Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[jaichind]

Bolsonaro at 44.7% with 86% in.  The last 10% of the Brazil count is always brutal for the Right.  I figure that this means Bolsonaro will be at 43.1% at the end.  This would put Lula most likely around 48.3%

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

85.55% Reporting

LULA- 46,939,643 (46.64%)
BOLSONARO- 45,017,561 (44.73%)

Lula flipped Amazonas!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Lula has taken the lead in Amazonas

[Middle-aged Europe]

I see that a lot of people posting in this thread have never followed a Brazilian election before.

The takes are coming in HOT!

[jaichind]

I expect a positive trading day in Brazil's equity and FX markets tomorrow.   The market would now expect Lula to shift to the Center given the overperformance by Bolsonaro and the Right forces overall.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

88.55% Reporting

LULA- 48,982,465 (46.93%)
BOLSONARO- 46,425,262 (44.48%)

Luiz Ignacio Lula Da Silva, President of Brazil, January 1, 2023-December 31, 2030

I expect a positive trading day in Brazil's equity and FX markets tomorrow.   The market would now expect Lula to shift to the Center given the overperformance by Bolsonaro and the Right forces overall.

You waited 3:31:26 to bring up equity markets! Good job!

[Sestak]

Yeah Lula should easily break 48 at this point. May not even want to rule out 49 or better.

[Mike88]

Bolsonaro had 49,277,010 votes in the 1st round in 2018. With 88.55% counted, he's at 46,425,262 votes. Lula will end up at around 48.5%.

[Oryxslayer]

So I have been silently watching this thread for a a long time, but I don't know enough about Brazilian politics to think my voice was necessary. Frankly, I think a lot of people can learn from that statement.


However, I have a question. What do we think happened: The polls just overall being a bit S**t, Bolsonaro supporters being harder to reach (seemingly conflicts with the nature of the coalitions, but that was their campaigns take a while back), or just the Brazilian polling industries fascination with "excluding undecideds from the topline" presented a faulty picture of overall support?

[Pres Mike]

Yeah Lula should easily break 48 at this point. May not even want to rule out 49 or better.

But 50.01% is out?

[Pivaru]

Hamilton Mourão, the current vice president, has won a Senate seat in Rio Grande do Sul.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

90.26% Reporting

LULA- 50,181,166 (47.12%)
BOLSONARO- 46,425,262 (44.32%)

Lula has become the first person to win over 50,000,000 votes in the first round!

[Mike88]

Runoff between Tarcísio and Haddad in São Paulo. Tarcisio is ahead 42-35%, with almost 93% counted.

[Duke of York]

90.26% Reporting

LULA- 50,181,166 (47.12%)
BOLSONARO- 46,425,262 (44.32%)

Lula has become the first person to win over 50,000,000 votes in the first round!

Into the history books he will go. I hope he trounces Bolsonaro in the runoff.

[omar04]

So I have been silently watching this thread for a a long time, but I don't know enough about Brazilian politics to think my voice was necessary. Frankly, I think a lot of people can learn from that statement.


However, I have a question. What do we think happened: The polls just overall being a bit S**t, Bolsonaro supporters being harder to reach (seemingly conflicts with the nature of the coalitions, but that was their campaigns take a while back), or just the Brazilian polling industries fascination with "excluding undecideds from the topline" presented a faulty picture of overall support?

I would be skeptical of the "hard to reach" narrative too, polling in Brazil is kind of weird. There's both a lot of door to door and telephone calls as well as just asking people on the street (with some quotas). Bolsonaro was underestimated in 2018 iirc. https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2022/09/29/are-brazils-pollsters-right-about-the-presidential-election

[MABA 2020]

I see Bolsonaro is so desperate to be Trump he also has to overperform his polls, get some originality Jair!

But seriously is Lula expected to win a second round?

[Duke of York]

I see Bolsonaro is so desperate to be Trump he also has to overperform his polls, get some originality Jair!

But seriously is Lula expected to win a second round?

He is probably the favorite.

[WD]

Jaichind would sell his family into slavery if it meant a “positive trading day”.

[KaiserDave]

I expect a positive trading day in Brazil's equity and FX markets tomorrow.   The market would now expect Lula to shift to the Center given the overperformance by Bolsonaro and the Right forces overall.

God is unhappy with you

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

92.17% Reporting

LULA- 51,531,953 (47.34%)
BOLSONARO- 48,045,921 (44.13%)

[If my soul was made of stone]

Jaichind would sell his family into slavery if it meant a “positive trading day”.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I expect a positive trading day in Brazil's equity and FX markets tomorrow.   The market would now expect Lula to shift to the Center given the overperformance by Bolsonaro and the Right forces overall.

God is unhappy with you

God is concerned with how the volatility of equity markets and commodities futures will effect his 401k ofc

[Boobs]

Jaichind would sell his family into slavery if it meant a “positive trading day”.

You'd think that, for someone who has money dependent on elections, his analyses of them would be better.

[Pres Mike]

Bolsonaro at 44.7% with 86% in.  The last 10% of the Brazil count is always brutal for the Right.  I figure that this means Bolsonaro will be at 43.1% at the end.  This would put Lula most likely around 48.3%

What percentage of the last 10% is Lula expected to win

According to my math, he’d need 80% of that last 8% to be counted to make it 50.01

[omar04]

 92,63%

 47,39%
51.863.996 Lula


 44,09%
48.245.908 Bolsonaro