Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

Anyway, unlike the BAND debate where the 3rd candidates shined and Lula and Bolsonaro “lost”, I feel like Bolsonaro and Lula (even by not going) are the weak winners of this debate and the 3rd candidates looked like a joke this time, thanks to fake priest lowering the level of the discussion - which dumbed everyone down and naturally makes Bolsonaro look better.

Not that this SBT debate will influence anything like the previous BAND one that at least assured some small temporary growth for the 3rd candidates on the polls. Audience is bound to be much smaller, making this a nothing burguer.

[Red Velvet]

You compare the levels of the debates of today with the ones from 10-20 years ago and I start feeling we’re in the movie “Idiocracy” in fast forward.

You used to have only serious candidates on the debates and maybe one joke candidate for the comedic purposes. It worked! Nowadays, the joke candidates dominate and they include the actual president, while the serious options on the debate (Ciro and Simone Tebet) are a minority now and diminish their stature by participating in conversations with these people. Not their fault, but they looked ridiculous just by being there.

[Red Velvet]

I just read that this Kelmon priest guy is part of the integralist movement (ACTUAL old-school Brazilian fascism) and saw pictures of him in an integralist event.

Everyone who criticized Lula’s decision of not going flopped so hard lmao. It clearly ended up being one of the smartest campaign decisions. SBT trash TV inviting these types of people to talk on TV, doesn’t deserve any attention.

I trust Globo way more as serious TV channel to not call this Kelmo guy

[Pivaru]

I trust Globo way more as serious TV channel to not call this Kelmo guy

Pretty sure they are legally obligated to call him. Every party which has at least 5 representatives in congress has to be invited and his party, PTB, just barely makes the cut (they have exactly 5, 3 deputies and 2 senators). If we're being real here, that's really the only reason D'Avila and Thronicke are also invited for the debates.

I didn't watch today's debate but I assume the new priest guy must have just tried to help Bolsonaro, I mean, being rabid bolsonaristas is pretty much the only thing PTB has had going  for it for the past 4 years.

[buritobr]

I trust Globo way more as serious TV channel to not call this Kelmo guy

Pretty sure they are legally obligated to call him. Every party which has at least 5 representatives in congress has to be invited and his party, PTB, just barely makes the cut (they have exactly 5, 3 deputies and 2 senators). If we're being real here, that's really the only reason D'Avila and Thronicke are also invited for the debates.

I didn't watch today's debate but I assume the new priest guy must have just tried to help Bolsonaro, I mean, being rabid bolsonaristas is pretty much the only thing PTB has had going  for it for the past 4 years.

Yes. All the candidates of parties who have representatives in the House must be invited for the debates.

[buritobr]

Today, Lula's rally in the headquarters of the samba school Portela with mayor of Rio de Janeiro Eduardo Paes was overcrowded. Not all the people could get inside. Many people who attended the event could stay only at the streets around the samba school.

[Former President tack50]

Voting compass by Portuguese newspaper Observador:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-brasil-responda-ao-questionario-e-descubra-quais-os-candidatos-a-presidente-mais-proximos-de-si/

My results:

68% Lula da Silva
65% Simone Tebet
63% Ciro Gomes
35% Jair Bolsonaro

Late, but I got a fairly interesting result

64% Simone Tebet
64% Lula da Silva
61% Ciro Gomes
29% Jair Bolsonaro

Not surprised to have Bolsonaro so low but I'm surprised at the triple tie. I guess I'd end up voting Tebet round 1, Lula round 2? (I was also surprised Lula was marginally more economically conservative than Gomes, so I may end up going Lula twice as well if I was Brazilian)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My results were...weird.

Cyrus Gomes 61%
Simone Tebet 60%
Lula da Silva 60%
Jair Bolsonaro 58%

The high Bolsonaro score comes from the firmly pro-life answer I put, and probably agreement with some of the law-and-order proposals. I didn't pay too much attention to the weights either...

[buritobr]

In 2018, the most pro-Bolsonaro city was Nova Pádua, in Rio Grande do Sul. He had 93% in the runoff. This city was founded by Venetian immigrants in the late 19th century.

Today I saw that the right-wing alliance had more than 50% in Veneto in the Italian election.

Of course, it's impossible to explain the political view of the inhabitants of a city due to the immigrants of more than 100 years ago. But it's interesting to see these coincidences.

[Senator Incitatus]

Of course, it's impossible to explain the political view of the inhabitants of a city due to the immigrants of more than 100 years ago. But it's interesting to see these coincidences.

Strongly disagree. Most political trends are downstream of factors determined centuries ago, perhaps even at the foundation of this world. We are only beginning to understand this, but it is possible.

[Aurelius]

Of course, it's impossible to explain the political view of the inhabitants of a city due to the immigrants of more than 100 years ago. But it's interesting to see these coincidences.

Strongly disagree. Most political trends are downstream of factors determined centuries ago, perhaps even at the foundation of this world. We are only beginning to understand this, but it is possible.

Albion's Seed might be the most important book I've ever read.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The Amazon is the sole issue that affects people outside of Brazil, even though we should all hope they get the best policies domestically as well.

[DL]

In 2018, the most pro-Bolsonaro city was Nova Pádua, in Rio Grande do Sul. He had 93% in the runoff. This city was founded by Venetian immigrants in the late 19th century.

Today I saw that the right-wing alliance had more than 50% in Veneto in the Italian election.

Of course, it's impossible to explain the political view of the inhabitants of a city due to the immigrants of more than 100 years ago. But it's interesting to see these coincidences.

Not to belabor the point but I believe that Venice itself is quite centre left - the region of Veneto votes more for the right because of rural areas and smaller towns and who knows where exactly the immigrants to Brazil came from...

It would also be interesting to look at voting patterns in Nova Padua throughout the 20th and early 21st century and see if this has always been the case or if it was unique to last election.

I wonder if there are also towns in southern Brazil settled by German immigrants from left-leaning areas of Germany (e.g. the Ruhr) who tend to support Lula this time?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

LULA 85%
Gomes 80%
Tebet 65%
Bolsonaro 27%

Quelle surprise.

[buritobr]

Ipec today

The aligator's mouth is opening

[buritobr]

Almost all the immigrants who founded Nova Pádua-RS and most of the Italian immigrants in Brazil came not from Venice, but from the rural areas of the Veneto.
In the post WW2, Veneto was a Christian Democrat stronghold, then, a Berlusconi stronghold, and now, a FdI stronghold. I don't know about the politics of the Veneto in the late 19th century, but maybe, its population could be already conservative, and this ideology might have played some role in the political views of the Italian immigrants in Brazil.
There were many left-wing and right-wing politicians in Brazil who have Italian ancestry, but people with Italian ancestry in Brazil usually vote on the right of the average. People with German ancestry usually vote on the right of the average too. We can observe that municipalities with population with Italian and German ancestry in the South and Southeast vote on the right of the country. But this gap is not old. It became bigger after the 2006 realignment. These European ancrestry municipalities have average income higher than Brazilian average income.

[buritobr]

Results in Nova Padua-RS
This municipality became independent in 1992

1994 (1st round): Fernando Henrique Cardoso 32.7%, Lula 16.0%
1998 (1st round): Fernando Henrique Cardoso 62.2%, Lula 25.7%
2002: José Serra 65.4%, Lula 34.6%
2006: Geraldo Alckmin 83.3%, Lula 16.7%
2010: José Serra 77.8%, Dilma Rousseff 22.2%
2014: Aécio Neves 88.1%, Dilma Rousseff 11.9%
2018: Jair Bolsonaro 93.0%, Fernando Haddad 7.0%

We can see how right-wing is Nova Pádua. Lula lost the city even in 1994, 1998, 2002, when he won the state of Rio Grande do Sul

[buritobr]

Demographics of the latest Ipec Poll, September 25th-26th, 2022
gender, religion, region, color, income



Data missing in these tweets: education
Elementary: Lula 55%, Bolsonaro 26%
High School: Lula 45%, Bolsonaro 33%
College: Lula 42%, Bolsonaro 36%

[Mopsus]

Of course, it's impossible to explain the political view of the inhabitants of a city due to the immigrants of more than 100 years ago. But it's interesting to see these coincidences.

Strongly disagree. Most political trends are downstream of factors determined centuries ago, perhaps even at the foundation of this world. We are only beginning to understand this, but it is possible.

[RodPresident]

Voting compass by Portuguese newspaper Observador:

https://observador.pt/interativo/votometro-brasil-responda-ao-questionario-e-descubra-quais-os-candidatos-a-presidente-mais-proximos-de-si/

My results:

68% Lula da Silva
65% Simone Tebet
63% Ciro Gomes
35% Jair Bolsonaro

Late, but I got a fairly interesting result

64% Simone Tebet
64% Lula da Silva
61% Ciro Gomes
29% Jair Bolsonaro

Not surprised to have Bolsonaro so low but I'm surprised at the triple tie. I guess I'd end up voting Tebet round 1, Lula round 2? (I was also surprised Lula was marginally more economically conservative than Gomes, so I may end up going Lula twice as well if I was Brazilian)

I got
91% Ciro Gomes
88% Lula
66% Tebet
32% Bolsonaro

[Horus]

Lula - 75%
Gomes - 71%
Tebet - 67%
Bolsonaro - 41%

[LM Brazilian Citizen]

Luís Inácio Lula da Silva 80%
Ciro Gomes 78%
Simone Tebet 63%
Jair Bolsonaro 19%

[buritobr]

Average of the polls aggregated by newspaper Estado de São Paulo, Setember 27th 2022

[Red Velvet]

This last week I think the momentum is on Lula’s side because it’s when the “Voto útil” starts happening - with more voters feeling pressure to not “waste” their vote and end the election. That’s why he is showing last minute growth in the polls.

It has potential to be easy 1st round win if polls are right. But big deciding factor will be the level of abstention in the day. Polls work with the idea of the usual general abstention of 20% - 21%

Analysts say if abstention is higher than 21% then it’s bad sign for Lula and the 1st round win because it’s bound to be driven by uninterest in lower class segments - which is the most pro-Lula one as vote falls between class lines: Poor with Lula and Rich with Bolsonaro.

So that’s another interesting factor to target in Election Day as well. Better to have an abstention of 21% or lower for increased Lula chances.

[buritobr]

Ipec states today

President
São Paulo: Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 33%, Tebet 6%, Ciro 5%
Rio de Janeiro: Lula 42%, Bolsonaro 36%, Tebet 5%, Ciro 5%
Minas Gerais: Lula 49%, Bolsonaro 31%, Ciro 5%, Tebet 4%
Pernambuco: Lula 64%, Bolsonaro 23%, Ciro 4%, Tebet 2%
Distrito Federal: Bolsonaro 46%, Lula 32%, Ciro 7%, Tebet 6%

Governor
São Paulo: Haddad (PT) 34%, Tarcísio (Rep) 24%, Garcia (PSDB) 19%
Rio de Janeiro: Castro (PL) 38%, Freixo (PSB) 25%, Neves (PDT) 7%
Minas Gerais: Zema (Novo) 45%, Khalil (PSD) 34%
Pernambuco: Marília (SD) 34%, Raquel (PSDB) 15%, Danilo (PSB) 13%, Miguel (UB), Anderson (PL) 11%
Distrito Federal: Ibaneis (MDB) 43%, Grass (PV) 16%