Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Red Velvet]

I will work in the election as a table worker and I think it’s much more practical this electronic way of collecting the voter finger digitals to confirm their identity automatically at the time. They just put their finger in the machine of the table president and their identity is immediately confirmed!

I think not that long ago, you collected the finger digitals manually to put in the election book, which takes a long time. Ugh, I love these electronic voting machines, they facilitate everything so much. I can even leave the work right after the vote is closed because I don’t have to help count anything.

[buritobr]

These are the past results of votes of the Brazilians who live abroad. The votes in other countries are ~0.015% of the total votes. The number of votes is similar to a medium size city. There is not a big % of the Brazilian population living abroad. The absolute number of Brazilians living abroad is big because Brazilian population is big. And most of the Brazilians living abroad don't vote. They don't like to spend time to go to the ambassy or consulate.


In the countries in which there is an important number of Brazilians, the winners are usually:
anti-PT: USA, Canada, UK, Japan
PT: France, Argentina
swing: Portugal, Spain, Germany, Italy

There are very few Brazilians in other countries. You can ask "why does the right win in the communist China?". Because the few Brazilians who live their are engineers and businessmen.

Vote will start in Japan, Australia and New Zealand when it's still Saturday evening in Brazil

[Red Velvet]

Brazil is giant, the expat vote is practically irrelevant in the overall result. Still fun to see where immigrants in each country/city will go for.

Obviously immigrants in Japan and USA (especially in Florida) will be much more far-right leaning but will be fun to see if the margin from 2018 diminishes. In 2018 Bolsonaro got around 90% in Miami me thinks. Maybe now it can get closer to only 75% there voting for Bolsonaro?

Meanwhile will be fun to see results of places Haddad managed to win in 2018 like Paris and Berlin. Margins there could be huge for Lula this time.

But since most Brazilian immigrants are basically in USA  (hard right-wing) or Portugal (more swing average voter), I bet Bolsonaro still wins the exterior vote in the end, although to much diminished margins.

The rest of Europe could help push it to Lula though, but I’m not sure it will be sufficient to compensate all the USA + Japan vote. Could maybe be close but nahh.

[buritobr]

Bolsonaro had 90% in Miami-Florida in 2018

In 2014, Miami was the best city for Aécio Neves. He had 92%. Higher % than the one he had in Nova Pádua-RS, his best city in Brazil


Many Brazilians living in Japan are nissei and sansei and this community in Brazil votes on average on the right of most of the Brazilian population.

[Red Velvet]

Overall - 697k international voters

Biggest international electorates with eligible voters:

Top 3 Countries
1. USA: >183k
2. Portugal: >80k
3. Japan: >76k

After those three the most relevant are probably Italy, Germany, UK, Spain and France but I’m not sure about the order or the exact number.

Top 5 Cities
1. Lisbon (Portugal): >45k
2. Miami (USA): >40k
3. Boston (USA): >37k
4. Nagoya (Japan): >35k
5. London (UK): >34k

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro had 90% in Miami-Florida in 2018

In 2014, Miami was the best city for Aécio Neves. He had 92%. Higher % than the one he had in Nova Pádua-RS, his best city in Brazil

Many Brazilians living in Japan are nissei and sansei and this community in Brazil votes on average on the right of most of the Brazilian population.

Omg freaking Miami voting to the right of literally EVERY SINGLE CITY in actual Brazil in 2014 shouldn’t be a surprise knowing the types that frequent that city. Doesn’t happen only with the Brazilian expats there.

Still, it’s kinda overwhelming to really be able to understand of how extremely far-right the immigrant community in that city is. San Francisco sounds like a much better place to be based on how the immigrants there vote.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm nervous. Hopefully Lula can win outright tomorrow. Will the results be released slowly like they are in the US, or all at once?

[Pivaru]

I'm nervous. Hopefully Lula can win outright tomorrow. Will the results be released slowly like they are in the US, or all at once?

The results should be known pretty quickly, Ipec won't even make an exit poll this time around because it's just not worth it with how quickly the results come.

[DL]

There seems to be quite a large Brazilian population in Toronto now and as far as I can tell the vast majority seem HATE Bolsonaro and think he is a total moron and an embarrassment. Many left Brazil to get away from him...

[buritobr]

I'm nervous. Hopefully Lula can win outright tomorrow. Will the results be released slowly like they are in the US, or all at once?

Results will be released very quickly. Polls will close at 5pm at Brasília time zone, at 4pm at Mato Grosso time zone and at 3pm at Acre time zone, so that all the proceeding start at 5pm at Brasília time zone. I believe 90% of the precints will be already proceeded at 7pm at Brasília time zone.

[Mike88]

Overall - 697k international voters

Biggest international electorates with eligible voters:

Top 3 Countries
1. USA: >183k
2. Portugal: >80k
3. Japan: >76k

After those three the most relevant are probably Italy, Germany, UK, Spain and France but I’m not sure about the order or the exact number.

Top 5 Cities
1. Lisbon (Portugal): >45k
2. Miami (USA): >40k
3. Boston (USA): >37k
4. Nagoya (Japan): >35k
5. London (UK): >34k

Very curious to see how the growing Brazilian community in Portugal will vote. Some, according to the media around here, say that Bolsonaro may have an edge while others say it will very close.

[buritobr]

Overall - 697k international voters

Biggest international electorates with eligible voters:

Top 3 Countries
1. USA: >183k
2. Portugal: >80k
3. Japan: >76k

After those three the most relevant are probably Italy, Germany, UK, Spain and France but I’m not sure about the order or the exact number.

Top 5 Cities
1. Lisbon (Portugal): >45k
2. Miami (USA): >40k
3. Boston (USA): >37k
4. Nagoya (Japan): >35k
5. London (UK): >34k

Very curious to see how the growing Brazilian community in Portugal will vote. Some, according to the media around here, say that Bolsonaro may have an edge while others say it will very close.

In 2018, Bolsonaro had 65% of the valid vote in the runoff in Portugal, but there was a Bolsonaro wave that year. He won't repeat this margin.

[Red Velvet]

Overall - 697k international voters

Biggest international electorates with eligible voters:

Top 3 Countries
1. USA: >183k
2. Portugal: >80k
3. Japan: >76k

After those three the most relevant are probably Italy, Germany, UK, Spain and France but I’m not sure about the order or the exact number.

Top 5 Cities
1. Lisbon (Portugal): >45k
2. Miami (USA): >40k
3. Boston (USA): >37k
4. Nagoya (Japan): >35k
5. London (UK): >34k

Very curious to see how the growing Brazilian community in Portugal will vote. Some, according to the media around here, say that Bolsonaro may have an edge while others say it will very close.

I actually hope Portugal can push the vote to the left because of the top 3 countries with most eligible voters, it’s definitely the most favorable to Lula since US+Japan are hard conservative strongholds.

The immigrants in Europe tend to be more left-friendly, although maybe less so in Portugal than in most European countries. Which makes it more of a swing country, I guess.

In 2018 the Portuguese cities behaved similar to a Southeast big city like Rio or São Paulo, with Bolsonaro reaching around 65%. So if it follows those places again, it should have small victory margins for Lula, like 5% above Bolsonaro or so.

Will be fun to compare the behaviors from the immigrants with the people in the inside. The big shift in the Southeast region is real, let’s see if Portugal follows similar trend.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Will the votes come in Italy fast (a couple hours but still quick and efficient) or actually like in an hour?

[Red Velvet]

Brazilians are officially already voting! The vote has already started in New Zealand and possibly the results there will come out tomorrow morning when we actually start voting here lol

[buritobr]

Last polls

Ipec (valid vote)
This is the unique day in which the results in valid vote are more important: the eve of the vote

Governor
São Paulo: Haddad 41%, Tarcísio 31%, Garcia 22%
Rio de Janeiro: Castro 47%, Freixo 28%
Minas Gerais: Zema 50%, Khalil 42%

[buritobr]

Datafolha

Governor
São Paulo: Fernando Haddad 39%, Tarcísio Freitas 31%, Rodrigo Garcia 23%
Rio de Janeiro: Claudio Castro 44%, Marcelo Freixo 35%
Minas Gerais: Zema 50%, Khalil 42%
Bahia: ACM Neto 51%, Jerônimo 38%

Senator
São Paulo: Marcio França 45%, Astronauta Marcos Pontes 31%
Rio de Janeiro: Romário 35%, Molon 21%
Minas Gerais: Cleitinho 36%, Silveira 31%

[buritobr]

Brazilians are already voting, in Wellington, New Zealand

[buritobr]

Last Ipec national poll

Valid vote

Lula 51%
Jair Bolsonaro 37%
Ciro Gomes 5%
Simone Tebet 5%
Soraya Thronicke 1%
Filipe d'Ávila 1%

The others didn't reach 1%

[buritobr]

Datafolha Last Poll - valid vote

Lula 50%
Jair Bolsonaro 36%
Simone Tebet 6%
Ciro Gomes 5%
Soraya Thronicke 1%
Felipe d'Ávila 1%

It's very hard to predict if Lula will already win tomorrow or if there will be a runoff

[Not Me, Us]

Datafolha Last Poll - valid vote

Lula 50%
Jair Bolsonaro 36%
Simone Tebet 6%
Ciro Gomes 5%
Soraya Thronicke 1%
Felipe d'Ávila 1%

It's very hard to predict if Lula will already win tomorrow or if there will be a runoff

How long should we expect the count to take?

[Mike88]

Datafolha Last Poll - valid vote

Lula 50%
Jair Bolsonaro 36%
Simone Tebet 6%
Ciro Gomes 5%
Soraya Thronicke 1%
Felipe d'Ávila 1%

It's very hard to predict if Lula will already win tomorrow or if there will be a runoff

How long should we expect the count to take?

Like I believe it was posted above, the count will be very fast as votes are electronic. Polls close at 5pm and after 6pm, Brazil time, the picture will start to become definitive.

[Red Velvet]

Datafolha Rio de Janeiro Senate:

Romário (PL) 35%
Molon (PSB) 21%
Clarissa Garotinho (UB) 16%
André Ceciliano (PT) 10%

Now imagine if the left was minimally organized and PT didn’t run that Ceciliano guy to kill Molon’s chances.

Romário would still be the favorite but with a combined 31% it would be much more viable to reach him and take him out. It’s funny how much I completely hate PT in Rio because in São Paulo they would likely be my favorite party.

[Mike88]

From what I understand, only in Rio are PT and PSB divided, right? Across the rest of the country, they seem to be supporting the same Senate and Governor candidates.

[buritobr]

Last Ipec Polls for president in each state (from G1)



The map according to Ipec polls


The gray states are the ones in which there is "empate técnico" (technical tie?). The candidates are very close and their distance is inside the margin of error of the poll.