Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[DL]

PT still won DF in 2006 + 2010 though.

My personal stereotype of the Federal District is a place where a bunch of well-paid public sector/government employees live and generally indicate how the public employees relate with the government. But it probably is due to the factors burito mentions.

Low-key dream is to pass in one of those public exams and go live in Brasilia with a life-stable and well paid job. Even though it looks like a boring place to live, I would still be able to travel around on vacations with the salary tbh.

In most countries in the world, rabidly rightwing government tend to declare war on the public sector and are extremely unpopular among people who work for the government. Look at how solidly Democratic and anti-GOP the DC suburbs in Maryland and Virginia are...

[buritobr]

Datafolha states today

Governor
São Paulo: Haddad 34%, Tarcísio 23%, Garcia 19%
Rio de Janeiro: Castro 36%, Freixo 26%, Neves 8%
Minas Gerais: Zema 48%, Khalil 28%

Senator:
São Paulo: Marcio França 31%, Astronauta Marcos Pontes 19%, Janaína 5%
Rio de Janeiro: Romário 31%, Molon 12%, Clarissa 10%
Minas Gerais: Cleitinho 20%, Alexandre Silveira 13%

President
São Paulo: Lula 41%, Bolsonaro 34%, Ciro 7%, Simone 7%
Rio de Janeiro: Lula 40%, Bolsonaro 38%, Ciro 7%, Simone 5%
Minas Gerais: Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 33%, Ciro 6%, Simone 5%

[buritobr]

Lula is the candidate of the low income people, Bolsonaro is the candidate of the high income people

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

PT still won DF in 2006 + 2010 though.

My personal stereotype of the Federal District is a place where a bunch of well-paid public sector/government employees live and generally indicate how the public employees relate with the government. But it probably is due to the factors burito mentions.

Low-key dream is to pass in one of those public exams and go live in Brasilia with a life-stable and well paid job. Even though it looks like a boring place to live, I would still be able to travel around on vacations with the salary tbh.

In most countries in the world, rabidly rightwing government tend to declare war on the public sector and are extremely unpopular among people who work for the government. Look at how solidly Democratic and anti-GOP the DC suburbs in Maryland and Virginia are...

Brazil has a much larger Poor=Left Rich=Right gap then we have here in America. Government jobs are probably the largest individual employer of the latter.

[DL]

Lula is the candidate of the low income people, Bolsonaro is the candidate of the high income people

What this chart tells me is that Lula is the overwhelming choice of low income Brazilians and that people with higher incomes are split between Lula and Bolsonaro

[Red Velvet]

I cannot believe this exists but I found an actually funny and accurate gringo video about the Brazilian election. This is hilarious.

Honest Brazilian Government campaign ad, shared by Aussies:

https://www.twitter.com/thejuicemedia/status/1573101166635798528

[Red Velvet]

Lula is the candidate of the low income people, Bolsonaro is the candidate of the high income people

What this chart tells me is that Lula is the overwhelming choice of low income Brazilians and that people with higher incomes are split between Lula and Bolsonaro

https://www.twitter.com/OliverStuenkel/status/1570207269677064193
Oliver Stuenkel talks about the weirdness when international executives meet with Brazilian executives about the election because it’s very different logic than what happened in say, USA.

The harsh class divide that exists here and LatAm isn’t nearly a thing in US (where it’s substituted with a racial debate). Many executives in US supported Biden for example DESPITE promises of elevating corporate tax. Biden was the urban candidate. So they get surprised when meeting Brazilian executives and discovering that they broadly support Bolsonaro.

You’re right in your analysis btw. Bolsonaro tried to appeal to lower class segments but they did not move because Lula has an established wall there with the poorest that can’t be deconstructed.

Meanwhile the richest, which overwhelmingly backed Bolsonaro in 2018, are now more divided like you said. The big dumb elites, entrepreneurs, executives and people who just hate the poor in general still are on board with Bolsonaro but I think he gained some backlash amongst some higher education segments amongst the richest, especially with the female electorate, because of his actions and words during his government.

When he made fun of the pandemic for example, that was something that affected him a lot. Another recent example is when he called himself “Imbrochável” - unfloppable - on our 200th independence anniversary. That toxic masculinity stuff just doesn’t fare well with the women electorate.

Which basically means that besides not gaining any populist ground with the poor, who remain loyally solidified around Lula, he also lost a lot of wealthier upper class female voters in comparison to past election who just get really offended by the shocking stuff he says so naturally. He lost some ground with wealthier male voters too, but I argue this was a much stronger phenomenon with women. COVID dismissal and threats to democracy were general backlash, regardless of gender, but the attacks against female journalists and sexual references he makes have much more damage in female segments.

It will be much bigger humiliating defeat than Trump because of that since Trump and his populism at least had some level of penetration amongst the poorest and he could sell himself to them as the “anti-elite” candidate despite being a millionaire. Bolsonaro cannot in any shape sell himself to the poor in that way - he’s broadly seen as the elites candidate, exception only maybe being in some lower class suburbs of Rio de Janeiro where some people told me Lula was the candidate of the university students lmao

But as I said Rio behaves weirdly, especially after Bolsonaro surged - Lula is expected to perform better in the upper class neighborhoods here in Rio, in reversal to what generally happens in the rest of the country.

[buritobr]

PT still won DF in 2006 + 2010 though.

My personal stereotype of the Federal District is a place where a bunch of well-paid public sector/government employees live and generally indicate how the public employees relate with the government. But it probably is due to the factors burito mentions.

Low-key dream is to pass in one of those public exams and go live in Brasilia with a life-stable and well paid job. Even though it looks like a boring place to live, I would still be able to travel around on vacations with the salary tbh.

In most countries in the world, rabidly rightwing government tend to declare war on the public sector and are extremely unpopular among people who work for the government. Look at how solidly Democratic and anti-GOP the DC suburbs in Maryland and Virginia are...

Brazil has a much larger Poor=Left Rich=Right gap then we have here in America. Government jobs are probably the largest individual employer of the latter.

Until the 2006 realignment, PT was more the party of the educated people than the party of the low income people. Before the realignment public sector employees used to vote hardly for the PT and that's why Distrito Federal voted on the left of the country.
Nowadays, public sector employees, on average, still vote on the left of people from the private sector who have similar income, but not so hardly for PT as they used to vote in the past.
And Brasília doesn't have only public sector employees. The public sector employees go shopping, so, there are the shop owners. The public sector employees have saving account in the bank, so there are the managers of the bank agencies. The public sector employees go to make gym in their free time, so, there are the owners of the gym centers. And so on...

Besides the national realignment, there was an internal realginment in the Distrito Federal. Until 2002, the planned city, where most of the public sector employees live, used to vote on the left of the periphery. The planned city looks like an airplane, and its 2 parts are the northern wing and the southern wing. In 2006, 2010, 2014, the planned city voted on the right of the periphery. In 2018, the periphery voted on the right again. In 2018, Bolsonaro had 70% in the runoff in Distrito Federal. He had 61% in the northern wing, 65% in the southern wing and more than 70% in the periphery. As I told before, a large share of the population of the periphery is evangelic.

[Pres Mike]

What are the odds that Lula wins in first round?

What are the odds Bolso tries a coup?

What are the odds a coup works? Can the US do anything to stop it?

[Red Velvet]

What are the odds that Lula wins in first round?

What are the odds Bolso tries a coup?

What are the odds a coup works? Can the US do anything to stop it?

50/50 as of right now

Low but not nearly impossible I would guess, he won’t want to risk going to jail but he could be enough crazy/dumb to do it. Not much that he can do by himself only though.

Close to zero, the public and institutional mood is in a different direction, sick from Bolsonaro. US can immediately recognize the electoral results as soon as they come out and congratulate Lula as the elected president, that’s it.

[Pres Mike]

What are the odds that Lula wins in first round?

What are the odds Bolso tries a coup?

What are the odds a coup works? Can the US do anything to stop it?

Close to zero, the public and institutional mood is in a different direction, sick from Bolsonaro. US can immediately recognize the electoral results as soon as they come out and congratulate Lula as the elected president, that’s it.

Biden could withdraw the American ambassador. He could also sanction any military regime 

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

F**k Bolsonaro 'till infinity.

When I was younger (during the Lula years) I was actually fond of Brazil. But in more recent years, learning about the dark past of Brazilian history (especially towards Black Brazilians), the violence and widespread corruption, and leaders like Bolsonaro have turned me off from the country.

Beautiful country (nature & culture wise) but yeah................

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

F**k Bolsonaro 'till infinity.

When I was younger (during the Lula years) I was actually fond of Brazil. But in more recent years, learning about the dark past of Brazilian history (especially towards Black Brazilians), the violence and widespread corruption, and leaders like Bolsonaro have turned me off from the country.

Beautiful country (nature & culture wise) but yeah................

I mean, try not to forget that it's also still the country of all those people who were oppressed too, however. They have just as much right to lay ownership to their beautiful homeland as all the filthy POS who committed such atrocities.

[Red Velvet]

F**k Bolsonaro 'till infinity.

When I was younger (during the Lula years) I was actually fond of Brazil. But in more recent years, learning about the dark past of Brazilian history (especially towards Black Brazilians), the violence and widespread corruption, and leaders like Bolsonaro have turned me off from the country.

Beautiful country (nature & culture wise) but yeah................

I mean, try not to forget that it's also still the country of all those people who were oppressed too, however. They have just as much right to lay ownership to their beautiful homeland as all the filthy POS who committed such atrocities.

If dark past and clean history is also criteria, not many places really pass on that test lol

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

F**k Bolsonaro 'till infinity.

When I was younger (during the Lula years) I was actually fond of Brazil. But in more recent years, learning about the dark past of Brazilian history (especially towards Black Brazilians), the violence and widespread corruption, and leaders like Bolsonaro have turned me off from the country.

Beautiful country (nature & culture wise) but yeah................

I mean, try not to forget that it's also still the country of all those people who were oppressed too, however. They have just as much right to lay ownership to their beautiful homeland as all the filthy POS who committed such atrocities.

If dark past and clean history is also criteria, not many places really pass on that test lol

Brazil is currently in a very dark place. Killings-per-Arrest is currently 1,600 times higher in Brazil than the United States.

[Mike88]

So, tonight's debate, with Lula and Bolsonaro present, will go on as schedule?

[Red Velvet]

F**k Bolsonaro 'till infinity.

When I was younger (during the Lula years) I was actually fond of Brazil. But in more recent years, learning about the dark past of Brazilian history (especially towards Black Brazilians), the violence and widespread corruption, and leaders like Bolsonaro have turned me off from the country.

Beautiful country (nature & culture wise) but yeah................

I mean, try not to forget that it's also still the country of all those people who were oppressed too, however. They have just as much right to lay ownership to their beautiful homeland as all the filthy POS who committed such atrocities.

If dark past and clean history is also criteria, not many places really pass on that test lol

Brazil is currently in a very dark place. Killings-per-Arrest is currently 1,600 times higher in Brazil than the United States.

“Per Arrest”? What is this? In the US inflated for-business capitalist penitenciary system where it’s more game to find more and more people to arrest and be put in jail for the sake of corporate profit? LMAO

You want to compare police violence you can pretty well use the police murders numbers overall since our populations numbers are somewhat comparable and Brazil will already be much more violent than US without the need for using this “per arrest” thing to make you look much better when it’s precisely the inflated arrest thing that is the main problem in the USA. One single police operation inside a Rio favela to “search for drugs” is already is a mini-genocide to some degree. Watch Oscar-nominated “City of God” to have some idea of how it works.

Top 10 biggest annual police killings:
1. Philippines — 6,069+ (avg 2016-2021—includes only deaths during anti-drug operations)
2. Brazil — 5,804 (2019)
3. Venezuela — 5,287 (2018)
4. India — 1,731 (2019)
5. Syria — 1,497 (2019)
6. El Salvador — 1087 (2017)
7. United States — 946 (2020)
8. Nigeria — 841 (2018)
9. Afghanistan — 606 (2018)
10. Pakistan — 495 (2017)

Violence levels overall is high, including but not nearly just from police. Police is inherently violent regardless, but in more violent environments they naturally adapt proportionally for even their self-survival.

One necessary urgent policy for the matter is full decriminalization of abortion and most drugs. I don’t accept arguments that are against those two when their correlation with violence is proved at this point.

But as always, religion being put over science is the main problem stuck in the way. Necessary to have someone bold to tackle this stuff and who puts the F-ing crazy Christians in their place.

Unfortunately, I don’t see anyone doing this now or in the near future. Lula certainly ain’t it, he’s boring conciliatory moderate with center-left sprinkles who’s already kissing the evangelicals rugged ass in the name of national conciliation. When the left should be going for blood instead.

Abortion may come (limited to three months only though, not enough as I defend no limits at all) by the Supreme Court soon in order to follow Argentina and Colombia steps but the drugs debate is even more important. The war on drugs is undeniably a FAILURE on all aspects and every/any country that engages on it should rethink its priorities when talking about diminishing crime or violence, because it’s the opposite of everything they defend that is the actual path to solution.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I mean, try not to forget that it's also still the country of all those people who were oppressed too, however. They have just as much right to lay ownership to their beautiful homeland as all the filthy POS who committed such atrocities.

Yeah, I know.

If dark past and clean history is also criteria, not many places really pass on that test lol

Didn't say that many did. But Brazil still has a very dark PRESENT.

[Mike88]

So, tonight's debate, with Lula and Bolsonaro present, will go on as schedule?

From what I've read, Lula will not be present in the debate while Bolsonaro has confirmed his presence.

[buritobr]

Lula won't be in this debate. He will participate only in the debate at Globo TV on September 30th.

[crals]

Why will Lula not be present?

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

I am watching the presidential debate

[buritobr]

Why will Lula not be present?

Many candidates leading in the polls prefer not to go to debates.
They make a calculation: if they don't go, they will become the biggest target of criticism during the debate. But the audience of the debate becomes very small if they don't go. And this is good for the candidate ahead in the polls. If they go, they can answer the criticism. On the other hand, the audience becomes big. And a good performance of the opponent might boost him/her in the polls.

Fernando Collor avoided debates in 1989, Fernando Henrique Cardoso in 1998, Lula in 2006, Jair Bolsonaro in 2018.

[Red Velvet]

I am watching the presidential debate

Waste of time imo. I’m hearing it somewhat from the room next door and it feels so cheap and with lazy prepared lines. It’s clear that it’s all very rehearsed by them. And that random priest who I didn’t even know was a candidate manages to be way way cringier than the NOVO guy.

It actually makes me think Lula did right thing by not going and I want to vote more for him after looking at these other options. Trash politicians all around. Ciro and Simone are somewhat more serious but still look ridiculous just by participating on that stage.

[Red Velvet]

Also, these people are fully disconnected with Brazil. They sounded like they thought this was 2018 instead of 2022. I get it’s that the fake Priest made it look like a full circus and intoxicated the whole thing, but no one else did much favor to themselves in addition to that. The low level I see in politics nowadays is quite sad. It wasn’t like that in 00s, when the PSDB opposition sounded prepared and smart!

If I had absolutely no context to who these people were, I would think Bolsonaro was the better one by default, which is evidence of how everyone looked like a joke lol. Honestly, very smart decision of Lula to skip this sh**tshow and decide to go just to the Globo one next week. I’m sure the Globo final debate on Thursday will be much better (and get better audience) by just not inviting joke candidates to speak.

No one gives a f*** about corruption narratives anymore, damn it. I wanted to warn these candidates of that while hearing snippets of the debate. It’s sooo 2010s, drop the disk, it’s just obvious that the economic concerns are the main topic this elections for anyone who is minimally connected with reality.

The Bolsominions appropriated that morality rhetoric in 2018 and now people saw Bolsonaro be corrupt as hell and the polls still show Lula and Bolsonaro leading with >80% combined. No one cares! Even in 2010s it was mostly only a pretext just used to validate other kinds of dissatisfactions.

These third party nobodies hope they can break the polarization by screaming corruption to the top 2 candidates but no one really cares outside maybe some very few upper class people who didn’t lose their purchasing power in last four years and don’t really have ANY other thing to say they’re mad about.

It’s such a tired disk to not talk about actual proposals and hide behind some abstract unproved moral purity. It may stick in specific times to mobilize some bunch but people always eventually get reminded these random moral crusaders from Jânio to Collor to Bolsonaro only choose that rhetoric because there was nothing else possible in their favor.