going into the 2020 primaries. People made fun of "they'll put y'all back in chains" when he said it at a rally in 2012, but it did seem to actually, you know, work). So a more precise question that my exasperation can be Brisker-methoded down to might be "why on earth is how much money someone has and whether or not they're able to afford a comfortable way of life becoming so much less salient as a form of identity politics even in extremely unequal and stratified parts of the world?"

You're correct to point out that the right is even more responsible for forcing the newer sets of "issues" down everyone's throat, though, and I would never intentionally suggest otherwise.

I don't think the left or the right is deliberately designed in any country; ideas spread when people sincerely believe them. (There are many explanations out there for why "new left" ideas might be spreading, but all of these explanations have to start out by recognizing that these ideas are in fact convincing to lots and lots of people).

The Brazilian left (and the American left, and the American right, and so on and so forth) is not capable of contorting itself to the best shape to check the Brazilian right; people within it are actually sincerely motivated by the ideas they hold.

I understand that, but you'd think the repeated failure of a certain type of idea to improve people's lives would eventually start to put new people off adopting it. Say what you will--and what I have!--of the Reagan-Clinton-Greenspan joyride of the late 1980s through mid-2000s, at least it meant that lots and lots of people my age and a little older had nice big fancy homes to grow up in.

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I don't think the left or the right is deliberately designed in any country; ideas spread when people sincerely believe them. (There are many explanations out there for why "new left" ideas might be spreading, but all of these explanations have to start out by recognizing that these ideas are in fact convincing to lots and lots of people).

The Brazilian left (and the American left, and the American right, and so on and so forth) is not capable of contorting itself to the best shape to check the Brazilian right; people within it are actually sincerely motivated by the ideas they hold.

I understand that, but you'd think the repeated failure of a certain type of idea to improve people's lives would eventually start to put new people off adopting it. Say what you will--and what I have!--of the Reagan-Clinton-Greenspan joyride of the late 1980s through mid-2000s, at least it meant that lots and lots of people my age and a little older had nice big fancy homes to grow up in.

I would think one of the things that the two of us would agree on is that ideas with very poor track records of improving peoples' lives keep being stubbornly believed in! Convincingness seems only very vaguely correlated with effectiveness, though I actually do think it's been getting more correlated over time since the Industrial Revolution. Actually -- although very slowly -- I think people do learn from history.

Fair enough. There's no surprise there, as Don Blankenship would say.

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I have my doubts the Biden Administration will extradite Bolsonaro, or if they are willing I highly suspect Bolsonaro is using the US as a transit point to flee elsewhere—most likely Israel.

There are unfortunately all too many world leaders right now of a sort who'd be willing to take in Jair Bolsonaro, world's nicest guy, whose life the Brazilian left (and center-left, and center, and a good chunk of the center-right for that matter) wants to ruin for no reason, but I agree that Bibi is one of the likeliest of a likely lot. He's also likelier than most to keep Bolsonaro in the lifestyle to which he has become accustomed.

Apparently Michelle Bolsonaro stayed in Brazil, so that marriage (outstanding Christian supreme gentlesir Jair's third) is probably over. I hope she goes up to Salvador de Bahia and shacks up with one of the Carnaval hunks.

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What will the first policy priorities of Lula Administration 2: Love Song of Vengeance be?

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Lula starts his 2nd day as president having SEVENTEEN meeting with international authorities who were present yesterday in his inauguration as president in Brasília.

Bolsonaro would barely work eight hours per week lmao

Lula’s agenda today:

9:30am - King Felipe VI (SPAIN)
10am - President Luis Arce (BOLIVIA)
10:30am - President Alberto Fernandez (ARGENTINA)
11am - President Guillermo Lasso (ECUADOR)
11:30am - President Gabriel Boric (CHILE)
12pm - President Marcelo Rebelo de Souza (PORTUGAL)
12:30pm - President Gustavo Petro (COLOMBIA)
13pm - President Iris Xiomara Castro (HONDURAS)
- Lunch break between 13:30 to 14:30
14:30pm - Vice-President Wang Qishan (CHINA)
15pm - President João Lourenço (ANGOLA)
15:30pm - Prime Minister Choguel Maiga (MALI)
16pm - President José Ramos-Horta (EAST TIMOR)
16:30pm - Vice-President Salvador Antonio Mesa (CUBA)
17pm - Minister Council President Luís Penaranda (PERU)
17:30pm - National Assembly President Jorge Rodrigues (VENEZUELA)

That’s the agenda released with 15 leaders, but Lula already had an unscheduled meeting with the GUINEA-BISSAU president at well. Since it’s being said the number of 17, I think there will be another non-scheduled meeting as well.

Naturally, there’s a larger presence of South American neighbors wanting to meet with Lula but it’s also cool to see Lusosphere present with Angola, Portugal, Guinea-Bissau and East Timor.

A tendency towards leftist (including far-left/left-authoritarian) leaders too, although that seems to just be a combination of South America's current cohort of presidents and China having sent the most senior dignitary of any of the major world powers. I don't think too much is to be read into it, especially since Bolsonaro was just about the furthest thing from a principled stalwart of liberal democracy on the world stage himself.

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What will the first policy priorities of Lula Administration 2: Love Song of Vengeance be?

Since the new elected Congress will inaugurate only on February 1st, Lula's first policies are acts which doesn't need Congress approval: repealing Bolsonaro's acts related to mining in indigenous lands in Amazon forest and related to weapons

Good. Bolsonaro's policies towards the Amazon made him possibly the most dangerous individual world leader since Hitler (which isn't necessarily the same thing as the morally worst on a personal level).

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It’s been revealed that the police found a draft order suspending the results of the election in Anderson Torres’s home when they arrested him two days ago.

They apprehended him? Good.