Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Crumpets]

Here's the swing map for 2018-2022 first round only, going by PT-Bolsonaro margin. Since it's first round only, it'll have some numbers skewed by non-top-tier candidates. Now that I have everything in Excel, I'll mess with the data a bit more later and see what else I can do, but I'm logging off for a few hours.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's the swing map for 2018-2022 first round only, going by PT-Bolsonaro margin. Since it's first round only, it'll have some numbers skewed by non-top-tier candidates. Now that I have everything in Excel, I'll mess with the data a bit more later and see what else I can do, but I'm logging off for a few hours.

Thank you for your hard work.

[Red Velvet]

98,91% counted

Lula 48,18%
Bolsonaro 43,42%

The interesting thing is that the polling wasn’t really off regarding Lula’s percentage at all! They predicted 50% and around 48,3% is within their 2% margin of error. We always said that whether this was going to be defined on 1st round or not would be tough.

What they DID get it wrong and underestimated was the Bolsonaro hidden support though. Be it because of outdated balances of class statistics or because Bolsonaro supporters are hostile to participating in polls, idk, but it’s clear this is a trend now for polling institutions to significantly underestimate the far-right support and they need to investigate better reasons on why this happens.

The 5% lead over Bolsonaro makes Lula the favorite and I guess he would get most of the Ciro and Tebet votes but that isn’t a safe thing at all. In the runoff campaign things get really ugly with dirty campaigning. It will be really close regardless of result and I think it’s hard to see anyone winning with more than 52-53% tbh.

Regardless, even if he wins, the congress completely sucks with this PL + UNIÃO domination. People would have to give up thinking about any sane and healthy stable government with this new composition. The center and center-right parties (where the hell is PSDB and MDB now?) have completely EVAPORATED to open space to full domination by these two parties that are a weird idea of Centrão with far-right people in it. The point of Lula winning at this point is simply stop Bolsonaro from doing it so and limiting damages.

[Logical]

What's the result for Congress?

[Pivaru]

In Rio Grande do Sul, the race is going to the second round, Onyx Lorenzoni (PL), a former Bolsonaro minister and Eduardo Leite (PSDB), the former governor who resigned to run for president, will advance. Leite only had 2000 more votes than the third place candidate.

If Leite wins, he'll be the only PSDB candidate in the country if I'm not mistaken.

[Pericles]

Can someone tell me where the votes for the other candidates are most likely to go? Bolsonaro being at 45% or going into the runoff just short of 50% are quite different results.

[Adam Griffin]

Bolsonaro's raw vote is higher than last time. Is this due to higher turnout (as a percentage) or is it because of population growth?

117.4m in the first round in 2018; we're on track for 123.8m (another ~900k to count) this time. Bolsonaro will probably do around 2m raw votes better out of 6m+ extra cast this time.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but as things stand it seems to me that Lula is likely to take the large majority of Ciro Gomes supporters and probably a handful / decent majority of Simone Tebet supporters who seem like uncontraversial social liberals.

Absolutely nothing should be taken for granted, obviously... But is there really any imaginable scenario where Bolosnaro would surge to win the second round? Isn't his turnout likely tapped out with his supporters trying to overwhelm the odds in the first round, whereas Lula supporters might have taken his win for granted and will come out in the second round?

What are the chances Lula actually improves in the second round by a few points and possibly even aims for 59 or dare I say 60 percent? If that is ultimately the case I think those of us on the Left will be able to look back and laugh at some of the trepidation and anxiety-ridden takes here.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Can someone tell me where the votes for the other candidates are most likely to go? Bolsonaro being at 45% or going into the runoff just short of 50% are quite different results.

Lula should definitely get most of the Gomes/PDT vote, Tebet/MDB vote might split roughly in half? Bolsonaro probably picks up the overwhelming majority of the União vote and presumably most of NOVO as well.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but as things stand it seems to me that Lula is likely to take the large majority of Ciro Gomes supporters and probably a handful / decent majority of Simone Tebet supporters who seem like uncontraversial social liberals.

Absolutely nothing should be taken for granted, obviously... But is there really any imaginable scenario where Bolosnaro would surge to win the second round? Isn't his turnout likely tapped out with his supporters trying to overwhelm the odds in the first round, whereas Lula supporters might have taken his win for granted and will come out in the second round?

What are the chances Lula actually improves in the second round by a few points and possibly even aims for 59 or dare I say 60 percent? If that is ultimately the case I think those of us on the Left will be able to look back and laugh at some of the trepidation and anxiety-ridden takes here.

Based on what we're seeing tonight, I would not bet on Lula at 59%, but something like 55% is feasible.

[Red Velvet]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but as things stand it seems to me that Lula is likely to take the large majority of Ciro Gomes supporters and probably a handful / decent majority of Simone Tebet supporters who seem like uncontraversial social liberals.

Absolutely nothing should be taken for granted, obviously... But is there really any imaginable scenario where Bolosnaro would surge to win the second round? Isn't his turnout likely tapped out with his supporters trying to overwhelm the odds in the first round, whereas Lula supporters might have taken his win for granted and will come out in the second round?

What are the chances Lula actually improves in the second round by a few points and possibly even aims for 59 or dare I say 60 percent? If that is ultimately the case I think those of us on the Left will be able to look back and laugh at some of the trepidation and anxiety-ridden takes here.

Unlikely doesn’t mean impossible. The path is hard for Bolsonaro but he can bet on aggressive campaigning focused on diminishing his rejection in the northeast.

It’s not just about Tebet and Ciro voters though, but bringing the non-voters in. You don’t know the profile of the people who didn’t appear, making then a wildcard.

[Red Velvet]

With 99,55% counted the Lula lead finally reaches 5%. Whoever said between 5% - 5,5% in the final result was spot on.

Lula 48,31%
Bolsonaro 43,30%

The polls weren’t THAT off regarding the presidential vote, as they predicted Lula with 50% and Bolsonaro in mid-to-high 30s percent. I think it’s less of a Bolsonaro sudden over-performance and more the pollsters failing to predict a real and fair statistic balance between society segments.

[Cortarán todas las flores, pero jamás detendrán la primavera]

Regardless, even if he wins, the congress completely sucks with this PL + UNIÃO domination. People would have to give up thinking about any sane and healthy stable government with this new composition. The center and center-right parties (where the hell is PSDB and MDB now?) have completely EVAPORATED to open space to full domination by these two parties that are a weird idea of Centrão with far-right people in it. The point of Lula winning at this point is simply stop Bolsonaro from doing it so and limiting damages.

That's what i was thinking, PSDB got obliterated and MDB isn't doing much better, and outside of the northeast PT and allies did very poorly on the legislative and gubernatorial elections. The senate elections in particular, the results of Paraíba an Rio Grande do Norte are eye catching.

[omar04]

Regardless, even if he wins, the congress completely sucks with this PL + UNIÃO domination. People would have to give up thinking about any sane and healthy stable government with this new composition. The center and center-right parties (where the hell is PSDB and MDB now?) have completely EVAPORATED to open space to full domination by these two parties that are a weird idea of Centrão with far-right people in it. The point of Lula winning at this point is simply stop Bolsonaro from doing it so and limiting damages.

That's what i was thinking, PSDB got obliterated and MDB isn't doing much better, and outside of the northeast PT and allies did very poorly on the legislative and gubernatorial elections. The senate elections in particular, the results of Paraíba an Rio Grande do Norte are eye catching.

What exactly happened in the congress? too much vote splitting on the left?

[they don't love you like i love you]

Who's voting Lula/right-wing parties for Congress?

[Vosem]

Who's voting Lula/right-wing parties for Congress?

Didn't all the polls show Lula doing far better than any other left-wing possibility? I think there are a number of people who basically support the Brazilian right but are willing to cross over for Lula specifically. Lula also played to the center pretty hard (he picked Geraldo Alckmin, the right-wing presidential candidate from 2006, as his running mate), and I don't know that PT or PT-associated candidates downballot would've done that.

[Red Velvet]

Regardless, even if he wins, the congress completely sucks with this PL + UNIÃO domination. People would have to give up thinking about any sane and healthy stable government with this new composition. The center and center-right parties (where the hell is PSDB and MDB now?) have completely EVAPORATED to open space to full domination by these two parties that are a weird idea of Centrão with far-right people in it. The point of Lula winning at this point is simply stop Bolsonaro from doing it so and limiting damages.

That's what i was thinking, PSDB got obliterated and MDB isn't doing much better, and outside of the northeast PT and allies did very poorly on the legislative and gubernatorial elections. The senate elections in particular, the results of Paraíba an Rio Grande do Norte are eye catching.

What exactly happened in the congress? too much vote splitting on the left?

The domestic races were clearly nationalized and that led to PL and UNIÃO victories in states Bolsonaro won while PT mostly won in the Northeast. Everyone else it’s like they just disappeared.

[Pivaru]

Omar Aziz, from PSD, has been reelected for his senate seat in Amazonas, narrowly defeating the Bolsonaro supported candidate. This was the last senate seat to be called.

[buritobr]

Something changed in the city of Rio de Janeiro
In the runoff between Dilma Rousseff and Aécio Neves, there was a classic class based polarization. Dilma won the poor neighborhoods in the north and west zone, Aécio won the rich neighborhoods in the south zone.
In 2022, it was different

[Logical]

Gap between Lula and Bolsonaro is over 6 million votes now.

[Pivaru]

There'll be a second round in Bahia between Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (UNIÃO). ACM is the former mayor of Salvador and had lead the polls until yesterday, but today, Jerônimo pulled ahead and got 49,3% of the votes, almost finishing the whole thing in the first round.

Only one more gubernatorial election to be called, in Maranhão, where Carlos Brandão (PSB), the incumbent governor is leading with 51% of the vote.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I think it's very important to zoom-out from the number-crunching and campaign minutiae when discussing the 1st round results:

• Some eight years ago, Dilma's government engaged in extremely stupid heterodox meddling in central bank operations right around the time that commodity prices fell off of a cliff. Brazil's economy suffered a massive increase in unemployment and a burst of inflation. It has yet to recover from this severe recession. People continue to talk about "nostalgia" for Lula's presidency but this period is remembered by far more voters and it will tend to be attributed to...the PT and even Lula.
• Subsequently, Dilma Rousseff was impeached from office on trumped-up charges that anyone reasonable would view as being a soft "coup d'etat". There, was quite literally, an orchestrated campaign against her and those behind the campaign imposed radical constitutional reforms, and austerity on Brazil.
• Shortly after this, Lula was barred from running for President and imprisoned as part of an orchestrated campaign to throw the election towards the right. He was released from prison three years ago.
• In the election that Lula was barred from running in, the left was reduced to a rump and Haddad was crushed by over a ten point margin against a candidate widely despised by Brazilians. Just about anyone else would have made the election close, Ciro Gomes could have defeated Bolsonaro.
• Two years ago, it was considered a "good performance" that Boulos lost Sao Paulo mayoral election by 20 points and that Manuela d'Avila lost by 10 points in Porto Alegre. This, more or less, was a repeat of Haddad's disastrous performance. Lula won both cities by 10 points tonight.

Lula and, by extension, PT, PSOL and associated allies have risen from the dead to remain the only relevant opposition to fascist-flavored right-wing populism in Brazil. Lula was in prison. He will probably be President. Anyone who fails to see this as one of history's great comebacks is far too focused on the present, cannot see the big picture.

The one caveat to keep in mind is that if Lula was allowed to run in 2018, all of this could have been avoided. He probably would have crushed Bolsonaro, albeit not to the extent that polls predicted. He probably would have been lauded for his response to the pandemic simply because he wouldn't have implied that people dying of COVID are congenital weaklings deserving of such a fate. He then would have likely sailed to an easy re-election, in spite of all of the recent turbulence in the world. The main actors in Brazil responsible for this nightmare are Sergio Moro and elements in the judiciary that are crooked and vile. Bolsonaro is horrible, yes, but he was enabled by them and likely couldn't have become President without them...

[2952-0-0]

What's the cause of this shift away from class-based voting? Are there cultural or demographic vectors that have become more salient, like in the rich world?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The updates have been getting a little better for Lula; still think decently good chance he's above 48.

I'd probably bet on something like 48.5, if I had to put a number on it.

I'm not gonna lie, I'm feeling pretty good about how this turned out given that I basically just looked at the shift that occurred from when ~50% of the vote was in to when 70% of the vote was in, looked at a map of what was still out, and went "Yeah I can probably just project that same shift forward"

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Who's voting Lula/right-wing parties for Congress?

I mean, it’s like how Rs, even known crazies, outperformed trump.